Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that is generally down-beat today.
The global economic outlook is even gloomier than projected last month, the IMF told G-20 leaders, citing a steady worsening in PMI surveys in recent months. It blamed the darker outlook on tightening monetary policy triggered by persistently high and broad-based inflation, weak growth momentum in China, and ongoing supply disruptions, and food insecurity caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In the US, consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead increased to 5.9% in October from 5.4% in September. This comes after three consecutive months of a slowdown. Driving the rise was the expectation that petrol prices would rise further. But expectations about year-ahead price changes rose for food and for rent both remained very high. The RBNZ will release the results of its own survey of consumer expectations later today.
Also later today, the REINZ will release its October house price data and it is expected to be deflationary.
In China, the 16-point rescue of their property sector we noted yesterday is now official. It will be a costly affair, and there is no evidence it will actually stop falling house prices there. However, the currency markets liked the intervention, and the yuan has stopped falling.
In South Korea, we should keep an eye on a growing bond crisis there. Even AAA rated companies are having trouble raising debt financing. And an SOE tried to renege on a debt repayment, triggering a focus on the issue. Seoul's national government has stepped in to bring some order, but damage to these markets is impacting them as well, with CDS (credit default swap) premiums for sovereign South Korean debt now well over 60 bps and doubling in two months. (NZ CDS spreads are just over 20 bps.)
India's retail price inflation eased to 6.8% year-on-year in October, down from September's five-month high of 7.4%, helped by slower rises in food prices and a strong base effect. Still, the reading came in slightly above market expectations, and remained above the central bank's unusually wide 2%-6% target range
The latest data for EU industrial production is for September and that overnight data came in very much better than anyone expected, up +4.9% from a year ago and nearly double what was expected and the annual expansion in the prior month. The rise from August was also strong.
In Australia, flash flooding is causing extreme stress in rural NSW, with evacuations ordered in a number of centers. The impacts on the Australian east coast rural economy will be huge.
Perhaps there is somewhere in here we can note that since April 2022, the US central bank has reduced the size of its balance sheet by more than -US$¼ tln.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.87% and up +6 bps in Wall Street's Monday trade. The UST 2-10 rate curve is inverted at -53 bps. And their 1-5 curve is a little less inverted at -63 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is positive at +23 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up +5 bps at 3.73%. The China Govt ten year bond is up an unusual +10 bps at 2.85%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today up +5 bps at 4.34%.
Wall Street has opened its Monday equity session little changed. Overnight, European markets rose on average by about +0.5%. Perhaps we should also note that the Paris equity market is now larger than the post-Brexit London equity market. And that comes after last year Amsterdam earlier ousted London as the largest financial trading center in Europe. Yesterday, Tokyo closed down -1.1%. Hong Kong closed up a strong +1.7%. Shanghai missed out, closing down -0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Monday session down -0.2% and the NZX50 ended down -0.7%.
The price of gold will open today at US$1769/oz. This is down -US$2 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today -US$2 lower than this time yesterday at just on US$86/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$93/bbl. OPEC has trimmed its forecast for demand growth in their product, the fifth time in a row they have done that in 2022. It says supply is in surplus.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 61 USc and marginally softer. Against the Australian dollar we are also softer at 91 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 59 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70 and unchanged.
The bitcoin price is now at US$16,438 and a mere -0.7% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at under +/- 1.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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113 Comments
And we await labour's replacement of the RMA today they have flagged as cheaper, faster, better. Three prices of legislation replaced by 2, but wait there's more. The climate change peice in the hands of the green party. So still three. Any consultation this time? Cheaper, faster, better. Let's see how that plays out.
Who knows, perhaps, maybe. This government’s prowess at actual legislation has been questionable. Hence more than the usually expected activity in the courts. Three waters is apparently poised to be rushed through. If so, that will definitely end up in the courts
Waka Kohatu's " Road to Zero " campaign begins ... not rushed through ... cruised through at 30/60 or 80 kph ... this is just the beginning of JulieAnne Genter's grand plan to save us all ...
