Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news lackluster data is starting to spread.
But first, American mortgage applications ticked up slightly, breaking its recent set of lower levels. And mortgage rates decreased as signs of slower inflation pushed Treasury yields lower. The 30-year fixed rate saw the largest single-week decline since July, dropping to 6.9%.
Meanwhile, retail sales in the US surged +1.3% month-on-month in October, the strongest rise in eight months, after a flat reading in September and beating market forecasts of an expected +1% gain. The overall rise was largely driven by car sales which were also up +1.3% as supply chain constraints continued easing. That helped juice petrol sales too.
But those good October results are unlikely to continue. Major retailer Target forecast a surprise drop in holiday-quarter sales, blaming surging inflation and "dramatic changes" in consumer behaviour for a drop in demand for everything from toys to home furnishings. Their shares have taken a beating.
And American industrial production was lackluster in October as well, slipping month-on-month when a rise was anticipated, and now only +3.3% ahead on a year-on-year volume basis. Good but not as good as expected. It is no surprise then that business inventories rose again are now +18% higher than a year ago. They aren't really out of line on an historical perspective, but this can't continue much longer.
Canada reported consumer inflation levels for October overnight and they came in at 6.9% and matching the prior month.
The UK also reported their October inflation rate, but this jumped to 11.1% and higher than the 10.7% expected, and even after the impact of their costly Energy Price Guarantee.
Going the other way, Chinese new house prices fell -1.6% in October house prices from a year ago, according to official data. That is their largest retreat since 2015. Only ten of their 70 largest cities reported any gain from a month ago, 19 from a year ago. For resales, the official data says only five of the 70 cities reported any gains from a month ago, only six from a year ago. One dropped as much as -11% year-on-year in this official record.
November car sales in China are reported as weak too.
Japanese machinery orders were weak too. Japanese machinery orders fell -3.3% in September from a month ago, ending the quarter on quite a weak note and contributing to their GDP slip. However, they are expecting a strong rebound in Q4 and the October data kicks that off. However, the sub-sector machine tool order levels in October didn't show an increase from September, so the official forecast effect is yet to show up.
In Australia, their Wage Price Index for Q3-2022 came in stronger than some expected, reaching a decade-high +1.0% from Q2 and up +3.1% from a year ago. By New Zealand standards, these aren't as high (ours was +3.7%), but for them they haven't seen increases like this since 2012. At these levels, real wages are falling fast. All eyes there now turn to their October labour market data due out later today.
Despite popular belief, Australians pay more personal income tax as a share of government revenue than almost any other advanced economy except Denmark, with the lion’s share coming from higher income earners. That is why the IMF is urging it to address bracket-creep in its latest review.
Meanwhile Aussie department store retailer David Jones say sales have increased by more than +50% in the first 20 weeks of the year, with its Sydney flagship store and CBD locations performing well ahead of expectations.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.72% and down -12 bps from yesterday in another retreat. The UST 2-10 rate curve is more inverted at -65 bps. And their 1-5 curve is also more inverted at -75 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is much less positive, now at just +5 bps and threatening inversion as well. The Australian ten year bond is down -10 bps at 3.62%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +3 bps at 2.86%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today down -1 bp at 4.27%.
Wall Street has opened its Wednesday equity session softer with the S&P500 down -0.5% in late trade. Overnight, European markets also slipped about -0.6% on average. Yesterday, Tokyo closed up another minor +0.1%. But both Hong Kong and Shanghai ended down -0.5% as sentiment faded there. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session down -0.3%, and the NZX50 slipped a minor -0.1%.
The price of gold will open today little-changed at US$1776/oz. This is up +US$5 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today down -US$1.50/bbl from this time yesterday at just under US$84/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$91/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 61.5 USc and and a minor slip. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally firmer at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we have slipped back to 59.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.1 and down -30 bps.
