Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets are pricing much lower yields for NZ Government bonds, partly in response to international market shifts.
But first, the turn in US economic fortunes still hasn't shown up in their weekly jobless claims data. They came in low last week and lower than expected. There are now 1.9 mln people on these benefits.
But weaker conditions are showing up in more factory data. However the Fed's monthly Beige Book surveys came in less negative than expected, noting "moderate to modest" expansions across the country, in their labour markets, and for prices.
The Philadelphia Fed's updated survey stayed slightly negative in January, although less so than for the prior month.
American building consent and housing start data were both slightly lower in December, but not significantly so. Essentially they are both settling out at pre-pandemic levels.
The latest data on long term investment flows in and out of the US shows larger inflows than were expected in December, and for the year.
It is tough being a bear on the US economy.
But you are being helped by Republicans in Congress who are refusing to pass a budget resolution. The US Treasury has started its 'extraordinary measures' to keep the US Federal Government from defaulting on its payments. Those are likely to drag on for many months yet in response to their pathetic game of chicken.
In Japan, exports rose more than expected in December, and imports rose less than expected. But they still ran a record high trade deficit, which is an historically unusual position for them.
The ECB says inflation in Europe is still way too high. They signaled they are determined to push rates into restrictive territory “for long enough” to return inflation to their 2% target.
In Australia, consumer inflation expectations in rose to 5.6% this month from 5.2% in December, though a general moderation in expectations has been evident in recent months as consumers appear to be responding to higher interest rates, according to the Melbourne Institute who do this survey.
And staying in Australia, the December labour market data was a minor disappointment - mainly because November data was revised lower. Full time employment rose +17,000 when +34,000 was expected. Part-time positions retreated -32,000 when they were expected to expand +25,000. Most analysts seem to think the December hesitation is a 'one-off'.
We should also possibly note that the verdict is in; fake meat has been just another fad, and won't 'save the world'. Consumers are wary of highly processed, chemically altered foods.
Container shipping costs were virtually unchanged last week, although bulk cargo freight rates continued their sharp falls and are back at or below their long term averages, which given inflation, makes them very cheap again.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.42%, and up +3 bps from yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is still inverted at -71 bps. And their 1-5 curve is still inverted at -119 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is still inverted at -104 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down -2 bps to 3.43%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -1 bp at 2.95%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is starting today at 3.99% and down a sharp -15 bps.
We perhaps should note that market pricing now favours a +50 bps OCR hike on February 22 by the RBNZ, shifting down from the prior +75 bps bet.
Wall Street has started its Thursday session with the S&P500 down -0.5% in late trade. Overnight, European markets were all down about -1.7%. Yesterday Tokyo closed down -1.4%. Hong Kong ended down -0.1% and Shanghai closed up +0.5%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session up 0.6%, and the NZX50 ended lower, down -0.3%.
The price of gold will open today at US$1921/oz and up +US$15.
And oil prices start today little-changed at just over US$81/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$86.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar has softened overnight, now at 63.9 USc and down -½c. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -¾c at 59 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71, and down -50 bps since this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price is stable now at US$20,939 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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143 Comments
Looks like there are a few political pundits saying Ardern’s departure could be an upside for Labour’s election chances.
Not sure I agree with that. It might have some veracity though if Labour made some bold policy shifts to accompany the leadership change, but they won’t….
even so, in this day and age, rightly or wrongly, you need a leader with some charisma and there is none in the Labour Party once Ardern leaves.
Seems there is a distinct lack of 'charisma' across all the parties at the top.
Really ? ... Robbo seems to me to be a charismatic chap ... and easily the best person to take over as PM ... a lost moment for Labour that he's ruled himself out ...
You've always needed charisma and this is the inherent flaw in voting based on the leader; charismatic people may not be good leaders or decision makers. Their main attribute is winning people over or begging for forgiveness.
Very true. Just to go a little further Ardern has been I think, unique too.
I think that the biggest mistake she made was the Covid19 mandates ... that split us into a 2 tier society ... a minority who were unconstitutionally forced out of their jobs , treated as pariahs ...
... the hatred towards Jacinda ramped up exponentially after that ... her actions were the very opposite of her words , " let's be kind ! " ....
