Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news first from China.
In a 105-minute speech overnight, (here and here) Chinese President Xi highlighted the challenges and risks faced by his country and warned party members to brace for “dangerous storms” ahead. But by rallying around him, he promised they would be able to ride out those storms and guide the country to “incomparable glory”. He set a 27 year goal for China to dominate all aspects of global activity.
Away from political fantasy and more immediately, Chinese inflation data for September was released late on Friday. This was as expected at 2.8% and a small rise. The Chinese also reported that producer prices rose at only +0.9% in September from a year ago, a very low rate and mirroring the struggles the Chinese economy currently faces.
We were expecting China to release its September export and trade results, but it seems they have been delayed a day so as not to clash with the Party Congress's opening speech.
The central bank of Singapore tightened its monetary policy on Friday, the fifth time it has done so since October last year.
Across the Pacific, American retail sales were unchanged in September from August, but were +8.6% higher than the same month a year ago, only just keeping pace with inflation. It was a result that missed analysts' expectations, but is was car sales that drove the miss. Other than that, it beat expectations.
Business inventories rose quickly again, even if not as fast as expected. This is a growing problem as overall there is now +US$376 bln more in inventories than a year ago, or +18% more. However, it is fair to note that the stocks-to-sales ratio is just back to where it was a year ago.
It is also fair to note that the latest American consumer sentiment survey, this one from the University of Michigan, shows consumers are happier about their present situation, even if they are more concerned about the future prospects. This was a better result than expected.
In the UK, their new prime minister threw her finance minister (and friend) under the bus and scrapped her radical tax plan, all in an effort to save her position. It isn't clear yet whether the u-turn will be sufficient. It is up to her party members to decide that. Financial markets have already decided it isn't enough and she should resign, although that seems unlikely at this time.
Over the weekend, the Bank of England said clearly that they will respond to the public policy turmoil with sharply higher policy rates if the British Treasury can't get things back under control. The UK Government will release its revised-revised plan on October 31. Their central bank will respond on November 3. They are on a bit of a knife-edge there.
Elsewhere in Europe we might look at their inflation rate and worry that could possibly be our prospect. Open democracies, of which there are many in Europe, are really struggling with the inflation pressures that flow from the war on Ukraine. Inflation ranges from over 20% on the war's front lines in the Baltic states, to just 7% in "far away" Malta. Germany is over 10%, France is just +6%. The inflationary pressure are very real, and more than just for fuel now.
But how are the iconic autocrats handling these pressures?, you know, the ones with know-all tough-man presidents who don't think the laws of economics (supply & demand) don't apply to them, of if they do, they can bend them to their will. Well Hungary has September inflation at over +20% now and rising fast. Turkey has it over 80% and still rising. Autocracy isn't out-performing democracy in the economic management arena.
Autocrats are poor decision makers. The Q3 filings at the US Federal Election Commission shows that Donald Trump raised US$24 mln in the period, but to do that it cost $22 mln in fundraising expenses. The high-cost, low-margin fundraising came as Trump’s legal problems mounted.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.02%, unchanged since Saturday but up +14 bps in a week. This is its highest closing level since October 2008. The UST 2-10 rate curve is slightly less inverted at -47 bps. And their 1-5 curve is little-changed at -22 bps. And their 30 day-10yr curve is unchanged at +80 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down -2 bps at 4.06%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -2 bps at 2.71% and a one-month low. The New Zealand Govt ten year will start today at 4.52% and unchanged from Friday. But it is up +22 bps in a week.
So far, the 2022-Q3 earnings reports have been 'good' but not great. Normally (the five-year average) 77% of reporting companies beat eps estimates, but so far this season only 69% have done so. And very few of those are beating that standard by more than a whisker.
The price of gold will open today at US$1645/oz. This is up +US$2 from this time Saturday, but down -US$55 in a week.
And oil prices start today unchanged from Saturday at just on US$84.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$90.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$91.50/bbl and US$97/bbl respectively, so a -7.6% fall in a week.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 55.6 USc and unchanged. Against the Australian dollar we are still at 89.5 AUc. Against the euro we are at 57.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 66.5 and very little-changed from week-ago levels - or even two weeks ago.
The bitcoin price is now at US$19,139 and down -1% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has however been very low at just +/- 0.5%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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141 Comments
‘Autocrats are poor decision makers’ - possibly the quote of the year.
And quite true. They, and their brain washed cronies, believe all their own hype. Group think reigns supreme. And you thought NZ government departments were bad….
Lol - I'd argue that the western/democratic leaders are just as crazy as the 'nasty autocrats' at present housemouse. In the past I wouldn't have said this, but what I've witnessed the last few years I'd argue that our western leaders have completely lost the plot (I'm not arguing that autocrats haven't done the same...)
