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China's reserves rise, but momentum leaks from car and property markets; Singapore retail recovers; US labour market expands again; German inflation stays high; UST 10yr 4.05%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 62.4 USc; TWI-5 = 70.8

Economy / news
China's reserves rise, but momentum leaks from car and property markets; Singapore retail recovers; US labour market expands again; German inflation stays high; UST 10yr 4.05%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 62.4 USc; TWI-5 = 70.8
[updated]
Holiday briefing

Here's our summary of key economic events over the holiday weekend that affect New Zealand, with another quick news wrap-up so you can get back to 'time-off'.

In the week ahead, we will be on the lookout for the Barfoot December sales result. It may come later this morning (?) if last year's schedule is any indication. (Update: It probably now won't be till Wednesday that this data is released.)

In the United States this week, the main focus will be on December inflation rates, followed by exports, producer prices, and speeches by Fed officials. Also, Switzerland, Mexico, Brazil, Australia and India will unveil their CPI figures.

It will be a busy week in China who will release consumer and producer inflation updates, export data, and new yuan lending data. Germany will release factory orders, industrial production, and exports data too. And a range of countries will update their jobless rates for December, including the Euro Area, Italy, Turkey, South Korea, and the Philippines.

In China, they released their December foreign exchange reserve data over the weekend and it showed a big jump, rising +US$66 bln to US$3.24 tln. This was more than expected, and is now at its highest level since December 2021 and the second highest since December 2015. Much of this change however was because of exchange rate changes rather than inflows. The yuan rose +0.5% against the US dollar, while the dollar fell by -2% against a basket of other major currencies. At the same time, China's gold reserves increased by +US$2.5 bln to just over $148 bln.

On Friday, a Beijing court placed Zhongzhi Enterprise Group (ZEG) into bankruptcy. It has been a major player in their US$3 tln shadow banking sector and has lent billions to real estate firms. Zhongzhi has US$64 bln in debt and now far more than its fast-depreciating property loan base. It will not end well for its managers (some of whom have skipped town).

And they may be joined by some carmakers in 2024. Bloomberg is reporting that only four of the 13 brands that have disclosed annual sales figures accomplished their 2023 targets, with many missing by wide margins. A consolidation is due, but for those that aren't picked up, it could be a messy end. Overall momentum loss is affecting one of China's big three economic regions.

In Japan, consumer sentiment rose in December and to its best level in two years.

Singapore retail sales made some sort of recovery in November after falling in October. They are now +2.5% higher than in November 2022.

In the US their giant labour market has impressed with more job gains than expected. The headline expansion was +216,000 when a gain of about +170,000 was anticipated. This is the employer payroll data. They also survey households and that reported a fall, something unusual in the November to December period. For the full year, payrolls rose +2.7 mln, whereas the household survey reported a gain in employment of +1.9 mln for the year. It seems workers are shifting out of self-employment on to employer payrolls.

Average weekly earnings rose +3.8% for the year in this survey, enough to best inflation but not by much. But the pace slowed in December from November, so this is one to watch.

Meanwhile, the ISM services PMI delivered only a minor expansion in December, although new order growth was good. Prices rose slower, a +0.9-percentage point decrease from the November. But that wasn't as fast a decline as the ISM factory survey showed, a -4.7 percentage point decrease.

But overall American factory order growth recorded its best rise in three years, a +2.6% expansion pace in November from October, and +3.3% year-on-year.

This weekend data probably pushes back when the US Fed will feel a need to start trimming rates. The current sanguine situation may well have them keep current levels for some time. But this is not the scenario that bond markets have assumed.

Canada disappointed in its labour market change in December, with virtually no change from November when a +13,500 rise was expected and after a +24,500 rise in November. Worse, full-time employment fell -24,000 jobs and part-time employment rose +24,000 jobs. They will be quite disappointed in that.