..her very big overseas Kiwi fan base died at that point. Many very angry ex-pats - and rightly so, some of the decisions were ridiculous.
> Their main attribute is winning people over
You want the country to be run by someone that can't get the people to follow them? Good decisions are useless if you can't get people to follow them, rife for factionalism and infighting.
I want the country to be run by competent decision makers relying on best practice and information. I don't have to like or follow them.
Yep someone who has worked at corporate level not in a fish & chip shop. Amazing isn't it, I have had to do written test for several jobs I applied for in the past and that was for just roles starting as low as internal sales and yet you can just walk and talk your way into PM of New Zealand. Someone responsible for running the whole country and not qualified to do it.
I don't agree with the argument that working at corporate level make for a better politician. It's not a business where you can make 10 percent of workforce (population) redundant,
I hope its a bit like that TV series Yes Minister. The civil servants who are qualified in their field run the country in spite of the politicians.
She worked at a Fish and Chip shop at High School. Luxon flipped burgers at Merivale McDonalds, if we're going to compare like for like stages of life experience.
I have a greater trust & respect for politicians who've had a wide range of life experiences ... as a devoted fushnchup guy , I fully respect the folk who work in those manic environments ...
Auckland Central saw straight through Jacinda in election after election. Too flakey
Quite frankly, until recently she has had, by and large, a pretty 'protective press' in this country.
She was skillful at selecting who to do interviews with ... to avoid those who went " off script " and asked unrehearsed questions ( Barry Soper , Mike Hosking , Duncan Garner ) ... back in the day , Rob Muldoon did the same ...
.... Tom Scott never got the memo from Muldoon. What a fun press gallery that was on occasion.
A train wreck of a live interview with Ian Fraser on TVNZ lingers in the memory , too ...
My word though is not Mr Hoskings going to be, let’s say, frustrated to be coming back on air too late to broadcast the event itself, and all the attentive carry on. The stable doors are a-swing, and the Prime Minister is over the hills and far away.
I agree. This whole media, personality cult thing is totally out of hand.
I think that it was the main reason that she was appointed to the position instead of being experienced and skilled in managing the largest and most complex structure in the country, i.e. the whole country.
I feel deeply sorry for her because there is nothing so cruel as being appointed to a position that you are not yet anywhere near adequately skilled and experienced for with the result that despite all her heroic efforts, failure was a high risk and in the full glare of the public. (note that she did a lot better with covid because they formed a small team and were not prepared to be lead by the nose by the useless government servants. - another separate issue)
Labor have a real problem here. They tend to grow their politicians inside the government organizations without any experience in the real world. They need to engage more with people from the real world including the business world if they wand to develop rounded politicians with the right skills.
As for charisma. Hugely over rated and something that should be treated with suspicion. Kids who grew up able to charm themselves out of the consequences of their actions. The last (and possibly only for a long time) competent Labor PM was Clark. She had zero charisma and charm, but performed very competently until she became arrogant and pissed off the voters.
Getting back to this media, personality cult thing. Isn't that what is at the root of all the royal families problems? Trump? etc?
Chris Hopkins seems quite able?
Yes pleasant chap and capable. Nowhere enough charisma, though.
Bit loose with the truth perhaps? For instance - in answer to why health workers couldn’t be saliva tested “they don’t want them” and then of course the infamous front of the queue flippancy.
Might pay off. I like Hipkins because he doesn’t seem to be lying (even though he probably is). The others either blatantly lie constantly or just say nothing (no comment etc).
Yes, sincerity is a very good trait for a politician to have. And the really good ones learn how to fake that as soon as possible
I think a Hipkins/Allan combo might be quite strong. Allan has charisma in spades and is a natural orator.
Will be interesting if Labour can keep the female vote with Hipkins. If so they may also win back some male vote.
I thought front of the queue was Megan Woods' claim?
Can you imagine the vitriol that will be hurled at her about the way she looks?
. . yes , sadly , we're infantile at times ... all the way back to Rob " Piggy " Muldoon we've dished out personal abuse towards our leaders ...
Remember Helen Clark's 2008 election posters when her image was photo shopped to make her look decades younger & far prettier ...
... we need to get over ourselves when it comes to " looks " ...
... no , it was indeed Chris Hipkins ... the thing is , whoever becomes our new PM will only get 9 months in the job ....
