Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the fight against inflation comes at a time economic activity is wobbling.
Overnight there was a bit of central bank action, with widely varying approaches. Firstly Turkey is going all-in on ignoring inflation's threat and it slashed its policy rate by -150 bps to 9% on orders of their President. Inflation is running at 85% pa, the Turkish lira slumped and is now at a record 18.6 to the USD, and their current account deficit is now running at -6.5% of GDP.
But still fighting inflation are the Swedes. Their central bank hiked by +75 bps overnight, taking their policy rate to 2.5% and its highest since 2008. They are facing 9.3% inflation and are another targeting 2%.
Chiming in was the South African central bank. They hiked by +75 bps too overnight in a split decision, taking their policy rate to 7%. They are facing inflation of 7.6%.
Meanwhile, the ECB released the minutes of its October meeting where they raised their poliy rate by +75 bps in the face of high and rising inflation. Those minutes made the case to 'normalising' monetary conditions by starting the unwind of QE, but the economic situation clearly makes that path a disputed one.
And the US Federal Reserve also released the minutes of its earlier November policy meeting when they also raised rates by +75 bps.
The US is shutdown for its annual Thanksgiving holiday, arguably as big a family reunion period than Christmas. It involves outsized travel activity, and is a respite day before the Black Friday sales kick off tomorrow which will take the important holiday shopping season through to Christmas. Analysts suspect this 2022 period will be a relatively lackluster affair - the usual hype but restrained consumer activity. Its a global economic engine that may not fire on all cylinders this year.
In China, the pandemic spread is accelerating and authorities there are scrambling to respond. They face a population weary of harsh restrictions, but their reality is that their healthcare system won't cope with the settings their people long for when they watch how the rest of the world is living with it. Hopes of an economic rebound in China are now all tied up in how they navigate this latest pandemic challenge because now more than 20% of the country's GDP regions are now under some sort of lockdown.
In Japan, their services PMI slipped from a good expansion in October to neither expanding for contracting in November, so holding its own. Their factory sector slipped to a small contraction, their first since 2021.
In Malaysia, they have a new Prime Minister in Anwar Ibrahim, who has faced a very rock journey to get here. He leads a tenuous minority government.
Confirming the earlier ZEW survey for consumers, the IFO business sentiment survey in Germany also reported an improved mood in the country. To be fair it is still very negative, but now less so, the "highest" in three months and above what analysts were expecting.
In Australia, heavyweight retailer Harvey Norman says end of year holiday sales are set up for a strong finish.
Container freight rates fell by another -7% last week, a heady rate of fall that is being maintained as global trade volumes pull back, especially from China. Rates from China to Europe are in freefall. Bulk rates were little-changed however.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.69% and down another -5 bps from yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at -78 bps. And their 1-5 curve is a bit more inverted at -87 bps. And their 30 day-10yr curve is also marginally more inverted at -16 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down -10 bps at 3.52%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -3 bps at 2.81%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today down -9 bps at 4.17%.
Wall Street is on holiday today but will be doing a half-day session tomorrow. Overnight, European markets all ended more than +0.5% higher, except London which had no gain. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Wednesday session up +1.0%, Hong Kong also ended up +0.8% but Shanghai ended down -0.3% The ASX200 was little-changed, up merely +0.1%, and the NZX50 posted flat result in the end with a late-session recovery.
The price of gold will open today up +US$15 at US$1757/oz.
And oil prices start today little-changed from this time yesterday at just under US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$85/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 62.7 USc, up almost +/-½c. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 60.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.3 and up another +20 bps.
The bitcoin price is now at US$16,595 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.4%.
Again, there will be no video or podcast versions today due to Covid.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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135 Comments
Every media and experts is talking about Mr Orr and his gang....how they engineered the situation, we are currently facing and all under the excuse of pandemic and war.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/11/recession-what-you-need-to…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130570951/what-are-the-alternatives-to…
No, we just leave the minimum wage as is and let inflation slowly diminish their earnings. Eventually we will hit a point where it's no longer survivable on minimum wage, and then everyone will complain that it's a "kick in the guts" for businesses and the act of playing "catch up" is highly inflationary.