European inflation seems sticky above levels they want to see, according to the December data. While lower energy costs are certainly helping, food costs are not. Their +6.9% pa rise in food costs and -11.9% fall in energy costs balanced out to a +2.9% rise in overall inflation in December, up from +2.4% in November. In Germany, inflation is running at 3.7%.

A sharper than expected pullback in November German retail sales won't hep either as those price pressure mount.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.05% and up another +2 bps from this time Saturday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still inverted by -34 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is also still inverted, now by -84 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is also little-changed, now by -134 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.17% and +2 bps higher. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.57% and holding its low Saturday level. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 4.65%.

The price of gold will start today up +US$4/oz at just on US$2045/oz.

Oil prices are +50 USc higher at just under US$74/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is still just over US$78.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 62.4 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are holding higher at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 57.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.8 and little-changed from where we left it Saturday.

The bitcoin price starts today higher, rising to US$43,939 and a gain of +1.2% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.8%.

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99 Comments

This weekend data probably pushes back when the US Fed will feel a need to start trimming rates. The current sanguine situation may well have them keep current levels for some time. But this is not the scenario that bond markets have assumed.

US Treasury Bond market yield curves reflect the anaemic upward trajectory of US bank asset growth.

What The Yield Curve is Predicting Right Now

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ISM Services PMI decreased to 50.6 in December (reading below 50 indicates contraction) It was a 3-standard deviation DOWNSIDE surprise, according to Bloomberg. Critical to watch the services sector as it accounts for +75% of the U.S economy. Link

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered these remarks at the annual meetings of the International Banking, Economics and Finance Association and the American Economic Association. Link

Much of the easing in long-term yields since October came in response to softer economic data or policy communications.

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Comparing Feudal to Financial

And one of the reasons that economies turn down is because the debt overhead grows so much that it deflates. I talk about debt deflation, not debt inflation. And the term I use again and again is debt deflation. And that is that paying creditors, paying debts to the financial sector removes purchasing power from the consumer spending and from corporate spending on industrial capital formation. So we have debt deflation, there’s credit asset price inflation, very often debt finance, but asset price inflation is achieved at the cost of debt deflation.

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but asset price inflation is achieved at the cost of debt deflation.

Another key reason why the notion of never-ending increases in asset prices is not sustainable, realistic, or a positive goal to work towards. Simply because real interest rates were dropping and debt becoming cheaper across the last 30years causing asset price inflation doesn't indicate that this will be able to be replicated, or replicated at the expense of more important core parts of a modern society. 

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This weekend data probably pushes back when the US Fed will feel a need to start trimming rates.

Commentators are increasingly recognising that the *net* impact of higher rates in the US could be stimulatory as interest payments pile into the economy - Govt is the big loser due to high debt to GDP, high interest rates, and floating rate interest payments on huge levels of reserves. This view was heretical a year or so ago, but more people are doing the math now.

Obviously this ain't the case in NZ for two main reasons...

1. Despite Govt paying the Aussie banks $8m per day interest on reserve balances, and about $10m per day to bond holders, the NZ govt has a *positive* net financial worth and collects about the same in interest payments and dividends as it pays out.

2. Mortgagors and businesses in NZ are very exposed to interest rates due to high levels of floating / short-term fixed rate debt. Although it is worth noting that households in *aggregate* are overall beneficiaries of higher interest rates. Rich people get free money to protect the value of their savings, while people in debt lose a load of disposable income.  

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US Foreign Policy Is a Scam Built on Corruption

As a result, the American people are losing big. The failed wars since 2000 have cost them around $5 trillion in direct outlays, or around $40,000 per household. Another $2 trillion or so will be spent in the coming decades on veterans’ care. Beyond the costs directly incurred by Americans, we should also recognize the horrendously high costs suffered abroad, in millions of lives lost and trillions of dollars of destruction to property and nature in the war zones.