"They, and their brain washed cronies, believe all their own hype. Group think reigns supreme" - this perfectly sums up my experience working in Wellington.
Over average, things favour leadership you can replace over leadership that appoints itself.
The difference is in open democracies, you can see how bad your government can be. Government bureaucracy might suck, but it's more preferable to a death camp.
Orwell's 'Animal Farm' comes to mind when I think of the recent changes in democratic western governments, around the globe, over the recent past.
Key and Adern are included in this. As well as Trump, Biden etc.
On the death camp comment - the west has become the complete opposite where excessive rights and voice are given to fringe minorities...both crazy positions to take in their own right.
I think you're on the right track IO. Recent moves in democracies is to make the politicians less accountable to the people. This is most overtly being tried in NZ by trying to extend the electoral term, but has been started by the dumping of the privy council. There are likely other moves that could be interpreted as such like the growth of government departments in Wellington. But in the end we still get to vote......
The world desperately needs some competent leadership from the likes of the US and the EU. But we're not getting it. All they are doing are creating the conditions for war with Russia.
One might think this could be on purpose. End of our financial system and the elites need something/someone to blame so they can create and control the new system they want to put in place.
All animals are equal. Some animals are more equal than others.
Yes and you can boot them Out of power.
Whether their replacement are any better is another question…
Democracies do not lock countries down, disallow travel, break up freedom of speech, control the media, enforce mandatory vaccination, take your weapons away, disallow entry into a pub, force you into quarantine, make me wear a mask, make me participate in an experimental gene therapy. Your western world leaders are far from an open democracy.
F L,
"Democracies do not lock countries down, disallow travel" and you wouldn't have given a damn how many died i assume. How far does your dislike of rules go? Do you froth at the mouth over HAVING to drive on the left-hand side of the road? Do you go red with rage over not being allowed to smoke wherever you please? Does your blood pressure rise dangerously when you can't just take that nice shiny car in the showroom or your neighbour's driveway? Must have your passport to go abroad?-RIDICULOUS.
Just which-if any-rules are you prepared to accept?
I'm thinking you aren't an NZer, because at no time in my lifetime, that I can recall, has it been lawful to keep a firearm for use as a weapon. I'm pushing 70
We certainly could have done better. It was a major slip from our usual high standards.
Quite wrong, if looked at across the history of pandemics in the Western world. It doesn't take too much googling to find examples in prior epidemics of non-medical health responses to pandemics, including quarantines, mask wearing, travel disruption, and vaccine requirements.
A big difference today is the availability of social media to foster shared conspiracy theories, and even feelings of victimhood.
Your western world leaders are far from an open democracy.
Interesting...
Independent Observer
One of my mates told me recently, If you worry about the things you can't control, you are setting yourself up for a lifetime of frustration and misery
It sounds pretty good anyway. I think that I was having a winge at the time and he was sick of listening
Have you read the 7 Habits of Highly Effective People? It sounds like you're trying to explain Stephen Covey's model to me.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f6/84/43/f6844307b8268d2534a7b3e025a1564…
Worn that book out in a younger period of my life.
Worth a read if this concept is new to you.
I am still young at heart. Learning slowly and like a good soundbite.
The key is putting what you learn into action. Hint
So do you think your comment will control or influence my behaviour? (i.e. that is outside your control and you want to do so because often you don't like my comments) (hint - it won't).
It makes me laugh that you won't/don't see the irony and hypocrisy of that position :-)
All good though - have a read of Covey's work if you're still learning. It's a good book.
Lighten up and blow out some cobwebs
"If you worry about the things you can't control, you are setting yourself up for a lifetime of frustration and misery"
I'm glad my welfare concerns you so greatly :-)
Not in the slightest, I am only offering some life advice
I would love to see a move away from this blind left vs right thinking. How far right would a politician need to be before Key would vote against them? What does this say about the current National Party? Where have all the sensible people gone?
Waikatohome,
I agree. I found it sad though predictable that Key happily admitted that he would have voted for Trump and Bolsanaro. In other words, any corrupt thug from the Right would get his vote. Nobody should be so narrow in their 'thinking' whether from the Right or Left, but all too many are.
I could never belong to a political party and over my voting life have moved my vote several times.
It was hardly a surprise to see Key would have voted for Trump, but to find out he would also had probably voted for Bolsonaro was pretty sickening. Bolsonaro signaled well before his election the plans he had for the Amazon and the people who lived there as they have for centuries. In other words, he'd rather voted for genocide than vote left. That told me everything that I need to know about him and so many other right wingers.
Go www.politicalcompasss.org and learn how right and left should apply only to economic philosophy, authoritarianism and libertarianism are a different spectrum
Key was a good forex trader and political machinist, but he never gave the impression of being the deepest of thinkers on issues.
