Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with the big news of the day, the one markets are waiting for, is the US Fed review and its policy re-positioning. But that isn't released until 8am NZT, so this section of our report will be updated when these details are released. Markets are now expecting them to raise their policy rate by +25 bps, which is a downshift from the recent pace. That will take the upper bound to 4.75%.
Update: The US Fed has in fact now raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.75%, as expected. It also said more rate rises are likely because its battle against inflation isn't won yet. The NZD slipped slightly on the news, but bond rates barely moved. This Fed review confirmed market positioning.
But there is other important data out today in the US.
First, there were two parallel PMI reports out overnight for the American factory sector. The widely-watched ISM one slipped slightly further into contraction, but the new orders component was particularly weak. The internationally benchmarked Markit one reported that same decline, but this is a sharpish recovery for this survey. They say new order flows only softened slightly. For both reports, that is now three months of contraction.
US mortgage applications resumed their downward track last week, falling -9% to be -41% lower than a year ago. There was little change in mortgage interest rates last week.
This weekend we get the next US non-farm payrolls report and that is expected to show +185,000 rise which will be less for January than December. Today, the precursor ADP employment report said the gain for private sector payrolls was only +106,000 and that was far less than the +178,000 expected and the surprisingly positive December level of +253,000. To be fair, storms hit hiring in January and that will affect the non-farm payrolls report as well.
And the closely-watched JOLTS report of job openings was released for December today and that reports a continuing 'hot' labour market. These rose to more than 11 mln in surprising strength, when a fall to 10.25 mln was expected. There was no uptick in layoffs. In fact, this report is a major positive surprise.
In China, it is a fine margin but the private Caixin PMI survey did not confirm the official Chinese factory PMI with a shift to an expansion. The Caixin survey still reports a small contraction, but new orders shrank for the sixth straight month.
In India, the woes of the Adani Group mount, in the face of a highly critical report of the honesty of the company. Adani had pushed ahead with a capital raising from 'friends' and had claimed it was fully subscribed. But then suddenly it abandoned the transaction. That leaves it in a precarious position and their share price has fallen into the basement. One of the world's richest men is suddenly no more. No business can survive on distortions.
Meanwhile in New Delhi, the Indian Government released its 2023 Budget which includes a major boost for infrastructure spending. This is their final full budget before the 2024 general election. India is now the fifth largest global economy.
Japan's factory PMI stabilised in January, but that is still a small contraction.
The EU PMIs saw their manufacturing downturn easing further and cost pressures fading. But they are still reporting a small contraction.
EU inflation fell to 8.5% in January when a 9% rate was expected, and December recorded a 9.2% rate. Falling energy costs are certainly helping. Although this is a good result, tracking in a positive direction lower, we should note that 'core' inflation didn't budge.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.46%, and down -7 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is slightly more inverted at -72 bps. And their 1-5 curve is more inverted at -110 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is more inverted at -106 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down another -5 bps at 3.54%. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed at 2.95%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is starting today at 4.21% and unchanged.
Wall Street has opened it Wednesday session with a -0.5% fall ahead of the Fed. Overnight, European markets fell slightly, except Frankfurt which rose +0.5%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Wednesday session up a minor +0.1%. Hong Kong recovered +1.1% on the day. Shanghai was also up and by +0.9%. The ASX200 ended up +0.3% yesterday while the NZX50 ended with a good +1.0% gain.
The price of gold will open today at US$1924/oz and dipping -US$3 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today sharply lower, down -US$1.50 at just under US$77/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just on US$83/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is softish at 64.4 USc. Against the Australian dollar we start today much lower at 91 AUc and a -¾c fall as the Aussie dollar surges. Against the euro we are -½c lower at 58.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.9 and down -50 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price is now at US$23,000 and down a minor -0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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113 Comments
Maybe todays fed is buy the rumour sell the news
Meeting being held at the unfortunately named Jackson Hole 🤣
Of 1800 survey responders only 34 percent say 50bp or above
Update: markets are turning and dollar falling
sell the news, fed was never going to not raise...
Wait for it... raise Qtr percent
Yuss
When the property market improves you wont need to keep telling us the sky is falling.
How will you spend the extra hours
Sounds like you think the market will improve soonish.