Labour are still heading towards a crashing defeat in the Oct14 election ... whoever is leading them at the time will be ousted afterward ... I'd suspect a few current contenders are mulling this over ...
Indeed that is the usual fate. Mike Moore a classic example. It was patently obvious Labour was breaking ranks, a house divided well before the end of last year. Now the discord and fragmentation is out in the open, Whoever tries to put Humpty Dumpty back together again, is doomed to fail. The huge irony is that here is a party two and a bit years ago in an unprecedented and unassailable position of power who are now heading into an election in even worse shape and condition than National were in 2020. My take is that PM Ardern is quitting because the Maori faction in caucus have taken control, only report to themselves, and she has acknowledged that this is of a highly negative potential to the nation as a whole, if it should proceed much further. This might be evidenced in some way, if a new leader is chosen from within that faction but in my opinion, if that should happen, Labour will have written its own epitaph.
agree, I think JA asked them to consider over the holidays what they could compromise on..... when they said nothing she knew it was over so has left them to fend for themselves..... good move, David Parker was a bit faster.
Again ironic. All the power that has been grabbed will now be vaporised in October. To put it in Australian vernacular, they have white anted themselves.
Mike Moore was a fantastic guy , what a terrible shame the way Helen Clark shafted him , after he took Labour from a hopeless position to the brink of an election victory .
Yes he was. One of the best. Knew the scene from the factory floor to the boardroom. A big big heart for his country at large.
They didn't make any bold policy shifts when she was made leader either, they waited until after they were election to do that.
I think there'll be a fairly big desire in the media to maintain the 'extremely favourable' coverage approach to the Labour Party if the ongoing rewards are there for them.
Two days before New Zealand knows who Labour will choose as their leader and PM for another nine months. The significant Maori Caucus will be the factor. I for one have a theory we are going to see Nanaia Mahutu get the vote. And we will see a tank roll over any democratic norms.
Nah nah to Mahuta
Who needs what to get over the line. If the Maori caucus decides to vote as a bloc (nothing about the last few years suggests they won't) then that's a big chunk of the 1/3rd + 1 of members who can block a leadership appointment this Sunday and send it to the full membership. That's not in the party's best interests as it would be a prolonged sideshow compared to a one and done cabinet meeting.
A cynic would suggest that a candidate's best chance of getting through is to have the Maori caucus on board, either with their explicit support or ultimately being part of it. I can see the 'name a Maori female PM who can sit up until the election, just to break that taboo' as being a persuasive argument for a party that clearly doesn't care about anyone who doesn't already want to vote for them.
Jo Luxton has Māori descent, and Labour could get across the line with a number of people voting for Luxton instead of Luxon. ^^
Heaven forbid.
... and Willie Jackson as her deputy ... wow ... that duo would take Labour into some amazing places ....
Let's do this !
Why is no-one talking about Willie Jackson? He certainly has the ambition to snatch the job.
Woke up and checked the news to see if it wasn't just a dream and she is really shipping out.
She is! Hooray!
Financial malaise averted!
Lol
of course the resignation means next to nothing for day to day lives or the economy.
Be quick!
So True. Her legacy is misery, division and irreversible health damage in a scale never achieved before. She has made her master at the WEF proud. She will be well rewarded but will have to leave NZ for safety.
Are you sure you live in NZ? I would also check your pulse ..is it beating?
She will be well rewarded but will have to leave NZ for safety. are you and your mates rounding up a posse?
Well said....
https://www.weforum.org/people/jacinda-ardern
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/129898469/prime-minister-jaci…
Trudeau's another WEF Leader and his Deputy is on the WEF Trust.
Looks like the right have signed up a couple of new apparatchiks.
Looks like they've already been hit with the ban hammer. Can't see their profile pages, get a 403.
As if some unelected rich listers forum has any say in anything - if you actually read their goals they are quite laudable but yeah, hysterical nonsense.
Lots of people probably woke up this morning with a smile, and a HUGE empty space in their head where she used to reside.
But the chips on the shoulder must still be digging in..
No they were replaced by a big smile.
Be careful what you wish for.....
Kumara chips ? .... hmmmm .... it is Fry Day , yum ....