The costs continue to mount. US Military-linked outlays in 2024 will come to around $1.5 trillion, or roughly $12,000 per household, if we add the direct Pentagon spending, the budgets of the CIA and other intelligence agencies, the budget of the Veteran’s Administration, the Department of Energy nuclear weapons program, the State Department’s military-linked “foreign aid” (such as to Israel), and other security-related budget lines. Hundreds of billions of dollars are money down the drain, squandered in useless wars, overseas military bases, and a wholly unnecessary arms build-up that brings the world closer to WWIII.

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This is an interesting one. US foreign policy has historically been about protecting US commercial interests to a high degree. A fall out has been that the US has been seen as internationally a projector and protector of 'freedom'. But then corruption takes hold and they suck up to dictators and other autocrats who will pay big money for their support, commercially and politically. so not so much 'freedom' unless 'freedom' has the '$' sign somewhere near it. And that corruption has also suborned politicians at home, leading to ill advised and outright stupid involvement in wars. (and they twiddle their thumbs when there is a legitimate need, but not so much money?)

But the real truth is the US could do a lot more to project actual freedom and democracy if it chose. Peace and stability I have come to realise, is highly dependent on militarily strong players who are prepared to step up to defend it. We are highly dependent on the US today for peace and stability in the pacific. Helen Clark's attitude to cut the strike wing was ideologically shortsighted, as today we need a strong defense capability perhaps more than in the last 50 years, but the cost of gaining it must be close to impossible for where the politicians have driven the country.

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Expect NZ’s increasing alignment with tradition allies in the West reflects the depletion of our defence capability. Satellite surveillance would detect early any sizeable armada with Australia to the west & USA to the north positioned sufficiently well to intervene. The forthcoming installation of a nuclear submarine base in Australia demonstrates the strategy of such deterrence reasonably well.

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Interesting. What would Australia have to pay to be able to counter the Chinese sub threat?

I suspect a part of the problem is that the US would for the most part be reluctant to export their sub and sub weapons tech. Aussie is probably as safe a bet as anyone though. But just three subs? That a lot of resources in just a few assets. Limited use in the SCS too as those waters are fairly shallow in most places, so that limits their deployment.

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Don’t really matter how they got there and what they are and it’s not just about guarding local waters and approaches. The major point being, like any nuke powered deep water sub they are whereabouts unknown and capable of devastating retaliation to the home field of any attacker. Add to that over 100 subs, and still building, of the same strike capability shared between recognised allies of the West and you arrive at a massive example of the strategy of deterrence. Japan’s continuing military restructuring and rearming could very well indicate likelihood of a similar deployment in their navy in the near future.

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Looking at the Ukraine Murray it seems the expensive (tanks, fast air) has been overtaken by the numerous and cheap.  Missiles and drones, $500 up.  Masses of them.  Both sides.

"The West" seems unable to adapt, military industrial complex as in Audax's link.  But others, Iran, China, Russia can.

It seems to me an aircraft carrier is a coffin ship in the modern era.  A $50K missile out of nowhere and 4000 Americans are toast.  

So if we wanted to get into it - which option?  A conventional horrendously expensive heavy duty setup.  Or a home industry, adaptable, low cost, which makes any enemy wary of coming within 5000km of us.

Both are expensive, and of course too easy to plan for the last war, not the next one.

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Not so fast.. When was the last aircraft carrier sunk. These ships do not travel in insolation.. They are surrounded by an armada of support ships. 

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When though, was the last time an aircraft carrier was seriously attacked. HMS Hermes & HMS Invincible survived the Falklands campaign but other vessels were sunk by the somewhat primitive exorcets including a container ship converted to a temporary aircraft carrier. New technology and new weaponry, satellite/gps guided and hypersonic, these days are a lot more sophisticated, undetectable  and destructive than exorcets. In WW2 the aircraft carrier obsoleted the battleships and now subs are doing ditto to them a strategy that was recognised and implemented way back  in Eisenhower’s presidency when he transferred the responsibility of deterrence from General Le May’s treasured  Strategic Air Command to the nuclear subs.