The bitcoin price is now at US$16,499 and down -2.6% since this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%. Contagion from the FTX debacle has now hit the Winklevoss twins.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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108 Comments
I remember when Ministers who did not perform were politely asked to consider their future or whether they might be the best fit for their portfolios.
Now we have a crumbling health system, school truancy statistics that are getting worse despite promises they would improve, and a local government sector trying to pave the way to move away from one of the core tenet of modern democracy.
The notion of modern political accountability is dead. I would also suggest the National Party are not much better in their track record for dealing with dickheads, so little chance for real improvement. Bleak choices ahead for voters in 2023.
Too late, I’m too old. Recall there was a version, something similar via a Charter School? Included in a TV segment one night.They had Buck Shelford or an identity as good as that assisting. From what I remember the young ones in attendance were happy and there was a lot of positives concerning their development. Teachers Union or government, or both, shut it down, I think.
"The early version of these camps, back in the late 2000s, was criticised for exactly that. Only two of the 17 youth offenders sent to the camps across the first two years of the scheme had not reoffended by 2011."
"researcher Jess Berentson-Shaw concurred. “As a scientist I work with evidence every day. Sometimes there is evidence of benefit with policies, sometimes there is insufficient evidence either way, sometimes there is weak evidence, and sometimes we need to experiment further to get more clarity. This is not one of those times. It is one of the times when a policy has clear evidence of harm,” she wrote.
According to Berentson-Shaw, the evidence showed that military style interventions would actually increase the risk of crime among young people, rather than have the desired effect of cutting the cycle of offending. “With that in mind, it seems clear that National is choosing to base their policy not on evidence but on the fears of their constituents. And these fears have little basis in reality,” she argued."
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/17-11-2022/the-cases-for-and-against-…
Now in their desperation to do something, have something to show, the government has overreached into the Napier district plan and approved construction of 700 or so new houses on a well known flood plain. Regional & local council has been overruled by Parker as he doesn’t think the event two years ago, ie up to 2metres of water hanging around for weeks, will recur. Sorry but this government are simply a bunch of incompetent interventionist nuts.
Aye, a huge bail out in more ways than one. Start to wonder if this government knows they are goners and now are flailing about with dumber and dumber initiatives knowing they won’t be around to face the consequences. Michael Cullen was the great cynic, but at least he was an intelligent one it is said.
Noting of course the latest education review noted that the proficiency of Maori speakers had risen but their Maths and English and general communication literacy had fallen.
Since there is no evidence to suggest that I would be able to understand your reply, the fact that you have chosen to reply as such shows you have no desire to communicate and be understood.
Or is the fact of being able to communicate in at least two languages making it more difficult to communicate at all? Or simply a 'look at me,' I can speak and write Maori.
One thing I noted when traveling through Switzerland, being the 'spoke of the wheel' of Europe, and the 'natives' able to speak four languages, as soon as they realized me a person at first glance of European origin but not Swiss, they immediately changed to English without any roll of their eyes or contempt for not being able to speak their mother tongues.
There is a lesson there. In what language say you?
Similar experience in Montreal, we didn’t even have to open our mouths before they happily, spoke english. Still in Germany, France and Switzerland I have been approached & addressed at airports in french which was somewhat baffling, but not as much as to the other parties, when I responded in my pathetic schoolboy version.
Well he calls himself a keen student of law, in fact he loves it. He should know then how important the Magna Carta has been as a foundation of our law for over 800 years, protecting citizens from intrusion by the Crown into their privacy, property and assets, yet he creates and legislates a law that does exactly that.
Grim and slim pickings for voters really.
Vote Team Blue if you want to throw everything and the kitchen sink at making housing speculation and big business great again.
Vote Team Read if you fancy getting locked up because you once wrote a mean tweet (but heaven forbid we lock up actual violent criminals) or because you think that "equal vote" democracy is so last century.
Have voted ACT for a number of years, I originally voted National but after 1 term of John Key I was quite put off.