The rise to $21.20 equates to roughly $750 million per year. Do you know what else is roughly $750 million? 6 months profit for a single Australian owned bank.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300515349/kick-in-the-guts-for-busines…
I've never fully agreed with the theory of how wage growth is inflationary when wage growth always trails inflation.
People receiving wages don't have the same visibility on the other side of the ledger as those giving the wages.
Real wage growth is negative, damn all those people getting pay rise's and ruining the economy! Its like like blaming government spending on welfare recipients.
+100. The increases are a response to inflation that has already happened. For that argument to work, there is an assumption that people can take infinite increases in living costs without any reasonable expectation of a pay increase to stop them from slipping even further backwards.
It is not possible that wages falling behind living costs are actually the result of living costs being pushed up by wage increases and for wages to be decreasing in real terms over the course of decades. No one is front-running inflation with pay rises. They're getting (partially) caught up on inflation that has already happened.
I'd suggest it's less inflationary than most of the 'x-spurts' are trying to sell. The inflation occurred before wage increases were demanded. To argue against wage increases in the face of any inflation, not just the current high inflation, is to be saying they want to drive living standards further down. In other words people at the top can absorb the increased costs (or have means to be able to compensate, or are already being compensated for them) but don't want workers to get any adjustments.
The problem with this is that everyone puts their prices up in times of rising costs, but expect workers to just suck it up! For any economy to function people have to have money to spend. Not just to survive, but surplus to provide quality of life. It seems the equity gap is being driven wider by design. That can only lead to problems.
So in general, as peoples incomes increase, they save a larger % of it investing in stocks, bonds and real estate, and gambling on crypto, meme stocks and binary options.
Because of this, raising the earnings of people already earning a lot is less inflationary than raising the earnings of those on minimum wage, because almost all of that additional purchasing power is spent by the minimum wage worker, rather than saved.
Additionally, a decent proportion of the population views their wages relative to minimum wage and seeks to raise them when the minimum wage does. e.g line management positions might pay a couple dollars more than minimum wage, when the minimum wage jumps they seek higher wages, either from the same employer or from the wider labour market.
Most of those people also have low savings relative to spending, so also spend a large proportion of increased income.
Standard economic theory would suggest that raising the minimum wage is more inflationary than raising wages in other areas of the income distribution. There are good reasons for raising minimum wages depending on what your objectives are, but not being inflationary isn't one of them.
Those on minimum wage with proportionally spend more of their wage that the wealthy, who put their excess into assets and other means of increasing the yield. Increasing minimum wage is inflationary in this regard. If minimum wage Matt struggles to feed the family and buys bare essential food, then gets a small pay rise, he will buy more substantial food or more of it for the family.
Most workers are struggling. Surplus money is becoming less. What you're saying really only applies to the wealthy, those who have sufficient surplus to save. These are fast becoming a small minority.
I'd suggest being careful when citing 'standard economic theory', simply from the perspective of looking at how well it has served us in the past. Plus because it is a short step from what you are suggesting (that those on the minimum wage shouldn't get a rise because of the consequences for everyone else) to saying that slavery can be justified because paying workers costs the economy too much!
i do suggest that we should perhaps look at the cost increases. Are suppliers and manufacturers justified at putting their prices up, or is this just greed at work?
The thing with minimum wage increases is that it shouldn't ever translate to a 1:1 increase to the price of goods.
If you doubled everyone's wages, then consumer goods should only increase by the proportion of cost of goods that is Labour.
If the minimum wage didn't increase, would prices remain static?
Interesting how we see rising consumer prices as being the result of inflation, ... yet for some reason we see rising wages as being inflationary, a cause of inflation.
Interesting that a Central banks first enemy in regards to manifesting and ongoing inflation seems to be wage increases.... ie. they threaten destruction if wage growth...grows to much.
AND... The RBNZ threatening to cause a recession seems almost bizarre....to me.
If our RBNZ really wanted to be credible about dealing with our inflation , ... it would have stopped its FLP money printing as soon as it became evident that CPI inflation was an issue.
Its first policy response might have been Quantitative tightening .... hand in hand with some Govt fiscal restraint.
In regards to QE the RBNZs' bal sheet went from $25 billion pre covid to almost 100 billion now..
( At the same time private sector credit grew by around $66 billion )........ 75 + 66 = $141 billion of new spending power.