2.5 hrs later I've read to hear and can see I was wrong. Never seen so much amazing imagination and bollocks in a interest.co thread.
Just wait for this dust-storm to settle and then see a WHOLE lot more on the Labour-Greens side in Parliament decide they too will not seek re-election in October.
Starting to notice 'debtor days' pushing out, meaning I'm getting paid later on average by my clients. Caught up with an old friend yesterday who runs a decent sized dev/software company, and he reports the same.
Have also had my first cancellation of the year; I had been subcontracting some services to a larger firm. They had spent all of 2022 scrambling to hire enough staff, paying intermediate rates to juniors just to get bums on seats; now the MD has come back and said they've got too many staff as some projects have been paused their end, so effectively the headcount exceeds the workload and it will be problematic for them if a few projects don't get across the line as anticipated.
Could get ugly fast if companies are suddenly facing a much higher wage bill each month but revenues dry up due to projects going on hold.
These anecdotes are great.
yes it’s all very well to increase wages significantly when revenue is booming, quite another when revenue stagnates or drops significantly.
There will be a significant increase in unemployment this year.
Completely agreed.
The MD of the company I was talking about has basically said they'll bring me back if/when (but most likely when) they have to start letting salaried staff go due to an insufficient workload; it's a better deal for them at that point to pay me contractor rates for the work they need, as opposed to paying a much lower effective hourly rate for a salaried worker to sit around twiddling their thumbs.
The last 12 months or so have been particularly good for junior and intermediate workers who have decided to stick around in NZ. So many have been promoted or moved into higher positions prematurely in the same period.
Add to that companies hiring anyone with a pulse into roles that traditionally required certain skillset and a huge number of young Kiwis left school or uni early to become a part of the economy-wide hiring frenzy.
I expect all of these trends to gradually reverse as the economic slowdown starts to bite.
So where are all the immigrants going to work that Nat / ACT say we need to come in the country to ease the burden?
Isn't just National-ACT, Labour has massive hopes pinned on tourism-led economic recovery. By MBIE's estimate, the tourism sector has lost ~80k since its peak in 2019, so expect a huge influx of cheaper workers from overseas for the labour-intensive sector to recover to its former 'glory'.
Our broader immigration programme is very much like a pyramid scheme. More consumers in the domestic market means more businesses hiring from overseas to service this low-hanging fruit of growing demand at home.
Map our annual trade balances between 2013 and 2019 alongside net migration and you will see a troubling trend there.
This scheme is resuming in full blast with NZ having added 6.1k net migrants in Nov and will continue regardless of whoever is in power.
Talking to my younger lot (20-30s) one heck of a lot of this age group are heading off overseas (including one of mine).
I suspect we are currently in another brain drain of our youngest and brightest. I was shocked at the numbers of their friends/associates who have actually gone recently or are currently planning to (to be replaced by 501's no doubt).
They need to be quick before recession bites overseas and they find it much harder to land a decent job.
Should be ok if you work in health, education or certain areas of engineering.
Anything construction-related (not just builders and tradies, but also architects, surveyors, civil engineers etc) is going to drop away big time in places like Australia.
Depends on what your subsector within building or engineering. Capital investments in mining, particularly for materials critical to energy transition, are through the roof in Australia. The world will still need lithium and natural gas (and perhaps hydrogen) in a downturn.
For sure. I was talking more about residential construction.
..mine scored before she left. Major media outlet. Locals lost a rising very bright one.
..mine scored before she left. Major media outlet. Locals lost a rising very bright one.
Since the start of the pandemic, we've witnessed a net loss of 32k NZ citizens, yet we have done no stocktake of the skills and local market experience we're losing here.
The focus of business lobbies and government departments to dismiss this trend as unavoidable pent-up OE demand to instead focus on acquiring foreign workers. It is a wild goose chase because the best and brightest don't have much of a reason to move here and are better off taking their skills to the US or Australia.
I expect our economy to lean further on tourism and agriculture as a result of this looming brain drain.
Jacinda Arhern has shown us much, and one is knowing when to quit. Good on her. We may not have liked her economic path of sacrificing growth and a levelling down of expectations, and we know, as she does the mood has turned against her. But I for one salute her. well done Jacinda. knowing when to go is one of the bravest paths a politican can take.