... $ millions have been spent on ads ... nothing much on actual median barriers or resurfacing the roads ... down down down those speed limits will come until zero deaths ... by which time I expect it'll be quicker to get out of the car and to walk ...
NZrs are not the world’s greatest drivers. Not by a long shot. Curled up in that is the word impatience and that word features world wide as a very significant contributor to all vehicle accidents, minor prangs through to fatalities. NZrs are not going to change their habits overnight and in fact I would suggest the displays of impatience are going to simply increase as length of drive time increases, distraction and frustration increase and concentration decreases. Road freighters will have some work to do scheduling their drivers for longer hours and of course up goes the cost of that delivery relatively.My prediction sadly is that these measures are more likely to increase accidents than reduce them.
Having driven back from Nelson yesterday I can verify that 99 % of drivers are perfectly fine ... very occasionally someone will misjudge an overtake ... and once in a while you'll witness something downright stupid ...
... the speed settings aren't the issue ...
Drivers abilities or attitudes are a big part of the solution ... plus some central median barriers ...
I've just spent a week or so driving around Southern Italy. Speed limits are merely vague suggestions, indicators are fanciful extras. What I did note is that there is a high degree of self responsibilty and the ability to make decisions for oneself without the need to be told what to do.
nzs problem is everyone expects to be saved from themselves, the more the govt saves us, the stupider we become.
Italy's road fatality rate is about the same as ours - which is pretty sad considering they have much better roads and much better PT.
"the more the govt saves us, the stupider we become" - yet we have about a third of the road fatalities we had in the 70's despite a much larger population.
I drove Qt to Chch and back for a few days last week. About 1200 kms all up with local travel as well. No issues at all. Genter's agenda is to get rid of personal, independent, anonymous travel. For some reason, her and her fellow travellers have a religious, theological, and irrational objection to it. Everything she pushes is to further her belief system. One step at a time to zero speed for private motor vehicles. Objections to any form of propulsion, no matter what it is. Zero alcohol in our blood or breath, for a week before and after driving. Added expenses for motorists, not directly related to the actual act of using our personal, independent, anonymous travelling vehicles. Just watch and listen to her. Every statement is to further these aims.
I think you need to get a better understanding of statistics! Just because you made one trip and didn't die that doesn't make everything OK. Try telling someone that has lost a family member (I know many) that there is no problem.
Genter's agenda is to make travel safe; maybe that is irrational in your mind but not in mine. I can't even let our kids walk to school because they have to cross a busy road with people zooming past at 60km/hr, if they make one mistake they are dead. We give way to much rights to cars to destroy our quality of life, and I say that as someone who drives a car.
Yes & no. I had to walk half an hour to primary school and twice cross one of Christchurch’s busiest roads. Could easily have made a mistake & been wiped out by a A40 Devon or similar at normal speed had I made a mistake & when I started biking then the danger obviously increased. It all really comes down to human misjudgment and/or error, the me first attitude and competitiveness don’t help much either. In NZ unfortunately far too many seem to attach little more importance to the actual necessities involved, the potential danger to them and others, than they do going for a stroll. My father was an air force pilot and like most pilots a very able natural driver. On commencing teaching me his first advice was never forget all the other drivers are trying to kill you, and those that wear hats when driving, well they are the professionals. Some years ago there was a theme of “defensive driving ” being promoted, i think there were even courses offered, which to me seemed to be an initiative of great merit, but it seems to have been short lived.
Defensive driving is still a very popular course.
It was quite a smart move from the Government really - they helped promote and create defensive driving courses, and then incentivised kids to do it by telling them they would have to wait longer to get their licence if they didn't take it. Anecdotally, myself and most of my friends did defensive driving courses about a decade ago when we were getting our licences. My younger cousin was just saying he and all his friends had finished defensive driving courses earlier this year. Still going strong.
Cars do not destroy our quality of life, they improve it. Crash rates should go down as natural selection takes care of the careless drivers.
Cars enhance quality of life in combination with other forms of transport. That's why places with multiple transport options have higher quality of life, while people dependent on - for example - Lincoln Road's exclusively car-oriented infrastructure receive worse quality of life.
