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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; ASB raises some fixed rates, Barfoots at 15 year May low, retail still tough, new borrowers think short-term, swaps and NZD stable, & more
2nd Jun 23, 3:59pm
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Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB and Heartland Bank both raised some fixed rates for the eny terms today. More here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB also raised some short term TD rates. Rabobank did the same and raised its key savings rates, with its Premium Saver rate now up to 5.50%. MCF Finance raised most of its TD rates too.
ENTERING WINTER ON A LOW NOTE
Dominant Auckland reator Barfoot & Thompson reported its May sales volumes as their lowest in 15 years for that month, excluding 2020. They also reported selling prices sliding, down -$40,000 in May from April and down -$285,000 from the peak at the end of 2021. As we head into winter, it seems unlikely things will improve any time soon.
RETURNING TOURISM SHRINKS TRADE DEFICIT
The Q1-2023 trade deficit narrowed to -$3.2 bln, compared with -$3.9 bln in Q1-2022. This version of the trade deficit covers both goods and services. The main reason for the improvement is the return of tourism. Our terms of trade fell -1.5% which was the expected change.
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SAGS
Construction work completed in the March quarter rose +20% from the same quarter a year ago. This is largely due to commercial non-residential building projects. They were up almost +28% above year-ago levels. Residential construction completed was up only +17% in value on the same basis. If you strip out the price impacts, Stats NZ says residential activity rose +5% on a volume basis from the same quarter a year ago, and non-residential rose +17% on the same basis. Interestingly, residential completions fell in the March quarter from the December quarter after adjusting for seasonal effects.
HOME LOAN BORROWERS THINK SHORT TERM
Today the RBNZ released some new data, shedding some light of the fixed terms new mortgages are taken out for. Somewhat surprisingly (to me at least) about 20% of new mortgages are on floating rates. For owner-occupiers 28% are on a one year fixed term, 18% on an 18 month fixed term, and 24% on a two year fixed term. For residential investors 37% of them are on a one year fixed rate, 18% are on an 18 month fixed rate, and 19% are on a 2 year fixed rate. They don't much like longer fixed terms either.
MAY RETAIL VERY TOUGH
Worldline (Paymark) says consumer spending was up slightly in May, "but still made for a challenging trading environment for retailers, with the spending crunch especially evident amongst non-food merchants". Few sub-sectors are finding sales rising more than inflation and this is try of food retailers as well. Some are even seeing declines in nominal terms.
BANK DISCLOSURE UPDATES
Please note that we have updated our Key Bank Metrics tool with the latest RBNZ Dashboard data. That brings the data up-to-date to March 2023. This resource allows comparison back to March 2018, so it provides a quarterly view for the past five years now. This has allowed us to update our Bank Leverage page to March 2023 as well.
EXPENSIVE FUNDING
The BNZ perpetual preference share capital raising has been successful. It sought $250 mln for a 6 year initial term. It actually raised $375 mln. It will yield the 6 year swap rate plus 3%. This rate has now been set at 7.30%. There is no maturity or end date for these bonds. They are treated as capital for regulatory purposes and stand last in line with other equity holders. BNZ needs to raise this type of expensive capital to meet RBNZ requirements because its parent NAB doesn't want to breach APRA rules by having "too much" capital invested outside Australia. To put this $375 mln in perspective, BNZ had more than $11.3 bln in shareholder capital as at March 2023. It is mid-pack in terms of main bank leverage - only ANZ has lower leverage.
FE INVESTMENTS' RECEIVERS REPORT LENDER TO FMA & REGISTRAR OF COMPANIES
Calibre Partners' Neale Jackson and Brendon Gibson, receivers for FE Investments, say they have "submitted reports" to both the Financial Markets Authority and the Registrar of Companies. In their latest report the receivers also say liquidator Rhys Cain of EY continues his own separate investigations. Jackson and Gibson have provided funding to Cain "for a thorough investigation of the events leading up to the Company’s insolvency." The investigations are ongoing. FE Investments, a lender to SMEs, went into receivership in April 2020. At the date of receivership there were 1,234 individual deposits totalling $54.6 mln. Interest continues to accrue on this balance in accordance with each deposit certificate, the receivers say. Since their appointment the receivers have paid six interim distributions to depositors, totalling $13.78 mln.
