Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the big news is the 'no news' out of China where they left their benchmark interest rates unchanged, torn between defending the yuan, and shoring up their property sector.
But first in the US, the National Activity Index (NAI) produced by the Chicago Fed slipped negative in October even though the prior month was revised to a stronger expansion. It was the weakest reading in four months, and another indicator the giant American economy is slowing, although it was not the sharp decline some were expecting.
Still, commercial banks in the US have been tightening their lending standards recently, and this may have as much impact on their economic expansion as the Fed's own tightening.
One company really struggling is fake-meat heavyweight, Beyond Meat.
In Taiwan, they reported sharply weaker export orders for October (-6.3%), way weaker than they were expecting (-1%). Countering that however was a commensurate fall in the Taiwanese currency.
In China, they kept benchmark interest rates unchanged for a third straight month yesterday, holding off on cuts that could risk dragging down the yuan, though some question how long this will continue. Policymakers there are torn between defending a weak yuan and doing what is necessary to protect their property market from a sudden collapse.
And the recent surge in Covid infections, especially in some major urban centers, is now turning into a death 'surge'. Not large by international standards, but enough to bring into question whether their new looser policies will last, or whether they are about to go into some bigger lockdowns.
In Malaysia, their election has brought more confusion, with no clear winner and a mad scramble to build coalitions.
In Germany, they may be seeing a sharp pullback in inflation. Certainly their producer prices rose a lot less in October than expected, and far less than they rose in September. In fact, they fell in October from September and by more than -4%, but are still +35% higher than year-ago levels. This was the first month-on-month decrease since May 2020, and the largest month-on-month decrease in a very long time, and maybe since the 1950s.
While housing markets are cooling across the world with fewer transactions taking place, price declines have yet to begin in a number of countries. Home prices in Canada are now down -10% from the peak. Sweden is the latest to report sharp declines, down -14% with -3% of that in October alone. And peak-to-trough declines of as much as -20% are forecast for countries including the US, the UK and New Zealand.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.82% and down -1 bp from yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at -72 bps. And their 1-5 curve is also little-changed at -76 bps. And their 30 day-10yr curve is holding at -5 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down -5 bps at 3.59%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.84%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today also up +2 bps at 4.24%.
Wall Street has started its week down -0.5% on the S&P500. Overnight, European markets all ended lower too, even if by slightly less. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Monday session up +0.2%, Hong Kong ended down -1.9% and Shanghai ended down -0.4%. The ASX200 ended down -0.2%, but the NZX50 was the winner on the day, posting a +0.5% gain. (Only Argentina posted a better daily gain globally!)
The price of gold will open today down -US$16 at US$1735/oz.
And oil prices start today down -US$1/bbl from this time yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$86/bbl. But these levels are an intra-day recovery from even lower levels.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 61 USc and down -½c. Against the Australian dollar we are a tad higher at 92.5 AUc and its highest since April 2022. Against the euro we are +½c higher at 59.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.4 and little-changed.
The bitcoin price is now at US$15,964 and down -3.6% from this time yesterday and a two year low. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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138 Comments
All headlines are pointing towards doomsday.
What a situation. Only positive new is employment number (In real term everyone being employed should be good news) but that positive news in today's economy scenario is minus point and to bring positivity to economy, reserve bank has to kill that very positive employment number.
Blame everyone but themselves for distributing easy and cheap money - only culprit and not pandemic or war.
What sort of world are we living.
Even One Roof are allowing quotes that don't indicate that the only way is up, even if they avoid saying it as much as they can without "liar liar pants on fire" blushes
Valocity head of valuations James Wilson said anecdotally some properties are being sold for a smaller profit as some people try and meet the market and avoid any future interest rate rises, but it is still extremely rare for properties to be sold at a loss.
“That’s mostly limited at the moment to groups like investors because owner occupiers are usually able and willing to ride through that on paper negative equity.”