Rick- prediction Lincoln Rd Christchurch will die as a shopping area - accidents will increase - driver will avoid and create new rat runs and buses will continue run practically empty - 17 tons of polluting waste.
Disgusting comment.
Not really how many idiots who crash these days were busy playing with their phone.
They might naturally select you to crash into one day. If they are also doing 120km/hr you are toast.
Great comment but actually he would be toast even if he were driving a modern car
at 80kmh an hour if someone crosses the centreline and crashes into him head on
At 50km/hr if someone blows through an intersection and hits him side on
If he's walking or cycling or scooting any idiot hitting him at over 30km/hr would be serious, at 50km/hr almost guaranteed to be serious or fatal
I don't know.
But I do know innocent people killed by under the influence drivers. The under the influence driver survived in one case.
Plenty are just older folk with worsening senses and reaction times, too. Folk born in the sixties or earlier, for example. Overrating their own driving skills.
Rick - insurers charge higher premiums for younger drivers and in high density areas - there is a reason - perhaps older folk just read conditions better so have less accidents and lower premiums is the result.
Agreed! Driving is not a right, it's a privilege, and it comes with social responsibility.
Unaware, careless, distracted, drunk, drugged, selfish - take your pick - drivers taking other people out with them is simply not acceptable.
You do realise that JAG hasn't been a Minister of Transport for over 2 years now?
" Road to Zero " is her idea ... it's still being implemented ... regardless that its impossible...
"Road to Zero is based on Vision Zero, a world-leading approach that refers to a societal commitment to work towards zero harm on the road. First launched in Sweden in 1997, it has been adopted by places like Norway, New York and London."
https://www.transport.govt.nz/area-of-interest/safety/road-to-zero/
Well thats a relief
I think the cultural problem we have as drivers is that we're *too* rule-bound, in the sense that people think they're driving well as long as they're not literally breaking a law. I get the sense that in other countries drivers are more willing to flout laws but also more willing to use common sense.
What we see in NZ is people overtaking at 100km/h on narrow goat tracks, absolutely insane stuff, because that's the speed limit; or aggressively tailgating cyclists, slower drivers, schoolchildren etc, because that's not technically breaking any law. The same attitude means you see wild road rage towards anyone who decides to drive below the speed limit.
In places like China you see some really wild driving but they're more switched on as well, and are willing to do things like 'drive slower when it's raining' or 'slow down because there are people on the road'.
Relieved I am not alone is seeing impatience, driving around Christchurch I often get passed by cars over the limit to catch them up at the traffic lights - perhaps they are rushing to a funeral - their own!
Agree Gummy. Waka Kotahi using the emotional issue of lives lost. They tried to put a blanket 80km limit across Northland but public outcry stopped progress temporarily.
Waka Kotahi says speed kills but at same time increase significant stretches of Waikato and BOP highways UPWARDS to 110km.
Speed in isolation is not the killer - speed and shitty roads does.
Waka Kotahi have a huge budget to pursue this idealogy and their management have almost unlimited resources while they remain way behind on installing safety barriers and other preventive measures.
There simply is not enough money for every road in NZ to be a motorway, and 100km/hr is a very high speed limit for a busy undivided road.
I'd agree. The drive to Napier form Taupo has been 80ks for a while and I certainly prefer the lower limit - it was insane before that, too many drivers trying to do 100k just because they were allowed to.
Many of us older regional folk grew up driving s##y roads and are quite comfortable doing so at speed. But a greater number are only use to the motorways systems and are don't have the experience to travel these other roads at 100k.
I drove that a few weeks ago, and I agree to an extent, although I did wonder if they could have 90kph? 80 seemed too slow on many stretches, yet 100 too fast
Hwy 6 between Nelson & Blenheim ( currently closed for slip removals ).tops at 90 kph ... which surprisingly is a nice cruising speed along the gentle rolling & turning roadway there ...
There are many sections where 100 is fine. They could have just had 80 zones in the most dangerous parts.