What’s your pick for house price movements over ‘23?
I can tell you what it won't be, sorry to break the news to the downrampers. There is still plenty of time this year for the market to stabilise so no rush
Ok - so what will it not be?
I have told you
Not the sky is falling.
As things have started to turn most of the downrampers and anti spruikers have either disappeared or gone quieter. The forecast total carnage is failing to materialise, not saying there isn't any
Nice and vague!
I am reading between the lines, further falls of 5-10%?
House prices will drop another 20% ish over 2023 HM, there's no reason why 2023 would be better than 2022.
Is that based on reinz hpi Yvil
Why so confident
Man up HW2! What’s your call? % range is fine :)
What, so you can ride me.
Yeah nah
Lame. Keep it vague so your predictions have less chance of being laughed at later in the year!
I reckon you are all bravado and secretly worried.
btw do you need to be so crude? Some of the comments are really descending into the gutter…
You're so funny. Riding someone is not the definition you're thinking. Are your feelings hurt that I called you pessimistic 🤭
But have faith housemouse, come January 2024 when the results come in we will see if the sky fell down
The minister of finance is agreeing with me now, on the news today he said there will be no recession this year. How about that.
Nz will get through the way we always do, crawling along
It's based on cashflow HW2. More mortgages up for renewal in 2023. Picture yourself having a mortgage at 2.49% that you have to renew at 6.49 it's not going to be fun for long = more sellers & less buyers. So prices going down more over 2023
Prices falling to about the election, rising by the end of the year. Buy in 2023!
Even with the volume of fixed mortgages rolling off low rate terms, and OCR still increasing? Even with sales and prices tumbling and a 10yr record amount of housing stock on the market?
I honestly admire your upbeat, glass-half-full position HW2. It just doesn't seem to match reality
Many of the downspruikers have admitted things are better than their forecasts
I am not alone feeling more confident. But thanks I appreciate it.
I checked the crystal ball. OCR 0.5% here max. Could even be 0.25% but the ball was a little misty.
Who knows, the RBNZ is sticking to the old line of "shows up too late, stays too long, does too much".
That was bandied around prior 2008 GFC, as comes to the party etc. Somewhere here added - turns off the light, then can’t find the switch again.
0.5% max, his old mate gave him a 5 year extension on his contract, they have a bounce in the polls, he won't want that to reverse for his old mate Grant..look after the hand that feeds you.
And the closely-watched JOLTS report of job openings was released for December today and that reports a continuing 'hot' labour market. These rose to more than 11 mln in surprising strength, when a fall to 10.25 mln was expected. There was no uptick in layoffs. In fact, this report is a major positive surprise.
Just Make it Up: Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar As Labor Department Now Guessing What The Number Is
What a coincidence: just yesterday we presented the latest report from UBS economists showing that the job openings "data" collected and presented by Biden's Department of Labor is at best wrong (and at worst, manipulated propaganda meant to make the labor market appear stronger than it is), and that the reality is far worse than the BLS suggests, with real openings down 30% from the March 2022 peak and only 25% higher than the 2019 average.
No mention of ANZs mortgage rates drop? From stuff:
ANZ said it would drop its rates by up to 55 basis points. It has made no change to its six-month and one-year rates but reduced the longer terms.
Its special five-year rate, for borrowers with at least 20% equity, will drop from 6.84% to 6.59%.
Its 18-month special will drop from 6.64% to 6.49%.
Its standard five-year rate drops from 7.64% to 7.09% and its two-year standard rate from 7.34% to 7.05%.
ANZ are still outliers across the int rate curve, probably explains the record profit.
They must be a premium brand to justify the high (lower) mortgage rates...Sarc
"ANZ, they put the W back in banking"
This record won't have lasted past the first month of 2023.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/130758054/2022-worst-ever-year-for-weath…
Ouch. Climate change is going to hurt. A LOT.
305 mil up from 274. That’s just inflation isn’t it?
If their costs are mostly construction related, maybe it shouldve been even more.
Runaway global warming bedwetters never adjust for GDP. Not even on financial websites.
"Tracking progress on the economic costs of disasters under the indicators of the sustainable development goals"
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17477891.2018.1540343?journ…
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:s…
Wait for the predictable bleating about insurance premiums going up across the country because of 'something that happened in Auckland'.
