Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union raised fixed rates.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised its nine and twelve month rates today, with the 1 year rate now 6.25%, a high among main banks. More here.
A WELCOME RECENT LIFT
ANZ reports that its World Commodity Price Index gained +2.9% in October from September after also lifting +1.4% the previous month. These followed three months of declines. Strong increases were recorded for dairy and horticulture, which helped to offset weaker prices for lamb and logs. In local currency terms, the index rose +.1% on the same basis but that left it -8.6% lower than a year ago
PERHAPS TOMORROW
Today was the fourth business day after the end of last month and we usually have the Barfoots Auckland sales results released by now (often in 2 working days). But they were a no-show today. Perhaps tomorrow.
MORTGAGE LENDING UP +3%, BUSINESS LENDING UP +2%, DEPOSITS UP +2%
Westpac New Zealand said its annual profit fell in the year to September 2023, as expenses and loan impairments rise. Their net interest margin increases however.They say the number of mortgage holders behind on repayments is down over the past 6 months.
TSB STAYS WITH MARKETING BACKGROUND FOR ITS NEW CEO
TSB has announced today that Kerry Boielle has been appointed as their new Chief Executive. She will start in January 2024. She is is currently with Southern Cross Health Society holding concurrent roles as Director, CareHQ and Chief Sales, Marketing & Customer Experience Officer. Prior to that she had 17 years banking experience in senior roles with both ASB Bank and Kiwibank. More here.
NO TO FLOATING RATES
New data out from the RBNZ shows that new home loan borrowers are shying away from floating rate loans with only 17% of all new lending having some of that. This is the lowest level since the series on new lending started in April 2021. Floating rate lending includes revolving credit. Investors are keener on floating rates than owner occupiers. More here.
MORE AUSSIE COMPANY BANKRUPTCIES
In Australia, ASIC data for October shows company bankruptcies were -16% lower in October 2023 than the same month a year ago. But this is a rare bit of good news on this front because year on year these bankruptcies are running +38% higher.
SWAPS BASICALLY HOLD LOWER
Wholesale swap rates have probably changed little today. The real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.63% and now +13 bps above the OCR. Financial markets no longer price in any chance of an RBNZ rate rise over the next three years. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from this morning at 4.71%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down another -4 bps at 5.31% from Saturday, but still well above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.24% which was down another -14 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is still at the 4.58% it opened at this morning. The UST 2yr is now at 4.86%, so the curve inversion has deepened to -28 bps.
EQUITIES UP
The NZX50 is virtually unchanged today after last week's unusual gain. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +2.3% in another roaring start to the week. Hong Kong is starting its Monday up +1.4%, and Shanghai is up +0.6% at its open. Singapore is up +0.5% at their open. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open +0.4% higher following on from last week's impressive rise.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1991/oz and down -US$1 from where opened this morning.
NZD STAYS UP, LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar has stayed at 59.9 USc from the 60 USc we opened at this morning. But against the Aussie we are softer at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 69.4.
BITCOIN EASES UP
The bitcoin price is rising today, now at US$35,086 and up a minor +0.3% from where we opened this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.
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