Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news China is scrapping their tough pandemic restrictions as the economic toll mounts. It was a more broader backdown than expected as their stagnant economy now demands remedies.
But first in the US, mortgage applications and mortgage interest rates fell last week in an extended retreat reflecting a weakening of an already weak housing market.
However, there are signs in the US that holiday season retail sales may not be as weak as feared. Many retailers are embracing their higher inventory levels and see it as a competitive advantage. Consumers seem to be responding.
In Canada, their central bank raised its policy rate by +50 bps to 4.25% earlier today. It is also shrinking its balance sheet in a continuing tightening phase. However, it has opened the possibility that they may be near the end of their rate hike cycle for now.
In Beijing, their National Health Commission set out 10 new measures, less than a month after it started the reopening process with 20 guidelines for officials to minimise social disruption. Despite a buildup in expectations in recent weeks, markets appeared to be taken aback by how far-reaching these moves were. An initial rally fizzled as investors worried about a spike in infections and the chaos that might result from such sweeping changes.
Separately, Chinese exports dived by nearly -9% in November from a year ago. Their imports fell more than -10% on the same basis. Both were results far worse than expected, and far worse than the falls recorded in October. This was the second straight month of decline in shipments, amid weakening global demand due to high inflation and as production disruptions lingered.
China's official foreign reserves rose in November however, buoyed by a rise in the USD and rising asset values in the month.
In India and as expected, their central bank raised its policy rate by +35 bps to 6.25% late yesterday. It was seen as a hawkish shift in policy.
In Australia, their economy expanded +5.9% (real) in Q3-2022 from Q3-2021, but only +0.6% of that was in the September quarter, and that was less than was expected. Nominally, their dollar rise was +13.1% from a year ago, but the Q3 weakness was very pronounced in this nominal data.
One of the most striking parts of this GDP release is the level of embedded inflation it reveals. Household prices are rising at an +8% rate in Q3 (+2.0% q-on-q), and wage inflation is running at an even faster +10% rate (+2.6% q-on-q)
New Zealand doesn't report its Q3 GDP result until December 15, 2022. The Massey GDP Live tool suggests we can expect +2.5% real year-on-year.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.44% and down -12 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at -82 bps. But their 1-5 curve is more inverted at -103 bps, while their 30 day-10yr curve is also unchanged at -21 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down -5 bps at 3.32%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -2 bps at 2.94%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today up another +6 bps at 4.11%.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 has started its Wednesday session down just fractionally. Overnight, European markets ended about another -0.5% lower. Tokyo ended yesterday down -0.7%. Hong Kong retreated -3.2% yesterday in a very sharp afternoon sell-off. Shanghai ended down -0.4%. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session down -0.9% and the NZX50 was down -0.2%.
The price of gold will open today up at US$1783/oz and up +US$12.
And oil prices start today down another -US$1.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$73/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down to just over US$78/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 63.6 USc, and again a little firmer than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are also firmer at 94.7 AUc. Against the euro we are at 60.6 euro cents and up slightly. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.2 and up another +30 bps overnight.
The bitcoin price is now at US$16,812 and down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has modest at just +/- 1.3%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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In Beijing, their National Health Commission set out 10 new measures, less than a month after it started the reopening process with 20 guidelines for officials to minimise social disruption.
Separately, Chinese exports dived by nearly -9% in November from a year ago. Their imports fell more than -10% on the same basis.
Separately, yet probably highly related.
Irony here. This covid pandemic had its genesis in China, spread rapidly by dint of air travel etc, created global devastation economically combined with mortalities by the millions, returned to China something as the prodigal son, but wearing new clothes, and is playing out the end game there as well, given the rest of the world has by now , been well and truly resigned to living with it.
6.6 million covid deaths over 2.5 years. Is that a lot??
Compare:
1. Deaths per year total 69 million
2. Spanish flu deaths of 500 million people.
We blew a lot of resources on covid and put our faith in politcal masters who have failed us
I thought the Spanish flu was about 50m? But the point is well made, particularly when you compare against the population of today and versus the age of death due at least partially to Covid-19 and associated co-morbidities i.e. Spanish Flu much, much worse.
Somehow I think that the nz political masters, were happy to have a crisis. Its now coming home to roost
The problem is you're counting the number of dead and presumably many more were saved.
It's like saying airbags don't work because the road toll isn't high.
Of course, to an extent. But the same in earlier pandemics, where measures were taken and lives were saved.