Some of their policies I'm not a big fan on e.g. Scrapping Fair Pay, Reintroducing 90 day trials (these don't effect me personally) but a lot of what they put forward is robust. Plus, their members have substantial life experience in the portfolios they are spokespeople for.
Imagine if we did not have mim wage? The local contractor might employ a drop out at $10 an hour to tidy up the site, make the tea, learn how to turn up to work and be mentored by working folk. I.e given an opportunity to learn and feel wanted and useful.
Min wage prevents this opportunity.
This is how we are failing youth. We have priced them out of the labour market and they can't get a start.
govt assisted youth training scheme worked for me 40 years ago when the previous recession hit. The employer has no obligation to keep the trainee employed after a set period. Good young people will keep their jobs when the pre paid funding runs out and drop kicks go back on the befefit.
Translation:
"I was given a hand up 40 years ago, and now enjoy indulging in beneficiary bashing and demeaning disadvantaged people".
Maybe those "drop kicks" suffered real childhood trauma. Maybe they had mothers that drank alcohol when pregnant. Maybe they suffer from depression. Maybe they have congenitally low I.Q. But they are still humans, and they still deserve respect. On behalf of all "drop kicks" everywhere 🖕
My old Police colleague, former national MP Matt King. and the new "DemocracyNZ" party.
He won't show up the the main stream media, but he has been filling halls around the country for six months.
Not that I think our political system will solve the problems we face, I don't vote. But Matt is one guy I know has a good heart.
Considering our current government got 51% of the vote last election, with the carnage they have done we could have all used yours and all other non-voters views and votes elsewhere. It counts, it does matter and make a difference. Please be an active part of NZ society and exercise your own views on election day by voting.
I think its a problem everywhere nowadays where people can just make a statement that is blatantly wrong but they are happy to stand by it and believe somehow that the listener just has to respect that! Politics takes this to the next level and yes although Labour are the masters of BS, I feel other parties aren't a lot better.
A classic example is Megan Woods being interviewed re crime, gangs etc and she blatantly states that we are better off since Labour has been in, I mean does she even have a clue what's going on out there!!! She does, but like all the others her modus operandi is just lie, deflect, lie and she firmly believes it works!
Labour MPs cannot point to achievements as there are so few.... so they lie or say its all due to lack of investment 1,500+ days ago, surely they could point to progress within those 1,500 days, but no there are only working groups.....
So whats this I hear about 3 waters becoming 5 ways, ie Foreshore and Seabed added on the sly ....
It’s not just the ministers or local councillors, but the staff, let’s call them public servants without any notion to actually serve, especially the hierarchy. All authority, no responsibility. A public service that is opinionated, self serving and unaccountable is threat to society and democracy itself. Apart from a thin red line of conscientious and approachable individuals, that is what we have got. The horse is riding the jockey.
Poor health and truancy are a result of a lack of self discipline and personal responsibility. It's a big ask to expect ministers to fix this. Our system relies on people being sensible and trustworthy. Building more prisons and stopping home detention sentencing for violent offences and robbery?
I'm not asking Ministers to fix this. I'm asking them not to mislead or lie to the public. They do not seem to have any responsibility for the things they say not matching up with reality. I have little tolerance for people who employ this approach to manage the health or education sector, who prize their own ability to dodge a question over the actual outcomes their ministry is responsible for.
And if they cannot deliver, the honourable thing to do is resign, not dig your heels in and just say anything and everything you can to avoid the absolute bare minimum of scrutiny over things that affect vulnerable people and children.
.. if you want to know why our health system is such a shambles currently ... just 2 words ... " Andrew Little " ... that's it , the problem is right there ... a former union rep , with absolutely no skill nor background in healthcare , completely clueless in his portfolio ... and still holds the socialist ideal that no one should profit from others need for healthcare ...
So , why would any company try to innovate , say to discover a Covid19 injection , if there was no profit at the end of it for them , Andrew ?