If I had a property portfolio of say 10, every 2 years buy another, I too would be looking to sell the last ones added before they became a loss. you will be able to buy back better locations etc at the bottom
But would you be able to sell any of them? Isn't the 'name of the game' to leverage up every cent that's available at every purchase time? The 'available' leverage must have looked really tempting at this time last year, given the extended 'valuations' of the existing holding. And if that's done, then all 10 of them are leveraged to the max and any singular sale will eat into the collateral of the remaining 9 - so they will have to go as well.
Read the comment, if you had 10, and started 20 years ago , ie added one every 2 years.... 18 years ago I bought 4 bd room villa on Summer street Ponsonby for 460k... a place in Ponsonby, if you only added one every 2 years you have a huge ammount of equity, this was investment. Those new to the game who have 10 in 5 years are indeed screwed.
It seems easy enough to sell, its just people do not want to accept the market price.
But wouldn't you have used the appreciating equity in that first Ponsonby place to buy the next one, no matter the time lag?
That's what you were supposed to do, and what most did. (Watch any "Staircase" ad on TV today - and that's not a new thing)
I know an elderly gentleman who bought his home in 1973, and now has 7 investment properties. The last one he bought in October last year. His 'free-equity' in the all the previous 6 was used to buy the 7th.
Sure, he has rental income to justify the purchase, but I doubt he could now sell that 1973 home for fear of destabilising the portfolio. Because he's 'sold it' already, several times over, at the prevailing price to 'himself' by leveraging it up.
Karma is a bitch.
Or it is beautiful if you live a good life!
Karma Sutra appears to be great, must be her sister.
Yup, big issue,interlinked mortgages,a messy deleveraging when the whole stinking pile of tyrds starts to totter. Been through one trading cycle like that , myself. One needs to be very nimble and able to enjoy stress and andrenalin. Or suffer. Most just suffer too long ,pain and outcomes gets worse ,the longer one waits . He who gets out early,gets out best. Haha.
In any Trading situation - The first stop loss is always the cheapest, they get more expensive after that....
The best stop-loss is understanding the concept of 'over-exposure'. In theory, property 'investors' who weren't in it for capital gains at all should be totally fine with any prevailing pressure on prices.
I mean... they wouldn't lie to us, would they?
I cannot imagine there have been folk lying in order to evade their taxes.
If you are going to panic, panic first.
7+ up votes guaranteed.
There's simply no moral basis for a model that requires thousands of erstwhile employed and probably hard-working (likely vulnerable, too) Kiwis to lose their jobs because of a monumental monetary policy stuff-up, the extent of which no one who is paid many times the median wage to over-see actually wants to take responsibility for.
I want to hear how monetary policies designed to drive people out of work fit in with this government's ideas of 'fairness' that they like to bring up so much whenever anyone asks about things like indexing tax brackets.
I found this interesting, when we talk about why we need a low inflation environment this list is a good start. Particularly the invisible tax on savings that cannot be avoided.
"Price stability has the following benefits.
- It allows us to avoid the inefficiency costs arising from the presence of nominal rigidities.
- It reduces the inefficiency costs created by inflation being a tax on money balances.
- It avoids adverse redistributive effects of inflation. The adverse effect of inflation on income and wealth differs across different cohorts of society, with higher inflation especially detrimental for low-income households with limited investment options.
- It avoids adverse interactions of inflation with taxation. The presence of inflation creates distortions because taxes are levied in nominal terms and there is no full indexation. For instance, if your nominal income grows in line with inflation but the tax brackets are not updated in line with inflation, you end up paying more taxes even if your inflation-adjusted income has not changed. By keeping inflation low and stable this effect is reduced.
- It reduces unexpected changes in inflation, which create distortions. For example, if there is an unanticipated increase in inflation, the value of savings goes down and the value of debt goes down, which transfers wealth from savers to borrowers.
- It decreases the volatility of inflation, which in turn lowers uncertainty and market interest rates and this motivates people to invest.
- It contributes to a more stable financial system.
- It helps to maintain social cohesion and stability. History has shown that episodes of high inflation as well as episodes of deflation, or persistently falling prices, tend to be associated with social unrest. Unstable inflation particularly affects low-income households because they have fewer resources to protect themselves. When prices are stable, everyone is better off: price stability supports economic growth and employment, and allows people to make more reliable plans when taking decisions about borrowing, saving, and expanding businesses."
