Overseas worker arrivals now running ahead of pre-Covid levels

Business / news

More than 20,000 people arrived in New Zealand on work visas in March

13th Apr 23, 10:38am by Greg Ninness

Image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Vmzp85

The number of overseas workers coming to New Zealand set a new record in March and is now running ahead of where it was prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE), 20,442 people arrived in NZ on work visas in March this year, compared to 19,170 in March 2019, before Covid restrictions curtailed overseas travel.

The figures show that arrivals on work visas declined precipitously when Covid restrictions were introduced, dropping from 12,399 in March 2020 to just 237 in April 2020.

They remained at just a few hundred a month from April 2020 until March last year, and then began steadily rising again. They passed 10,000 a month for the first time post-Covid restrictions, in September last year.

However, March this year was the first time the number of arrivals on work visas exceeded pre-pandemic levels. It was also the most arrivals on work visas in the month of March since MBIE began collating the current data series in 2012. This suggests arrivals of overseas workers have recovered quickly and may be heading for a new peak.

The influx of overseas workers has also meant that the total number of people in NZ on work visas is rising again, after falling steadily from a peak of 222,036 in March 2020, to a recent low of 108,750 in September last year.

Since then it has risen back up to 139,578 at the end of March.

That decline in the total number of overseas workers was caused by a combination of workers returning to their home countries during the pandemic, with very few arriving to take their place over that period, and many obtaining residency visas under the special 2021 Residence Visa Scheme, which fast-tracked residency approvals for tens of thousands overseas workers who had already been in NZ for several years.

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87 Comments

by Avocado | 13th Apr 23, 10:49am 1681339794

Disinflationary

by Shaft | 13th Apr 23, 11:31am 1681342277

So these 20k have work or are looking for work?...

If so, what work and where!

by Adam B NZ | 13th Apr 23, 10:51am 1681339863

How many people are currently leaving though? I keep hearing all over the place about people packing up and moving overseas. Lots of Kiwi's heading to Australia and a few migrants heading back to their home countries. Surprisingly have heard about a few Indians heading back. Even our local dairy owner is getting ready to move on. All anecdotal of course but I do have a pretty large network.

by False economies | 13th Apr 23, 11:17am 1681341454

https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/migration

People leaving is increasing but not as fast as those coming in. At the moment...

by False economies | 13th Apr 23, 11:21am 1681341667

As we march towards 6 million... https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/population

Hands up who thinks that's a good idea.

How many new/extra public hospitals have been built since 2000 when the population was under 4 million?

by interesting1234 | 13th Apr 23, 12:50pm 1681347010

Just look at the masterton hospital. Was at capacity within a couple of years of being built due to population boom

by Advisor | 13th Apr 23, 3:06pm 1681355214

All thanks to idiots in the Parliament and policy shops who believe adding a few million consumers to our population will make our economy more desirable as a destination for overseas exporters, shipping companies, etc.

Farfetched as that scenario is, it does not even account for the drop in purchasing power in NZ as a result of wage reduction and clogged-up infrastructure from rapid population gains.

by powerupkiwi | 13th Apr 23, 6:10pm 1681366217

No wage reduction. Lump of labour fallacy.

by sparrow | 14th Apr 23, 10:55am 1681426543

I think the Covid experiment disproved that theory.

For the first time in decades workers were able to negotiate decent pay increases, especially in industries dominated by migrant workers.

by 21Trillion | 13th Apr 23, 3:42pm 1681357339

is it possible to see which are kiwis that are leaving vs non kiwis? Would love to know the stats of kiwis that are leaving NZ vs coming home and non kiwis.

by False economies | 13th Apr 23, 4:11pm 1681359098

The figure underneath the chart in the link above shows:

31,000 NZ citizens arrived

48,000 left

99,000 non NZ citizens arrived

50,000 non NZ left

In the year to Jan 2023

by False economies | 13th Apr 23, 5:08pm 1681362480

It's curious that we don't hear more complaints from Māori about the levels of migration...(or am I just in an echo chamber...chamber ...chamber ;) )

by nigelh | 14th Apr 23, 8:55am 1681419353

Its easier if you can say there are few job opportunities due to overseas workers taking local jobs and stay on the benefits.

by Frank Sobotka | 13th Apr 23, 6:46pm 1681368410

A number of those non-citizens arriving will be the spouses and family of citizens given we finally reopened the border. Frank knows many many people in that category

by powerupkiwi | 13th Apr 23, 6:09pm 1681366144

🤚👏👍

by Alec | 13th Apr 23, 12:38pm 1681346290

Good link.

