A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; numerous retail rate changes & some interesting, household net worth falls, service sector expands, tractor sales low, swaps on hold, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank raised their fixed home loan rates as well as their floating rate. Details here. The Co-operative Bank actually cut their 6 month and 1 year fixed rate by -4 bps, raised their 3-5 year fixed rates by +16 bps.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ joined ASB raising its 6 and 9 month TS rates to 6%, and their 12 month rate to 6.10%. Heretaunga Building Society, also raised rates but not above those main banks. Heartland Bank launched a 5% Digital Call account. More here.

HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS TAKE A BIG HIT, AGAIN
Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth fell by a further $33.5 billion in the June quarter, with over half of this due to falls in property values - but our rate of savings increased. Household net worth has dropped by over $250 bln in the past year and a half.

A SPRING IN THE STEP?
BNZ says: "Having been on a slippery slope over recent months, into the red, the service sector PSI managed to right its way back into positive territory in September – albeit only just. The seasonally adjusted reading of 50.7 was clearly better than August’s 19-month low of 47.7. However, it was also clearly south of its long-term average of 53.5. Stabilised but hardly buoyant." But it was the rise in new orders that gave the boost.

A BIG STEP LOWER
September is normally the top month for tractor sales - but it won't be this year. 259 tractors were sold in the month, marginally lower than the 264 sold in August. The September result is -24% lower than in September last year, and -29% lower than the ten year average.

PROFIT UPGRADE
Listed local insurer Tower is feeling relieved. It says premium income is up +17% on both organic growth and "strong customer retention". Premium increases are sticking. It also says its assumptions about claims have been to conservative; they are getting lower-than-expected costs from Vanuatu cyclone claims, favourable foreign exchange rates, and have experienced no large events since May 9. That means they can raise their profit guidance, and away from the prior indication a loss was possible.

UPCOMING
The two big economic data releases over the new few days are: Q3-2023 CPI, dies tomorrow (expect 5.9%), and on Wednesday, another dairy auction. After Fonterra's recent payout forecast upgrade, WMP could shift above US$3000/tonne again for the first time since July. SMP prices might bounce back to June levels. All cheap guesses at this stage however, but based on recent trends in GDP Pulse and auction trajectories.

MORE FUNDING
The Chinese central bank injected ¥783 bln (NZ$183 bln) into their banking system today (Monday) via their medium-term lending facility, but at an unchanged 2.50% rate. This remains the lowest rate on record for a 1-yr MLF. It has fallen steadily from 3.30% in 2019. Today's injection is a third more than the September ¥591 bln.

SWAPS ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably not changed much today. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.71% and now +21 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is back up +3 bps from this morning to 4.47%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp to 2.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps to 5.45% from this morning's open, but still above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.39% which was down -2 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is back up +4 bps from this morning at 4.66% but that is still lower than Friday's close.

EQUITIES START WEAKER
The NZX50 is off to a weak start after the election, down -0.8% in late trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its week weak, down -1.7%. Hong Kong has opened down -0.1%, and Shanghai has opened down -0.2% at their respective opens. The S&P500 futures suggest that Wall Street will open tomorrow +0.4% higher.

GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1922/oz and down -US$11 from today's open.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar has risen slightly today, up +¼c to be now at 59.1 USc. Certainly no big 'change of government' bounce. Against the Aussie we have also firmed slightly to 93.6 AUc and against the euro we are firmish at 56.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is little-changed at just under 69.7.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is a bit firmer today, now at US$27,223 and up +1.1% from where we opened this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however at just under +/- 0.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».