Mine have doubled in Wellington after earthquakes in the South Island.
They already went up because of flooding issues elsewhere in previous years. A forewarning missed by those in charge of Auckland's drains.
Protip: Most people outside of Auckland rarely bring the place up in conversation. Too busy not living in suburban dystopia.
Reinsurance costs will be going through the roof as reinsurers get bled by the world wide claims. Insurance companies will be in strife soon, if they are not already. did it to themselves by being greedy.
Hasn't the whole FIRE industry had a decade of through the roof profits? But as soon as they need to cough up (hypothetically) 1% (adjusted for inflation) then they sting everyone 30% increase in costs?
I've said it before, its going to be cheaper soon to build an over engineered 'non-compliant' structure (and by non-compliant I mean don't pay the parasite fees), and pocket the left over dough to take a punt on the maintenance and/or rebuild.
Yes Insurance has been a major rip off for decades. they charges us as part of premiums for rare events, but don't retain a fund pool to cover for them when they occur. Instead they rake them off as profits. Parasites. And other industries that require insurance (including the Government) are complicit.
suburban dystopia...many cities come to mind in NZ when I read those words, not so much Auckland.
" A forewarning missed by those in charge of Auckland's drains." The Akl council must be smart. Why spend money on storm water drain maintenance and capex on storm water improvement when you can pass the cost onto the whole of NZ via increased insurance premiums?
Disclaimer. I don't live in Akl.
You're so right
Though not a conspiracy theorist myself. IMO the secret of success is doing the basics right.
Is it just me or did the Anti vaccination cohort pivot smoothly into anti-EV, anti-Climate change and, for some reason I struggle to fathom, anti transgender rights?
I know 4 personally, none of whom know the others. The similarities are striking. Two of them had minor flooding recently.
I wonder if the groups or sources of their information have also pivoted or expanded, or someone has made a viral video listing "woke" issues and that's been taken up.
Feeling disenchanted with one or several elements of modern life?
Here, join our special support group. We broadcast daily at 1080 on the AM frequency.
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Good to see MH back from six weeks off. Work a couple months then another two weeks off, rinse and repeat.
Yes, 'conservatives' have always been against those things, it was anti-vax that got added to the repertoire, not vice versa.
It was the US drug companies ' mates who coined "antivax". Anything to belittle people who may be opposing their moneymaking activities.
Sure it was. Keep pulling that tinfoil down tighter.
I think there's a bit of perspective needed here. It's easy to demonise a group of people by using the word "anti" to describe them.
They're not opposed to certain aspects of our COVID response, they're "anti-vaxxers". They're not sceptical about the government's approach to environmental sustainability, they're "climate-change deniers". They're not following science by insisting that there are two biological genders, they're "anti-transgender".
I don't think it's the big conspiracy you seem to think it is. It's just how some people deal with people having opinions different to their own; by demonising them.
Comes in all hot about labels.
Can't work out that gender is about identity and not biology.
Biological gender. Substitute that for the word "sex" if it's confusing you.
Gender is only about identity, there's no such thing as biological gender.
I don't sound like the one who is confused.
Here's something you can clear up for me, why are so many people vested in an argument about what is a matter of personal identity?
It sorta reminds me of evangelical Christian types, railing against homosexuality, eventually caught giving favours in a public restroom.
Editor, the quality and relevance of comments on this site have been in steady decline of late. Can we lift the standards back up a bit?
No the discussion is legitimate. Meanings of words is as important as intent.
But the root of this discussion is that too many people are too quick to judge others on who they are rather than being able to have an intelligent debate. Rank hypocrisy should be decried at every turn. Personally I don't stand on a street corner to shout to world that I like girls, and i don't see why anyone else should be expected to either. If it does no harm, what is the issue? Old religion based flawed perspectives are just hypocrisy. Do not accept them.
Well put. We have many contentious issues and some of the most vocal protestors haven't addressed them objectively and with an open mind.
Mostly it's more the personal affrontage.
Nobody is arguing about personal identity. You absolutely cannot have missed the debate around, for example, biological males participating in women's sport. The only reason there is even a debate to be had here is because the second anyone calls it unfair, people like you jump up and down and start trying to clam gender discrimination, even though gender has nothing to do with it.
