Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets are still trying to absorb the implications of the updated American inflation track.
The widely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey in the US fell in November to its lowest level since July and by slightly more than expected. The current economic conditions index sank sharply and the expectations gauge tumbled too. Meanwhile, inflation expectations increased marginally for both the year ahead and the next 5 years. Of course, since this survey there have been elections and a moderating of a key inflation measure which have both energised financial market optimism.
That same survey reports about four in five consumers now describe buying conditions for homes as bad, a record in data going back to 1978.
The American Federal Budget repair continues. In October, the first month of their new budget year, they posted a deficit of -US$88 bln, about half the level of the same month a year ago. That was because tax collections for a swelling workforce and stronger company earnings were up +12%, and spending was down -9%. By any measure this is impressive.
Meanwhile, giant crypto platform FTX has been placed into bankruptcy, and Twitter's mercurial new boss has warned that it too faces bankruptcy - after he paid US$44 bln for the firm, and then promptly moved to wreck it. For sure it needed repair, but the toxic way he handled the takeover has pushed it close to the edge. Masters-of-the-Universe tech moguls look vulnerable these days.
The spreading tech-sector layoffs should be watched closely. The numbers involved are large, large enough to impact their overall labour market.
China has labour market issues too. We all know that their economic slowdown is stubbornly extending. And we know that their jobless rate is surprisingly high with the official level over 5%. But what might surprise is that their youth jobless rate is approaching 20%. A growing number are university graduates. A shackled private sector can no longer absorb the numbers coming on to their market and the risks of great social unease is high as a consequence.
India's industrial production rose by +3.1% in September from a year earlier, reversing a revised -0.7% decline in the previous month and easily beating market expectations of 2.0% growth.
In Europe, a fall in Germany's industrial production, and a retreat in the UK's overall economic activity is generating rising talk of a winter economic recession there. It has been expected since the start of the Russian invasion, but the reality of it is closer now - even if it probably won't be as deep as originally feared. But some think the economic storm will be fierce, and be global.
In Australia, the giant hack of the records in their Medibank Private company, and the subsequent ransoming of personal details on the dark web, has brought an official claim that the hackers are known Russians: REvil. Security experts believe cybergangs are scaling up their attacks and changing their behaviour as they gain a form of protection from Russian President Putin.
The UST 10yr yield started today at 3.81% and down 3 bps from this time yesterday. Recall, a week ago it was at 4.16% so a net -35 bps retreat since then. The UST 2-10 rate curve is more inverted at -52 bps. And their 1-5 curve is also more inverted at -67 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is much flatter at +25 bps. The Australian ten year bond is back up +11 bps at 3.70%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +3 bps at 2.75%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today down another sharp -18 bps at 4.29%.
In New York, Wall Street is holding on to the week's gains with the S&P500 up +0.9% late in their Friday session and heading for a +5.6% weekly rise. Overnight, European markets all finished with finished with +0.5% gains except London which dropped -0.8%. Paris finished the week up +3.4%. Frankfurt was up +6.2%. But London shed -0.2% for the week. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Friday session up +3.0% for a +3.25% weekly gain. Hong Kong rose a remarkable +7.7% yesterday capping a weekly gain at +8.1%. And Shanghai ended up +1.7% enabling it to post a modest +0.8% rise for the week. The ASX200 closed up a strong +2.8% for a weekly rise of +3.9% and the NZX50 was up +2.0% pushing it to a modest +0.7% weekly rise.
The price of gold will open today at US$1766/oz. This is up +US$16 from this time yesterday but down -US$9 for the week.
And oil prices start today +US$1 firmer than this time yesterday at just on US$87.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$94.50/bbl. These are both -US$4 lower than a week ago, but back to levels we had two weeks ago.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 61.1 USc and up another +1c since this time yesterday. For the week it has revalued by +3.1%; over the past month by an impressive +9.5%. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 59.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70 and +50 bps higher than this time yesterday. This broader measure is up only +0.4% for the week, but up +5.4% over the past month.
The bitcoin price is now at US$16,801 and down -5.2% since this time yesterday. And volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme again at just on +/- 5.4% with continuing instability.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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