Not to be fixed any time soon.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/478737/hospital-technologists-fed-u…
A technologist has a degree - and the debt that goes with that - but starts on $57,000, compared to the newly-boosted $67,000 starting pay for a radiology booking clerk.
It is true that poor health is largely - but NOT entirely - due to personal responsibility but at the same time that does not explain the dreadful state of the health system. People failing to look after themselves is a contributing factor for sure, but the problems go much deeper than that. I had the misfortune to spend some time in Hawkes Bay Hospital and let me tell you that there was not one positive thing I could say about the place. Oh, there is one positive that comes to mind: the parking for visitors is cheap at $1 for 4 hours. If my experience is at all representative, you REALLY do not want to have to go to or end up in hospital here.
Historical under-investment coupled with an aging population. (And in most areas, parking run as a business.) Added to that, entitlement-driven policy that's pushed up house prices so that folk will no longer move to NZ for the lifestyle (or stay here) as the wages vs. houses no longer makes any sense.
It looks like it's only going to get worse. Even the opposition only wants to impose more spreadsheets on doctors while cutting taxes on property speculators.
It requires a fundamental change in society to value work more highly and assets less so, so it makes sense to be a nurse, teacher, police, emergency worker etc. And more investment in health to help pay for our sickly aging population.
The opposite can be the case. In regard to truancy, some kids are teaching themselves at home. They got used to doing this during Covid and prefer to do some subjects at home, only attending classes where the teacher adds value. I see this as mature and an example of personal responsibility.
This may work for older students 16-18 year old who have some self-discipline. My 17 year old son's grades actually improved through the lock downs as he wasn't distracted by the social life. However, most under 16 yr olds do not have the required self-discipline for home study. I am deeply concerned with the future of our country when < 50% of kids are regularly attending school.
I am more concerned by the low level of expectation in parts of the state education sector, the inconsistency of teaching standards, poor discipline and lack of a universally followed curriculum in the pre-NCEA years. I cannot believe that teachers are against performance related pay. Some of them are truly outstanding and go well beyond the expectations of the job. Why are they happy to be paid the same as the ones that can't control the class, don't know their subject and fail to return the students' work before exam time. It is no wonder that kids don't turn up for some classes.
ZS when leaders keep saying that they will sort the problem for us or poor you its not your fault its what your ancestors did etc etc then they undermine personal responsibility - and its been going on for years and getting worse
Now I can sit on the couch eating chips and drinking to much, becoming obese and somehow its not my fault
I dont even need to provide lunches for school days for grandkids if they stay over as the state will - and thats if kids actually go to school
and at 65 I get paid for the rest of my life
and those that do take responsibility for self will be seen as tall poppies or fat cats to be taxed more
personal responsibility in NZ - ha ha - now we are a cradle to grave socialist country no personal responsibility needed
$16 billion in socialist handouts to old folk every year. $3 billion+ in socialist handouts to landlords. Well over half our social welfare benefit budget, just there.
Meanwhile, we punish hard work by disproportionately taxing work, and at the same time as subsidising landlords we've tax-privilege property speculation.
Absurd, that working Kiwis have to carry the can for all the above.
Young hard working kiwis do have the option of upskilling. Unfortunately that comes with a 13% "tax" on their salary post graduation until they've paid back their "loan".
In 2019 the annual super spend was $14.5b. 2022 it's $16b. An increase of $1.5b, or over 1.5x the total annual student loan draw downs. Or 2 x the estimated funding required to fully subsidize public transport across the country.
"I paid taxes all my life, a percentage of our taxes went to paying for National Super!!!". Ohhh, what % of taxes went to paying for this National Super?
Was it the portion that disappeared when the top tax rate dropped from 67.5% in the 70s to 33% in 88? Conveniently it's when the Boomers hit peak earnings after fully funded tertiary study. Maybe an LVT on unimproved value set at 34.5%.
