A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Westpac moves rates up, net worth falls but we are still saving, Auckland new house completions still high, swaps firm, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac has raised its fixed rates for terms 18 months to four years. That leaves its 1 year rate at 6.99% and pitches its two year rate at 6.79% matching ASB's recent hike. All other banks are lower than that for <80% LVR lending. Update: ANZ has raised all fixed rates to three years, and cut its four and five year fixed rates.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank tweaked a couple of rate offers up slightly. Unity Money did too but for a broader range of rates. Update: ANZ has raised all its term deposit offers for terms 1 year and longer.

NET WORTH DECLINES BUT SAVINGS STILL POSITIVE
New data from Stats NZ to March 2023 shows households lost more than $42 bln in wealth in the quarter and -$175 bln in the year, with their net worth falling to +$2.2 tln. This was a fifth consecutive quarterly retreat from the peak of more than $2.4 tln in December 2021. Falling housing values are the main reason for the falls. Meanwhile Stats NZ reported that households saved less, as their spending increased at a faster rate than their disposable income. But we are still saving and we have improved our overall savings impulse significantly since 2018. There hasn't been a year since June 2018 when net savings wasn't positive. In the year to Match 2023 it was +$5 bln. That compares to the year to March 2018 when it was a negative -$868 mln.

MANY MORE NEW HOUSES
New dwelling completions in Auckland are running at a record high level. Almost 1500 new homes were completed in the Queen City in that month, taking the annual total to more than 14.700. The slowdown signaled by the recent decline in residential building consents may not show up as a decline in the number of new homes being completed until 2024 or even 2025. For perspective, Auckland built just 7000 new houses in 2017. The official focus on more houses is clearly working and with momentum - and may be behind why median house prices will languish for longer than many assume.

GOING LONG
A new data series from the Reserve Bank shows the recent promotion of lower interest rates for three-year mortgage terms by some of the major banks has swayed significant numbers of customers to 'go longer' with their terms.

HUGE DEMAND FOR SYNDICATED NZGB ISSUE
The Treasury has today announced that an additional NZ$5.0 bln of the nominal 14 April 2033 New Zealand Government Bond has been issued via syndicated tap. The bonds, which carry a coupon of 3.50%, were issued at a spread of 4 basis points over the 15 May 2032 nominal bond, at a yield to maturity of 4.7575%. Total book size, at final price guidance, exceeded NZ$12.2 bln leaving a massive $7.2 bln unsatisfied. They say there will be no further issuance of this April 2033 bond prior to October 2023.

LANGFORD CONFIRMED
Federated Farmers have elected Wayne Langford, a 40-year-old dairy farmer from Golden Bay, as the organisation’s new national President. He was the acting-President. He replaces Andrew Hoggard who stepped down from the role to contest this year's election for the ACT Party.

NEW GUIDELINES TO BATTLE A STINKY PROBLEM
The Environmental Protection Authority has approved changes to the rules around how a neonicotinoid insecticide, Actara, can be used if the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) invades the country. MPI applied to increase the use of Actara from four applications per year up to a maximum of eight in a single area, only in response to a serious BMSB incursion. There are strict rules around its current use to control insect pests on kiwifruit, pipfruit, and potatoes.

GAME CHANGER?
And while we are talking about EPA approvals, they say they are now just weeks away from a decision on whether to approve the feed additive 3-NOP to reduce methane emissions in livestock.

FORMAL AML WARNING FOR AUCKLAND REAL ESTATE AGENCY
The Department of Internal Affairs (DIA), has issued a formal anti-money laundering warning to Hills Real Estate. The DIA says Hills failed to meet its obligations relating to the establishment, implementation, and maintenance of an Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act program. DIA says Hills failed to conduct ongoing customer due diligence, monitoring and reviews to identify grounds for reporting suspicious activity, as well as failure to keep records in accordance with requirements. Hills must "take immediate action to rectify all areas of non-compliance and will continue to be closely monitored."

TWO MEN SENTENCED FOR CORRUPTLY TRYING TO PROFIT FROM CHRISTCHURCH REBUILD
Former Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) and Ōtākaro Ltd employees Gerard Gallagher and Simon Nikoloff were sentenced at the Christchurch High Court after being found guilty on corrupt use of official information charges brought by the Serious Fraud Office. Gallagher was sentenced to 12 months home detention and 200 hours of community work. Nikoloff was sentenced to seven months home detention. The two had access to official information including how much landowners were willing to sell for, what investors were willing to pay and what was planned for the city. The SFO says they used this information to secure a sale and purchase agreement for their own company and then try and set up private business deals through which they would personally profit by hundreds of thousands of dollars.

SQUIRREL MONEY PROFIT RISES
Peer-to-peer lender Squirrel Money, part of the Squirrel Group, has posted a rise in March-year profit after tax to $880,305 from $209,542. Revenue topped $3 million, with expenses at $1.9 million and net finance costs of $37,209.

WORKFORCE GROWS FAST AGAIN
The expansion of the working age population has moved back into high gear in the June quarter, according to Stats NZ data. The June quarter growth was the most for that quarter since 2016. The full year rise was almost +90,000 and back to the upper end of the pre-pandemic range.

ANOTHER WHOPPER
Australia recorded another large trade surplus for both goods and services in May, +AU$10.4 bln and a level that is being normalised for them. Over the past 12 months that is now just under +AU$150 bln. That's equivalent to 5.9% of their AU$2.5 tln nominal GDP.

SWAPS RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably up today again but mostly at longer durations. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.68% and now +18 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +11 bps from this time yesterday at 4.11% after the RBA decision. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.70%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now up +6 bps at 4.78%, and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which also rose +5 bps to 4.72%. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.97% and up +12 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, SOME SHARPLY LOWER
Wall Street was back open after their public holiday and the S&P500 ended little-0changed down just -0.2%. The next key market-moving data is Saturday's non-farm payroll report. Tokyo has opened its Thursday trade down another -1.2%. Hong Kong is hurting, down an even sharper -2.2% in early trade, but Shanghai is down just -0.2%. The ASX200 is down -1.1% in early afternoon trade. But the NZX50 is up +0.1% in late trade.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is slightly lower at US$1919/oz and down -US$4 from yesterday. Earlier it closed in New York at US$1915/oz and earlier still at US$1925/oz in London.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, now at just under 61.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up very slightly at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 57 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 70.5 and still a two month high.

BITCOIN SLIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price has again slipped marginally today and is now at US$30,498 which is down another -1.2% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at just on +/- 1.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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