The RBNZs' policy response to covid was wrong.
They used GFC policy tools that were meant to be used in a financial crisis, t.... a deflationary credit collapse. ie. bad debts causing systemic Banking/financial sector risks that spill into wider economic issues, leading to deflationary downturns.
I think the RBNZ really messed up.
It is not just Supply side issues in regards CPI inflation... It is mainly the fiscal/monetary stimulus , globally, that has had the world awash with liquidity ( spending power )....
my view..
RBNZ not that long ago, spend up people and save the economy.
RBNZ now, if you don't stop spending (which will do exactly what to the economy?), then we'll do it for you.
Make your mind up.
IMO it's a symptom of big government. They just look for new taxes or ways to take money off people, to give to other people. What exactly have this government done to encourage innovation, new ideas that lead to new businesses?
Why would you want to develop a new business in this country when you're up against the RBNZ too?
The RBNZ which pushes the retail banks to loan into housing as a safer investment than business. It's killing what is so unique about us humans. Discovery, risk taking, new frontiers.
(Sorry for the rambling rant here, too many coffees already)
I totally agree about the FLP money. The banks are making record profits and no wonder when they have access to this cheap money.
It doesn't feel too long ago when Mr Orr told savers who were earning little interest in TDs, to go out and invest in businesses, shares etc (terrible advice) . Most bought property rather than have their $s sitting, earning next to nothing (bad option). Yesterday he told people to save.
Meanwhile, Mr Orr wants to ensure banks get every last drop of FLP rather than turn the tap off early. TL:DR Savers get screwed and banks are taken care of.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/479425/ocr-hike-not-fair-necessary-…
His comments on The Panel show are also worth listening to earlier this week. Between this and Michael Reddell's blog, media have no excuses for taking Robertson and Orr at face value.
Agreed.
Weak and/or biased and/or financially illiterate media is becoming a massive problem in NZ.
The knock on effect of the lack of good mefia reporting (and lack of meaningful challenging of decision making, and thus accountability and consequence for poor decisions) is that the population lacks continued eductation and awareness of whats really happening.
A downward spiral where 90% of the population just accept what they are told, the rich sieze the opportunity to advance their agenda to grow their wealth at the expense of the poor to middle class.. And the wealth divide accelerates.
Expect significant decline in house prices, infrastructure and public services. Bank profits will grow rapidly. Societal problems will compound. I cant see any reason for that process to change in the foreseeable future.
The media bias has been scary as hell ever since 2020, the extreme lack of critical thinking in analysing and critiquing government choices, monetary policy, rampant opinion pieces which aren't worth 2seconds of your attention. It is as if they think we are all unintelligent and having to dumb everything down for the 'average' person instead of challenging us and the powers they are supposed to keep in check through investigative ethical journalism. This is far more reaching than just a problem, it is influencing public opinion in an unethical biased manner which eats into the heart of what it is to be a New Zealander. Thankfully more and more brainwashed people are seeing this as time goes by and meaningful conversations are had, we all bear a responsibility to uphold what is right and demand better of the media and government.
But it is the same situation all around the world, all following the same playbook. We didn't innovate any special response over the last few years, apart from being a bit earlier than others on the unravelling of the stimulus. I really don't see why Orr and the current government are targeted any more than the international strategy they all follow.
Because we were not 'early' - other countries began tightening before we did and they chose to ignore the hot-running housing market and inflation picking up speed. We're still running the FLP program today, at the same time as we're having to spike interest rates. The RBNZ has failed in almost every aspect of its mandate to the extent that they now have to plunge the country into recession. How's that for maintaining employment and financial stability?
The Govt are targeted because after spending years in opposition moaning about house prices, they sat back and let them explode - and then rewarded the guy who oversaw it all, and who continues to make excuses that don't stack up to basic scrutiny, another stint in the role, despite widespread criticism and questions over RBNZ's performance and direction under his leadership.
For the long term effects the Govt and RBNZ fully deserve to be targeted, their shared priority has clearly been votes and keeping unemployment low, it has been... crap.
As I read more I think the media does spell out that the various reserve banks of the world "dropped the ball" and it is probably only the most basic of commentators and the facebook crowd who take that and convert it to "Labour and RBNZ screwed us all". Of course I certainly believe they have both done poorly and in such situations I definitely wouldn't extend anyone's role/responsibility for 5 more years or a 3 year government term, without a full analysis.
