A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; Rabobank raises TD rates, Barfoots September nearly at long-run average, QSBO points to softer labour market, NPLs rise, swaps up, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report so far today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank raised their TD rates today, for all rates from 6 months to five years. That takes their six month rate to 6.05%, their nine month rate to 6.15%, and their one year rate to 6.30%.

HANGING IN THERE
Dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson said its sales dipped in September to 825 from the 2023 high in August of 879. September 2023 was their second highest level since March 2022 (1180). The long run average for a September (since 2005) is 878 monthly sales. Their average selling price dropped by almost -$30,000 in September from August (down -9.1% from a year ago) while the median price increased by +$4500 (down -7.2% on the same basis). One in seven of their listings drop out and never sell, a fairly normal level.

GETTING BETTER
The latest survey of business opinion from NZIER shows fewer firms are feeling negative as confidence improves slowly. Firms are reporting that it is much easier to hire the right people. BNZ economists noted that "The clear message in today’s NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is that the labour market continues to soften and aggressively so."

LOAN STRESS ARRIVES FOR SOME COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Non-performing bank loans hit the $3 bln mark for first time in nearly three years in August. The latest RBNZ figures show while overall non-performing loans climbed in that month, household mortgage stress didn't get any worse. It was the big jump in commercial property non-performing bank loans that is moving the needle.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT GDT AUCTION
There is another full dairy auction tomorrow morning and it is hard to know what it will reveal. The core WMP price has tended to be higher in the full auction events than the specialist WMP Pulse events recently (in a view of the prior six events). Looking through this volatility, WMP has been rising since its August lows. Although its won't change the market much, another small rise will be better than otherwise, given WMP prices are currently -25% lower than year-ago levels.

LGFA BONDS YIELD 6%+
There was an LGFA tender today, with four maturities on offer totalling $150 mln. The April 2027 $40 mln was settled with a yield of 5.83% pa. The April 2028 went for 5.85%. The May 2031 for 6.07%, and the April 2033 for 6.16%.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS
NIWA says we have just had the warmest September on record. Temperatures were above or well above average in every region (nationwide we were +1.3°C above the average). The 29.6°C in Wairoa in the North Island was the highest anywhere for a September.

UP RECENTLY BUT STILL MUCH LOWER THAN A YEAR AGO
In Australia, new housing loans rose marginally in August from July, but remained a steep -12.3% lower than the same lending a year ago. Meanwhile, Australian building consent approvals for housing also rose in August from July, but these too remain lower than last year and by -9.4%.

RBA ABOUT TO REVEAL
The Reserve Bank of Australia board is meeting, its first with Michelle Bullock as Governor. We will cover the results of their delivebations when they are announced at 4:30 pm NZT.

SWAPS FIRMER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably moving up again today, and as sharply as they did yesterday. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.72% and now +22 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from this time yesterday to 4.58%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps to 5.44%, and now equal to the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.44% which was up an unusual +15 bps today (the most since the November 22, 2022 jump following the RBNZ FSR and strong NZ labour market data then). The UST 10 year yield continues its rise, up +6 bps today to 4.69%. The UST 2yr has risen +3 bps, now at 5.12%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, SOME MARKETS SHARPLY SO
The NZX50 is down -0.6% near the end of trade today. The ASX200 is down -1.2% in early afternoon trade, and that is enough of a fall to wipe out all of their 2023 gains. Tokyo is down -1.4% in Tuesday morning trade. Hong Kong is back from holiday and is down -2.8% in early trade. Shanghai is closed this week. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 essentially unchanged after a late rally.

GOLD FALLS AWAY FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1823/oz and down another -US$23 from this time yesterday. Earlier it closed in New York at US$1828/oz, and earlier still it closed in London at US$1833/oz.

NZD SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar is -¾c lower against the greenback, now at 59.3 USc as the USD rises strongly again. Against the Aussie we are up at 93.4 AUc and against the euro we are little-changed at 56.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now down -20 bps at 69.7.

BITCOIN SLIPS BACK
The bitcoin price is a bit softer today, now at US$27,472 and down -1.4% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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