As for the vaccine (which I received) unvaxed got less sick than vaxed. Please explain that
The vaccine's efficacy has decreased as covid-19 has mutated, although at the same time the virus itself has become less fatal.
Pandemic mitigation strategy should be procedural now.
The vaccine never had any efficacy as it never protected you from transmission or infection. The unvaccinated and infected individuals were the heroes of the day, accelerating herd immunity and building stronger immunities to any future mutation.
If we didn't lock down & vaccinate,there would have been a lot more dead 'heroes'
Lockdowns have only the slightest impact on infections, it is completely outweighed by the cost of the disruption to society.
They and masks are the epitome of pseudoscience.
It reduced mortality rates.
Heroism doesn't have much to do with it.
Ha, my Anti vax mate got way less sick than I did and I am vaxed, but I didn't think it was an established fact?
The Anti anti-vaxxers do not like to hear that. Let them believe they never got as sick, to justify their participation in Pfizer's experiment, but I also seen no difference in being jabbed or not. I have also found that first-hand experience is better science than expert's paid by Big Pharma and reported by mainstream media to be corrupt and misleading. Big Pharma pays for the science to justify their profits and are not worried at all about people's health and the adverse reactions to their failed 'vaccines'.
Evidence?
Evidence?
The evidence is first hand experience
In the medical world, this is the lowest class of evidence. Our own experience is generally so small as to be completely meaningless.
Its ok in court though?
Yes, first hand experience of watching someone commit a crime is statistically useful. Your handful of observations on Covid is not statistically meaningful, and this is precisely why we perform clinical trials. This is a very important fact and is the basis of evidence-based medicine, which has saved countless lives.
This is true.
But clinical trials are easily gamed. And the clinical trials for the mRNA vaccines were badly rushed, statistically underweighted, did not focus on those most at risk and with most to benefit and in the end showed very small differences between the control and the experimental group, in spite of all this jiggery pokery.
Thats assuming you can take anything from a trial that did not go the full time and where they gave the treatment to the control arm. What no more control...ooops.
In terms of overall mortality there was no difference, the same amount died in both arms. The actual protection (when adjusted for age) is much closer to 1% on average (nothing like 95% effective), because in reality most people aren't actually hospitalized by covid.
This sets aside the 30 billion other reasons Pfizer has to not ask many deep questions and get this thing out as quickly as possible.
I believe that is called anecdotal evidence, not empirical evidence which is the gold-standard in science.
It's a pity that in this age with computing power and analytics tools galore, we're running blind here.
Self reporting stats here would be heavily tainted given the penalty for self reporting was to lock yourself away.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/478843/covid-infection-survey-delay…
A long-awaited survey of Covid-19 infections has been delayed until next year.
In a statement, the deputy director of health Andrew Old admitted to RNZ the work "has taken longer than expected".
The ministry had originally planned to launch two surveys after the March peak of cases. An infection survey would randomly sample people to assess the prevalence of Covid-19 in the community.
Wow, you just lost all remaining credibility you had left.
Excellent
I hope things improve for you 🤣
Not actually true. USA has now got more Covid related deaths with vaccinated than unvaccinated. i am not sure of the exact stats though. But I am sure it is not proven that four vaccine jabs good, no vaccine jabs bad. Too many vaccine horror stories coming out for my liking.
It would be extremely unsurprising if there are more vaccinated Covid deaths than unvaccinated, given that the vast majority of at-risk people have been vaccinated.
Exactly. Facts so easily twisted to suit agendas.
You are the most patient poster of any on this thread. I don't know how you keep at it, presenting facts in a factual and non-emotive way. Thanks for your efforts. I think I've posted before that you can't change a conspiracy theorists mind with facts but at least those that are inclined to evidence get some proper information from your posts.
Hats off to you sir, yiu have the patience of a saint.
Agree. I tried about a year ago and then just left them to it.
mfd is way more eloquent and -err- polite.
Just in New Zealand about 88% of deaths are in "fully vaccinated" / "fully vaccinated and boosted" individuals.
Ohhh but imagine how bad it would have been if they weren't vaccinated?
Or something.
Yep I know of one vax horror story though my family contacts so they must be reasonably common. So glad I didn't take it. The current round of the flu also appears to be dropping the vaccinated like flies, everyone I know has got it or had it and yet to catch it myself. It really starts to make you seriously think about things.
The question is, what did the measures do?