The global strategy duo of Reserve banks and Governments assumed COVID was going to hurt us all. With their impetus they managed to isolate that hurt down to the health sector (overwhelmed and drained to breaking point) and school children who lost education as a tradeoff the for wellbeing of vulnerable and elderly.
The stimulus they provided was now clearly too much, and the hurt avoided will now be paid back through the OCR mechanism until things are back in balance. That's just the way it is. Review what happened and mark some lessons learned and lets get planning for the future.
At a simplistic level, we were told to spend to prop up the economy in an unprecedented world event. We are now being told to save and stop spending or we are all screwed (we're already screwed), and the people telling us to do this are the same people that to a reasonable extent, could have but didn't, take action which is required of them in their respective roles within the RBNZ. Do you particularly like bein told by an incompetent Adrian Orr that we all are in for a ride and need to buckle down the spending when he failed in every aspect of this role and responsibilities and then was rewarded with a excessively large pay increase? Personally no, I don't and it is both hypocritical for him to do so, as well as morally wrong for him to accept the job for another 5 year term instead of resign and bow out as the level of responsibility in his role would require.
Tenuous government in Malayasia, well I suspect that is the new trend all over the world.
The downstream effect of this, and of other events such as FTX, mean less security for assets. Fraud on one hand, the threat to individual property rights through decay of governments and civil rights erosion, and in this country the stealth corporate attack via Maori on resources. Water is an asset to us all afterall.
What seemed a benign investing world just a few short years ago is now a minefield.
War....another threat depending on where you are.
Well Malaysia has now had Bumiputra in place for 50 odd years. A policy of racial divide and selectivity. Current government in New Zealand must surely have studied the progress and impact of that system, which would explain much of the similar agenda they are pursuing.
Businesses face a number of challenges that are inflationary but interest rates won't fix.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/479425/ocr-hike-not-fair-necessary-…
Watermelon inflation policies - "...the global economy has under-invested in new oil and gas supply and prices are likely to remain higher than they should have been." OECD nations "...will spend 17.7% of their gross domestic product on energy, according to OECD calculations, the second highest ever and almost matching the 17.8% of 1980-1981 during the second oil shock.
Captain Cindy's climate leadership plan of planting farmland in trees and burning jungle coal has really made a difference.
"... For now, fossil fuel demand is going up, with oil, gas and coal likely to set new consumption records in 2023."
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-24/energy-security-n…
And we all need to be cognizant that Ms Adern and Mr Robertson are gifting control to Ms Mahuta and her Tainui iwi via co-governance.
Wonder how the other iwi's like that?
The key for Ms Mahuta is economic control first with climate second...
Come on New Zealand, it's time we opened our eyes to what is actually going on in Wellington!!
... some of us opened our eyes real wide in 2017 when Bill English won the election by a country mile , but Winston Peter's decided to make Jacinda Ardern Prime Minister instead ....
It's been " WTF " daily , ever since ... everyday , every boneheaded stupid thing they do , every lie ... WTF !
You could argue he wasn't willing to pay the price NZ First wanted for governance, but that would require you to believe those negotiations happened in good faith. In any case, he cannot be said to have 'lost' the election itself, just the negotiations that followed it. It's not like Ardern romped home to victory over him, at any point.
Lots of good faith from Winston - just not for the electorate. Would have been nice for Winston to let the electorate know before the election he was taking National ministers to court...
"Winston Peters' lawyers signed papers seeking legal action against National leader Bill English and three of his ministers the day before the election was even held."
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/peters-filed-against-nats-before-election
...except you don't vote for 'left vs. right'. You vote for parties.
I could say because everyone elected was human, and Bill English is human, he won 100% of the vote. But it would be dumb as hell, because reframing a choice people don't actually make into something else is borderline dishonest.
More people voted for a set of parties that were similar enough to work together than the other set of parties.
You want FPP. You can't have two similar parties like Labour and Greens in that scenario as they steal each others votes so you end up with only 2 parties and you have to align with one of them. That is crap in my opinion.