BIG MINIMUM PAY RISE
In Australia, their official pay review body today raised pay rates for their lowest paid workers by +8.65% and workers under their Award system will get +5.75% effective July 1, 2023. It will apply to about a fifth of the Australian workforce. That probably means the RBA will raise rates again soon. Inflation was running at 6.8% in March.
BIDEN 1, McCARTHY 0
In the US, the Senate overwhelmingly ok'd the debt-ceiling compromise and obviously President Biden will sign it. It is actually a big win for Biden and his 2023 budget which seems to have escaped pretty much unscathed. He seems to have out-foxed his political rivals (and as they like to label him 'senile', what does that make them?)
SWAP RATES STILL UNCHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.68%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.64% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.72%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.37% and up +5 bps, and that is still way higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which slipped by -1 bp to 4.27%. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.62% and another -3 bps lower from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES VOLATILE
Wall Street closed with the S&P500 up +1.0% in its Thursday session. Tokyo has opened up +0.8%. Hong Kong is roaring back opening up +3.4% after the recent large drops. And if this opening enthusiasm holds, this will wipe out all the earlier weekly losses. Shanghai has opened up +0.7% and that may do the same for them. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade today heading for a weekly loss of -0.3%. The NZX50 is down -0.4% in late trade today and heading for a weekly gain of +0.3%.
GOLD FIRMER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1981/oz and up another +US$16 from this time yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$1977/oz and London closed at US$1974/oz.
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar has risen more than +½c from this time yesterday to 60.8 USc. Against the Aussie we have fallen to 92.1 AUc. And against the euro we are little-changed at 56.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 69.3 and little-changed.
BITCOIN VOLATILITY VANISHES
The bitcoin price is softer again today, now at US$26,963 and down a trivial -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.2%.
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29 Comments
Re: today's B+T housing data - May's median price for Auckland housing plunged 4% to $955,000. If you look back in the B+T dataset you can see that for nearly 4 years Auckland house prices were relatively static, bouncing around in in the $800,000's - I reckon around $840,000 was the mean between late 2016 and early 2020. This was before the RBNZ unleashed its insane cheap debt sugar rush when covid arrived. Well, it's only going to take a fall of just over another $100,000 to get back down to those levels (from today's $955,000) - and given just one month (May) erased 40% of that in one go it's probably entirely realistic for that to have happened by year end. Imagine, back to the same prices of the period August 2016-March 2020. Or perhaps more pointedly - prices won't have moved from those first registered in late 2016 in Auckland. Then throw in inflation and depreciation over that 7 year period.........
Which is kind of cool because one of the mantra's endlessly trotted out by the usual talking heads of the RE agencies and associated hangers-on is that 'oh we know prices have dropped by X amount, but that still leaves them Y amount above before covid came'. I wonder what garbage they will resort to once that particular 'marker' has vanished like a puff of smoke?
Always remember - if a $1,000,000 house goes up by 50% it's worth $1.5m. But a $1.5m house only needs to fall 33.3% to get back to $1m. It's always quicker on the way down..........
Good post. I think that by the end of 2024, reports will be showing prices have retreated to that of 2014. I think prices will bottom by the last quarter of 2024 and gently rise sustainably from there. When adjusting for inflation, they will still be falling in price for a few years afterwards. Great opportunity from early 2024 for low ball FHB's offers! In the rear vision mirror will this be seen as the great reset we had to have? From an educational perspective, I certainly hope so.