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/intro/benefits/html/index.en.html
... if , as Robbo & Adrian say , our inflation is imported , mostly Putin's fault ... logic suggests our OCR ought to have remained at 0.25 % ... because if inflation was imported , surely its solution is out of our hands too ... we just need to wait / keep trading houses / keep planting radiata pines , and eventually uninflation will be imported , and , problem solved ...
What sort of world are we living. This one:
Imagine you rob a bank, take $2+ billion in customer deposits, drive to Vegas and lose it all. Imagine this happened 2 weeks ago and you are sipping drinks on the beach while everyone knows where you are and what you did. That’s what happens if you pay millions to politicians. Link
Policymakers there are torn between defending a weak yuan and doing what is necessary to protect their property market from a sudden collapse.
Sounds familiar
All but good news this week.
Numbers will show that it is not as bad as we have thought.
Everyone will believe 7.50 bps hike will magically solve inflation for sure.
House price down and rent steady with low unemployment rate, NZ will be one happy nation.
Food inflation running at 10%+ per annum. Hungry people are not happy people. The French found this out the hard way.
Poverty issues around the country may be out of sight, out of mind for our Wellington decision-makers, but eventually they will come knocking on their door. Maybe then we'll get some honest discussion about how we got to where we are.
Well that’s what you get with an “aspirational” government. And that’s what we will continue to get next year. Something like the old hackneyed - we are looking forward, not in the rear view mirror. Unfortunately for this government, and even more unfortunately for most of New Zealand, this government’s ineptitude & failures are about to hit the fan and it’s going to be ugly and the government will discover their aspirations as an umbrella, worth Sweet Fanny Adams.
Their actions will have caused more children in poverty, more gang associates, less attendance at schools.
That's what you get from them following the status quo of their predecessors and choosing to prop up property, indeed. The bubble needed a heck of a lot of new air to keep it inflated.
Still, commercial banks in the US have been tightening their lending standards recently, and this may have as much impact on their economic expansion as the Fed's own tightening.
NY Fed: Bank liquidity may be tighter than thought, with policy implications
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/130537443/farewell-to-home-owner…
As per the experts, banks and wholesale market has already factored in hike in OCR on Wednesday, so will not have any meaningful effect on mortage rate.
If this is true and economist knows, how come Mr Orr is unaware that if he goes by rising OCR as per market expectation - which is 0.75% as of now , will not get the desired effect and to deliver should go beyond, even 0.85% will sent the signal if uncomfortable with 1%.
RBNZ will be going on a long holiday after tomorrow but not the monster. - INFLATION created by the very own people who are now trying to control as monster will not rest and keep on playing havoc.
They're literally trying to make it so hard to get by that there's nothing left to spend, or make it look so bleak that people hoard whatever meager leftover amounts they have left instead of spending it. Maybe some people will lose their jobs - at least that's what they're hoping.
The follow-on effect of those things is the bit that affects inflation. But the immediate function of what they're about to do is inflict misery. The misery does the work, not them.
Very doom and gloom in here this morning, ..having just been travelling around the North Island I am struggling to pick on the "bleakness" described?
A tale of 2 cities?
If we aren't going to be honest about how monetary policy works now, then when?
Yes and the vested interests of property tried to tell you that higher interest rates would not mean way lower property prices !
Some of those who loose jobs will loose investments and possibly their own homes. The property market is like a super tanker, it takes ages to turn, its turned down and is gaining speed... there are no green shoots on the horizon or just over it.
Same deal with the whole world economy, there is nothing in sight to help it recover. Seems only blind hope that it always has, so always will, but without anyone being about to pin down exactly what.
It is often war, unfortunately.
To fund a war a government usually goes into debt and sells bonds. What happens when they are already at war time debt levels?
Carinaz - Orr has already got the outcome on fixed rates from the last MPS... Banks will price in this coming MPS once it is known.
Fixed rates 6%-7% sitting right about where it needs to be. There's still alot of people who haven't come off those 2%-3% rates yet. There's mounting pain out there for sure and it hasn't fully been seen yet.
