A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; some retail rate increases, building consents stumble, newer cars sold, fewer listings, longer weather forecasts, swaps up, NZD stays firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
TSB has raised its home loan rates for terms 18 months and longer. The Op-operative Bank has also raise a few fixed rates. And Unity Money has raised its fixed 6 and 24 month mortgage rates.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Unity Money, and the Police Credit Union have both raised their TD offers.

THE PIPELINE IS DRYING UP
The number of new homes being consented is down -30% compared to a year ago. That is true for both stand-alone houses and townhouses. Consents for renovations are turning lower too now. And commercial building consents are weakening as well, their lowest monthly totals since January this year. After inflation, commercial consent levels are back to 2020 levels. It will take public sector work to prevent a full-scale downturn.

BETTER WEATHER PLANNING FOR FARMERS
NIWA has launched an AI-powered intermediate weather forecasting tool, bridging the gap between the 1-3 day forecasts and the long term climate modelling. Their newly launched tool provides week-to-week predictions of rainfall, dryness, and potential drought 35 days into the future. The outlook updates daily, capturing the latest changes in the climate system. It also offers long-term forecasts at a much higher spatial resolution than previously available. See this.

FEWER CAR SALES, VERY FEW ICE
There were 8150 new cars sold in September and 8921 used imports. From a year ago the new car sales were down -23% and the used ones up +21% (off an unusually low base - normal over the prior five years was about 11,600). The shift to electric cars and hybrids is happening fast. But to make a meaningful dent in our passenger car fleet before 2040, the adoption rate will need to pick up significantly from here.

LAUNCH FIZZER?
Realestate.co.nz had a softer than expected start to spring in September, with fewer listings and higher inventories. But with a bit of a burst on August sales, they are reporting little-change in the weeks of inventory available at 21 nationally, 23 in Auckland.

ELECTION POLICY RELEASES TODAY
The Labour Party released is LGBTQ+ policy today. ACT released its AML policy. And the Greens released policy for tertiary students to pay them $385/week as an allowance. These and all prior policy releases can be compared using this feature.

RISING
In Japan, sentiment among large businesses is improving, back to its best since March 2022.

FALLING
Despite that optimism, the Japanese PMI eased lower into contracting territory in September. And the Australain version did as well.

SWAPS FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are probably moving up again today. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.73% and now +23 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps from this morning to 4.53%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps to 5.41%, but still well above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.29% which was up +3 bps today. The UST 10 year yield continues its rise, up +5 bps today to 4.63%. The UST 2yr has risen +2 bps, now at 5.09%.

EQUITIES MIXED
Some key equity markets are closed today, but the NZX is not one of them. It is down -0.4% in later trade. The ASX200 is trading but is very thin because most of the east coast in on holiday. It is unchanged in early afternoon trade. Shanghai and Hong Kong are closed for holidays. But Tokyo is open and up +1.6% in early trade. The S&P500 futures are signaling that Wall Street will open tomorrow up +0.5%, so the bounce from the Congressional debt deal is insignificant.

GOLD SLIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1846/oz and down another -US$ from this morning's open.

NZD HOLDS, UP
The Kiwi dollar is still at 60 USc where we opened this morning. Against the Aussie we are at 93.2 AUc and against the euro we are still at 56.7 euro cents, both unchanged from this morning. That means the TWI-5 remains at 69.9+.

BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price is much firmer today, now at US$27,876 and up +2.7% from where we opened this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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