- Vaccine didn't limit transmission, and appears to be ineffective in saving lives.
- Lockdowns delayed the spread but it still eventually got around and is now endemic globally.
- Masks, social distancing, etc... also seemed to do little as it ripped through NZ when both those measures were in full use.
So looking at the outcomes, I would say we delayed the outcomes rather than prevented them, so deaths is as good a measure as any.
The only flaw with the death stats is that most Health Authorities around the world have openly admitted they are overstated. So likely the whole virus is less-worse than implied above.
- Lockdowns delayed the spread but it still eventually got around and is now endemic globally.
The benefit of this was slowing down the build-up of cases and thereby not overwhelming already stretched health services. A lot of people don't realise just how close to the bone our hospitals are running, even under "normal" caseloads. NZ's health system is truly broken.
The lockdown itself didn't save the system from an influx of patients, rather it put the system under even more stress by reducing staff.
- In the initial stages, any covid positive or close contacts were locked in isolation causing mass issues with staffing.
- We removed unvaccinated healthcare workers.
None of this takes away from the point our healthcare system is completely shot, and only appears to be getting worse.
and also delayed a lot of diagnostic testing. The sick people and getting sicker people didn't just disappear.
Lockdowns - favoured the more virulent strains and suppressed the more infectious strains ...and destroyed the economy, education and mental heath. Apart from that lockdowns were a good idea.
"...The way medical scientists talk about evolution is sometimes alarmingly naive, as if random mutation is what drives it. No, no, a thousand times no: it’s selection. For example, I took a train this week, putting me at risk of catching Covid from a fellow passenger. But if two other people had been planning to travel on the same train, one with mild omicron and the other with severe delta, the latter would have been more likely to change their mind and stay home because of feeling unwell. That’s selection. The fiercest enemy of a virus is another virus. Omicron ousted delta at least partly because people with mild symptoms were more likely to go to work or parties (or not notice they were ill) than people with severe ones.
...Yet here surely there is a worrying lesson about the past two years. In the weird world of lockdown, severe strains of Covid were favoured by selection. If you tested positive but felt fine you were told to stay at home. If you fell badly sick you went to hospital, where you gave your illness to healthcare workers and other patients. So mutants that were more infectious, such as alpha and delta, paid no penalty for being just as virulent, maybe more so. The natural evolution of Covid into just another mild cold was therefore possibly delayed by at least a year."
Personal experience. Many hospitals (hugely in debted) in the USA were empty. People too scared to go? Hospitals only wanted Covid patients, $17,000 for admitting them (no worries about insurance or proof of Covid, government will pay) and $39,000 if you can con them into a respirator. Covid was all the fashion.
We effectively prevented the delta strain from establishing in NZ. This was the far more virulent strain and was the one more relevant regarding severe illness and deaths. Omicron is a different kettle of fish. The vaccines may be less effective against Omicron but the illness caused by it has tended to be more mild.
I hear this all the time, but lots of delta came into MIQ (was it 1500 cases) but not many deaths in MIQ.... So as an engineer I would love to see a paper talking about the mortality rate of delta vs omnicron. China is about to show us how deadly omnircon is to the unvaxed.
Covid was deadly for people beyond average life expectancy. A stage when a lot of other stuff is deadly.
"COVID-19 cases were reported across all ages:
- The median age of all cases is 31 years (range: 0 to 110 years).
- The median age of deaths is 83 years (range: 0 to 110 years)."
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-a…
Sadly the extended lockdowns are now giving rise to an increase in RSV and Rheumatic fever deaths in children across Europe. Babies normally build some immunity due to the mothers exposure, however 2 years of isolation means that many young children have reduced immunity. We have extended the lives of octogenarians at the expense of children. This was warned about at the time and should come as no surprise.
Yep, and the impacts on childrens’ education were pretty much ignored too.
I suppose you also think that the death stats are padded with people who died of other reasons but were Covid positive?
If so, then the median age of deaths being 83 may correlate with......median life expectancy. So did they die of Covid, or with Covid?
Had both strains, Delta in the USA, Omicron in NZ and sorry there was absolutely no difference. The vaccines were not effective against any strain, people's improved immunities through infection were.
The vaccines were not effective against any strain
100 million doctors, scientists, virologists and medical researchers were wrong. Fossil lover knows better 🙄
Fitzy, the 100 million experts you mention (I know a couple) are all indoctrinated into the same religion of western world medicine and it is killing people. They are not wrong in their science, your doctors, scientists and virologists just do not understand 'Health', they kill it.