What do you want, people rolling off fixed rates onto 8%+. Do you want a collapse in economy causing carnage?
And thats why the 50bps calls will be proven correct.
Why do you people suddenly all think Orr cares about the stress levels of leveraged home owners. His mandate is to keep inflation in the 1-3% range. This is what he will give consideration. It will be .75% increase.
If that was all he cared about, ignoring inflation blowing past the upper threshold for a while is a funny way of showing it.
Orr seemed to care about stress levels of leveraged home owners in 2020... heck he even spent a year+ encouraging people to leverage up through his policies - removal of LVR, QE etc...
Yes, he certainly seemed to make property look more like a welfare scheme for the wealthy than a market with risk.
Nifty, its not the RBNZ's role to protect you from your poor decisions;
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/99408539/reserve-bank-warns-its-not-ou…
I wish the RBNZ had realised that earlier...
Why does it have to be 1-3%? The target should be zero. We have been living in a deflationary globalist environment for a long time. Technology, mass production, cheap Chinese labor, child labor, boomers deleveraging, and central bankers have taken advantage of this to create massive unproductive, leveraged debt with the zero interest rate environment. Recipe for disaster.
The pain is inevitable and earlier one operates, better it is.
Next year being election year could make it worse for NZ, knowing politicians appeasement tendancy to get power but now as finally fundamentals have taken over, economy cycle will run its course - like it or not. Only timely action taken today will help to mitigate some pain and help in coming out other side.
Only about 30% of the adult population has a mortgage? And only about 5-10% of the adult population has a large mortgage?
the math would suggest big hikes in interest rates will have some significance in terms of economic impact but not necessarily major significance.
As I have long said the biggest economic impact will be on the residential construction sector, which will fall off the cliff if fixed interest rates are north of 6.5-7%
Many who technically have no mortgage on thier own home, own investments with Mortgages, they still counted as no mortgage on own home.... This downturn will be ugly, just heard that there are cases of builders backing out of renovation jobs as they are now a losing trade with increased costs. Even a 50bps increase tomorrow is going to hurt as they refix next year or the year after.
I remember hearing that in recent US recessions, the collapse of the construction sector was responsible for virtually all of the fall in GDP. Perhaps that will be enough to do the job and bring inflation back to target.
How influential to the economy is that 30% that have a mortgage - think SME's who hire staff for example...
What constitutes a large mortgage - it's all pretty relative to individuals circumstance isn't it?
Seems abit too simplified to state that only 30% have mortgages without really knowing who comprises of...
I don’t have stats to hand but I imagine a very significant proportion of people with mortgages will owe less than 250k. On mortgages of that size these interest rate increases will not have big impacts for many.
The flip-side of that is that there will be an above-average amount of debt concentrated in a small group of people, most likely recent buyers and a decent chunk of those will be FHBs who have already seen their 20% vapourise and are now basically living paycheque to paycheque with no equity to show for years of savings.
Yep agree and I don’t for one instant deny the pain for a significant number of people.
my main point is the overall net impact for the economy may not be so big.
The Reserve Bank used to provide data about these things, but it no longer does.
This article is from 2018.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/money/104323467/reserve-bank-says-8-per-…
The Reserve Bank said: "The share of new lending with high risk characteristics is still concerning".
"The proportion of new mortgage lending to borrowers with debt-to-income ratios above five is high compared to international peers, such as the UK."
High debt levels left households vulnerable, and left the economy vulnerable to a default-induced spiral down, the bank said.
Lol and that stuff article was in 2018... it's looking dramatically worse 4 years later no thanks to the RBNZ.
And that article was written before they removed the LVRs.
Practically anyone who bought their first home in a major centre (lower quartile) before 2013 and didn't go to town on renovations or upsizing will have a mortgage under $200k today. That shows you the scale of the madness that is our housing market.
High interest rates are bad for rural and business borrowers also, the part of the economy that actually produces stuff.