Agree. I guess they don’t want to chop and change too much, but they definitely could alternate a bit more. It actually felt really unsafe at times in the locations where it could easily be 100kph, I saw a dangerous overtaking manoeuvre borne out of a driver being frustrated / impatient sitting behind someone who was simply obeying the speed limit.
..I'll confess to letting a bit of 'creep' occur at the odd spot.
I’ve live in metro Melbourne now but grew up rurally. Some of the roads I learnt to drive on are rally stages now.
It takes me about 2-3 days to get used to the back roads again.
In South Korea all rural roads that aren't expressways have a max speed of 80 km/h. A good thing too because the reverse camber corners are terrifying, and Korean domestic market cars have rear drum brakes (or used to) and crappy suspension.
I have driven 1 lane country lanes in Ireland with 100k limits.
I've driven down the Greenhithe bridge at almost 200kph many years ago. Neither seems like the best idea, in retrospect.
220kmhr on the Southern Motorway back in the day on a bike, feels pretty quick at that speed. Thought I heard the ghost of Charles Darwin in my ear to slow down. Current bike does 289kmhr apparently, have decided not to check.
Hayabusa? Or the likes of an R1 / Ninja? Awesome bikes!
I knew a really lovely guy who had a hayabusa some years back. Sadly, he was hit and killed by a car driver. No fault of his own. He was fit, the car driver wasn't, but he was the one who didn't survive.
Same here. The driving there is good, appreciative & polite. Well out in the country at least. More maturity I suggest as being alert to other road users and cooperating accordingly. Bad wet weather rolling in continually too, makes people naturally think harder about what they are doing.
One of my biggest problems with the driving in NZ is the lack of following distance many drivers provide for. I have noticed that taxi and Uber drivers are especially bad at this, which is atrocious really given customer safety should be paramount. Don’t comply with the ‘two second rule’, even struggle to do one second sometimes.
You watch the car in front, about to turn for instance. Bet you nine times out of ten the brake light comes on before the indicator. The driver is thinking first of what they want to do and second about letting anyone else know about it. That really sums up the selfish, thoughtless attitude of too many NZ drivers.
Yep
The best part about following the 2/4s rule is that, on the Auckland motorways at least, people are forever cutting into your following gap.
Yes that is common and annoying.
Jimbo - UK B Road often 70MPH, more cars/more people in UK in smaller land area and less accidents per 1000 Miles than NZ - result its drivers not speed or road conditions that are the main problem.
It's not an ideology. It is evidence based safe system. The same sort of approach we all expect in things like airlines and trains. It's just self-entitled pricks think their freedom to drive like assholes Trump's everyone else's right to move around on public roads safely.
Road to zero assumes humans are all rational, defensive and sensible drivers who will listen, it's fatal flaw is the species it's behaviour is supposed to alter. The speed limits between Nelson and Picton have all been reduces to 60, 80, 90kmph, as well as multiple other reductions around the Nelson/Tasman region and the number of crashes seems to be increasing. High turnover at NZTA also as an indicator of their level of competency.
... several decades ago we had half the number of people on the roads , less powerful cars , and yet the road toll was double what it is now ...
NZTA can't prevent a tiny % of road users from being stupid or impatient ... it is human nature ...
Gummy are you trying to say the current speed limits are perfect? Seems unlikely considering we have 100km/hr almost everywhere despite the quality of the road or amount of traffic. Or are you saying we may as well not have speed limits at all as all crashes are caused by a tiny % of road users? Have you ever seen statistics on how likely you are to survive a crash at different speeds?
I think it is about time they matched the speed limit to the quality of the road, and that should work both ways with the decent roads getting a 110 speed limit.
No , I am not saying that ...
... the government , along with previous ones , has failed to properly fund road maintenance ... drivers are being demonised by them ... when in fact , the roads are in need of massive upgrade ...
Genter has an agenda : she hates cars ! ...
Genter hasn't been minister for over 2 years now. It's squarely a Labour initiative now.
But folk (like the AA guy the other night) whinge away about road taxes and whinge about the tax coming back on...and then whinge about potholes.
Fact is motoring is damn expensive and is only going up. Our roads will be rather empty within 5 years, likely less, as a result.