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To a degree I agree. The US has a tendency of being somewhat hide bound around their version of 'conventional wisdom' with regards to military tech and strategies.

I recall a story from a while back (possibly audaxes raised it?) where a US Army Colonel got trashed when as the OC the OpFor of an exercise of US against a third world nation (low tech) he led his forces in a manner where they ran rings around the conventional US forces. I was somewhat amused when they denied him access to high(ish) tech weapons and then accused him of cheating when he embarrassed everyone else. There is a fighter pilot adage that states "if you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'!"

The modern world has demonstrated a need for militaries to be able to adapt to counter 'asymmetric warfare' tactics, and flashy, expensive weapons are proven to not cut it. But all this misses the point.

The wars in Viet Nam, and Iraq where fundamentally stupid political follies. But if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, Europe will burn, and possibly the rest of the world. The US and European nations have already made it harder to stop him than it should have been,  due to their vacillation.

 

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Far out Muzza. If you have an actual degree I would agree to agree.

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US so called 'freedom' was valid when the country was being settled and resources being stripped and utilised to improve living standards. Capitalism results in, much like the food chain, big fish eating smaller fish and growing ever larger until they are the dominant predator amongst all others. It was only a matter of time before corporate structures and organisations became to wealthy they gained political influence en masse and this influence was the true downfall of america, not the wars. The loss of true democracy when those representing the people are not acting in the best interests of the people, and down the slide they have been going since. The big question is, how much longer will the world tolerate the collateral damage of the USA (e.g sub prime mortgage GFC) before enough is enough and demand something other than US hegemony.

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Agreed - the real culprit is the capitalism ideology that modern America encapsulates. Greed and lust for power underly that and little good comes from it.

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USA: Where the lifestyle of the 1% is dangled in front of all as a goal to work towards, while they using their influence and finances to ensure the masses never do.

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Some unfortunate truth in that. From  when I lived and worked there I came across many “blokes” I reckon would want nothing else other than to be just like Donald Trump and to my mind that type of mindset,  provides a good percentage of his support. Of course Trump wasn’t the front runner in that admiration club, Hugh Hefner would have been way out in front.

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Beats me why anyone would want to have Trump's life - he always seems to be thoroughly miserable. 

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Well said 

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Anyone with high debt will continue to be hit hard for the next couple of years..

People piled on debt,  as promises of low interest rates would remain forever.. reality is hitting home for many.. 

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Never believe the promises! They could however have got those low interest rates for 5 years had they been sensible. The RBNZ should look to mandate long fixed terms for those with high debt to income ratios. 

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The better option is the RBNZ mandate no recourse mortgage loans, as USA. Th banks will be much more cautious if their own skin is in the game & longer term that will depress property prices.

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Worth considering, however the banks weren't that cautious in the US!

The RBNZ is responsible for banking stability, I doubt no recourse mortgage loans would make the banking system more stable. 

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And how much would they increase interest rates to compensate for the higher risk?

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Ideally they only increase rates for those at risk. House prices would have to go down a hell of a lot for the bank to have any risk with our household for example. 

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A better mandate would be that the applicant's test rate be shown on the loan document, and be the maximum interest rate the borrower can be charged for the duration of the entire loan.  Banks might take the setting of test rates a little more seriously if the bottom line is at risk, rather than chasing retail rates down.  

Commentators such as Refactornz claim interest rates would rise to compensate, but subsequent borrowed amounts would be lower due to servicing constraints.  House prices would in theory be lower etc.  

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Yes that is a good idea. Duration of the loan is a bit too long, maybe for 5 years. After 5 years most people have had reasonable pay rises and can afford more interest if necessary. 

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That's the point of fixing your mortgage though right?  Anyone can fix for 5 years today.  

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Hopefully the DTI's will partially resolve this? 

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Depends how strict the DTIs are.  I suspect many of those that bought 2 years ago would not have been stopped by DTIs but are now struggling with higher interest rates. 