I don't "want" FPP - I happen to quite like MMP. And no, this more revisionism. Winston's whole schtick was "I'm not going to tell you who I'll go with" and he kept the country waiting around for weeks while he made it all about him. Pretending that a vote for NZ First was always a vote for Labour is attempting to project the outcome of the election back to before the votes were cast to imply intent. That doesn't hold water, especially given how notoriously pissed off some NZ First members were with the outcome
Like I say the only real motivation for some here seems to be that they can't accept that National got more votes than Labour in 2017. People can try and make out that I somehow don't understand how MMP works, but I also know copium when I see it, and this smacks of it.
Dude, you're just 100% wrong. Bill English and National did not get enough votes to win. Neither did Jacinda and Labour.
But Jacinda and Labour were able to come to an agreement with other parties to govern and so they won. This is what democracy is all about, having leaders who can negotiate a working compromise. National were not able to so they lost. It isn't even about right and left, it's about compromise. It will never be perfect and it will never satisfy everyone because people have fundamentally different views.
"Yeah, she had better policies and was able to articulate them better. I guess that is a sign of good leader, no?"
No, that's the sign of a good communicator, to be a good leader one must be able to deliver on promises made, a skill unfortunately absolutely lacking in Mrs Ardern
Also a clear tactical advantage by knowing full well that the relationship between NZF & National was strained to say the least and as well there was precedent in Labour’s favour. WP having been a success as Foreign Minister in the Clark government and there remained as well good links with other NZF mps. Personally I thought, right from the start, all the signs pointed to NZF going with Labour especially, as said earlier, given the flurry & publicity around the leak of WP’s super details etc.
Hardly unique ag. Key went over six years like that if you were as much on his side as you are on hers. Personally I had little appetite for Key & his blue suit brigade but at least he knew when he was a goner. This one now is weak, that adulation you extol vanished, she’s a goner too now, she knows that and it shows. Regrettably, I have a jaundiced view about the vast majority of our mps, all sides of the house, but if a mp cannot show up in their electorate when there has been a tragic loss of life by violence in that locality. that is very poor form whatever way you want to look at it.
True enough ag, prior to 2017 National did not possess a potential viable coalition partner. Any slim hope of coalition with NZF was vaporised when WP perceived that National were party to the leak of his superannuation private details. Some of the electorate saw that coming hence NZF became the potential to stymie a Labour/Greens only government and that is how it eventually played out. Next time round NZF’s role in the government was rejected by the electorate however there is reason to suggest that the electorate was still wary of the Greens, and at the same time disturbed by the continuous antics & odious actions of some of the National party, so some voted for Labour to thwart the Greens once again. If so there is a very obvious irony in that, the electorate used the MMP mechanism to defeat the principles of MMP and produce a virtual FPP result.
Bill English and National did not get enough votes to win. Neither did Jacinda and Labour.
Yea, I'm just asking people to make this distinction. National essentially wasn't 'defeated' at the polls in 2017 - they got outdanced over the next few weeks in negotiations. But that doesn't change the fact they simply got more votes than Labour did.
Yet I have people here telling me that voting is suddenly on a bloc basis (it isn't) or the people voting NZ First were actually knowledgably voting for Labour (they weren't). You can lose a battle and win a war, for sure. But winning the war doesn't change the fact you still lost the battle. And at that point, with that logic, given the havoc Winston wreaked, the real question then becomes did Labour 'win', or did NZ First?
Seriously???
National definitely got defeated. I know this because they did not form a government. They were defeated by the parties that did form a government.
Jesus, I bet you're the type of person that goes back over old All Blacks defeats and claimed they would have won had it not been for ref, injuries, weather, whatever....
Have a wonderful day.
Did not form a government, no. But not defeated at the ballot box. One number bigger than the other. Why does that upset you so much?
I'm the type of person who can genuinely accept that the electorate made Labour the runner0up and it was Winston who made them the winners after the fact, not sound policy or campaigning on their part. But my personal identity isn't wrapped up the success or failure of any party and a desperate desire to portray them as all-conquering in order to feel good about myself. So I don't have a deep-seated desire to rewrite history to ignore bits I don't like.
I recall under the old FPP system National gaining power despite getting less votes than Labour. They just won more seats.
And it's not hard to imagine a scenario next election where National get less votes than Labour, but get to govern again because ACT get them over the 50% mark as a bloc.