100kmh/60mph speed limits have been around since the 1960s, when the population was 2.5M and the road toll ~800
Improved vehicles have massively improved the road toll.
So it's about time speed limits went up.
But that won't happen because it's all about wrapping people in cotton wool these days. Whatever happened to personal responsibility?
Population increase is like inflation and the road toll is like a mortgage. Population growth is shrinking the debt away. All we need to do is increase the population to 15m people while keeping the road static, and we will indeed have a road to zero.
So we need to get back to 800/year dying?
People used to die much younger when we didn't have good health care, so lets also cut down our health expenses and get back to that level too!
A 50mph open road speed limit was in imposed in 1973. From 1975 until 1985 it was 80km/h
Cars may be more powerful now. But they’ve also got better break, handling, reliability and crash testing. Poor logic.
However, data released from the transport agency shows the speed reduction has been a success. Statistics released under the Official Information Act show there were 42 crashes on the strip of highway between the day the speed dropped, until November 30, 2021.The data for 2020 and 2021 was incomplete and the 2020 data was influenced by lockdown. Despite this, the statistics supplied show a noticeable reduction in serious and fatal crashes. There was only one crash that included serious injuries to the end of November last year, down from 10 in 2020 and five in 2019. No one died in crashes. Three people died on the road in 2020, and two in 2019. The number of crashes with minor injuries has remained about the same – 23 last year, 21 in 2020 and 24 in 2019. However, the number of non-injury crashes reduced to 16, down from 33 in 2020 and 63 in 2019.
Weird that there seems to be articles which contradict your view regarding the Blenheim - Nelson speed reduction. I wonder who is correct, the statistics or you?
It is 99% dumb driving that causes accidents. All mine have been caused by that. If a bad road has a 100kph limit, only a clown drives that fast. Etc, etc. Also what level of blood alcohol causes more deaths than all other levels put together? Zero, of course.
All of our species existence, we have applied acceptable risk to anything we do. Living in a cave was acceptable, as long as we had a night time fire at the mouth to deter predators. The same with driving. NZ citizens definition of acceptable risk is a lot different from that of a very small minority politician with a very obvious agenda. For some reason, a lot of Waka Kotahi's minions go along with her, instead of listening to the people who paid their wages all through level four Covid.
At some stage, we have to go back to the democratic system of government that we used to have. Listening to the voters instead of pushing secret, hidden, very much minority agendas on them.
It is 99% dumb driving that causes accidents.
It's called 'human error'. Unfortunately, no human is perfect so these errors happen across all fields and in people of all intelligence. The point of the speed reduction isn't primarily to reduce crashes, it's to reduce the harm caused when a crash happens (which it is seemingly doing according to those preliminary statistics).
If a bad road has a 100kph limit, only a clown drives that fast.
Lol, so you are confident that no NZ driver would be stupid enough to drive 100kmph on a 'bad road'!? That seems to imply that you believe we are all perfect drivers in this country... Lol, thanks for the laugh!!
A lot of people don't realize you have to be able to comfortably stop within the clear distance ahead, obviously including reaction time.Which could mean around 100m, more if wet.
100kph signs, eg in Northland at the start of windy dirt roads, the Wainui Rd at Tauranga bay and others are a waste of signage and reflect complete Waka Kotahi idiocy, as do 80kph signs popping up just before major intersections.
Exactly, see my point further up on following distance. People are pretty dumb to be honest if they don’t understand the importance of safe following distance! Unfortunately from what I see many of the offenders are immigrants from a certain part of the world. Not saying NZ born drivers are perfect, far from it, but a large proportion of immigrants from a certain part of the world seem to have very little grasp of safe following distance. I think far more education is required on this, shouldn’t be needed but it is.
Drove a lot in the USA. I95 & similar. The drivers naturally space their vehicles at safe distances and stay that way. Once made a mistake on the NJ Turnpike ended up in the section for the big trucks. Just the same, cruised along quite easily amongst them all. The thing is in those big populations on the big roads it’s in everybody’s interests, for traffic flow and safety, to be cooperative with one another.