RBNZ will be going on a long holiday after tomorrow but not the monster. - INFLATION created by the very own people who are now trying to control as monster will not rest and keep on playing havoc
Yep. The monster will be hanging around, even while Kaumatua is on hols. He will have to worry about it when he gets back approx 3 months from now and has dusted off the slippers and given his tea mug next to his desk a good rinse.
And oil prices start today down -US$1/bbl from this time yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$86/bbl. But these levels are an intra-day recovery from even lower levels.
China signs first gas supply deal for Qatar’s ambitious North Field East expansion
The landmark deal, worth $60 billion over a 27 year period, is China’s longest LNG supply agreement to date
The news comes at a time when the relationships between China and two major suppliers of LNG – the US and Australia – are at a low point.
Not at all surprised that fake meat companies are struggling. The human body knows which is the better product.
Yes that is why we love a good salad and fruit..
The Colonel was a very astute man
Or better put, the more natural product.
Overconsumption of sugar and salt seems rampant. Food producers know how to market to our evolutionary urges.
Which is what made me laugh at "the human body knows which is the better product". If you ask the human body what it wants, it'll tell you sugar, salt, and fat, also known as McDonald's.
If we're going to use share price to determine which is the "better product" for the human body, McDonald's must be the best thing you can eat.
... I'll disagree there ... the human body " knows " what it needs ... but the human mind doesn't ... the brain gets wired onto sugar addiction very early in our lives ... regardless that the junk food we're ingesting is mostly not good for the body ....
Like , you've got a Ferrrari , and you're tipping dirty diesel into the tank ...
"Wants", not "needs" ;)
I am corrected , Mr C ... you're right ... but , the point is that we're born with a body which is a precision machine , a Ferrari if you will ... which has certain needs to maintain it in tip top racing condition ...
...sadly , the mind develops wants , and overrides the actual needs ... one day you wake up & realised you've modified that Ferrari into a GV27 Camry with a door scrape ...
I don't have a Ferrari though. At best I have a Camry with a door scrape that will cost more than the car is worth to get repaired.
We have a number of large industries who have crushed the discipline of a market to make extraordinary profits.
But our solution is to make low paid people unemployed. ? Really?
Because the water can’t flow back up into the tap. Whatever profits have been made can’t be taken back for fair play. The only tool RBNZ have is a monetary faucet and in this model the worker loses.
Even if these businesses faced higher tax, that money still floats around the economy and the same thing happens - worker loses.
A wage price spiral may only go on so far, but in the meantime the worker is winning for once. One of the few ways for everyday folk to avoid going backwards at the moment is to have a wage outpacing inflation. Until the “restructure”, then the worker loses.
Will the immigration spigots being wound up to maximum help take some heat out of the pan? There could be big dollars flowing back to the families in countries of origin.
Migration is not the silver bullet to inflation and those pushing it hard down our throats are more interested in expanding their margins with lower wage bills than helping alleviate price pressures.
Granted labour shortages are contributing to the supply crunch in certain parts of our economy (e.g., not enough bus drivers, fruits rotting due to lack of pickers).
However, there are parts of the consumption basket with existing supply-demand imbalances (more money chasing few items such as rental accommodation, fuel, vegetables, etc.) and migrants rushing into NZ will only heat up the competition for these items further.
Tax is not the solution to profit excess. But ensuring competion is.
However the lobbier employed by the cartels will make sure that does not happen.
We have had an economy for some time, that allows us to feel as if our homes are ATMs, allowing us to purchase other homes, boats, caravans, Hilux and Ford Ranger. It now seems as if the ATMs have run out of money, this is going to profoundly impact our economy.
I see in the UK hospitality is being hit big time, with Restaurants closing faster then during covid. Much of it is the rising costs of energy. We are lucky we have so much hydro power here.
We have had an economy for some time, that allows us to feel as if our homes are ATMs, allowing us to purchase other homes, boats, caravans, Hilux and Ford Ranger. It now seems as if the ATMs have run out of money, this is going to profoundly impact our economy.
The problem with the bubble economy is that it fed our egos and fuelled our exceptionalism attitudes. The sheeple didn't really take the time to think about it critically. Now that it's all crumbling, there's frustration as to what's actually happening.