Sorry to say but your personal experience means jack shit.
About as much as democracy means to the left.
The Absolute Risk Reduction was pitiful for the vaccines. Certainly not worth putting a country under house arrest while waiting for them to be developed and rolled out. We should have just looked at the Diamond Princess data at the start and got on with our lives.
"...Although the RRR considers only participants who could benefit from the vaccine, the absolute risk reduction (ARR), which is the difference between attack rates with and without a vaccine, considers the whole population. ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs: 1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1·2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·2% for the J&J, 0·93% for the Gamaleya, and 0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)0006…
Doesn't seem like natural immunity worked too well for you then...?
Nonsense noncents
Global excess deaths during the pandemic are now over 28 million.
Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-esti…
How many of these excess deaths were vaccinated?
So 22 million odd due to things other than covid?
Interesting. What could have casued all that other excess death? And was it worth it?
17–100 million according to wiki.
HW2 never lets the facts get in the way of putting the boot into the government. I'm not sure I would buy a house off this guy.
Worldometer 6650453
To you anyone who says white is white is a liar etc
I said at the outset of Covid that the death count was so perverted it could not be relied upon, that we would not know the real story until we could look back at overall mortality. All cause would not tell us cause, but it would show patterns. I though it would take 5 years, but it can be seen in the data already.
I go direct to the CDC and view all cause mortality. NZ doesn't publish it like that, which is why I put it to David to look into it. I'm sure he has an account with statistics NZ.
CDC data shows a serious anomaly from 2021 when deaths are broken down by age. That the excess death count in 2021 was caused by something that wasn't Covid is a hypothesis that is reasonable to pose, and worthy of investigation.
All cause mortality in the USA is up by about 8-9% still. No one is talking about it. The not talking about it, the not asking questions that need to be asked, is the real change in society. And we call that science.
And why the hell is the CDC a quasi private-public corporation reporting deaths. OK government (taxpayer) pays, we reap the rewards, wink, wink.
Who are you referring to. It sure is not me.
Spanish flu, mmmn. Trench warfare, living on rations for years, no nutrition, rat invested, always saturated, always wet, diarrhea prevalent, no heat, stress of longing family, the girlfriend, wife, children, wondering if I will ever see them again as a bomb goes off in the distance. And who died. The immune compromised returning soldiers. Interesting.
Broadly speaking, by the numbers, no. Would suggest, relatively speaking pro rata by population, such as the black death too would out rank. Not only the politicians though. The strident clamouring of the majority of epidemiologists, hitherto unknown, suddenly famous created an enormous body of doomsters fed by a media frenzy. However the physicians mostly would argue that the lockdowns etc first, then the vaccines prevented a far greater number of mortalities. The pros and cons of that debate likely will last for centuries.
It just wasn't that bad, ramped up by daily covid reporting and singular focus. A few here, (yvil), tried to change the narrative and focus to no avail
As we sat in Auckland, locked down, watching, was it the All Blacks vs Wales, in a packed Cardiff stadium, with NO MASKs, the Narritive sort of fell apart... I suspect the same has happened to China via the Football World Cup. Can't have reality disputing the Narritive so openly can we.
Probably a good shakedown and wakeup call just how unprepared we were and hopefully we will have better plans for when the real killer virus hits, as they historically seem to.
Quite right. Our freezing works and dairy factories went flat out all through level 4 lockdown. No big Covid deal. Why was that? My son's town had 90% of the workers still working right through as they were all essential, or supported essential businesses. The only ones staying home were teachers and civil servants. Nobody else cared particularly.
Stop the fear. A virus needs a host to survive, so has no intentions of killing. If a virus was to kill, it runs out of hosts too quickly and dies out.
LOL, do we need to drag up the list of viruses that do kill, and have killed thousands/millions. Eventually they tend to mutate to less lethal variants, but they frequently start off as damn lethal in naive populations, and sometime they do indeed kill themselves off by killing all the viable hosts, but thats not likely to happen so much now that human populations travel far and frequently.
This is a recipe for complacency at a time when we are more at risk from viral pandemics than ever, whether they be naturally occurring or man-made. Covid was not hugely deadly in the grand scheme of things - the next one could be much, much worse. There are viruses out there with fatality rates in the tens of %, not the fractions of a %. The virus dying out is not that fantastic if it is achieved by us dying out in the process.