Going the other way, Chinese new house prices fell -1.6% in October house prices from a year ago, according to official data. That is their largest retreat since 2015.
China's real est problem is a lot more than just falling prices and troubled developers. There's no appetite for any kind of private investment, which makes sense once you realize the global economy isn't just "slowing down." Private FAI worst on record. https://t.co/dSZQOF8ijs Link
Exactly- why buy risk assets (houses & stocks) when short end US Treasuries offer greater than 4.00% return.
Nanaia Mahuta must not be able to believe her good luck in being blessed with the most gullible and incurious mainstream media any quiet revolutionary could hope for.
Her good luck has continued after Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee dumped its report on Three Waters into the public arena on Friday afternoon.
Such timing is normally seen by journalists as a screaming red flag that the government wants to bury contentious information.
The NZ Herald undoubtedly thought it was onto the subterfuge. It quickly published an article that revealed co-governance had survived the select committee process, despite the widespread opposition expressed in more than 88,000 written submissions.
Its senior writer Thomas Coughlan commented similarly in a tweet:
“[In the] 200-page select committee report on Three Waters, [with] three dissenting views (Nat-Act-Green), Labour’s view can’t even bring itself to use the word ‘co-governance’ once.”
The NZ Herald is correct to point that out. It’s certainly news — but it is also completely predictable news.
Even Blind Freddie could see that Mahuta was never going to give up on that fundamental element of the reforms. Since the beginning, the minister has made co-governance a non-negotiable bottom line in any discussion of changes to Three Waters.
Astonishingly, the media failed to identify the actual bombshell.
The really radical move in the report — also overlooked entirely by Jack Tame on TVNZ’s Q&A and by Andrew Dickens interviewing Mahuta for Newstalk ZB — was the proposed extension to the scope of Te Mana o Te Wai statements.
Only iwi have the right to issue these edicts, which are binding on the Water Services Entity in their region. That right is denied to non-Maori, who make up the remaining 84 per cent of the population.
The select committee has proposed that such statements, issued exclusively by iwi, should apply not only to freshwater but coastal and geothermal water as well.
So — just like that — Three Waters will become Five Waters. And this extraordinary example of mission creep — well, surge, really — was not even hidden. It appeared on page three of the 200-page report.
In fact, rather than taking objections to co-governance into account, the select committee’s Labour majority has brazenly doubled down. It has proposed giving even more control over water to iwi than that granted in the existing bill when it passed its first reading in June.
Presenting such a revolutionary feature so prominently and early in the document looks as if it is happily taunting the legacy media — as a picador might a blind, dehorned and crippled bull confident it can do him no harm.
So far, the government’s confidence that this proposed expansion of iwi control would go unremarked by journalists has been vindicated.
It didn’t get past former Kaipara Mayor Dr Jason Smith, however. He was a member of the government’s Working Group on Representation, Governance and Accountability of New Three Waters Entities last year, and was one of the very few to point out early on just how much control the right to issue binding Te Mana o Te Wai statements would give iwi.
On Friday, Dr Smith pointed on Twitter to “an extraordinary new development”, and highlighted the section on page three in the committee report that noted:
“In the bill as introduced [to Parliament in June], Te Mana o Te Wai and Te Mana o Te Wai statements would only apply to freshwater bodies. However, water services also discharge into coastal water, and may affect geothermal water.
“We believe it would be appropriate to expand the bill’s application of Te Mana o Te Wai to these other water bodies. This would be consistent with te ao Māori (the Māori world view), which does not distinguish between applying the concept to freshwater or coastal water.
“We also consider that Te Mana o Te Wai statements should apply to all water bodies, and WSEs should give effect to these statements. To this effect, we recommend inserting clause 4(4) to state that Te Mana o Te Wai applies to freshwater, coastal water, and geothermal water.”
As Dr Smith put it: “Now, after all, Three Waters [turns out to be] all about all the land and 50 miles out to sea. It’s not about broken water pipes close to home.