DTIs stop FHBs buying houses. Forcing a 5 year term would allow FHBs to buy while forcing them to mitigate the risk of interest rate increases. 

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A far better option to tackle inflation - and one that directly effects the thought processes of those making 'greedflation' decisions - is to tax high income people and companies more until inflation comes down.

(Why we don't have a sliding scale for company tax like we do for PAYE is beyond me. Perhaps Terry could address this at some time.)

 

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Possibly, but I can see some issues:

  • Government tax take would be all over the place and very difficult to budget for
  • Companies would pass on the extra tax and create more inflation
  • High income people may just leave
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On your third point, it could be argued that high income people have low personal incomes regardless (e.g property under LLC's or under trusts) for tax purposes.

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Or tap out of the market at a certain point resulting in a higher unemployment rate. For instance, is that extra 30K-50K before tax profit really worth the extra headache of that extra staff member? 

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If a bank fails (goes bankrupt), what happens to borrowers (mortgagors) of that bank?

Thanks. 

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My guess, is given they are an asset to the bank the receiver would look to sell them off..???

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Yes, assets are sold if the bank is wound down, as in the case of Lehman Bros, or they are retained by the bank if they are bailed out like RBS. 

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So you're saying a property used to secure the mortgage would be sold by force, are you certain about that?

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I'd imagine the mortgage book is sold on, i.e. you owe money to whoever takes it on. Bank B (or Government B) starts taking your money rather than the defunct Bank A. 

Not an expert though, and I'm not certain there even are extensive rule books on how this goes. In the UK during the GFC it seemed like more of a 'fly by the seat of our pants' approach to crisis management. 

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Definitely not the case. Loans would be managed by an administrator until such time as a buyer is found. That administrator may well be the RBNZ if it were here. The last possible thing you want is a bank in administration and 100k borrowers having to simultaneously find a new lender. 

If the loans are performing they will be sold for close to par, clearly there are bad loans somewhere. Once equity is wiped out then unsecured lenders take a haircut (deposits/bond holders). 

 

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Yes, that's also what I believe.

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The loans and collateral would be sold to another bank. The collateral itself would not be sold. 

If no other bank would buy the loans the government would. 

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Sorry Cam, but guesses are not really good enough on a financial website, where people have many thousands of dollars at stake.

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The advice was worth what you paid for it.

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True, however most people here are not registered to provide financial advice, and readers with many thousands of dollars at stake should not depend on what they read here to make financial decisions.

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Classic. How bout mfd imagining? That’s worse than assuming.

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You don't know how imaginative my imagination is.

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Mate, I can only imagine. 

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What others have said. Performing assets, being borrowers making their payments, get packaged and sold to competitors. Non performing assets have a "sort it out" asap or have the security sold in a mortgagee event. Shortfall falls on shareholders. Depositors and bond holders get a haircut.

What made you ask that question?

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This is my experience from the UK when I had a mortgage with Northern Rock which imploded in 2008.

The bank was nationalised and liquidity injected to keep it running. All mortgage holders were encouraged to move elsewhere by hiking the interest rates (from memory, it went up from 4% to 7.5% overnight). I moved my mortgage to another bank swiftly. Any mortgages left sat on the government books until later being sold to an investment firm in 2016. The physical assets (branches, head office etc) were sold off to another bank in 2012.

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"from memory, it went up from 4% to 7.5% overnight" - I wonder if they can do that with fixed rates. There is probably some clause that allows them to. 

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northern rock    my first property was a 107% mortgage with tehm -   purchase , legal taxes and even some improvements --  got to love the dearly departed 

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Why dont you ask your high up contact at the BNZ. Then report back

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Good point, I have just asked him, here is his reply:

They would be sold to another entity as an asset (potentially at a discount to their actual value), or a Govt could step-in and take on the loans or transfer them to another entity.

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Precisely what others told you above

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Their mortgage is erased.

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Would be nice!

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Imagine the nation of 5 million people all colluding to coordinate bank runs at each retail bank, forcing them to collapse with the sole aim of wiping out the mortgages.  One way to free the country from debt enslavement.  