This is true.
Our first stop might be to stop making dangerous viruses in labs?
Depends on your perspective.
The reason we did not have a lot more deaths was because of our response and obviously we developed vaccines.
Our political masters did not fail us.
Lockdowns? I am sure they had lockdowns in 1918 and 19
The political masters were already failing us before the pandemic struck. Jacindas stardust has little substance and voters are realising that
Schools used to close when Polio flared in NZ.
After all our government cost us, we still have the virus, and multiple jabbed people are catching it, and either staying well, getting sick, or dying. Meanwhile, our herd immunity is coming in to effect. The death blip could be caused by Covid, which some perspectives would say means that the vaccines don't work, or the blip could be caused by other deaths, caused by our government's reaction to Covid. It will probably be revealed some time in the future which one actually caused the blip.
But the vaccines did not stop transmission or infection, so did not work. The reason we did not have more deaths is because Covid-19 is not deadly to healthy people. As any virus.
Because it was a novel virus with no vaccine, NZ could not risk overwhelming our health system, which happened in many countries. We had to lockdown until the vast majority were vaccinated.
Although I think we went a bit OTT with the definition of vast. Auckland should have been out of lockdown at 70 or 80%, instead we suffered an extra month waiting for people who didn’t give a crap to be vaccinated, and then we went to red level with a supposed high chance of catastrophe despite 90% vax.
It’s hard to judge the government, they were just listening to the supposed experts who seemed to be anything but.
Just a suggestion but a negative political element was at play here too. There seemed to be an almost fanatical aura of having control quite liking it and not that willing to relinquish it. For example the initial disciplines put around the Xmas exodus from Auckland. Road checks ( flashed out by Hipkins) that the police finally had to come out and say were impossible. Heck they were even going to have launches in the harbour to check the yachties at one stage. Before that there had been the instance(s) in the Coromandel for which the Director of Health assumed an almost stalag commanding style. There are many studies of human behaviour demonstrating deteriorating standards of morality when in control of others. Perhaps all politicians have a degree of wanting to control which is part of why they want to be politicians, and perhaps that perspective got away from this government and their agents, for just too long?
To be fair the public wanted a lot of that, why should we be locked down while mr rich jumps in his car to the coromandel or Queenstown.
A German chap said that the Nazis did what they did because as well as Hitler, they had a whole lot of little Hitlers. So do we, just waiting their chance.
That's a harsh thing to say about Luxon & Seymours disciples waiting for their chance...
What drivel. The worst PM and Government in living memory almost got away with entrenchment. Words can’t express the disdain and utter contempt I have for them and those that apologise for them. I would feel safer in a real war than with this lot.
Mortalities by the millions of obese, diabetic, heart diseased, cancerous individuals bought about by western world diet and not Covid.
Breakfast briefing; China pivots from pandemic control to economic repair
Not that anything is going good in China, now US demand for Chinese made goods is apparently collapsing. Add one more headwind to the hurricane. Lockdowns there aren't the problem (they are the govt's response to what is). Link
Remember all those prices that went up because oil was expensive?
They're going to come back down now, right?
Right?
Fuel prices are coming down.
Most other things have a higher proportion of input costs than just oil.
Now that diesel cost is falling fast, transport companies will drop their charges as well ... yeah right
The govt loves inquiries. Hold an inquiry if they don't hold an inquiry into freight rates.
Which major transport company just reported super profits... Mainfright. As well as Mainfreight
Yes they do. It's called Fuel Adjustment Factor. I receive emails every month with the adjustment to base freight rates from various freight companies.
E.g. one transport company had a 20.38% FAF in November, December is now 16.09%.
No, they (with the slight aside that coal is alle same oil) can't.
That's where economics was dead wrong, all along. Trace those costs, and they'll always end up at an energy-demand. Soddy nailed it in 1925/6
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-for-the-history…
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/5973390-wealth-virtual-wealth-and-d…
Saw a gret piece on electric cars, and how even once we get 500 Million of them, it will have only impacted 20% of our oil use at that point. Inflation going to go nuts once we actually get short of the black gold.
We are not running short of the black gold any time soon. When the Club of Rome was written proven reserves were about 300 billion bbl - 1/6 of what they are now.
"Total US oil liquids output in September clocked in at 19.502mb/d, surpassing the previous all-time high (January 2020) by 265kb/d."