Shows that for the last two years of data (Jan 2021 to Jan 2023) net migration was minus 115,178.

However with a worrying trend that the last three months has been positive , 12K, 24K, 33K.

by K.W. | 13th Apr 23, 2:54pm 1681354469

The immigration data isnt real - its based on a model with old assumptions. It takes 16 months before the numbers are adjusted to reflect what really happened rather than what they thought was happening. At the moment, they are assuming that the bulk of people leaving are merely heading off for a holiday, and it won't be until 16 months later that they will be reclassified as having left permanently.

Monthly passenger arrivals and departures show a sharp reversal in the last 2 weeks of March, where 26,500 more people left the country than arrived.

by False economies | 13th Apr 23, 4:14pm 1681359252

https://www.stats.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do/current-projects/migration-data-transformation-project/#faq

by Adam B NZ | 13th Apr 23, 12:42pm 1681346551

Thanks for sharing that link.

by interesting1234 | 13th Apr 23, 12:51pm 1681347061

We are losing workers abroad and domestically, and gaining retirees.

by False economies | 13th Apr 23, 1:13pm 1681348387

Is there any evdience for that? Not sure StatsNZ break figures down by age

We certainly aren't gaining enough doctors and nurses to cope with the increase in population

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Apr 23, 2:58pm 1681354695

Or the additional workload & cost as the boomers all age and require a greater proportion of the available medical care ...

by False economies | 13th Apr 23, 4:19pm 1681359575

Nzstats does break down by age, sex etc. Available here https://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/# under "tourism" -> International travel and migration

by nigelh | 14th Apr 23, 8:59am 1681419580

Not to worry about that. We'll have all those junior doctors on strike in the UK rushing off to apply for NZ residency which the govt announced in the last week would be given on application.

by singautim | 13th Apr 23, 2:16pm 1681352188

Last month my retired friend (English immigrant with PI wife) sold his house in Auckland and is now in Brisbane looking to buy.

by 21Trillion | 13th Apr 23, 3:40pm 1681357202

Keep hearing about those around me or mutual contacts that have sold up and left NZ too. Me and my partner are now seriously considering the same.

by Slapheid | 13th Apr 23, 11:01am 1681340489

My employer (manufacturing, ~250 staff) has just let all our full-time temps go, and accepted voluntary redundancy applications from shop floor and office staff. We are now 30+ individuals lighter, and I believe there will be more 'right-sizing' to come....

Where are all these overseas 'workers' destined for?

by Frank Sobotka | 13th Apr 23, 11:11am 1681341083

Replacing the kiwis leaving.

Lots of youngsters coming for a working holiday backpacking hospo adventure. Wait until they find the crippling housing and cost of living situation. Some will stay full term, some will go home.

some will win, some will lose

some were born to sing the blues

by K.W. | 13th Apr 23, 2:56pm 1681354613

Most will simply switch to an Australian working holiday visa. Particularly when the weather here starts to get cold.

by Yvil | 13th Apr 23, 11:12am 1681341149

Slapheid, what's a full-time temp?

by Slapheid | 13th Apr 23, 11:16am 1681341387

Full-time hours, but employed through an agency rather than directly by the company.