Yes I have had good driving experiences there too.
And yes it is all about risk assessment. Our appetite for risk is continually going down, we all want to live longer, our laws should reflect that in a democracy.
"It is 99% dumb driving that causes accidents" - I'd guess vehicle malfunction is probably more than 1%. But yes most accidents are caused by people making mistakes, should they lose their lives due to that (and the people they crash into)? If both cars are doing 80km/hr and one crosses the centre line because they are texting or some other stupid thing, there is a significantly higher chance of people surviving than if they are both doing 100km/hr
"Road to zero assumes humans are all rational, defensive and sensible drivers who will listen"
Interesting 1234 - This is the exact opposite of what road to zero assumes. You're making an absolute tool of yourself. Road to Zero assumes that people make mistakes and we should design a system that means that when you do make a mistake you or your loved ones should not pay with your life.
Loving the expert opinion on road safety from people who think that because they have driven a car they understand how to design a safe road system. I've flown in a plane before but I would have to an absolute tool to think that qualifies me to talk about airline and pilot safety systems with any form of authority.
So, "just the little one today" actually meant the lower speed limits.....
... a little more next year ... slowly slowly those speed limits will fall ... little by little so will dont notice that we're being played for fools by the government ( Genter ! ) & their lackeys , NZTA ..
Genter is not in the government dude.
Do I detect a note of scepticism DB?
You are right, these are almost exactly the words (cheaper, faster, etc) that Labour PM Geof Palmer used when he introduced the RMA c 1990. When National came to office and to their eternal shame, they carried the Bill over and enacted it in 1991. And we all now know how cheap and fast it is to get approvals under that Act !
I haven't seen the new replacement Bill but one can confidentially predict that it will be the usual lazy legislation we have come to expect from all sides of our "House of Representatives",.,,,ie a purpose, (on which the rest of the regulation will hang ) of a vague, undefined, but "inspirational" wording. Add a sprinkling of again undefined words through the sections,...like, "significant",..."of importance",...plus the usual Manglish wording to show that we are all acknowledging the priority of our Tangata Whenua as the favored group.
It is no coincidence that this trend of legislation spouting lovely sentiments but basically allowing our civil servants to fill in all the dots, has created an industry of consultants and "experts" to be consulted at every turn.
No wonder our statistics of actual productive activities has been on a declining slope!
In Australia, flash flooding is causing extreme stress in rural NSW, with evacuations ordered in a number of centers. The impacts on the Australian east coast rural economy will be huge.
Perhaps there is somewhere in here we can note that since April 2022, the US central bank
Lots of crops grown there, potential for more food inflation...
Raising interest rates will fix the inflation. Some of you will starve but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
Likewise in the recent floods in regional Victoria on the border with NSW, many crops ruined
It blamed the darker outlook on tightening monetary policy triggered by persistently high and broad-based inflation, weak growth momentum in China, and ongoing supply disruptions, and food insecurity caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
tl;dr: this is all either everybody else's fault, or due to forces beyond our control.
If it's good enough for Robbo & Adrian to blame Putin , it's good enough for the IMF to follow their lead ... as per usual , we are leading the world ...
Yes, well remember how NZ was the world leader in lockdown and covid elimination, which was true and admirable at the time. The government though trumpeted this achievement at every opportunity, ad nauseam. Then subsequently, when NZ was near to the rear in vaccine roll out, not a whisper was heard. They sure pick their horses for courses.
... now we're leading the world in animal fart taxes ... and in carbon offsets ... farms will be converted to radiata pine faster than you can say WTF ! ...
Economic outlook looks gloomier...is an understatement as it is bound to get worse from here on. Downward movement in economy and asset class has so far have been able to absorb without being killed is because of the magnitute of money pumped in the system by rbnz and government.
On a scale of 1 to 10, pain in economy is at 2 or 3 and will see the real impact when it crosses 6 or 7.
Came across a week old article in stuff :
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300732921/central-banks-will-not…
I have a key metric that I use. It’s called ‘The grumpy-looking and whinging business blokes in a cafe/bar in central Auckland’ measure. The measure is deteriorating notably…
More seriously - anecdote alert - overhearing lots of gloomy business conversations.