So when we're having a talk about transgenderism, really you're only wanting to debate whether biological males can compete in women's sports?
That's more an issue for the administrative bodies overseeing whatever sport it is.
Also interesting how the most vocal group getting hot about that subject are neither females or trans.
The only point I'm trying to make is that recognising two distinct biological sexes, and acknowledging the physiological differences between them, does not make you "anti-transgender". The unfortunate fact of the matter is that some people can't seem to make that distinction, and use it as an excuse to be outraged instead.
I don't think there's anyone denying that people are born as biologically male or female.
Fun how in a subject where people are getting heated about pronouns that you're wanting to tell others how to label yourself.
"I'm gender neutral, please use my pronouns they/them".
"Uhh, isn't the correct gender neutral pronoun 'it' ?"
Honest question. If the person's personal pronoun is "they" do I say "they is" or "they are"? Because if it is the latter, they're not just calling personal pronouns, they're also calling personal verb tenses.
Language can be strange. "You see that person over there. What is their name?" "They are called Bob"
Is it also weird that you always takes the plural verb form: "Hi Fred, how are you going?"
Short answer: do what sounds more natural.
I usually equate "anti" to "willfully ignorant" - opinions not required.
Fair point and I agree with you.
What I was trying to say, clearly badly, is those folks are now vocally opposed/concerned/whatever about all of these items all the time on social media. It's as if the automatic "be triggered > share" reactive response has remained and expanded.
There's a financial benefit to keeping people outraged.
While NIWA was fighting on the front lines of the great patriotic war on climate change this ocker called it back in October. Maybe we need a Minister fro Volcanoes or at least a few working groups.
"How a Tongan volcanic eruption almost guarantees a 'flooded summer' for Australia’s east coast
This La Niña event is forecast to end early next year, but don’t be fooled into thinking drier weather is coming anytime soon.
...The quantity of water in the stratosphere in the southern hemisphere has increased by about 20 per cent since the volcanic eruption.
Over the past month the stratosphere over Antarctica has been approximately one to three degrees colder than usual.
,,,Since mid-2020 we’ve been in three La Nina events and now this third one is being enhanced by the positive SAM, bringing consistent wetter than normal weather.
The more I look at this scenario, the more opposites I see.
The real problem we face right now is that we are facing a wet end to spring and a wet summer on wet or flooded catchments."
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/how-a-tongan-volcanic-eruptio…
Doesn't this just exaggerate or highlight the effects of having more water vapor in the air?
Many of your posts detract from rather than enhance your viewpoints.
Water vapour in the atmosphere is dropping over time - until that volcano came along.
https://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20ESRL%20AtmospericRelativeHumi…
https://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20ESRL%20AtmospericSpecificHumi…
Ahhhh yes the noted denialist site climate4you run by the GEOLOGIST Ole Humlum (no doubt like most of these characters he receives a wee helping hand from the fossil fuel industry)
Here he is back in 2012 predicting that European temperatures would be a full 0.9C LOWER in the early 2020's
''Our forecast indicates an annual average temperature drop of 0.9 °C in the Northern Hemisphere during solar cycle 24''
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000417#FCA…
Considering Europe has endured recent summers of record breaking heat I am not entirely sure this source is to be trusted........a useful idiot for the fossil fuel industry or something worse?
Play that man! Given temps have dropped 0.84 degrees since 2016, and we are currently below the 30 year average he was more accurate than most!
He goes to the trouble of telling you how to down load the data yourself.
"Click here to download the raw data used to generate the above diagram. Use the following search parameters: Specific humidity, mb, 90N-90S, 0-357.5E, monthly values, area weighted grid."
Please tell the Journal and his University about your conflict of interest concerns.
https://images.remss.com/msu/graphics/TLT_v40/time_series/RSS_TS_channe…
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
and another undersea volcanic eruption yesterday in vanuatu
Tight labour markets everywhere. I thought AI was meant to be taking all our jobs by now! It’s hard to see how this can end well, I think they need a very big recession to create unemployment. Or just put up with 7% inflation as long as it doesn’t get worse.
Personally I like that the RBNZ now has employment in their mandate, it will stop them targeting 2% inflation at all costs. 4% is probably fine.