"The world’s proven oil reserves total 1,757 billion bbl, up from 1,735 billion bbl a year earlier, according to Oil & Gas Journal’s annual assessment. Global proven natural gas reserves are now estimated at 7,456 tcf, up from 7,297 tcf surveyed last year."
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/New-Mexico-Will-Over…
https://www.ogj.com/exploration-development/reserves/article/14286688/g…
You are aware Profile, I hope, that oil is not breeding underground.
There are various way to look at the issue. Two year outlook ? Twenty year outlook? Thousand year outlook?
My frame for thinking about it is very long term.
Very long term we won’t need fossil fuels. Our capability with electricity has improved so much in the last 20 years, I can’t see any reason that won’t continue. Even just the noise and local air pollution caused by fossil fuels is a pretty big turn off compared to electric, it will become the next smoking where we put up with all that smoke when the majority smoked, but once the majority didn’t we quickly decided it’s rank and banished it.
Beggars belief...
How do you think copper and other vital aspects of creation/storage for your 'electricity' will be extracted and processed? Oh right, with 'electricity'.
Are you trying to say that mining machinery can't run on electric motors?
How is steel for machinery made? How is copper for electric motors extracted/processed? This is by no means a personal attack, but do you also think that food comes from supermarkets.
My point is that there will be no 'electricity' without fossil fuels. Unlike PDK, I don't think we are at the cliff just yet, but what we do have left has to be used wisely. You need high quality coal to produce PV panels for example, which will only last a couple of decades. The solution to all this is no doubt complex but to say that the future will be 'electric' and without fossil fuels is incredibly naive.
You are talking about how machinery / copper / etc is currently made, I am taking about how it could be made with technology advances in the future. Sure it may not happen, but I’m fairly sure it will.
Just 30 years ago barely anyone had a computer, now we all have a super speedy one in our pocket, somewhat due to incremental advances such as CPU and memory, but also new tech like lithium batteries.
There is plenty of energy in the sun, tides, atoms, etc, we just need better ways of extracting and storing it, and we are improving all the time. I would expect a giant leap in generation or storage in the not too distant future.
currenly steel is typically made with coal blast furnaces but the technology exists to make it with hydrogen powered DRI furnace to extract the iron and then an electric arc furnace to make the steel.
You were replying to a comment about "very long term". This is by no means a personal attack, but to suggest that existing technologies will not be scaled up to replace fossil fuels beggars belief.
they do now - sort of - hybrids
Well it could definitely be done with electricity or even hydrogen. Or maybe we will still use some fossil fuel, but it could be say 5% of what we do now.
And just how do you know oil is not abiotic?
Can someone check my maths:
1757bn / 19.502mn / 365 days = 246 years (of reserves left at present day consumption)
and
(1757bn - 1735bn) / 19.502mn / 365 days = 3 years (of extra reserves 'added' in the last year at present day consumption)
Global consumption is about 100mbpd so divide your answers by 5 to give the rates at current consumption. So 1757b/100m/365 = 48 years. Add in 3% growth per year and that number falls to 30y. At 5% growth it is only 25 years.
The extra oil reserves added is in one year is less than one year's consumption at current rates.
Thanks, I did not think the figures presented up-thread made sense. Further investigation indicates that 19.xxx mn bpd is the 'US only' consumption figure and, as you point out, 97 - 100 mn bpd is the global figure.
Fruit and veg seem to have. Broccoli just $1.29 at supermarket this week. Finally seeing seasonal prices and they seem even better than last year to me. Heineken is $37 for 2 doz at new world, cheapest I’ve seen it in ages. Costs over $50 AUD over the ditch.
That’s about all I buy from the supermarket so not sure about other prices.
Taking the piss 🤣
Does broccoli and Heineken constitute a balanced diet these days?
as long as you have pizza with it.
I would have thought Heineken would ruin the broccoli.
Heineken ruins everything. Steiny Classic on the other hand
It’s probably healthier than most the country's diet. My wife does the general shop, I cook in the weekend so just buy a bit of veg and meat and of course beer.
those are both loss leader 'christmas sale' prices and if you didn't pick up your milk and bread while you were there then they made a small loss on you (but possibly brand goodwill will bring you back to spend another time)
Sticky prices and wages in a fiat currency world means there is a bias towards inflation rather than deflation.