A strategy to deal with order-book peaks and troughs, that has worked well for us over the years.

by Yvil | 13th Apr 23, 11:39am 1681342772

Thanks, I get it!

by Beanie | 13th Apr 23, 11:13am 1681341201

Probably to your employer at minimum possible wage to replace those that have been let go. Or to your competition so that your employer can be undercut on price.

by kir10 | 13th Apr 23, 11:16am 1681341405

They will compete with kiwis over the jobs available and are cheaper in terms of wages for employers.

by Frank Sobotka | 13th Apr 23, 11:20am 1681341658

Not necessarily. Franks a champion of the working man and even he sees the labour shortages across the country.

by sparrow | 13th Apr 23, 11:36am 1681342611

The labour shortages are the result of an overheated economy, juiced up by all the free money that was sloshing around the last few years.

Correct that, and the labour shortages are solved.

Besides which it's generally accepted adding more people is both inflationary and increases demand in the economy.

by Nzdan | 13th Apr 23, 11:56am 1681343788

Fix one area of shortages by bringing in people, but then another segment of the economy those new people rely on is now short staffed.

Like trying to balance a seesaw, but each person that gets on jumps rather than carefully steps.

by powerupkiwi | 13th Apr 23, 6:12pm 1681366337

They will also consume goods and services, creating more jobs. Probably more than they take.

by AndyBBrown | 13th Apr 23, 8:44pm 1681375479

The foreign work visas are tied up with them getting a fair bit more than the min wage though. Isn't it like 28 an hour to be eligible for the visa? Most people on this site likely earn more than that, but on farms, manufacturing, machine ops, drivers .. don't really get that much.

by tomjones_04 | 13th Apr 23, 3:12pm 1681355573

Slapheid.. tell me to mind my own... can I ask who you work for? I think we are in the same industry

by Due Diligence | 13th Apr 23, 11:04am 1681340645

Good

by Slapheid | 13th Apr 23, 11:28am 1681342098

On what basis?

by Yvil | 13th Apr 23, 11:38am 1681342711

Probably on the basis that businesses can't currently find enough staff to operate properly. I know we need more staff.

by Jesse1 | 13th Apr 23, 12:36pm 1681346176

If our house prices and living costs were in line with incomes then businesses would have staff because they wouldn't have been leaving the country. But no, high and rising property prices are a good thing to get excited about...

by whakahokia mai | 13th Apr 23, 11:27am 1681342028

I must say I am feeling a bit more open minded these days about workers entering then country to help out after the the debates around this subject that have occurred since 2019. These people are here to help us recover from the disasters of the past few years. On our side of the coin we need to provide these people with suitable accommodation and infrastructure to allow them to perform to their ability. They beed us and we need them to dig ourselves out of the holes we are in at the moment.

by False economies | 13th Apr 23, 11:47am 1681343262

Isn't what you are describing though just going to be an upwards spiral of needing more and more people? I.e. more people come in which requres more infrastructure which requires more people which requires more infrastructure....

When is enough enough?

Maybe we need a bit of patience to let the current population and work opportunities/wages adjust to each other?

by rastus1 | 13th Apr 23, 12:11pm 1681344696

Bit the same. The problem was the seemingly lack of screening in days past. Numbers for number sake and no attempt to match skill shortages.

Are we doing any better? I suspect not. Many of our arrivals are form the most scamming bribery ridden and dishonest places on the planet - who knows what skills many actually have.

by Nzdan | 13th Apr 23, 12:31pm 1681345878

*gasp* b-b-b-b-but that's racist.

by rastus1 | 13th Apr 23, 1:32pm 1681349531

Interestingly I once dealt with a colleague from one of these countries over documents and evidence. He explained that where he came from one would turn up to court early to procure and brief the necessary witnesses from those available outside the Court. For fee of course.

Nothing racist about it. Culturally difference perhaps - and the need to scratch a living in these places, or starve.

by nigelh | 14th Apr 23, 9:05am 1681419917

No, cultural

by interesting1234 | 13th Apr 23, 12:53pm 1681347191

Many of our arrivals are form the most scamming bribery ridden and dishonest places on the planet - who knows what skills many actually have.