I recall hearing him say in a radio interview, "Well, it's right that when the market fails the taxpayer should step in and provide help, because when the market fails that's the time when the taxpayer should help." Only very slightly paraphrased. I was flabbergasted...it was more just an innate belief he seemed to be holding in privatising profits and socialising losses.
His responses typically start with him saying "Look".
"Look, at the end of the day it is what it is, and I'm pretty comfortable with it...and people will see that, SNAPPER!"
I found this article interesting. If Truss has done anything useful, it is to expose the fallacy of low tax trickle-down economics and the risks of pushing for unbridled economic growth. It is reassuring that the majority of people have a sense of fairness. People won't tolerate tax cuts for the wealthy during a cost of living crisis.
It is good to see the Conservatives moving back to the centre ground. I hope National and Act will learn something from this.
The reality is in NZ we have tax hikes by stealth during a cost of living crisis and frankly I don't see that as much of a moral high ground when it comes to who should lead our next government.
What about the tax rebates: the COL and fuel tax decrease. These are more targeted assistance than bracket changes would be (although I’m not sure they should be targeting fossil fuel use)
What indeed.
Perhaps a better question is "Would we have seen anything at all if Labour weren't taking a spanking in the polls?". My guess is 'non'. But I guess it just shows how flexible principles can be, when push comes to shove.
Neither changes the fact that indexing brackets for inflation is something that should be legislated for each year automatically and taken out of MPs hands for this exact reason.
It will just lead to the kind of government debt that is screwing over so many other countries. If Clark and Cullen had done that for example we would have gone into the GFC with massive government debt and been screwed. You can’t have your cake and eat it too: do you want health care and superannuation, both of which will continue to go up in cost at a much faster rate than the tax take will without bracket creep. Or high government debt that I’ll have to pay for? Or a big cut to government services?
No, it might lead to governments who think twice before vapourising hundreds of millions of dollars in centralisation costs for little to no measurable gain. The whole 'Guess you hate schools and hospitals' argument is so boring and not even relevant. I'm not arguing that tax shouldn't exist, just like I know you don't seriously think every tax dollar collected is wisely spent.
If governments are experiencing such high internal inflation that they need to take even more of citizen's pay increases just to make ends meet, then let's call it the tax hike that it is and be honest about it. And if letting people keep the inflation component that we keep taxing is going to bring the country to its knees like you claim then frankly the country is in far more trouble the Finance Minister is letting on and he should resign.
I'm not really sure how anyone can defend people on the minimum wage almost hitting a 30% bracket and argue that's definitely not a broken or incompetently run system. Throw in 12% student loan payments on top (that kick in at half the amount we decided a bare minimum full time wage to be, btw) and tell me that this is definitely for the greater good, and not the dumbest thing ever. Other countries manage to review their tax settings more than once a decade. The fact we've politicised something so basic is an outrage.
How do you know there is little gain from centralisation? Does it make sense to have DHBs scattered across the country each with a huge layer of management, their own IT systems, etc? 100s of millions of savings is quite likely IMO.
Polytechs? Auckland Council? INCIS? The Auckland Light Rail project? This country has a poor record of rationalising operations and delivering anywhere near the stated aims, timeframes or savings. That the benefits exist on paper doesn't always mean that's actually what's going to happen, and you can spend an awful lot of money finding that out the hard way. There may be hundreds of millions to be gained but you're going to spend billions getting make it happen (assuming you end up with something to show for it) then it's not the amazing Tour de France of operational priorities it seems, is it?
Let's also not forget that this is coming from the same section that managed to allocate $2b of mental health funding (at great fanfare and self-fawning) and generate almost nothing in return, to the Minister's stated concern.
I stand by my apprehension.
No centralisation does not imply efficiency at all, just look at Auckland Council.
Panuku - what a joke. 50 middle managers in a staff roll of just over 200
I think you'll find that because of the stupid council salary bands that the only way you can pay people decent salaries is by classifying them as managers, even if they only "manage" one other person.
It's completely misleading and stems from the irrational attitude that public servants should be paid less than the private sector.
Promise: More taxes = more schools & hospitals, better public transport, less crime
Reality:
- $51 million deciding a $785 million Auckland harbour cycle/walkway
- $2.5 billion for council "sweeteners" on Three Waters
- $350 million merging TVNZ and Radio NZ
- More cuts to Dunedin hospital capacity announced
- $35 million on consultant fees for Let’s Get Wellington Moving, when only $250,000 has been spent on actual construction
- $66m has been spent since 2017 on the first "round of talks" of the Auckland Light Rail project, of which $7.4m went into agency costs (NZTA, AT, MoT) and the remaining $58.6m was soaked up by consultants
- Further $50m has been set aside for funding the new ALR business case
No doubt taxes have been wasted. But the answer isn't to reduce taxes, the answer is to spend them wisely on things that improve society for all. Wouldn't it be great if our beaches were not covered in raw sewage every time it rains, if families didn't live in motels and people didn't have to wait for over 5 hours at A&E.