As John Key also did. And as National also found out, finding a replacement isn't easy, as the current mediocre incumbent might illustrate.
7 years at The Top of any organisation is about it. After that, the capacity and enthusiasm to keep going wanes.
After a while you start having to be accountable for the actions/lack of actions you've made as a leader...this was going to be the year that Jacinda would really be scrutinized for what's she has done - perfect time to jump ship.
It's all easy, looking back. I doubt any of us can reflect on our times and think we always got it right, on even some of the biggest decisions that had to be made. But as you suggest, Leadership is about making the hard calls, and if it comes to a decision between two options, picking the 'right' one is often a matter of luck (or otherwise, there wouldn't be a choice to be made)
I know you guys think being a PM is a cushy job with high salary, but realistically it’s a 24x7 nightmare particularly with Covid. Isn’t it conceivable that she quit because she didn’t want to do it anymore? High inflation is a problem everywhere right now, maybe she didn’t want to take on that disaster too.
What has she done wrong exactly? She didn’t set the OCR! Maybe a bit over the top with the vaccination although she had to trust her advice as she is not a medical expert. I think they got most things right except kiwibuild and light rail. Can you elaborate?
Some examples are here https://laboursbiggestfail.co.nz/
Wow, that website makes me respect National even less than I already did. Maybe they'll come out with some policy soon so they can start to have a campaign that is based on more than "we aren't them".
... maybe that website is information gathering ... getting to know what's pissing people off ...
At least the Gnats are appearing to listen ... whereas the arrogance of the current government shows they don't care for our opinions ...
They fiddled with RBNZ's MPC remit and her govt reappointed the worst Governor in living memory, I don't think she gets to wash her hands of the issues the OCR is presenting us with, sorry.
They got a bunch of stuff wrong. Light Rail and Kiwibuild are the most glaring but they're 2017 policies. There was the regional fuel tax for Auckland that was immediately ruled out for other regions, which still left Auckland slashing projects in the wake of Covid even as the fund only paid out half of what they collected. There's the LGW debacle, which for some reason is being funded 60/40 by Govt while Auckland pays 50/50 for the CRL. There's the huge issues with 3 Waters before you even get to the co-governance aspect, the Polytech mergers, the persistence with the Health NZ centralisation while front line services plummeted ("Let's just not measure ED wait times anymore!") and TVNZ/RNZ merger. The total lack of consequences for rogue or underperforming MPs (Twyford, Jackson and ultimately Mahuta). No meaningful decline in child poverty over and above the trajectory we were already on pre-2018. There's just failure everywhere you look. Ultimately, the government did what they actually thought was important, but it mostly turned out to nest-feathering and a jobs-for-Wellington work scheme.
Very well put, and when I read that I think I have been a bit kind to Ardern in my assessment.
Her government changed the RBNZ mandate which gave a stronger mandate to cut the OCR in light of an employment threat.
*only* Kiwibuild and Light Rail? They were two of her major policies.
And child poverty has worsened.
I have sympathy in terms of the awful vitriol directed towards her. But I have to say on the policy front she was a failure, and she really didn’t help her cause because of that.
Not achieving Kiwibuild and Light Rail hardly make Ardern the worst prime minister ever etc. Bill English also wouldn't have achieved them but that is OK because National never wanted to try an fix housing or transport.
I certainly do not think she is the worst PM ever, far from it. Although lots of people do.
But she has led one of the worst governments in our history, that I am sure of.
But English and his party were quite good at achieving some of the key things they wanted to achieve, such as building lots of roads.
Not all the roads they promised:
https://thespinoff.co.nz/auckland/08-04-2017/a-ridiculous-road-to-the-p…
he EWL will cost $1.85 billion dollars, which is more than the $1.4 billion cost of the motorway tunnel project at Waterview – in its day the most expensive roading project in New Zealand history. The EWL has that dubious honour now.
But even at 1.9 there’s less to that BCA than meets the eye. In December 2015 NZTA published its case for the new road, stating the cost would be in the range $1.25 billion to $1.85 billion. The BCA was 1.9 at the low end of that range. One month later NZTA announced the upper end of the range, $1.85 billion, was more likely to be right. It said inflation accounted for the rise, and it also said the BCA was still 1.9. Since then it has consistently refused to produce a new BCA, saying the 2015 one still holds true and a new one will not be required until later.