Look within our own government before you claim that

by rastus1 | 13th Apr 23, 1:47pm 1681350460

Verifying the background of many people with overseas docs is a major problem - this was the context and no claims was made about NZ govt.

It is not difficult to check our own institutions for verification etc. But verifying imported qualifications and backgrounds are a major problem.

We are better than most.

2021 Corruption Perceptions Index - Explore the… - Transparency.org

by singautim | 14th Apr 23, 4:15am 1681402524

I'm not so sure. I'm from the Uk, a first world country and the rule of 6 degrees of separation applies so to check my background would mean contacting previous employers, universities, police databases, income tax records, etc. My wife comes from a 3rd world country where all those kinds of records can be counterfeit more easily however for educated people it is a country with 2 degrees of separation - if you need to check a reference just ask a random educated person and they will either know your candidate for immigration or they will know someone who does. When we arrived in NZ 20 years ago, I was puzzled by the INZ immigration process: very slow and bureaucratic, virtually no interviews or background checks. They should double the cost of visas and do more checking in the country of origin.

by Frank Sobotka | 13th Apr 23, 6:50pm 1681368610

Franks wife is from such a place, and has many skills in demand in this country. Until you’ve met such people who are keen to make something of themselves best you keep your insinuations to yourself.

by rastus1 | 13th Apr 23, 12:11pm 1681344718

by Warwick D | 13th Apr 23, 11:52am 1681343529

May be wrong but I should imagine that the bulk of these are young travelers on temporary work visas who can undertake mostly unskilled work roles whenever it suits them as they move around NZ.

by K.W. | 13th Apr 23, 3:01pm 1681354871

At least half of them will be RSE workers coming in for the grape harvest.

by Camel's back | 13th Apr 23, 12:41pm 1681346492

Any Doctors/ Surgeon's or Nurses amongst them?. Did they bring a house with them?

by Property_Wizard | 13th Apr 23, 3:44pm 1681357482

Yep, my partner is a nurse from the states. First good thing Labour has done is extend the working holiday visas another 6 months while we wait for a more permanent visa.

by Von Metternich | 13th Apr 23, 1:45pm 1681350351

Got to suppress those wages, drive up that rental demand!

Bloating the labour force as an economic strategy really isn't working well for ordinary Kiwis.

by singautim | 13th Apr 23, 2:31pm 1681353083

It is great for business owners wanting customers, tertiary education establishments wanting students, the middle and upper class wanting barista coffee, property investors and landlords. It is not good for working class Kiwis.

by powerupkiwi | 13th Apr 23, 6:15pm 1681366535

Nah. Immigrants don’t suppress wages. There’s no evidence for that.

Economic growth is the best thing for “ordinary kiwis”.

by E46 | 13th Apr 23, 6:47pm 1681368439

The main problem would be with how that economic growth is distributed.

All the negative externalities put onto workers, all the positives reaped by the asset-owning class. Growth that isn't reinvested back into the community and infrastructure but instead concentrated into the hands of a few.

by powerupkiwi | 13th Apr 23, 7:57pm 1681372621

Over the last few years, it’s been the lower income workers making the most relative gains (in the US, at least, I’m not sure the same holds here, but I suspect it does). Anecdotally, if you look at the pay offered for low skilled work in NZ job ads, it’s hard to argue the majority (not to mention all) benefits are captured by the capital owning class. I could only dream of these conditions when I was searching for low skilled work post-GFC.

Even leftist economists recognise: the worst thing for inequality is low growth and high rates. R>G. Economic and population growth reduce inequality.

by E46 | 13th Apr 23, 11:08pm 1681384104

I think on the surface level you are correct, the minimum wage has been trending upward recently and it probably is working out well for low skilled workers at the moment.

It's probably those more on middle incomes that are getting more pressed and finding it harder to get by than they did in the past, the value proposition of New Zealand is getting worse for graduates and higher skilled proffessions which is where we are having shortages (Nurses, construction, etc). MBIE article on the the income share for workers, so the trend long term is more bleak but has gone slightly up more recently.