If we need to raise money to fund the legitimate operations of government (which all of those things are) then campaign on a platform of taxes to fund it, rather than relying people hard-up against increasing living costs to not notice bits of it being syphoned away by stealth.
If governments want the power to spend money raised through compulsion then they should have to state clearly what it's going to cost people to fund, not rely on pretending adding a tax bracket at 180k counts as 'tax reform'.
Uggh, the problem when making these lists is it totally ignores any increases in spending on things you'd otherwise agree with.
Even in our own lives, you'll find a mixture of sensible spending and several "what the hell did I spend money on this bollocks".
Sure, we all make mistakes with handling our own finances but this list shows more fiscal ineptitude and arrogance on the government's part than isolated mistakes. Pumping hundreds of millions into the economy on feel-good projects in a high inflationary environment is inexcusable.
In the middle of a 1-in-100-year health crisis, there is fiscal headroom for spending $11b on restacking health bureaucracy but general practices receive less than half of CPI in annual funding increase.
How many tasks does our government perform and what do they spend doing it?
If you had a list showing both sides, your bullet points end up being much harder to distinguish.
What if the biggest problem to be dealt with in current spend is actually inefficiency in existing bureaucracy?
What about the tax rebates: the COL and fuel tax decrease. These are more targeted assistance...
I see what you're saying, but I disagree. A progressive tax system should have people with the highest income paying the highest tax rate, but with bracket creep people with average jobs are paying what was the top tax bracket not so long ago. (The 38% for people with $1/4 million salaries gives the illusion that the brackets are fair but in my book makes the huge gap between 33% and 38% incomes look like a massive flat spot on the progression graph).
I agree, a revenue neutral tax reshape would be good, but as stated above we need some way for taxes to increase inline with government cost increases as the population ages. If people still died at 70 on average and we didn’t have an ageing population demographic then maybe inflation adjusted fixed tax rates would be good. But it’s much harder for governments to increase tax rates than it is to allow bracket creep, it’s a necessary stealth tax. Countries that try to keep their tax take at a stable percentage of income are going to fail badly in the next few decades.
Bracket creep is immoral when the government specifically requires RBNZ to maintain an inflationary environment.
Otherwise the target for inflation should be zero.
If they need to lift taxes, they should take it to the electorate and raise a democratic mandate. One based on what it's actually costing households, and not one that relies on eschewing basic tax administration.
Also, this overlooks that the Government is so precarious that it desperate needs that money betrays the fact that it hugely overspends in a way households - the people they are taking that extra money from simply can't. Households still need to make ends meet as well.
If the COL payment is an example on how well targeted rebates can be managed, I wouldn't have much hope.
Correct. Inflation is a tax on the poor.
The Govt is now receiving over $1B pa from its refusal to adjust tax thresholds in line with wage/salary inflation (dating back to National who reserved adjustment for election crumbs in 2017). Bracket creep is wage theft as much as is inflation.
Not just refusal, but also reversing the already-legislated cuts that National passed into law from 2017 as well.
Throw in those, the increased living costs and the cost of bracket-creep since and you're looking at a fair stack of cash.
Just to underwrite increasingly unaccountable and opaque centralisation of existent services into new jobs in Wellington with no tangible way to measure benefits or outcomes.
It's a bad deal, possibly the worst deal ever.
Are National saying how they will pay for it? Obviously their usual removal of NZ super fund payments, but what else?
I don't know, you'd have to ask the National Party. Having a fully-costed and better worked solution isn't a requirement to comment here.
Yeah but that's not actually what happened. It wasn't tax cuts that caused bond markets to react so poorly, it was unfunded tax cuts + expansionary fiscal policy (subsidise people's power bills) all off very high existing debt levels.
Not at all comparable to NZ...
I'd take it a step further - it was concerns about the Bank of England response to the Government's expansionary fiscal policy that spooked the markets. The response would have been the same if the Govt had decided to double benefit payments or introduce a UBI.
The only thing that trickles down is warm and yellow
I'll attempt a translation. Yields across all assets have followed interest rates down over four decades would be the background to this.
Yields are no longer sufficient to meet liabilities so leverage has been used to increase profits (as if this somehow magically fixes the problem).
Unfortunately leverage increases risk, but now the Treasury want to allow further leverage to increase so as to increase stability in the system. Rock and hard place.
Same as the problem in the UK, which in reality is a global problem. Need some growth to fix the problem, just need to find some, we'll look anywhere and try anything....