Yes hence the calls to DO SOMETHING.....
When in fact Orr is belatedly doing whats required before we reach a point where all could be lost in a depression type scenario. Hard though if you bought into the game on false hopes near the end. Central banks have printed and extended since the GFC, the can has been kicked a long way but we finally see that MMT is indeed very inflationary (as increasing the money supply tends to be).
Now we are at the point where assets get sold (either voluntarily or forced in some cases).
Debt is going to be repaid and written off.
I do chuckle about the predictions that peak to bottom in housing is only going to be a 20% fall, hell that was just the price rise in 2021. We have to fall about 30% just to get back tot he start of Covid. And we all thought house prices where crazy then.
Lucky we have hydro and a comparatively low population. If we had more people then we'd probably struggle with electricity generation too.
Hydro power? I pay 3 times as much for electricity in NZ (hydro), than I do for the same property in the USA (fossil fuels).
Our prices are much more stable than the US
US Electricity Bills Rise Most in 41 Years as Inflation Endures - Bloomberg
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42670
If you are going to panic, it's always best to panic first. Be quick!
Trademe is seeing record numbers of new listings, please its a small exit, no one yell fire.
Anecdotally, I know of two people with properties on the market right now, who bought between two and three years ago. Both are listed with asking prices which, although higher than what was originally paid, are probably close to a break-even proposition given the amount they've spent on renovations during that time (we're talking new kitchens, bathrooms, decks, landscaping, etc).
The properties aren't selling, and the vendors are reluctant to drop the price any lower than what they already have (8%-10% in the space of about 3 months). My point is that you don't have to sell for less than what you paid in order to lose money on a property. It makes me wonder how many more out there are learning this the hard way.
Thats an INCREDIBLY NEGITIVE article from Oneroof.. WOW well found
Corelogic predict that 5% of sales next Quarter will be at a loss....
No one is predicting a bounce anymore from here rather people trying to guess where the bottom is going to be, with the massive number of houses on the market .... it could be a lot lower before things start clearing in mass. People hate buying in wet winter up here as you are marketing a bog nowdays, Virtually impossible to get an off before xmas now, then beach etc, things be BAD by March
Note that oil prices started to come down on the very same day that the US granted the Saudi Crown Prince immunity in the case brought by murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi's fiance.
For all the talk about price stability and monetary policy, the hard fact is that oil price volatility is at the root of all price instability (and has been for 50 years). Oil, fertiliser, fuel, plastics etc - so many input costs for our economy are oil price dependent.
Thus, if we want stable prices in NZ, we need to work out a way of shielding our economy from oil price volatility. Orr, we could wiggle the OCR around and put our very serious 'doing something about it' face on.
It's interesting. Turkey is going to enforce the price cap on Russian oil by requiring Russian tankers to be insured. This may create a problem for the region.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/turkey-to-demand-ins…
All talk - what happens if Russia threatens to turn off pipeline gas to Turkey in the middle of winter?
Turkey are relying on Russia to help them break free from the IMF and their overly-dollarised economy. Erdogan's plan won't work without them.
While the Western media portrays the invasion as a raw act of Russian aggression for which the West has no responsibility, this is not how the situation is viewed in the rest of the world. For example, Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of the French company TotalEnergies, has related his surprise at how the conflict in Europe is viewed elsewhere. In India and the Middle East political and business leaders have asked him what the Europeans did to find themselves in such a mess. “I realised that the vision we – in the West – have of this conflict wasn’t shared by the immense majority of the rest of the world,” he said, “They look at us as if we’re co-responsible for it and didn’t do things right. They were also surprised by our attitude when we unilaterally imposed sanctions and only afterwards went to the UN to check if this was okay.” Link
"what the Europeans did to find themselves in such a mess."
Europeans being Europeans.
Never ceases to amaze how downright barbaric Europeans can be on a consistent level for centuries on end. Other areas of the world can not remotely compare
TotalEnergies... Audaxes seriously, does anyone seriously believe that there is anyone other than Putyboy responsible for his invasion? Without any evidence to counteract the hourly image a video evidence to the contrary this is nonsense.