Our study covers the period 2002 to 2018, a period of moderately strong employment growth, apart from a GFC-related contraction in 2008-09 (Maré 2017). Although the longer term trend in the labour income share in New Zealand has been one of decline since the 1970s, the share has risen since 2002, from 49.5% to 53.8% in 2019. There was a pronounced fall in the labour income share in the late 1980s, at a time when New Zealand undertook widespread reform, including deregulation, privatisaion, and state sector reform (Bridgman & Greenaway-McGrevy 2018). It declined further in the 1990s, reflecting ongoing changes in the labour market and labour market insituions (Rosenberg 2017; Conway et al. 2015).

It is also argued in the article that increasing immigration has lowered our productivity as buisnesses don't find it as efficent to invest in productivity increasing technologies. This could also be a symptom of our wider economy focusing more on low-wage industries such as toursim and hospitally rather than investing in R&D and other high wage industries.

Paul Callaghan's talk on this from 2011 is really insightful as to why our productivity is much lower than countries we should be comparing ourselves to and what we could be doing to change this.

I think its also important to note the housing pressure immigration has put on workers. I'm all for immigration but it has to be done in a managed way and how it's been done in the past has put a lot of pressure on renters. We are seeing this in Australia as well. I can't see how bringing in more people without adequatly increasing housing supply can help in this regard.

by Von Metternich | 13th Apr 23, 7:39pm 1681371544

https://www.unz.com/article/cape-cod-proving-george-borjas-right-reduce…

https://www.unz.com/runz/raising-american-wages-by-raising-american-wag…

https://www.unz.com/article/national-data-unprecedented-real-wages-surg…

There is significant proof actually. It just won't be published by the big business funded thinktanks or neoliberal economists.

You can conclude it off sheer supply and demand, it is growing the supply of labour.

by powerupkiwi | 13th Apr 23, 7:49pm 1681372182

Maybe in alt-right sewer media (along with vaccine conspiracy theories etc.). I know Trump’s admin paraded bunk studies to this effect. Nobody credible believes it though.

by Von Metternich | 13th Apr 23, 9:09pm 1681376967

You can follow through to the links to the studies if you care to.

It is a fallacy to not read anything and simply say "official source didn't say that, therefore not true."

The same sort of brainlet ignorance is why trust in legacy and establishment media is sinking like a stone.

Can you even make the case that immigration doesn't suppress wages, is there a study that honestly argues that?

by Palmtree08 | 13th Apr 23, 10:57pm 1681383454

Nah. Crowding more and more people lowers quality of life for those already living here. Unless you are a developer or banker of course.

by Frank Economics | 13th Apr 23, 2:46pm 1681353979

What have we learned during COVID and before? If this group is mostly doctors and nurses and aged care workers then thats good, (despite the lack of infrastructure and the lack of any plans to fix this). If its low wage workers, how will they live, NZ maybe the most expensive country in the world.

by powerupkiwi | 13th Apr 23, 6:19pm 1681366760

What we learned was that central planning out of the MBIE office (the one with the expensive sign) was bad. We don’t need any more of that. Let the market decide.

And have you not seen all the vacancy signs in storefronts. This country is screaming out for labour.

by Palmtree08 | 13th Apr 23, 11:07pm 1681384064

My wife, who is fit, motivated and qualified just applied for about 20 jobs. Got 3 interviews, most of the rest didn't even bother saying the jobs been filled. Maybe the organisations were too busy interviewing the 10000s new arrivals?

by interesting1234 | 14th Apr 23, 12:54pm 1681433661

Welcome to the world of HR and recruitment. Where those in that area seemingly got their CV out of a cereal box

by singautim | 14th Apr 23, 4:25am 1681403143

Judging by members of my own family NZ is expensive and especially decent housing but if you come from a 3rd world country you really appreciate the free medical services and the free education of your children. If it wasn't for health, education and security then half my family would return to their place of origin.