Following on from a question I asked a week or so ago, isn't this more like the Treasury checking with the banks to ensure they have sufficient liquidity? In the past some of the knowledgeable posters have indicated that bonds are a way of removing money from the "money go round" Which I struggled with as bonds still have to be paid back, and to me it made more sense to understand that this was the Government borrowing money from investors (as Government bonds are perceived to be the most secure). So if the Treasury is asking the banks if the bonds should be bought back is effectively asking them if they have enough money to keep the economy moving?
All smoke and mirrors if you ask me.
You are boiling it down to basics, which I think is the right thing to do. Debt, and debt servicing. I'm just putting into the longer term trend for context. I think in simplifying that further it is a matter of paying off old debt with new debt, a ponzi scheme. Only one of two options left, it is that or let asset values collapse and the credit system dry up. Not sure which way it will go yet.
Leverage is money creation, which is part of the first option. We've probably levered to the max already, hence these issues.
Isn't the article also saying the old debt, the old treasuries, are not desireable because they have devalued heavily in the face of new debt at a higher yield?
It is the wrong question to be asking, it is about soundness of the collateral. If some treasuries are no longer good capital, well that is Exters pyramid at work. Plus I think if you track it back far enough the lack of liquidity has been ongoing as outlined by Jeff Snider. That is a demand issue not a supply issue. Consumer demand dropping in a debt saturation scenario. So again wrong question when tackling this problem from the supply side.
Something I'll point out again. Normally interest rates would rise because of demand for money from business expansion. Not this time, it is borrowing to pay the debt. A pivot point, a seminal moment, is upon us.
this is the reason the inflation target is not set at 0. borrow 1bn today and in 15 years pay it back with 740 million.
Totally agree - it is all smoke and mirrors. Holding the masses at bay.
And your last point is true too, unless something changes radically.
27 years takes China to 2049, the hundred year anniversary of its current incarnation. They are nothing if not patient.
Good point that. Any citizen there 75 years old believes by the process of subjugation that there is no other way, because they have known no other way. That applies to the 85s as well. And as for what’s left of the rest of them, what was there before was the nightmare of the Japanese invasion followed by civil war. Takes a big mould to shape & condition 1. 45 bill people, but there it is.
Xi says China will seek to lift birth rate in face of ageing population
Still, the desire among Chinese women to have children is the lowest in the world, a survey published in February by think-tank YuWa Population Research showed.
Demographers say measures taken so far are not enough. They cite high education costs, low wages and notoriously long working hours as issues that still need to be addressed, along with COVID-19 policies and economic growth concerns.
Maybe they will force women to have children. Wouldn’t put it past them.
Those are the inherent dangers that can percolatate out of a totalitarian regime getting short of ideas, direction and principles. It has happened before of course. Less than 100 years ago. It was called Lebensborn.
Republican Party would approve that policy
A few years ago, I saw research that found that the reason Chinese women weren't getting married and having children is because so many had high education and the women wanted someone more highly educated as the father of their children. Society frowns upon a match that has a low paid man with a high paid woman.
A lot of people here wouldn't like that, but there is is. So what are the solutions if what I said above is a major driver? Prevent women from getting higher education? Force them to reproduce? Set up sperm banks and encourage solo motherhood?
This last one doesn't strike me as the Chinese way - perhaps someone with more China expertise could educate me.
What if no solution is needed ....?
If Xi says a solution is needed, a solution will be rolled out...
A few years ago the UK government estimated China's population would decrease by 70m people by 2050. I think it will be more than that. Possibly halve by 2070 if the current track continues.
Have said it all along
Women with the ability to determine their own futures, have control of their fertility will choose fewer births, later births and some will bypass they whole thing altogether. Incentives will change little, It will take force to change that, and that is the last straw for me.
Many US states are making inroads into women's reproductive choices as well.
Dangerous storms ahead... come to me little children
Taken straight from the ardern play book
Straight from the Facebook School for Credulous Thinking.
" ...iconic autocrats.."
Erdrogan, despite 80% inflation.
Orban, hybrid democracy.
Both are in NATO. "enemies" from within?
Putin, disastrous invasion, attacks on civilians have not helped his cause. Crying "nuclear" once too often. An air shield, hasten his defeat. A "no fly" zone is the end of his liberation.
Xi, leader of 1 billion. Covid, an opportune moment to close China, and control his opponents.
Isn't China a one party government so theoretically no opponents anyway.
Human psychology likes up be controlled. That's why we are still not a republic, correct?
Not everyone wants to be controlled.
A republic, without a monarch (or head of state). Not everyone wants to have the Treaty of Waitangi settled, and laid to rest.
Don't know what is correct.
We would come closer to being an autocracy if we became a republic than in the current arrangement.
We are not a republic because the majority instinctively understand that. If NZ did become a republic the political elites would run rough shod over the people too easily.
100%
I'm no politics or cultural expert but show me a more effective system than the monarchy and the British form of government that has 1000 years of history against it vs whatever BS excuses for a republic.