How do they get away with that? With active government support. The East-West Link is on a fast-track. The minister of finance, Steven Joyce, has had it designated a Road of National Significance (RONS) which means it is not subject to some of the usual evaluations. A RONS, by definition, is an economically important road – even if the evidence for that is missing. Strange but true, the status overrides the facts.
Pretty easy when there is plenty of unemployment, not so easy when it is running at 3.3%.
In my opinion the biggest flaw with Jacinda was that she didn't like to be losing popularity, hence Labour found themselves flip flopping all over the place and never implementing anything. They should have just stuck to their principles and got stuff done and not worried about the next election.
I was interested in what Chris Trotter had to say about the resignation. It was mixed. He starts with praise, and the glowing hope that she gave so many people, but he closes with
She never appeared to grasp that announcing policy is not the same as implementing it. Press releases do not build houses. Speeches do not end poverty. In the end, it was Jacinda's constant failure to deliver that made it impossible for her to go on.
If you say "Let's do this!", then, Dear God, you have to do it!
That summed it up for me.
... lots of whooooie ...
Very little dooooie ...
100%
And your credibility and popularity will take a hammering if you don’t deliver on your rhetoric and promises. And the massive problem for her was she was so so so far away from delivering on her rhetoric.
No I see it as she is no longer willing to defend the indefensible. And she knew that time was up on her regime.
That's poor leadership on their part. NZ organisations has always been pathetic at business continuity planning and the Parliament is no exception to it. The National party have exhausted all their options and it appears Luxon is by far the best they have to offer. Swarbrick didn't run for leadership when Shaw was ousted. Robertson does not want to take Labour's reins.
Across the bench, Seymour hogs so much of the limelight that without him ACT might just vanish into oblivion.
National had " Wild " Bill English ... a very capable & pragmatic leader after John Key ... sadly , Winston Peters gave the running of the nation to a badly unprepared Ardern ... 3 years of English as PM may have been transformational ... the 4 laning of Auckland to Whangarei wouldve been well underway by now ... the Gnats " roads of national importance " programme was shovel ready & desperately needed ...
Well you can thank your lucky stars that National got started on the bit that is finally being completed this year or that would be another 7 years wasted.
The thing is , so many people are celebrating the exit of Ardern ( my anger towards her began in 2018 when without warning she shut down our offshore natural gas & oil exploration) .... but the policies they hated are still in place ... all the unpopular & barking mad ideas of Labour are still there ... including their anti fossil fuels nonsense ...
A whole lot of stuff can be reversed Gummy, some things are just wasted years and setbacks but with the right people we can start moving forward again.
Yes we can move forward into the past again with National
BE failed to acknowledge a housing problem. MSM yelled crisis. I would say serious. If BE had even said it's a problem and here is how we are going to fix it Nats would have stood a chance.
Inventor of QE On Bank of Japan's 'Policy Mistake' (Audio)
Richard Werner, the economist who first advanced the concept of quantitative easing in Japan, says the Japanese central bank will have to relent from its current policy of manipulating the bond market, as yields rise. The University of Oxford professor of banking and finance tells Bloomberg's Caroline Hepker and Stephen Carroll that the Bank of Japan made a policy mistake in ramping up bank credit creation in March 2020, when it wasn't needed.
As @ProfessorWerner explains when you bypass banking system & give money directly to households (single mother of 2 “made” ~$62k annualized to NOT work w/March 2020 Cares Act BEFORE one penny of 3 stimmy checks deposited) you do what YEARS of QE failed to do You create INFLATION
It is tough being a bear on the US economy. But you are being helped by Republicans in Congress who are refusing to pass a budget resolution. The US Treasury has started its 'extraordinary measures' to keep the US Federal Government from defaulting on its payments.
OOPS! Cost of insuring against US default hast jumped. 1y CDS price now trades at 69bps. Link
No surprise there. Not really news. This happens at most debt-limit standoffs.
- CDS change in value over their lives as the credit quality of the reference entity changes, which leads to gains and losses for the counterparties, even though default may not have occurred or may never occur. CDS spreads approach zero as the CDS approaches maturity.