This argument doesn't apply to the many immigrants from England, France, Japan, S Korea and other developed countries - they come to NZ because they like the low density living and decent climate.

by K.W. | 13th Apr 23, 2:49pm 1681354161

Amazing how Labour campaigned on reducing immigration and yet was responsible for record numbers of immigrants from 2017 to 2019. Its even more amazing that some posters on here still blame National for high immigration and think that voting Labour again will somehow reduce it.

Anyway, the numbers coming in are really immaterial if you can't show the equivalent graph of the numbers of people leaving NZ permanently. I'd have thought that it would be pretty simple to get a visa to head off to Australia or Canada now that workers have had a few year's experience in NZ, and other countries are also handing out visas like lollies. The 5000 nurses who have applied to work in Australia over the last 6 months are not going to be replaced by the 900 who have enquired about working in NZ.

by Palmtree08 | 13th Apr 23, 11:15pm 1681384542

Well Nats were responsible for massive immigration, but you are correct, the same lobby has been hammering a weak kneed labour party as well. You are also correct that labour will do nothing to stem the tide of humanity. There are no parties that will show any leadership on the population growth issue.

by nigelh | 14th Apr 23, 9:17am 1681420656

The only one who directly blathers on about high immigration is Winston. Unfortunately he forget to apply the handbrake when he had the opportunity.

by K.W. | 14th Apr 23, 12:18pm 1681431499

Labour probably withheld the immigration information from him, like they did everything else. It seems Winston and NZ First was not included in most of Labour's policy discussion, and they went behind his back as well as lying to his face. Which is why he has said he will not work with them again. Labour makes promises they never intend to keep, and its all just designed to get them voted in after which they will turn around and do the complete opposite. Like promising we would never have vaccine mandates and passports, then introducing them.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Apr 23, 2:54pm 1681354479

So we have people to pick our fruit & veggies? So food inflation is coming down?

by K.W. | 13th Apr 23, 3:03pm 1681355009

We will have the people to pick the grapes to make wine that we sell overseas.

by General Comment | 13th Apr 23, 4:20pm 1681359612

A huge amount of fruit and veges was already picked a couple of months ago by a lass named Gabrielle. Demand for RSE workers this season will be...mediocre.

by singautim | 14th Apr 23, 4:30am 1681403416

If you stay less than 12 months then govt stats treats you as a tourist but if you holiday for over 12 months then you are an immigrant. Best to check permanent residency visas and those are commonly given to people who are already here so asking at airports doesn't help. Presumably RSE veg pickers from PI islands are not immigrants but French tourists on long stay work visas are.

by Small Kev | 13th Apr 23, 5:34pm 1681364041

Farms, health care and many are here “with working holiday visa” without a job yet.

by Wrong John | 13th Apr 23, 6:29pm 1681367388

Touch & Go.

by Hamish | 14th Apr 23, 10:04am 1681423497

How do we the people set rules for the government so that for every '000s of immigrants they let in, they must bring in (or preferably have locally graduated) a required number of;

GPs,

Nurses,

Specialists,

Police,

Teachers

etc etc.

by interesting1234 | 14th Apr 23, 12:59pm 1681433981

The idea sounds good, but in practicality what would happen is they approve the _____ number of visas and then have to wait on someone in those professions to apply.

We've seen the above areas of work become less and less attractive due to how they were treated during COVID, the level of burnout, and the rise off work from home jobs which are often seen as more attractive to those who have to be at a building 5 days a week or on shift work, plus the money was good elsewhere.

The only way I see this improving is for society to once again hold these professions in high regard, higher than they are now, therefore children aspire to be them and will sway towards those directions in education. We can't simply import to fill the gaps, it's the same as relying on imported fuel. There are inherent risks.

by nktokyo | 15th Apr 23, 9:18am 1681507104

Had an argument with someone on Facebook the other week about this. I said he, who has sat on the housing market sidelines in Auckland for years, should get in and buy something city fringe before the new wave snapped up all the rentals and got residency. Buy in a relative slump. I was laughed out of the room because house prices are going down 70%.