Vive la révolution!!!

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Just give me a few weeks notice so I can tick up a few rental properties and a bach in Pauanui/Wanaka before the big reset :)

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The war in Ukraine has economically crippled Europe and Germany specifically and will impoverish Russia and  the Ukraine for decades to come. It's benefited the US.  The Israeli -Hamas war  will not benefit Israel, the Palestinians or the US.

Ukraine should have been handed over to Russia but the US with a compliant Europe thought that using Ukraine as a proxy would be a winner. It may still be the case but its increasingly looking unlikely.

The statement "War is politics by another means" comes to mind. Relatively easy to have avoided the Russo-Ukraine war but the US and EU thought they'd pull a fast one on Russia.

 

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"Ukraine should have been handed over to Russia"  My word you are a generous guy Nigel. You are confused about who was trying to pull a fast one though. 

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Relatively easy to avoid a war, perhaps to not invade?

As for the US, the complete reneging on previous commitments to the Ukraine will serve as an appropriate warning to others who might have call to be involved with them, that list is reducing however.

On a related note, interesting that the BRICS now includes the Arab block, cat meet pigeons.  Also interesting to hear that 20% of oil is now not traded via USD...

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Yeah, the US has proven itself to be unreliable as a partner. It's amazing how a few "religious" crazies can basically feel OK with throwing 40 million people under the bus. Alternative Jesus loves guns, hates Mexicans, and wants women barefoot and pregnant. Perhaps after the rapture and everyone is floating around on fluffy white clouds, they can explain to the Ukrainians butchered by Vlad the invader, why they died for nothing? I wonder if there will be punches thrown?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrTnFC4gzys&list=PL5xMqzfPRE7DBqQA--Ejx…

Ukraine wouldn't have accepted Russian invaders even if western arms hadn't been supplied. There would have been initial resistance (I remember video of grandfathers in Kiev filling molotov cocktails for the welcome party), followed by purges, disappearences, deportations and ethnic cleansing, corruption reinstated into the contsitution and children learning how glorious Stalin was and how to drive a tank, until they are old enough to be turned loose on Moldova and the Baltics.

On oil being traded, I understand Russian oil trades in Yuan and Rupees, with the latter in particular building up in Kremlin coffers. No one wants to trade Roubles for some reason? What is Russia going to do with it's stash of barely tradable currency? I've heard some commentators mention the surge in bitcoin may have a connection?

 

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It is absolutely fascinating reading all the anti-American propaganda on this site - Speaking as a New Zealander  who used to be wary of "America" but ended up living here for the last 20 years and enjoying a reasonably high standard of living and experiencing zero crime - but yet to everyone outside the place apparently America is a cesspool of inequality , homelessness ,   endless gun crime and  is ruled by an evil clique of oligarchs intent on ruling the world . Amazing - its almost as if  the actual state of America is somehow far more  complicated than all  your projected  sterotypes .

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I'm guessing many here spend all day glued to RT? There's plenty of informative stories about the US declining into a swamp of drugged up psychopaths, tent cities flowing with excrement and little Vlad saving fluffy kittens from labs producing bioweapons engineered to target ethnic slavs.

On the other hand voting for politicians such as Bobert, Taylor Green, Santos, Gatz and quite a long list once you start counting, indicates a certain disfunctionality. I'm under no illusions about the US, but only an idiot would prefer New North Korea as global super power. 

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So how exactly did the US coerce Russia into invading Ukraine with tanks?

The invasion is only justified if you believe Russia has some kind of pre-existing claim over Eastern Europe as its fiefdom. Myself, I can't blame Ukrainians, Poles or Latvians for wanting to associate with the West rather than a doomed, fascistic oligarchy in Russia.

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Not to mention the past atrocities inflicted on those countries by Russians in various guise.