- Either party can monetize an accumulated gain or loss by entering into an offsetting position that matches the terms of the original CDS. Link
We should also possibly note that the verdict is in; fake meat has been just another fad, and won't 'save the world'.
Well colour me surprised.
Next up: carbon credits, EVs, and the "hydrogen economy".
I can confirm EVs are in fact pretty bloody good. Now the only reason I go to a petrol station is for a pie and an energy drink, and even then the servos are cottoning on and installing 75kw+ chargers.
That's great for you personally, but they're still not a solution to the world's environmental problems.
Why? The car I was driving was safe, but expensive for me to run and getting on. It's been relegated to 'garage queen' until I decide to sell it or keep it as a project car. Now those miles I used to do on 98 are now being done on renewable energy.
It's a pretty good way for people who don't have many options about where or when they travel to cut a big chunk of their personal carbon footproot out. Perfect enemy of good enough etc.
Although it's better than nothing (only just), it's nowhere near good enough, and the problem is that it breeds complacency by convincing people they're "doing their bit" by buying an EV, when what we need is real change. Real change is going to be uncomfortable, and require actual sacrifice.
Driving around in the latest luxury car, sipping iced lates through stainless steel straws, or washing your clothes on cold is not actual sacrifice. But it does make you feel better about yourself, and that's all most people are interested in.
Where do the gas guzzling SUV's go ? ... after someone has grabbed the swanky Tesla & the massive rebate that comes with it ... what happens to their ICE car ... still in the motoring pool of NZ , still being driven around , except with a new owner ... still chugging 91 or diesel ...
But their 2010 car was sold and replaced a clapped out 1998 model that was both a gas guzzler and had about as much structural integrity as a wet McDonalds bag, and thats been sent off to the scrap yard for recycling. Eventually (in 4-10? years) they will sell their 2022 Tesla and that will replace someones 2014 gas guzzling SUV.
Warranty on an NZ-new Tesla is 4 years. Once the warranty runs out they're not going to be economical to own, so most people will get rid of them at that point and buy a new one. They're too expensive to fix. Nobody will be driving around in a 10 year old Tesla.
Buying a new car means producing a new car. The steel industry is one of the world's biggest polluters. The CCP shut down all steel plants in the area for their recent 30th anniversary celebrations, to ensure a nice clear sky for the cameras. It's hard to overstate the amount of pollution vehicle manufacturing creates (and that's before we even start looking at the batteries).
When the lifespan of your vehicle is so short, and you're having to build new ones all the time to replace them, you need to consider more than just what's coming out of the exhaust pipe when calculating your carbon footprint.
Wow, thats a load of complete nonsense.
The warranty on most combustions cars was 4 years or less, yet the average age of cars in the NZ fleet was 14 years last I heard. They don't implode the day the warranty expires. And the battery and drivetrain warranty on a new Tesla is 8 years/160,000kms (or more for the higher spec models), not 4 years. The general warranty is 4 years, but that doesn't exactly matter, wheels, suspension and brakes are much the same as any other car.
Nobody will be driving round in a 10 year old tesla.. hmm, better tell that to the owners of the 60 odd 2014 Tesla model S that are still on the road, apparently they only have two years left.
Why do some people just lose the plot and fail to even engage their brains when EVs get mentioned?
You're missing the point though. There's no sense in saying "but ICE cars are worse!" and pretending that means EVs are the solution to any of our problems. Neither option is sustainable.
I never said EVs are the solution to what you perceive to be the problems. It's objective truth they are better in pretty much every way emissions wise once they are past about 60,000kms-100,000kmsdepending on how your electricity is generated. There is no doubt they are better for the planet than continuing with combustion engines as we were. Either get on board, or get out of the way, and please stop talking complete bullshit like the nonsense above.
What you want is not going to happen without a fight from the people, we enjoy our freedom of movement.
What you want is not going to happen
It's not "what I want". It's what needs to happen for our planet to have a future. Attitudes like yours ensure we won't have one.
Really, promoting the benefits of a much cleaner technology to replace oil burners is a bad attitude now? Fool.
Buying a bike and a corolla and keeping both for 30 years is far better for the enviro than any ev. And yes, a bike and a corolla are up to that lifespan.