Funnily enough, technology is going to take out the white colar first, and minimum wage types jobs will be the last to go.
Do you think the RBNZ will prioritise inflation, or employment? I don't think they can pick both.
I reckon I could get 3D printing plans made by chat gpt, pipe those to a dropshipper etc. Might try it today and report back. After coffee.
Make it a house.
I heard an interesting story the other day about Zuru, working on clip together houses for this market, circa 18 months away.
Well they do make plastic toys in bulk...just scale up?
The problem companies struggle with is a basic perception that the core part of building a house is just putting walls up, when framing up walls only makes up a very small fraction of the time and cost of building a house.
Don't underestimate the ability of the civil servants to create more positions to make more civil service. All vital of course.
Northcote Parkinson explained that in the 1960s.”Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” And the same formula applies for personnel allocated.
What you are predicting has been an ongoing development in NZ for a long time. Decades' worth of technological advancements in manufacturing and global supply chains has allowed NZ businesses to offshore productive operations where things can be made cheaper and/or at scale.
As a result, we had low levels of tradables inflation in NZ for years running up to the pandemic. The RBNZ responded to these deflationary pressures with rate cuts that led to asset speculation in the absence of productive enterprises and pushed up non-tradables inflation.
Now we have overpriced housing, widespread asset speculation and a surplus of low-paying jobs across the economy.
We have dug ourselves one mighty large hole... and thrown away all the dirt
AI is here. A lot of people are going to have their worlds tipped upside down very soon.
Agreed. In my line of work, I've seen first-hand that clients can replace junior copywriters, web content writers and editors with ChatGPT (typically just not re-hiring after someone leaves the company). We are getting better output than most people in those positions will produce, for effectively zero cost. Even if you pay for the premium option at $50 per month or whatever, it's the bargain of a lifetime.
I also used to have a virtual assistant who would help me put together various data reports, Excel sheets etc. Not any more as I just tell ChatGPT what I want done with the raw data, it gives me a copy and paste response, and I get the same output in no more time than it took me to explain to the human what I wanted done (but once again for no cost).
and at the other end, somebody might be receiving your data report and just plugging it into some AI tool and asking, 'what does this mean?'
That’s not how it works because the AI didn’t get the data.
...well not yet....
I've seen first-hand that clients can replace junior copywriters, web content writers and editors with ChatGPT
If the source input is corrupt what happens next?
Have no fear. Be assured that the authors of these tools will self police and make sure that their tools can have awareness of such activity and will be following the 3 laws of robotics.
I might get ChatGPT to write my interst.co.nz comments from now on: "Attack the argument and the person making it with +10,000% millennial existential angst" would probably yield results that are not hugely different from what I actually serious post now.
Train it in the style of various commenters:
- Write a comment like Brock Landers - be a bit racist, talk up Australia, add the tick and airplane emoji (and get yourself banned by the looks of things)
- Write a comment like Audaxes - link to some dubious doomer blog with zero context
- Write a comment like Lathantide - defend Labour at all costs, claim you aren't being paid to do so
- Write a comment like dumbthoughts - the username makes it pretty obvious
Recall a Far Side cartoon. Two dogs on a lap top. One says to the other. “When you are on the web, no one knows you are a dog.” Believe all comers have their place here and by and large the moderator’s application is fair enough. What irks me though is the little covens that enrol together, or just as often the same identity with multiple monikers, that head nod, bleat the same message, and up tick one another.
In most cases you don’t need AI, just copy and paste.
yes and don't forget, in any way possible "revert the conversation back to the topic of house prices"
I can envisage the court case right now - I am sorry your Honour but the audit outcome was incorrect as my AI programme went rogue
Imagine a govt dept loading every doc into a chatGPT type programme and then being able to ask it to prepare or respond to whatever is asked. Job loss consequences are massive.
a govt dept loading every doc into a chatGPT type programme
I believe the bureaucratic channels between technical experts and Cabinet ministers are designed to be lengthy on purpose. Numerous internal and external reviewers, various levels of managers, comms "experts", ministerial advisors, etc. get involved to make sure the authors and decision makers remain at an arm's length from negative outcomes on the advice.