At least the women are at home making a martini for when the grumpy blokes get home..
RBNZ may be hitting the brakes on the economy, but the government still has its foot firm on the accelerator.
Treasury forecasts clearly show the planned reduction in Crown spending from previous years is from removing the Covid-19 response package (MIQ, health response, etc.). However, the increased tax revenue from low unemployment, bracket creep and inflation is still being pumped back into the economy with new spending initiatives being announced every week.
The government is artificially propping up demand in the economy and is likely to continue doing so until election day.
Govt borrows at 3-4% while inflation is running at 7%, they can afford to encourage inflation because they are making net real gains. Ultimately this is going to cause a downward adjustment in standard of living for a large amount of the population.
I expect Cindy to throw in some hikes in welfare payments every few months or so to make sure the drop in living standards only hits middle NZ and not the poor or wealthy.
Classic socialists. Get 51% of voters dependent on you, and you should win every election. Luckily, the sort of people who partake of this largesse are also the sort of people who are too lazy to put their crackpipe down, and get off the sofa to vote for her. That is NZ's only hope.
The universal pension benefit cost has certainly soared in recent years, along with landlord rental yield subsidies and price subsidies. Classic socialists.
Love it
When will our central bank start reducing its balance sheet?
The 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread is the difference between the 10 year treasury rate and the 3 month treasury rate. This spread is widely used as a gauge to study the yield curve. A 10 year-3 month treasury spread that approaches 0 signifies a "flattening" yield curve. Furthermore, a negative 10 year-3 month spread has historically been viewed as a precursor or predictor of a recessionary period. The New York Fed uses the rate in a model to predict recessions 2 to 6 quarters ahead.
Global population ticks over 8 Billion today.
100 years ago there were approximately 2 Billion.
... wooo hooo ... that's fantastic news ... and chuffed that I've done my bit to get us to that magic 8 billions ... Joy !
And in the last 50 years alone - many of our lifetimes, we've added another 4 billion consumers to the planet. An increase of twice the total planet population of 100 years ago, that took all of existing history to that date to reach.
That's the power of exponential growth. Calculus nerds understand that exponential equations have an asymptote, which is a fancy way of saying that exponential growth is unsustainable, which is another way of saying it can't carry on forever.
What happens as we approach that asymptote depends on a lot of things, but John Malthus has done a lot of seminal work regarding populations in particular:
The more people there are, the more geniuses we have. Years ago I used to think Malthus had a valid point, but I'm more optimistic now that I listen to people like Elon Musk who has an engaging vision of the future, along with the brains and motivation to make it happen.
Is this sarcasm? I can't tell.
Hey Whiskey Jack, buy a ticket on Elon's first flight to Mars, to colonize the planet. Good Luck.
That's the power that founded in the Enlightenment, built by Science the Industrial Revolution & Capitalism making better lives & opportunities for everyone.
So carbon is not the problem - the shear weight of humanity is
If you look behind lots of the calamity news stories the message is often to many people fighting over scarce resources - or living in places where people shouldnt and never use to - but the problem is seen as climate change rather than population one
India have half the CO2 emissions of the US despite more than 3x the population. So carbon is the problem, if we had less people I'm sure we would still be using as much resource as possible.
If India had more resources they could afford to take better care of their environment. The richest countries are the most environmentally friendly and the best positioned to adjust to climate change.
"The richest countries are the most environmentally friendly" - I think CO2 emissions per capita will tell the exact opposite story. But lets forget about facts...
Glass half full, the Four Horsemen are in full gallop, culling the herd; war, famine, pestilence and, oh dear, forget #4.
..." reality TV " is #4 , isn't it ? ...
100 years into the future it will be back to 2 Billion, probably a lot less.
Those Korean corporate bonds ratings of 'AAA" are probably derived from their local credit rating agency and therefore optimistic. They are unlikely to be rated that level by Moody's, S&P and Fitch, who rate the Korean sovereign at AA-/Aa2
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