“We’ve been played in an old-fashioned ‘bait and switch’.”
It’s easy to be fooled by the idea that Te Mana o Te Wai statements are only concerned with water purity. It’s certainly what the government wants everyone to think.
However, it is clear from Mahuta’s explanations — both in Parliament and in official documents — that these statements can include anything from improving Māori job prospects to invoking taniwha lurking in their hidey-holes near water courses.
As Mahuta herself stated in a June 2021 Cabinet Paper:
“I see the [Te Mana o Te Wai] statements as being holistic, enabling Māori to express a broad wellbeing approach, consistent with a te ao Māori approach to such matters, including economic, cultural, social and environmental expectations.
“Such statements could contain economic aspirations with respect to Māori enterprise and job creation, particularly – but not exclusively – in areas related to mātauranga Māori expertise.”
In fact, Te Mana o Te Wai statements regarding water can cover whatever the nation’s more than 1200 iwi and hapu consider to be in their interests. As long as iwi deem them to be consistent with their view of matauranga Māori (Māori knowledge), tikanga (customs) and te ao Māori, anything goes.
And the bill makes it clear that the four Water Services Entities have to obey them.
Co-governance at the overarching strategic level of the four Regional Representative Groups is just one mechanism in the bill for gifting disproportionate control over water to iwi, and arguably not the most significant.
As Dr Smith put it: “Co-governance is one thing but Te Mana o Te Wai statements are quite another. They’re not co-governance but are the biggest aspect of Three Waters reforms overlooked by most people.”
What’s astonishing is that even senior mainstream journalists — including prominent political analysts — have overlooked the significance of Te Mana o Te Wai statements. Instead, they have concentrated entirely on co-governance at the level of the four Regional Representative Groups.
Believing that co-governance is the only significant mechanism in the bill that hands power to iwi, they grumble about what they see as little more than an annoying bolt-on that is weighing down an otherwise useful infrastructure project.
Consequently, Bernard Hickey (The Kaka) can happily dismiss co-governance as an “inconsequential sideshow” with Pattrick Smellie (BusinessDesk) describing it as an “absurd complication” that has made the reforms “politically toxic”.
They have it entirely round the wrong way. As David Seymour put it: “Three Waters is a Treaty settlement disguised as an infrastructure project.”
Now that the select committee has recommended extending the reach of Te Mana o Te Wai statements to include coastal and geothermal water, the infrastructure side is beginning to look like the bolt-on to the mother of all Treaty settlements.
Mahuta has bided her time ... back when Helen Clark said no to the foreshore proposal ... and others defected from Labour to form the Maori Party ... Mahuta gritted her teeth , fumed angrily to herself , and bided her time ...
... now , now is her hour ... with a wishy washy PM endlessly waffling ideological inanities , Mahuta's time to grab what she wants is here ... co-governance of not 3 , but 5 waters : Joy !
Clark also said no to signing the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Something National ended up supporting and signing.
New Zealand was one of only four out of 150 countries that refused to sign the Declaration of Rights of Indigenous Peoples in 2007, Ms Ngata said, although it has since been signed.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/310352/clark-criticised-over-maori-…
National Govt to support UN rights declaration
The statement in support of the declaration:
- acknowledges that Maori hold a special status as tangata whenua, the indigenous people of New Zealand and have an interest in all policy and legislative matters;
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/national-govt-support-un-rights-dec…
'Presenting such a revolutionary feature so prominently and early in the document looks as if it is happily taunting the legacy media — as a picador might a blind, dehorned and crippled bull confident it can do him no harm.'
Brilliant analogy, I would also add the word 'castrated' in there as well.
I find it ironic to read the offended comments from many parties who feel their control of a resource is being reduced by 50% from 100%. My ancestors lived through a period of time when their resources were stolen from them to the tune of 100% to 0%. Even though ownership and control of those resources had been guaranteed to them in 1840.