Megan Woods brushes off 'hurry along' from Environment Commissioner | Stuff.co.nz - It has taken the government at least 4 years and counting to build a strategy around energy infrastructure. Such red tape leads to major delays and billions in capex foregone in O&G, electricity generation and flows on to other parts of the economy.
Is anybody actually taking the time to read any articles written by ChatGPT? In broad terms I think the content it creates is satisfactory but the quality of the research and depth of insight when you dive into anything niche/specific is low quality and often filled with false truths. All the guys on YouTube will tell you it's about having quality "prompts"! but I fear the internet is about to become 10x awash with more mediocre inaccurate content than it was before.
Pretty much. The issue is that many businesses need a supply of 'so-so' content for everything from website pages to social media content to print collateral and so if the choice is between paying a human to write or getting it for free from an AI writer, only one option makes sense to the bottom line. The number of businesses and/or individuals actually willing and able to produce genuinely insightful content seems to be a small fraction of the overall output pool, if that makes sense?
Most of the YouTube/Insta/TikTok "gurus" are just pivoting to ChatGPT as the next hot thing to sell you their courses or 'prompt cheat sheets' or whatever. First it was all about building your own Facebook member group, then it was all about crypto, now ChatGPT is the hot $hit ... they won't ever stop hustling.
I have been thinking for a while that there will be an upward move in the 1-3% target rate of inflation.
The US Fed has in fact now raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.75%, as expected.
Start Of Bankruptcy Wave? Large Firm Filings Surge To 2010 Levels
The US has transitioned from more than a decade of quantitative easing to more recent quantitative tightening. QT will remain until the Federal Reserve is finished squashing inflation. However, such a massive paradigm shift in markets might result in a period of deleveraging among highly levered firms that were able to flourish during the QE era.
Insolvency of UK companies in 2022 was at the highest levels than at any point since the global financial crisis of 2008. Registered company insolvencies was 22109, 57% higher than 2021. Link
Interestingly USD policy rate is higher than the NZD. How can we even think of controlling inflation in our country in such a situation?
We are so dependent on global policy settings. And if we are running being them we are just doing catching up. Never going to get on top of it.
This is bad and going to be worse for it beautiful country.
This is just my opinion.. I am not an expert neither making money by trying to influence anyone.
USD has a slight pip premium over NZD out to 6 months on the forward market
Fannie Mae mortgages is advertising rates in the mid 5's. That's the difference. Far less margin... might have something to do with more domestic banking competition.
Just going with the flow and making excuses for why you can't enact meaningful reform is much easier than actually enacting meaningful reform.
Sure, we could drop the OCR again, but that would mean actually bringing in aggressive DTIs on a timeframe that doesn't involve a half a decade of letter writing to and fro to try and ward off the pooling effect of money into residential property. Too hard, so we just dream up reasons why we can't do it, or slow it to the point where reforms are stable-door stuff. By that stage, the horse has already been turned into hamburgers.
What's worse is people just swallow and accept it. The phrase 'Thank you sir, may I have another?' springs to mind.
Its as complex fixing this as problems at the bottom of the food chain. Most advanced countries understand that you need some form of regulation. Strong DTIs and lower rates would do the trick. Many prop investors would be locked into a very long hold to avoid cap loss (prob transferable to other productive enterprises) but would have lower rates.
Banks effectively are best at detterming customers true DTI type equations its just they are lending at multiples that make hosuing unaffordable to many.
I feel that the Adani fraudsters are going to be hugely negative for India - and someone in Australia might get a cheap coal mining operation
As usual the billionaires will make hay while the poor pay
Adani's collapse should be too much of a surprise. John Quiggan at University of Queensland has been writing about Adani and its dodgy dealings for years:
RBNZ now has all the reasons it needs to only go 25bps in Feb. I'm going to be truly shocked if they go 50 let alone 75.
I have a graphical representation of why they will probably get it wrong.
Our inflation rate is 7.2%, they are at 6.5%.
The price of gold will open today at US$1924/oz and dipping -US$3 from this time yesterday.
Update: Gold continues to rise as TIPS yields collapse - fear of US forever, unchecked deficit spending as Fed stance leads to possible inflation and rate repression preferences to manage the cost instead of a debt reduction policy.
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