Houses not proving to be very "Sticky". Barfoots yesterday. 12 Claude Road Epsom, top bid $3.3 Million (Passed in), sold in 2021 for $5.1 Million. Sold in 2017 for $3.2 million. Are we going back to 2016/17 levels?
bidding stopped about 30% below CV with an RC for 8 dwellings... yes this is exactly where the bid is stopping for this type of site, this is the fourth in 5 days. Dev sites 30% off cv, they were 10% min over CV Nov 21.
House near us wanting 1.3 mil has sat in the market for ages. The house is pretty bad so they basically want $1.3 mil for 800m2 of sloping land. Would have easily got that 1 year ago, now I think the best chance is for a FHB or similar, but hard to see it being worth much more than $800k with all the work needed on the house.
Actually it seems to have been pulled. Ad said must sell, I guess they meant must sell at last years prices.
Must sell for the RE to get his Commission. Guess the owners aren't quite so keen.
Can they be done for false advertising? Would a business get away with saying "everything must sell", implying the price will meet the market, and then not doing so?
As we know, for most buyers it's not what they want to pay that matters, but what they can pay. And usually, there's a bank saying what that amount is.
2017? Maybe.
There are still many years of sporadic FOMO embedded in prices in the years before that need to be teased back out.
On a yield basis there is a lot of merit for 2010-12.
The Fed announced the first round of QE, known as QE1, in November 2008. It officially kicked off in March 2009 and concluded a year later, with the U.S. central bank purchasing $1.25 trillion total in mortgage-backed securities, $200 billion in agency debt and $300 billion in long-term Treasury securities
They kicked off kicking the can a long time ago, interest rates have been falsely low ever since.
As advised by the Propeller Property Ad, the way to make money on Property is to buy 7 years ago and sell now!
Best Property Spruiker Ad Ever
Out of curiosity, I checked:
Converting our current rent ($1k/week) to a mortgage, with stress test at 8.5% and a 10% deposit over 30 years: we can offer up to roughly $630,000.
Houses in our local area are still listed for twice that, and the house we live in is another million again.
I'd say there's a wee way to fall yet.
Really depends on the area you are looking at. My mother just bought a house in Silverdale, I though she paid about $100K to much based on all the negative news, however data shows that sales in that area is still 12% over the current RV so what she paid was pretty much par for the course. If you want a nice house in a nice neighbourhood then you still have to pay for it.
Of course not. But they shouldn’t go up much!
It's interesting how recent massive income tax & GST take resulting from increased wages/salaries bracket creep & price increases aren't seen by the Govt as "windfall profits"
There really is no reason, no legitimate excuse, why it has taken the BIS until 2022 to publicize what was known FORTY years ago. Again, this "debt" was never "hidden", corrupt Fed/central bankers lied about what they've been doing for decades. https://youtube.com/watch?v=dm0fhu
The BIS paper on the ''$80 trillion of hidden US debt'' is making the rounds. It's really important, and it deserves the attention of every macro investor. A thread. Link
This is the biggest non-story since Y2k. There is no hidden debt, similar to believing derivatives are real debt.
So we would all be better off if we had one global currency?
It was called Gold..... it worked well as its very hard to print it.
Yield on US 1 month T-bill is free-falling. Something is happening.........
A scramble for the most pristine collateral. Trading well below the Fed's interest rate floor set at 3.80%.
Wow are corporates starting to get nervous of holding cash in US Banks, could be offshore as well......
Chart looks more like a technical break of support, perhaps the algos are getting out, it's been rising on that trend line sine may.... so its either technical or stress, right now my vote is technical.
free fall? What am i missing here, looks pretty flat to me, slow declining trend.
Thought is was down 22bps for the day from 3.87 yesterday when I wrote this. For reference I was using https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-ra…
Latest from Fonterra, earnings up expected dividend end up 5-10c. Milk price mid point at $9.
At least part of the economic engine is still working.
I wonder if the rellies will say it could be better
What happens when you outsource/bludge your energy and defence - if only NZ could learn some lessons from this. Europe sits on a sea of natural gas yet is committing energy harikiri on the alter of net zero.
https://www.ft.com/content/50a462b3-0e8b-49e1-873c-9505760d4a66
“It outsourced its security to the US, its export-led growth to China, and its energy needs to Russia,” she wrote in June. “It is now finding itself excruciatingly vulnerable in an early 21st century characterised by great power competition and an increasing weaponisation of interdependence by allies and adversaries alike.