Some of your Ancestors were Maori not all. A blood line does not mean you belong to a country more than anyone else. The idea your ancestors owned the resources is subjective. Were they slaves? would another tribe take it? What was their status in the tribe? Would the community thrive in a peaceful world to live in Harmony? Would the modern infrastructure be built? Is this a better time to be living than pre 1840's? It was extremely hard time for everyone back in those days. And who stole what? When you look at someone else who doesn't share direct blood line with you, are they thieves? BTW everyone ancestors had there land taken from them and displaced... Once the law changes to tribal or blood lines it's a slippery slope down. Go out live in a country with those same ideas and you will quickly learn it's no Utopia.
I have been calling March as a bad month for ages, Dec is hope i can sell, Jan Feb is beach time, March is no one at open homes time. Lots of builders also have nothing lined up in March, there will be a lot of construction stress, its happening now, lots of people not leaving tools on sites anymore.
RBNZ only go 50 here.
I've had three client visits this week where the business is supplying the construction industry in one capacity or another. All three are reporting significantly reduced lead/inquiry volumes as of the past couple of months, and finding converting leads to sales substantially more challenging as well.
If they go 50, then get ready to pay more...for everything.
Asset prices will explode higher ("The Top is in! Get out and borrow and buy anything and everything, now, as the future roll-over cost will be even less"), and wages will be shoved to the front of the demands queue. Higher prices will be right behind. We know how this game works, and we know who the losers will be - again.
Counterintuitive, I know. But all will be revealed soon enough.
Next year? It's been on life support for at least the last 15.
Why? Cheap Debt.
We can all debate the merits of higher interest rates, or not, but until we have returned Risk to where it should reside - the Price of Debt, determined by the merits of its underlying purpose - then we aren't going to resolve anything.
(My view? Inflation has given regulators the excuse they needed to do the above. Higher Debt rates aren't all about taming Inflation, they are about recalibrating the whole system)
Something in the water today? Plenty of whinging about how it's everyone else's fault. If you don't rate the current politicians step up and stop your whingeing. It's bloody hard being a politician in a democracy, terrible pay compared to private sector leaders, constant personal attacks, trying to work out how to get social license to do the right thing for the country when most of the country thinks they know best even though they have never bothered engaging with the issue beyond skimming a Herald headline, people confusing accountability with not doing exactly what they personally want to happen.
I am grateful that despite this, good people are still willing to step up and take responsibility, something the clowns whingeing on this thread would never do.
We're hardly going to attract the best and brightest by slagging them off constantly.
People confusing accountability with not doing exactly what they personally want to happen.
Please keep trying to make me feel bad about wanting kids to do well in school or even show up in the first place, and for sick people to be able to be seen at an emergency department in under six hours. You're going to have to try a lot harder btw.
I am grateful that despite this, good people are still willing to step up and take responsibility, something the clowns whingeing on this thread would never do.
Please keep telling me why the real victims here aren't children or sick/injured people, but the people on $300K whose main output is making excuses for things getting worse under their watch.
We're hardly going to attract the best and brightest by slagging them off constantly.
Don't serve up paragraphs of simping for non-performing ministers and then act like you care about having 'the best' when you clearly have no genuine interest in the quality of the outcomes.
You're completely off the mark there, I want all those things but the reason we don't have them is not because of underperforming ministers. It's because we as a society (not you personally) do not value them.
Like I said, if it's underperforming ministers then step up and be one. You'll find that 1)becoming one is a lot harder than you thought because people will only vote for you if they agree with you 2) when you become one you have a lot less influence and power to effect change than you think because of systemic barriers, changing systemic barriers takes a long time
Like I said, if it's underperforming ministers then step up and be one. You'll find that 1)becoming one is a lot harder than you thought because people will only vote for you if they agree with you 2) when you become one you have a lot less influence and power to effect change than you think because of systemic barriers, changing systemic barriers takes a long time
Nothing about holding ministers to their own policy statements or campaign requires me to literally become a government minister before I can do it. This is hands-down the worst approach to political accountability in a democratic system you could possible conceive. They are Ministers, they are not there to rule by Divine Right.