NZ is far too immature to be a republic. We don't have better ideas. We are not smarter. We do not have a unified culture and we do not have common values, therefore we would be ruled via proxy behind the fantastical veil of being a republic. As mentioned above, the vultures are waiting to strike on the soft white underbelly of the traditional systems as soon as they get the notification bell.
The traditional democratic systems are not without fault and they can't not be improved, but NZ is 13 going on 30 really.
I sense something positive about the NZD and inflation - if you invert the graph.
The end of that USD/NZD looks rather range bound. Maybe there is a "Bottom" in it?
Or will it (USD/NZD)take a brief pause,then continue it's lock step march down with a possible SP500 drop to 2400+/- over the next 18 months. Going to be very interesting to watch.
Hoping for this to not happen...
Comparisons of Liz Truss and the Iceberg Lettuce led me to look at UK prices.
https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/search?query=Lettuce&N=4294963453
Tescos. Ice lettuce UK58p = NZ$1.17.
New World Cromwell yesterday various lettuce. $4.49 - $4.99 - $5.49. (poor quality as well)
Yes. Different seasons. But do you ever see a NZ supermarket lettuce fo $1.17?
The worlds going to hell in a handcart and all some people can do is bang on about the cost of a lettuce. Nothing to fear, I expect the price of a lettuce to rise substantially if they have a "nuclear winter" in Europe.
Getting a job would do you a world of good Carlos.
Got one, work for myself part time, thereby I can avoid dealing directly with clowns, there are already plenty on here but at least you can keep them at a safe distance.
The job suggestion was for the purpose of increasing social interaction.
Point taken but honestly if you want a loyal friend, buy a dog.
I think you are missing the point. It’s not just the cost of a lettuce. It’s symbolic and representative. Healthy food is costing far too much.
Half a cabbage (and a small half at That) - $5!!!!!!
Not disagreeing that healthy food costs far too much, but healthy food is cheaper than junk food, on a per kg basis. People just need to be less lazy.
Potatoes $3.99 kg, Apples $3.50 kg. Bananas $3.65 kg.
Potato Chips $1.20 per 150gm ($8 per kg).
Potatoes are 770 calories per kg while potato chips are 5360 calories per kg making the latter far better value even at twice the price.
Yeah I brought this up yesterday. I guess a big difference is the proximity to countries with cheap labour and year round sunny weather. Someone said their lettuces come from Spain. But I wouldn’t be surprised if $1.17 is taken up just by the supermarket profit here in NZ.
I don't recommend eating lettuce.
We're also just coming out of winter, you expend a bit of fuel heating lettuce.
But yeah as Jimbo's said, comparisons to much larger population centres are often irrelevant.
It's way cheaper for migrant labour to make a pizza in Italy and ship it to NZ than to have a Kiwi make one and drive it across town.
Protect low paid local jobs!
Make everything cheaper!
You forgot to mention all the North African migrant slave labour.
It's more profitable for a Ghanese tomato farmer to work on subsidised tomato farms in Italy than at their home.
Then those tomatoes get canned, and shipped back to Ghana.
There's a fine balance between the number of slave labourers you allow in and excess immigration. The previous Italian govt went too far and got booted out.
Romaine lettuce is one of the most popular types of lettuce and is very easy to grow.
Give it a go maybe
Anyone on a benefit should be required to grow their own lettuce.... not weed
"But how are the iconic autocrats handling these pressures?, you know, the ones with know-all tough-man presidents who don't think the laws of economics (supply & demand) don't apply to them, of if they do, they can bend them to their will"
And yet in a bizarre twist, the worlds current economic problems have been created by western governments creating excess money supply in order to prevent defaulting on their sovereign debt obligations - because those democratic countries are trying to break the laws of economics and to live beyond their means (and using the strength of their currency and military to bully the rest of the world).
How strange. It makes you question who really are the dysfunctional bullies that are breaking the rules of economics....the nice democratic nations (printing too much money) or the nasty autocrats.
" the worlds current economic problems have been created by western governments creating excess money supply"
Without a doubt. And that kicked into gear in 1988, and has been ramped up to the uncontrollable level we see about us today. 'What can't go on, won't go on' - as we might be about to find out.
Yes and if you watch Putin's recent speeches, he understands all of this - in a similar way that Ray Dalio views the world order (if you've read his work on 'The Changing World Order').
So Putin is no fool economically - he can see what the west is doing and how it is at risk of imploding. Hence I think there was method in the madness of invading Ukraine - it was timing it at exactly the point he did when the Fed and the ECB made a huge monetary policy error in 2020-now.
Where he fell down was underestimating Ukraine's resolve and the West's disgust with him. I doubt he reckoned that Germany would do what it did with their gas contracts.
I'm not even sure he cares about the territorial gains in Ukraine. This is simply about dislodging the US dominance as the global reserve currency.