I take your point re Winston being coy pre election, but I think he is a spent force now. His best people have left the party, he is getting old, Shane is unelectable, and his big donors will be backing ACT or National this time around.
Well, hopefully you vote for policies, and the party is just proxy to that.
National bit the hand before the election, and were quite literally dreaming that Winston would go their way.
It was however, very entertaining hearing the wails of our very blue family boomers at the following family gathering - while all the young present were explaining how they'd actually just got the government they voted for.
It's just a shame Winston reneged on one particular policy, which cost him a whole lot of voters at the next election. That and Shane Jones...
Not to worry! Salvation is at hand.
New Zealand has its very own version of the Kennedys, Bushs, Clintons and Trumps incubating, right this very day.
"David Seymour praised by Max Key..."
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/act-leader-david-seymou…
Some of the posts remind me of this clip fairly frequently
When a craft brewer offers you a 15 % discount on any or all of his beers as a " Black Friday " special , and you can afford to buy a big box full without necessitating the rest of the family eating tinned cat food until Christmas ...
... that's " successful " ...
We also don't operate under a system where you vote for blocs, so trying to reframe that as the choice people were making (especially given NZ First specifically gave no assurances who they would partner with post-election) is a pretty terrible argument.
They vote for parties. One party got much more than the other did. No amount of attempting to revise how the electoral system works will change the fact National got more votes than Labour in 2017.
I understand how coalitions work. I just also understand that projecting my own political sensibilities in order to reframe an election result along lines that votes weren't cast is duplicitous. That doesn't change because some people can't bear the thought of the PM having an L on her scorecard.
Seems like I'm not the one who needs to brush up on the basics here.
I would have been quite happy to see Labour roll out affordable housing and Light Rail like they promised. But silly old me is actually interested in how people deliver on what they campaign on, and not just buying into the spin designed to make me look the other way. I'm sure those people living in all those emergency hotels in Rotorua are just thrilled that NZ journalists got to export puff-pieces about the PM to the Guardian, which then get reported on by local journalists as 'look at all this favourable international coverage our PM is getting!'
You do you though.
I prefer to vote for parties that don't bait and switch the electorate with policies they're too incompetent to execute and then gaslight the electorate by constantly delaying, rescoping or just not talking about them ever again.
Given that Labour are making precisely zero progress in these areas too, it sounds like what matters more is the party brand you vote for than whether they actually ever get anything done. I guess I've never had the luxury of being so comfortable that abject government failure doesn't concern me because I'm not personally effected by it.
House prices are coming down, mainly because of interest rates but thanks also to the policies Labour have brought in. National plan to reverse these policies. If you truly wanted affordable housing you would support Labour over National on this issue.
Labour are committed to improving public transport in Auckland. National will can Light rail and will likely only support a road crossing over the harbour bridge or more RONS. If you truly wanted better transport in Auckland you would support Labour over National.
I am agnostic as to which party I support. I base my voting on policy. If National had better policies I would vote for them in a second.
You appear to prefer voting for parties whose policies you disagree with who can deliver them well. Suggest you vote Act, their whole thing is they will do nothing to address housing or public transport so guaranteed to deliver.
Our mandate for co-governance stems from when National signed the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples in 2010. This was something Helen Clark refused to sign. It literally states in National Party's Beehive release that Maori have an interest in all policy and legislative matters i.e. co-governance.
The statement in support of the declaration:
- acknowledges that Maori hold a special status as tangata whenua, the indigenous people of New Zealand and have an interest in all policy and legislative matters;
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/national-govt-support-un-rights-dec…
Can you please stop with the facts?
Some people on here just want to whinge about Jacinda and Maori and claim that National would do better based on absolutely zero evidence given National's policies.
All these facts get in the way of the narrative that JA is the worse PM and govt in living memory and scaremongering about public assets being given to Maori.
Exactly. We're coming out the other end of a massive pandemic and the global political economy is going through an era-defining shift. Anyone who was in power was going to be up against it. I try to look at policies rather than personalities and struggle to see how we would have been better off in this situation if National had been in power and if they take power in the next election. Their policies are similar to the current Tory policies in the UK which have absolutely devastated the country over the last decade.