Drill baby drill.
Can we take a moment to thank the moderators for banning the account Future.
Anyone want to guess how long it will take for a new account to pop up?
We should let Trump back in ..or maybe he will snub us as well?
Heard on the radio that Trump had over 80 million Twitter followers , regardless that he's not been on Twitter for years .. . it's probably fake news ...
80,000,001 now.
A principle kind of thing, and I don't use Twitter or think Trump, himself, is the answer to anything. But he poses the question.
... after Twitter banned him , he set up his own similar site ... I doubt he'd abandon that ...
Not really sure how you stop that, that and multiple accounts.
The disciples of The Prophet are no strangers to unjust persecution.
But the teachings are more important than any one of us. The message is still just as righteous and true as it was yesterday. Dont buy lousy houses now. It will be cheaper tommorow.
7% rates are a certainty and 10% is now on the horizon.
Those who fail to heed His teachings will be condemned to eternal damnation in negative equity.
Oh pleeeeeeeease
It’s pretty boring.
Those who doubted the path that mortgage rates rates would take are the ones that have been the most humiliated by their lack of faith.
Hearing that that rates won't go up any further got boring a long time ago HouseMouse.
What's the ban for? ... i rather enjoy futures rampage from the scrolls.
For being a repetitive idiot, unfortunately there are still some left on here.
Ashley Church has had an epiphany. A kind of existential moment.
From time to time, I make ‘predictions’ about the property market and what might happen to house prices. But they’re not really predictions so much as educated guesses about what the market might do based on my knowledge of the industry and the evidence in front of me. I’m not alone in this, of course – there are many commentators and organisations who make all manner of predictions about what the future might bring – covering topics as diverse as the economy, social trends, weather forecasts, demographic trends, and market fluctuations.
But while most of these people aren’t claiming to have any special insight into future events and most of them caution their audience not to treat their musings as ‘gospel’ – there are others who ‘do’ hold themselves up as having ‘special powers’ to see beyond the veil or know the future in detail.
https://ashleychurch.com/is-it-possible-to-accurately-predict-the-futur…
Trying to cover his ass... abit late.
Read the whole article. Rambling on and on, then he points to something deeper and darker based on his study of religious texts. I didn't use the word existential lightly.
I couldn’t think of anything less meritorious to waste 5-10 minutes of my life reading.
This is actually incredible - the nerve. Send lambs to slaughter as if you know everything then turn coat. Incredible.
He is basically saying that he was wrong and why did you listen to him, if you did as he was just doing what he has to do to run his kitchen .
This shows, how bad the housing market is and is going to get in future.
He is trying to distance himself from his Big Mouth.
Total snake oil salesman.
Something something even a broken clock is right twice a day. It seems time has stood still in this little old country of ours for 10+ years while everybody bought into broken clock time. It's now the eleventh hour and many are still asleep at the wheel. Our expert guessers TA and AC with beading money sweats: "Who me?? No, no, I'm no expert, I just guess!"
Anecdotal BBQ talk about becoming a "full time property investor", or buying that first investment property because "that's what people do" - still alive and kicking. No knowledge of investment required, no research, no calculations, no thinking; just doing. It worked for a while, but it doesn't add up right now and I don't think it will for some time yet.
Voting Age ! ... if you Wikipedia those two words you get a list of every nation in alphabetical order , and their respective voting age ...
... by far , 18 years old is the number ... easily by far ...
There are nearly as many countries with minimum voting ages above 18 , around 20 or 21 ... as there are with it set below , either 16 or 17 ...
It doesn’t make any sense at all that so many ‘adult’ rights are granted at age 16 yet voting rights are not.
... no problem , if 16 is the age of everything , it should also be the age where people can be sentenced to gaol too ... that'd get some ram raiders out of their cars ...
Sure
If only, 16 is retirement age for the ramsters, I reckon if they get to be adults across all domains they should get the vote. I would prefer we go back to the Roman criteria if we could but we are past that now.
"Buried within the Supreme Court’s decision, in the dissenting opinion of Judge Stephen Kos, is the fundamental political argument about lowering the voting age to 16.