...The wind industry says Germany must put up 6 wind turbines a day to meet the 2030 goal, requiring as much as 3,300 tonnes of steel per day — or nearly half an Eiffel Tower. Yet between January and June of this year, it managed a rate of less than one turbine a day. Markus Steilemann, head of the VCI, the German chemicals trade body, says that faced with such hurdles, Germany risks “turning from an industrial country into an industrial museum”. Asked about Steilemann’s comments, Habeck, the economy minister, tells the FT the situation the chemicals industry finds itself in is “undeniably challenging”. But he implies it only has itself to blame. “They didn’t diversify their energy supply but relied on Russian gas,” he says. “And that has now turned out to have been a mistake.””
More on the jet fuel rationing - pilots never seen this anywhere. Amateurish country.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jet-fuel-rationing-pilots-say-its-a…
They just need to be Kind until 2024......
When we will hold a working group, with iwi input and overall governance, to access the issues of having no storage. Then we can stand up a strategy group to formulate an action plan, after receiving submissions and a rigorus public consultation process.
We can then apply for a resource conscent to ensure said "Tanks" do not damage the cultural landscape. Thus we will need a cultural impact assessment by the iwi organisation.
The building tanks project will require iwi consultation to ensure it had consulted iwi and hapū with an interest in the project, to determine how kaitiakitanga could be integrated into the project, to mitigate the cultural effects of the project and to build a relationship that would result in positive outcomes for the hapū, and the broader community and the environment.
This is all important as "For decades, our people have fought to exert their kaitiakitanga and tikanga to safeguard our maunga, awa, whenua and moana so that the next generation don't have to. "
Or we could have quickly banged up some tanks in the National Interest, before we demolished the Refinery. Which WE SHOULD NOT HAVE DONE.
That'll work,NZ Inc is good at 'banging up' things that turn out to be white elephants.
Agree we should still be refining at Marsden...but that's what happens when you give Nationally significant assets to private enterprise.
I used to service comms equipment at Marsden early in my career. Wow that site had great process control and health and safety regs. Nothing about that site was banged up. The site induction was very serious. Ever seen a refinery on fire?
Back then things used to be run by professional registered engineers.
I wasn't referring to Marsden being banged up, just your flippant remarks that new storage,an asset of national importance could be 'banged up'.
NZ has a history of building major assets to meet yesterdays requirements or not building them at all.
Govt. out of business and business out of govt. - if the market fails to deliver why should the govt. bail it out
Why can't the Aviation industry sort it's own av-gas - a few tanks either end of the runway should do it.
who is this "we" kimosabe? are you a socialist? let the capitalists sort it out.
From what i read here on covid,it seems it is a case of "my google search down the rabbit hole dug by my bias reinforced algorithims" holds more weight than yours...
US 10 year T bond down 3 percent and WTI down 2.5 percent overnight
All points to slowing inflation, lower interest rates and soft landing
Santa Claus rally this Christmas 🥳
As always the Santa Claus rally will be credit funded this year ….. what could possibly go wrong
On at least half of your posts, you need to put a health notice. Warning that someone could become severely distraught as a result of taking them seriously.
Tongue in cheek, hahah. Time to relax.
HW2. You could put a disclaimer..
-7 spruiker
although to be fair to Raj, is that his name? His commentary has been pretty decent lately. He makes some good points. Quite balanced. You understand where I’m going here HW2
Feel free to butt out
Why not look at the original post and respond to that instead of your tiresome trolling
US 10 year T bond down 3 percent and WTI down 2.5 percent overnight. All points to slowing inflation, lower interest rates
I left off the last prediction for your sake
Ask yourself why the curve has inverted HW2. is it because the world is Tip-top? We are not in recession yet, if you go back to the GFC, we are at the point where subprime looked stressed... we are not yet at the point where subprime loans started falling over and we started to see general contagion into larger bank balance sheets and mainstreet mortgages/property prices.
Inverted curves of this intensity are not a harbinger of an impending soft landing.
Effectivly they indicate that a large ammount of money has been wagered on the futures market, that things are going to get bad quickly. Bad enough the FED is going to be cutting.
These are not $100 bets at the TAB.
I get all of that. You have heard that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Seems you only like that statement when it suits you.
Nothing is a dead cert ITguy. When theres a dead cert like a mesmerised chant from AB fans I usually start to worry. So I dont mind being the voice in the wilderness as I've sadly seen it many times
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
Actions speak louder than words
While you're busy spinning on interest.co.nz you're also out chasing properties. That speaks volumes ITGuy
Enjoys the beers guys
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