But from your earlier comment that you think he understands it all, 'd suggest that this is evidence he doesn't. The US$ is chosen to be the reserve currency due to the shear size of the US economy and the comparative stability of the Government and the rules around setting the value of the US$. Variation of the value of the US$ is more due to other currencies shifting relative to it than the other way around. No other currency in the world has that backing, or even comes close. The EU was formed in part to challenge that primacy with the Euro, but it takes time for the stability to be established across the board and the EU has been riven with too many of it's own issues to establish that.
Can I suggest two books murray?
1. The 4th Turning by Strauss/Howe
2. The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio.
Have a read of those, and copy your comment above then re-read after understanding those two books. And see if you still see the world in the same way.
"But from your earlier comment that you think he understands it all, 'd suggest that this is evidence he doesn't" - or this is how it is perceived by you with your own understanding of how the world works. I'm simply challenging that view - which is the view of western leadership, which is leading us to economic catastrophe and war. Is that really a wise view?
"But from your earlier comment that you think he understands it all, 'd suggest that this is evidence he doesn't"
Can you clarify this point - I don't understand how you jump to this conclusion without reasoning?
- the US is printing money as a desperate attempt to avoid defaulting on its debt obligations.
- the country has never been so politically divided - its as bad as it was during the civil war.
- only a few years ago extremists stormed their capital buildings to avoid a democratic process from taking place to elect a new leader.
Is this what you call a highly stable country? It many respects, the US is exceptionally unstable now. North Korea looks quite stable in comparison to the US (and I'm no fan of North Korea or Kim).
Correct, the USA is bankrupt. The division in the USA is Mainstreet verses Wall Street. When Wall Street collapses with the dollar, Mainstreet will be unaffected.
Ask yourself this why is the US$ retaining it's value? I do agree that the US is riven by many issues, not the least including their own political elitism and commensurate corruption which leads to poor budgetary management. Their accumulative deficits are huge. so why is the US$ so high? I suggest to you that because the US is a largely effective democracy, despite Trump (who really is just a demonstration of the gullibility of the US voters), with personal freedoms enshrined and jealously protected in the constitution, that people get the opportunity to build on and develop their talents in ways that are simply not allowed in autocracies or dictatorships. So despite what you are pointing out, as we all observe the apparent fallibilities of the US system, the underlying laws ensure it remains a stable country and democracy.
You can make all those points, but you tell me why the Euro, Yuan, Rupee or the Yen is not the reserve currency? While you might be able to present a case for why it shouldn't be the reserve currency, when clearly it is, then you need to look beyond your points to understand why.
The US isn't retaining its value. It's destroying its value.
The more comments you make the more strongly I recommend reading Ray Dalio's 'The Changing World Order'.
Have a look at Brent Johnsons dollar milkshake theory as well. That explains why the USD is rising, while they destroy the value of their currency. It's another sign of the beginning of the end.
The US was a great nation but like all great nations/empires, its reign only lasts so long. And typically reserve currency status lasts 75-100 years. And the US has held that position for 75 years or so (1946 - present). And it is currently showing all of the signs of a nation that is about to implode and risk losing that status.
I'm not saying this will happen this year or next year. But in the next 20 years there is a very high probability that the US no longer has the power over the world that we have witnessed WW2 to now. It simply cannot afford to with 140% debt to GDP (and its current deficit spending). Its living beyond its productive capacity - i.e. the thing that made it great in the first place it has destroyed through the creation of too much debt (which is exactly the thing that every global power does in the long run in order to fund its global dominance/military/geopolitical strategy). If the world moves away from trade using the USD, the US and its monetary policy are screwed (which is precisely what Putin is trying to achieve).
you're contradicting yourself. ..."the USD is rising, while they destroy the value of their currency".
But again ask why the value is rising - it's because of demand for it. Why? Yes the US is creating Billions if not trillions of it, which according to theory should as you suggest, be causing it's value to decrease. But that is not happening. Why? Again because of the demand for it. Why is there that demand?
I'm not disputing you point re civilisation. There are parallels in history which the US seems hell bent on following, to a degree. But i'd suggest that their competitors for power are likely to collapse before the US does because of those constitutionally enshrined protections.
America is full of fruit-loops for sure but don't think the few that stormed the Capital, Buildings represents all Americans - some have now realized they were duped. Unfortunately a majority on Americans don't care what happens beyond their state, let alone the rest of United States.
When end of times theology dominates there tends to be leakage to other parts of society - only time will tell but as Warren Buffet advises - don't bet against America (just yet)
He is losing on the field of war, never good for anything
Yes but he could be having a significant win on the currency/economic war. But we won't know the result of that for a few years.
Perhaps an appropriate comment from across The Ditch this morning:
I don’t know what to tell you. That is the most bearish-looking series of charts I have seen in a long time. If the multitude of critical support levels break, we are in free air for this end-of-cycle market to describe its own place in history.