“Altering voter age is not a neutral political action,” he wrote.
“Whichever direction it goes in is likely to benefit some parties disproportionately.
“That consequence is perfectly fine, but it is one of the reasons voting age is reserved and requires a parliamentary super-majority.”Thus, the heart of the debate is whether the Court should have considered the matter and whether it is appropriate for the Court to enter into such a potentially partisan political issue.
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I was young and immature at 16.
Now I'm old and even less mature.
Can't see any logical reason to not drop the voting age. Most of the reasons I've seen are exactly the same reasons used years ago to deny women and people of colour and any other disenfranchised the vote.
I agree in principle but this sudden interest to fiddle with voting age has more to do with Cindy's dropping popularity than social justice for our youth.
Her 2021 Resident Visa scheme will have added 100k+ new eligible voters until the 2023 election. Many of these recent migrants wouldn't have been eligible for residency through regular pathways and might thank Cindy for her generosity at the polling booth.
So I suspect these moves could be Labour's attempt at "Gerrymandering" the eligible voting population in her favour.
Bingo. The tyrant will seek ever more devious ways to retain their grasp on power.
Wellington needs a deep clean.
I haven't come across a word on MSM critiquing these demographic policies from such an angle. Very little on the permanent impact of co-governance structures on our democratic fabric.
Our press has dropped the ball on their role as protectors of democratic principles in NZ and would rather not be called out for speaking against feel-good woke policies.
That is what $55M bought.
Labour like the 16 year old voter because they believe those will vote for them.
The sleeze continues.
Did you bother to check if the change if applied would come to effect before the next general election...didn't think so?
... no , it wouldnt ... 2026 election would be the earliest ... but ... it needs 75 % support in parliament for a bill of this sort to pass ... ain't gonna happen ... ergo , another gab fest , another waste of time : when our politicians should be focused on other issues ...
...for now. Wait and see what the Electoral Commission tells us.
I rate it equal over-unders vs. it suddenly being technically feasible and we might as well have a go vs. 'all the planning we did was actually just a spreadsheeting exercise, we've done no work on this that is actually useful and we'll have to start from scratch'.
Both are equal chancers in my cynical opinion. I'm suspecting the rules around the Maori roll may be the complicated bit, there'll be a discussion about default enrolment that TPM wants to have and they'll not take kindly to being rushed.
It appears that only a 50 % majority is needed in parliament passing a bill to allow 16 year olds to vote in local body elections ...
... but 75 % is required for the general election ... a higher bar ...
Much as the opposition to allowing 16 year olds to vote is because the older parties aren't prepared to govern in their interest as well as the interests of older generations. They'd rather just prevent them from voting. Geri(atric)mandering.
Go even younger.
The youngest kids ask the most disarming questions and are a bit better at challenging your facts with a 'I don't believe you'
Most 16yo won't vote anyway so who cares, storm in a teacup.
Hard enough to get anyone to vote, ho hum.
I disagree on the last statement in the sense that age is not an immutable characteristic, and so we aren't denying 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote forever, they just need to wait a little bit.
Women's suffrage was a different issue altogether in the sense that prior to this a woman couldn't vote, no matter how old she was.
I'm sure some 16 year olds are more mature than many 50 year olds. But equally, I'm sure many 14 year olds would be better drivers than 50 year olds - but I still don't want 14 year olds on the road when you consider how the average kid would drive (particularly males ... I cringe at what I used to do in my car, and am thankful I was never hurt nor hurt anyone else).
I can clearly remember being about 16 in social studies class at school, and doing one of those "make a political party" exercises where you had to get together as a group and come up with policies.
It was basically a living, breathing stereotype of everything you'd expect from a bunch of 16 year olds ... everybody wanting their interests and hobbies fully funded for free, everybody thinking the magic money tree would never stop growing, and zero consideration to the 'downstream' consequences of any policy.
Why stop at 16? My 16 yr old girlfriend thought I was mature enough at 14.
It's funny when she calls you immature ... but when she calls you premature, that's a bigger issue.
With experience she may have changer her tune?
She should be in jail
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