The ev owners I know have no qualm about clocking up as many k's as they can...in fact they seem to drive just for the sake of it - as if every k is of some planetary benefit!
They are a small part of the interim measures. The actual solutions are unpopular and bordering on unworkable: Less people, less cars, less flights, generally less freedom of movement beyond the range of public transport, and less convenience generally.
Hydrogen for cars is a fail, and will remain so, better batteries will replace the current lithium-ion batteries (which are already good enough for 80%+ of car users),
Hydrogen might be useful for aircraft and shipping, if synthetic or bio-fuel replacements for fossil fuels don't end up being cheaper to produce than hydrogen. Either way, expect the cost of moving goods and people long distances to go up significantly.
Some of the servos are installing real chargers, Z Rolleston has chargers, and a t least one of them is 180kW. Anyone not installing 100kW+ DC chargers these days needs their head read (assuming the electicity connection has the capacity.
RUC's coming EV's way next year;
- Light electric vehicles (gross laden weight 3500kg or less) are exempt from RUC until 31 March 2024.
Yep, most EV owners are well aware of it, and really don't care, still going to be massively cheaper than running a petrol car around town, and so much nicer as a commuter vehicle.
One rumour is they are coming everybodies' way, too many hybrids and particularly plugin hybrids that mean fuel consumption doesn't really correlate with road use, so easier to transition everyone to RUCs and drop* the fuel taxes.
*some of, you know they will not drop it all off fuel, they'll just call it something else.
And next is congestion charging...which may require transponders fitted to vehicles like Singapore or number plate recognition...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/126207685/auckland-congestion-charg…
or ULEZ like London, drive a dinosaur juice burner into the CBD and pay. Ultra Low Emission Zone - Transport for London (tfl.gov.uk)
Wellington Airport has number plate recognition regarding parking services. That's the way to go.
Surely that depends on how much the RUC is set at ? Also its guaranteed to go UP every year as more and more EV's come onto the road. Like I said months ago its a no win situation for road users, somebody has to pay for the road maintenance. I'm awaiting a new ICE car, not sure you would call an EV way cheaper, the difference in price between the two will pay for the gas I use for 5 years, how is that way cheaper ? If I actually wanted to save money I would get a Suzuki Swift, the price difference between that and an EV is a lifetimes fuel bill, in fact the difference in price invested in a
TD now would probably pay for my gas.
Why would RUC be at any different level than a light diesel?
You are paying a Per km charge for use of the road, and there is no fundamental difference between a 1850kg Mazda diesel SUV and a 1850kg EV in the cost of the road they run on (or a 2 ton petrol SUV if they do indeed put all cars on RUCs). And RUCs would have to be massive to make an EV more expensive to run in the city than any pure combustion car.
30c/kwh for electricity (much less if you choose a decent power plan) gets you 6.5kms or more. 4.6c/km max. RUCs at the non reduced price is 7.6c/km = 12.2 c/km.
Petrol at $2.20/L, back to $2.60ish once the rebate is ended, at best 12km/L in a non-hybrid. 21.6 @ $2.60/L. RUCs would have to double to match the petrol price. And if RUCs were to be doubled, then you'd think they'd be putting the road tax component of petrol up too. Hmmm.
Are you of the opinion that Republicans should increase the budget and in so doing the Money supply at this time??
They have to unless both sides can agree to how they will reduce spending.
Less defence?
Less roading?
Even less money for teachers?
Reducing defence is a no no , even for Democrats. Keeping it from rising , maybe.
The current Administration has more than halved their deficit from the previous Administration. Keep that going at the current pace and they may soon be back in surplus. Perhaps. Interrupting that progress is madness.
Yes, madness, but purposeful madness when the goal is a fast-track to anarchy.
Hollow victory through reduced defeat. They'll take it.
My take is that, somehow, DC is a libertarian- climate change skeptic-anti-republican-Democrat party supporter….
😂
I don’t agree with some of DCs ideas but at least he doesn’t align himself to one camp like almost every other person on this planet. I am very capitalist and not at all socialist but I hate crony capitalism and the anti change brigade, so that leaves me sitting on the fence between left and right too. It would be nice to have some single policy parties in NZ so you didn’t have to vote on a collection of ideas that may not align to you. Maybe we need single transferable vote.
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