And yet here we are with very low unemployment, reasonable GDP growth, record business profits, etc. Hard to know where this is heading really.
You can already see where it is going. We've had 'GDP growth' for some time, but with it came long commutes, hugely diminished access to things like local parks, beaches and the bits that make living in NZ worth doing and a blowout in accommodation costs.
'GDP growth' while we're all selling the basics to each other for more and more money and experiencing a huge walk-back in living standards is half the story. Apparently we were going to stop focusing in on GDP as a measure of wellbeing until things got pretty bad in that regard but here we are.
Created with no productivity other than excessive government spending. Debt fueled growth.
Folk too reliant on feeling rich by saddling younger following generations with massive debts. We called it the "wealth effect" but it was more a charade than an effect.
I don't know about anyone else, but ACT is spending a lot of money sending me ads on this website.
Same here. Guys, you're wasting your money. Hell would freeze over before I'm voting for you.
Like it or not, China will move into the number 1 spot. The danger is from the USA not willing to accept this as they implode from within. The next decade is going to be very different from what anyone alive has experienced before. Geographically its as good as it gets living in New Zealand if it all turns to custard. Hopefully everyone "Up North" forgets we exist, its worked pretty well so far.
Once again Carlos you don't quite get it - but at least you are consistant!
China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem
Slowing growth makes it harder for leaders to keep the public happy. Economic underperformance weakens the country against its rivals. Fearing upheaval, leaders crack down on dissent. They maneuver desperately to keep geopolitical enemies at bay. Expansion seems like a solution—a way of grabbing economic resources and markets, making nationalism a crutch for a wounded regime, and beating back foreign threats.
Believe what you like, China is unstoppable and the USA is about to self destruct. Mid terms next month will just be an indication of what's to come next election. Heaven help them if Trump runs again.
Roger that ..you keep an eye on the BTC price as well and let us know when it hits zero.
The Chinese can be stopped with a few well placed number 4's.
If Trump runs again the Republican primaries will be quite the spectacle, and if De Santis is winning the spectacle will likely be another "Stop the steal" sideshow. The challenge for the Republicans is the prospect of Trump splitting their vote if they don't kowtow to him.
"brace for “dangerous storms”"
He's back! Winston first indirectly said that a day or so ago. For all his love of the baubles of office, Selecting himself a cushy job. A lot better than Mahout though. Never having had any affect on immigration. Finding money for various policies. Well with the Labour and National offerings and considering ACT/Seymour is an up and coming Winston with mostly the wrong policies, I'm sorely tempted to stick to the devil I know if I vote at all.
Yes, it's gong to get entertaining. We are going to have to wait for a while to see what his line up will be, but there is no doubt he will call all parties to account. it's been long overdue.
I love the way he's quite disdainful of MSM reporters even though he needs them, especiaily the young ones.
More like he'll suck votes from TOP (for whom every vote is precious), hit 4% and we're left with the 2 major, 2 minor and 1 lilliputian party instead of injecting new life into party politics. Alternatively, he'll suck votes from TOP (for whom every vote is precious), squeak in on 5.1% and we'll be left with the 2 major, 2 minor, 1 lilliputian and 1 zombie party.
DemocracyNZ might surprise just yet. Out of MSM but doing the hard yards touring the country and talking to people in town halls. The associated VFF put 150 into councils in the local body elections, so it shows there might be some surprises come the general election.
Now there is a genuine reason to leave! Brock we can have a couple of beers on the plane and discuss how anti woke you are.
I wondered if this website would run an article on his return. I thought they wouldn’t and glad they haven’t (yet).
I wish he would just disappear.
I’m now picking Peters will hold the balance of power again this election. There are just so many “issues” for him to play on. Oldies won’t get anything from Nationals tax cuts, I’m sure Winston will come up with some more perks for them. Which side he will then go with is anyone’s guess. Maybe it’s Nationals turn, but who knows with him.
If that happened I would book flights promptly.
He’s actually not that bad in power, he normally doesn’t implement much of what he is elected to do thank god. He’s just a handbrake to the major parties mainly, which can be good depending on which major party you want in power.
✈️ ✅
Wouldn't there be more business in grievance blogging if Winston got in?
God I hope not. I truly hoped we had seen the last of him.
I have occasionally had some time for him. But only occasionally.
could politics get any worse here?
I guess we aren’t as much of a basket case as the UK…. Some consolation haha
Hey but he's got himself a choice gig in Ireland
Winston probably thinks folk forget ... He would be wrong ..His days of being Kingmaker are over ... Someone give him the knighthood he deserves for such an astonishing career. NZFirst are toast and Labour are deluded if they think having Winston dilute some of the voting pool will help. Arise Sir Winston....
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