These people have been MPs, if they don't understand what is realistic within a system before becoming a minister then they shouldn't be one.
"Now we have a crumbling health system, school truancy statistics that are getting worse despite promises they would improve, and a local government sector trying to pave the way to move away from one of the core tenet of modern democracy."
This is what you actually said. You have mixed in your own personal views of how things are performing with one statistic (verified?) About truancy getting worse.
You're not making any effort to understand the issues or the reasons why they are occurring, you're taking the easy option and blaming the politicians. It's an easy out and achieves nothing. If you have a solution that is guaranteed to work and have tried it and a politician has blocked it then maybe but this is just whingeing based on reckons. It's unhelpful and counterproductive because it creates a narrative that the politician is incompetent and if you remove them the issue will be solved.
It might just be that the politician is the best and most competent person to try to address the issue and are doing a good job given the systemic constraints. You reducing blame down to one person is most likely wrong and intellectually lazy.
I agree with what you are saying agnostium. It's a tall order to expect ministers to solve all our problems. The state of ministers is a reflection of our wider society. Society relies on a solid bedrock of community values developed over generations. Behaviour should appear to be largely innate, instilled in early childhood, based on common sense, rather than controlled by written laws. A healthy society should be removing laws rather than adding to them.
Apparently I have to become the PM before I can ask why non-performing ministers aren't being held to account for not performing.
Does kind of limit the pool for accountability to the electorate to the handful of people who have been PM and who are still alive.
Pretty sure that's not how that should work. But what would I know.
No I'm suggesting that doing the right thing is pretty hard when the people you are trying to represent either do not know what the right thing is or disagree over what the right thing should be.
Being a politician is incredibly hard, constant whinging about politicians just erodes the appeal and then the overall competence of the potential pool.
The type of person who constantly complains about politicians is the sort of person who refuses to step up to take a penalty and then blames anyone on their team who does who misses. They also of course are happy to take part in the celebrations when they win.
I tried stepping up once, got into Local Government.
Was very interesting, initially a vertical learning-curve. Then you realise most are in there to push their own short-term, narrow-focus barrows.
In hindsight, it was like swimming in treacle - and almost every issue we visited, has since been re-visited (in most cases, under commercial pressure to exploit).
Ultimately, a democracy is dependent on the knowledge held by a majority of voters; if they're well-enough informed, it doesn't matter who is elected. Unfortunately, the majority of voters are not well-informed. Spin on behalf of the current 'winners' (often, ironically, emanating from their would-be-a-winner-if-only loser supporters) is responsible, so too is the media, and a large part of keep-quiet-an-accept-the-money academia.
If you don't rate the current politicians step up and stop your whingeing. It's bloody hard being a politician in a democracy, terrible pay compared to private sector leaders,
Righto - I am happy to step up? I assume you will bankroll my campaign?
It's not the salary that is the problem. An MP is paid 2-3 times the median wage, the cabinet more, and the PM even more again. So in theory they should be better and brighter than the majority.... yet here we are.
Our issue is that the salary is too high. It encourages no-hopers with existing party connections to join, because they view it as a valid long-term career.
Bankroll yourself champ. Part of being a politician is convincing enough people you are competent enough that they are willing to give you money or time for your campaign. If you can't even achieve that I would suggest you'd be less competent than anyone currently in politics.
And you assesment of whether they are more or less bright than the majority is based on what? The fact you think you're smarter
Agnostium Is whinging about whingers a double negative therefore a positive
It is possible to do both - and lots of the comments here dont seem to be necessarily about people who have tried and failed but about those who fail to take responsibility when they dont deliver and/or lie about it
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