Yeah letz hope so, its impt for the next gen to climb on the lowest rung at a decent and fair price
In the meantime, invest some into commcl properties as their operating incomes are rising with inflation. Means bigger deposit from high yield, all tax free PIE income
#4times-single-income
Imagine, back to the same prices of the period August 2016-March 2020. Or perhaps more pointedly - prices won't have moved from those first registered in late 2016 in Auckland. Then throw in inflation and depreciation over that 7 year period........
Does that mean people can sue Granny Herald, etc about the 7-10 year theory? Does the FMA have anything to say about this?
House prices double roughly every 10 years, analysis from property data company Valocity confirms.
OneRoof property columnist Ashley Church commissioned Valocity, OneRoof’s data partner, to run the numbers going back to 1990 to see what the median house price was on the last day of each year.
The results were “astounding”, Church says.
While past performance isn't a guarantee of future performance, Church says it would be foolish to ignore the likely implications of these trends.
Throws in a disclaimer of sorts, but then puts it to bed in the very next breath. People can get sued overseas for inadequate blog disclaimers.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/double-your-money-new-zealands-surprisin…
Biden senile? Guess that’s old fashioned terminology for an old fashioned bloke. Be that as it may, another five years of presidency? Supposedly, just over 100 years ago, Woodrow Wilson was hardly on deck mentally during his second term, and the first lady ran the office so to speak. Difficult to pull that off today though.Dollars to donuts, if Biden is re-nominated, there will next be another Republican president.
Total spend through food and non-food retailers (excluding Hospitality) up a mere 1.0% on last year in Wellington, 3.0% in Auckland / Northland and 3.3% in Canterbury
Looks like high net migration into our population centres isn't helping push up domestic consumption and some reports suggest critical skills are a trickle among the tsunami of open work visa holders coming into NZ.
Things are about to get much worse I suppose.
Yeah that's not bad at all. Why would you bother with a residential IP at the moment from a cashflow perspective at least, when you can get 5.25% for comparatively stuff all risk.
I'm tempted by 5.1% at Kiwibank for a business 90 day call account (have a bit of spare cash floating as a goal was to put aside one year of revenue in cash of a rainy day) but every time I look at the screeds of paperwork I suddenly remember I have to wash the dishes or something.
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You guys regularly seem to have easily solved WordPress issues, I'm a WP core contributor with a small NZ based agency if you want a hand 😉 In all seriousness some basic filters to prevent this kind of thing is very little effort.
Josie Pagani outlines why New Zealand is poor.
".........Now think about most of the businesses you deal with everyday: Supermarkets, banks, phones, power, even parking companies. When was the last time you can remember one of them being put out of business by an innovative upstart? They're comfortable with barriers to new, more fleet challengers so they don't have to innovate as much to stay in the game........"
https://i.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300894424/josie-pagani-dont-waste-a-good-…
Strange comment, there's more food being traded now than at any point in history, and it's currently one of the highest inflating commodities.
I think the ability to produce food will only increase in importance throughout this century. It's probably something we want to be doubling down on.
You can't eat a Facebook.
Not your keys. Not your coins.
Apple’s new high-yield savings account service recently launched with a positive reception, especially over how easy it is to set up. A new report from the Wall Street Journal, however, says some customers claim getting money is out a different story.
Kevin Smyth of Minnesota tried transferring $10,000 from his Apple account to U.S. Bank on May 16. He needed the money to pay for remodeling his basement. Goldman told him to contact U.S. Bank, Smyth said. U.S. Bank told him it saw no sign of an incoming transaction, he said.
Smyth said Goldman eventually told him that his account was under a security review. Smyth tweeted at Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook on May 25. “Was your plan to partner with a bank that holds people’s life savings hostage?” he wrote.
Goldman later told Smyth he would have to transfer the $10,000 to American Express, which is where the money had been.
Smyth went a step further. He emptied his Apple account, moving all $200,000 back to Amex. The money showed up promptly.
https://9to5mac.com/2023/06/01/long-delays-with-cash-withdrawals-is-cau…
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