A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; rush of new homes available; tackling card surcharges, supermarket costs still up sharply, pockets of debt jump, swaps & NZD flat, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report again today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society raise some key rates with their 6 month offer rising to 5.90%, and their 12 month up to 6.10%. Sharesies Save call account has been raised from 4.60% to 5.00% for the month of August.

NEW RECORD HIGH
The number of new homes being completed in Auckland is now at a record high as recorded by Auckland Council's Code Compliance Certificates. 1742 CCCs were signed off in June. Given that there are about 620,000 rateable dwellings in the City, that is an increase of +2.5% over the past year alone.

'A COUPLE OF WINS'
Commerce Commission presses on its retail payments work as one telco and a ticketing firm agree to review surcharges.

INFLATION PRESSURE STILL FIERCE, JUST LESS SO
Infometrics monitoring of the Foodstuff database shows that their Grocery Supplier Cost Index rose at a +7.5% annual pace in July, the fifth month in a row that these cost increases have moderated. Despite this, monthly costs still rose at a pace consistent with an annual trend increase of 5-6% pa, which is around triple the pace of cost increases pre-pandemic. They noted: "A higher number of items increasing in cost reinforces the view that underlying pricing pressures persist, but are less intense than in 2022. Some global issues remain, with rice, cocoa, and sugar prices internationally having an effect on New Zealand costs. Higher input costs for suppliers also appear to still be working their way through the system, with higher packaging and energy prices being persistent. Transport and freight costs are also set to push higher."

SEVEN BRANCHES TO BE CLOSED
TSB said it is closing branches at Ōpunake, Eltham, Newmarket, NorthWest, Napier, Nelson and Palmerston North.

OPPORTUNISTIC CAMPAIGNING
The Health Coalition is calling out a "dangerous and cynical" campaign fronted by some dairies but funded and "proudly supported" by the tobacco giants BAT and Imperial Brands. It is being pitched as a "save our stores" campaign but the intent is to try and undermine the health commitments the tobacco industry has already made. (They probably think this is a good time to press given that Chris Bishop is ranked #3 for the National Party in Parliament and before entering Parliament he worked as a Corporate Affairs Manager for the tobacco company Philip Morris.)

FAST PULLBACK
The RBNZ C70 data release today for June shows that new commercial property lending fell a rather sharp -20.2% to $540 mln in June from in May. In June a year ago, this was $922 mln, so an even sharper -41% from from a year ago. Of that, new lending for investment property was down -30% while new lending for property development was down -70%. Bankers are no doubt asking themselves, why lend for property projects when the values are falling now? and rather fast. The new lending pullback is a reaction to market signals.

DAIRY FARMERS LOAD UP ON DEBT
Going the other way, this C70 data shows that dairy farmers are borrowing heavily again. In fact, they borrowed more than +$1.5 bln in June, the most in any month since this series began in April 2021. In June 2022, the new lending to dairy clients was $1.352 bln so a +12% rise from then. From June 2021 it is up from $1.021 bln or +48%. We are not seeing anything like this by sheep, beef, arable or horticulture farmers - in fact they are pulling back.

ELECTION POLICY UPDATES
Updated: Today we updated our policy comparison resource with the following additions: Act Party - Youth Justice. Youth justice will be lowered from 18 to 17; Act Party - Secondary Education. Introduction of the traffic light system; Green Party - Health Policy. Free dental care; Te Pāti Māori - Income Tax. Tax brackets are released; Te Pāti Māori - Tax. Tax details and implementation are explained; Te Pāti Māori - GST. Remove GST from all kai; National - Fisheries. Establish a Minister for Hunting and Fishing. Guarantee access to public land for fishing. Support Fish & Game New Zealand and protect trout and salmon fishing. Not introduce recreational licences for game animal hunting or sea fishing. We also added The Opportunities Party 2023 Election candidate List.

"DON'T BE NEGATIVE"
In China, seven well-regarded economists told the Financial Times that their employers had told them some topics were off-limits for public discussion. The China Securities and Regulatory Commission, the stock regulator, has accused brokerage analysts of playing up risks facing the economy, which is suffering from weak consumer demand, declining exports and an ailing property sector. Two think-tank scholars and two brokerage economists, all of whom serve as government advisers, said there was pressure to present economic news positively to increase public confidence.

A FAST TURN NEGATIVE
Meanwhile, 48 Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) were overdue on commercial paper in July, up from 29 in June, according to a report that referenced data from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange. Their missed payments amounted to ¥1.86 bln (NZ$423 mln), versus ¥780 mln in June. This will aggravate concerns about the financial health of LGFVs, which are mostly tasked with building infrastructure projects that may take years to generate investment returns.

SWAPS LOWER & FLATTER
Wholesale swap rates are probably slightly lower. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.64% and now +14 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged from this morning at 4.06%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.66%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps from this time yesterday at 4.81%, and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which was down -8 bps bps at 4.74%. The UST 10 year yield is at 4.06% and up a minor +2 bps from this morning.

EQUITIES WAITING FOR NEW YORK
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade today. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened unchanged in morning trade. At their open, Hong Kong is also unchanged, but Shanghai is down -0.5% at their open. The S&P500 futures suggests that Wall Street will open up +0.8% tomorrow.

GOLD STILL STABLE
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1943/oz and unchanged from where we opened this morning.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer at just on 61.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we also holding at 55.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 69.6 and also little-changed.

BITCOIN STILL ESSENTIALLY ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is very little changed from this morning, now at US$29,125 and up a mere +0.3%. Volatility has been very low at just over +/- 0.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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