Agnostium, it's not about policies, it's about getting stuff done, like building 100'000 affordable homes for example, which was prior to and not affected by Covid or Russia's war.
(and incressing homelessness, people living in motels, increasing ramraids, crime, more gangs, insufficient teachers, nurses, GP's, no more mental health beds after spending 1'900 million………)
Disagree, it's about policies.
Some are more likely to addess these things and some are less likely. From what I can see National's policies will make all of these things worse.
What appears to be happening her is people are criticising the government for not fixing something that the opposition parties would actually try to make worse.
If anyone can provide any stated National policies that will address "incressing homelessness, people living in motels, increasing ramraids, crime, more gangs, insufficient teachers, nurses, GP's, no more mental health beds" then I will happily consider voting National. But they don't, the policies they are proposing will make these things worse. So at this stage I would rather vote for a party that I know will not be able to completely fix these problems but that will at least be pointing in the right direction.
You're making out like co-Governance gives Maori sole ability to give direct orders. It doesn't.
It gives Maori "Partnership in Management", an "Interest in policy and legislative matters". This is something the National Party agreed to in 2010 where they state Maori are effectively a special interest group.
Or was the intent for National just to have Maori sit in on close door policy making activities with duct tape over their mouths?
You're acting like co-governance as proposed by Labour we have it is the only possible implementation of this, and totally ignoring things like Maori Statutory Board members on Councils or the ongoing existance of the Maori seats in Parliament - which was very much under the gun at the time that declaration was made. But sure, if you want to paint that as 'sitting with duct tape over their mouths' then go ahead, but it comes across as hysterical.
And tell me, what part of 'co-governance' is 'co' about one group of people being able to exercise more than a proportional share of a vote? Or issue directives to water entities that they must give effect to? I don't see anything in that agreement that requires us to abandon core democratic principles either. Yet here we are, apparently constantly looking in the rear-view mirror at what National did and falling over ourselves to even question what Labour is proposing and indeed, legislating under urgency.
I love the place, used to fly there from London about once a year on those cheap charter flights for 2 weeks. Good times, in fact I was in Turkey when 9/11 happened and we were stuck there an extra week as they closed the skies down. The people are very kind, the food is great and there is some incredible history. Istanbul is such a cool place.
I cannot remember exchange rates, but it seemed cheap at the time vs pounds.
Think about why Orr was given the extended term.
He's now free to openly 'tell the truth', without being concerned about the political fallout - from either side. He can get on with the job.
And the fact he's telling us the RBNZ is engineering a Recession tells me that they already know it's going to be far worse than that.
They're getting us ready in the 'gentlest' possible way. Don't panic the horses and all of that.
We can argue about the appointment if we wish. But that's pointless.
What's coming now, is coming. And the RBNZ is doing what is has to do.
Getting us prepared.
If u want to really see the underlying, first principle, cause of CPI inflation check out Turkeys broad money supply growth.
Turkey has a really messed up Central bank... which is obviously dictated too by the Turkish President ?
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FM.LBL.BMNY.CN?locations=TR
Good luck with lowering interest rates..
Inflation is running at 85% pa, the Turkish lira slumped and is now at a record 18.6 to the USD
Nope - one USD buys 18.6 Lira today - just like it did earlier in November and in October.
Turkey have now pretty much completed their explicit strategy of reducing the amount of Govt money handed over to foreign investors who were milking the high interest rate.
As I have said on here many times, this is a long game for Turkey. I don't think their plan was particularly well put together, but don't write them off yet. Turkey are investing in major housing projects, putting minimum wages up, and Erdogan's ratings are rising.
Take a longer term look...
One USD bought 3.7 lira in 2017..... now it is 18.6
( Alot of their foreign debt is denominated in foreign $... so the exchange rate collapse is a massive burden on borrowers, both private sector and Govt. )
I dont see any long game.... Hard to see how Turkey will manage things ??
(With ongoing current acct. deficits, they are reliant on foreign investment... just as NZ is )
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932022_Turkish_currency_and_de…
Yes, I've followed this for a while. It is hard to see how building the domestic economy and boosting exports will happen in time, given the debt repayments, However, most of the foreign currency debts are denominated in Japanese Yen, which might soften things. My money is on a deal with Russia to boost energy security (a key driver of inflation and the trade deficits).
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