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I thought the answer to that was pretty obvious. The USA told Ukraine that we have your back and hence rather than try and negotiate, Ukraine got cocky and instead of just saying "We will not join NATO" they decided to go to war instead. Well ultimately the Ukraine is screwed because this year the support for them will stop and there will be no money for a rebuild either.

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"Ukraine decided to go to war". You are of course joking. "Support will stop". From the States? Who knows. From Europe, they don't have a choice. "No money? 50/50, depends how soon the global power down gathers momentum. There's a few hundred billion of Russian cash looking for a new home.

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So how exactly did the US coerce Russia into invading Ukraine with tanks?

Simple. The US / NATO has continued its expansion east - which it had promised it wouldn't. Just another form of imperialism. Anyone with a basic understanding of the conflict should understand this.  

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Ukraine choosing to (discuss) joining NATO is not imperialism; and not something they'd have to consider if they didn't have such a shitty neighbour. And as for promises, Russia promised Ukraine political independence and then invaded them, first with mercenaries and then with their army, when they rejected a government run by a Russian stooge. How on earth is that less imperialistic than uh, having discussions about letting someone join your mutual defence pact? 

I am absolutely opposed to genuine US imperialism, which we've seen in Iraq etc. - but this is not it. Nor is Russian imperialism (they are literally trying to reclaim their old empire) justified by the US version. You speak, like Putin, as if Ukraine were not a real country with the right to choose their own allies. How is that not itself imperialistic?

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Ukraine choosing to (discuss) joining NATO is not imperialism

If Ukraine's destiny is the critical factor, then the US / NATO should never have committed to not expanding eastwards. 

Do you understand why the US was fearful of Russian missiles being located in Cuba? There are parallels with Russia's position with NATO. 

As a side note, the Russian empire has been shrinking, not expanding. And the US has expanded its empire through military and monetary hegemony.  

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You make my point! It's very similar to the US-Cuba 1960s situation. In which the Americans tried to invade Cuba, which was stupid and unjustified, and so they (being smarter than Putin) stepped back when they realised it wasn't going to work, and settled for a nearly-as-stupid endless blockade. 

NATO probably shouldn't have spread eastwards, but a) I believe most of that expansion was at the behest of Eastern European nations who wanted protection and b) that isn't enough to justify outright invasion in my book; Russia broke a lot of promises too, does that justify a NATO invasion of the Motherland?

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NATO probably shouldn't have spread eastwards, but a) I believe most of that expansion was at the behest of Eastern European nations who wanted protection and b) that isn't enough to justify outright invasion in my book; Russia broke a lot of promises too, does that justify a NATO invasion of the Motherland?

Many ex-Soviet Bloc countries are already part of NATO. Regardless if you like their politics or not, Russia is smart to not want NATO at their doorstep. 

Bigger question you should ask yourself is whether or not the Ukraine conflict was avoidable. It was NATO / Ukraine who seemed hellbent on not being prepared to negotiate. Remember the Donbas region has fought its own battles to remain with Russia. 

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"Remember the Donbas region has fought its own battles to remain with Russia." No it didn't. Seems Russian propaganda wasn't wasted on some people?

There were pro Russian nationalists that were militarily supported by Russia. Any fake narrative of of protecting "Russian speakers" is moot now the entire male population of the Donbas has been smeared over the Ukraine landscape by loving leader. 

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 No it didn't. Seems Russian propaganda wasn't wasted on some people?

OK. If you say that it isn't true, then that must be your reality. Nobody can change that. But perhaps you are the one blinded by propaganda. 

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Here you are JC, enjoy :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnBzTNaqnRY

More from the pulpit of St Solovyov

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7UVUR9HoRo

Light entertainment for Russian babushkas with their evening borscht.

Poor Simonyan crying about lack of allies. Probably because only fascists like fascists.

 You're in good company, everyone from Chomsky, to Alex Jones is a Putin fanboy. Personally, you can tell a lot about a person, by who they hang with.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/497942/north-korean-s-kim-jong-un-says…

 

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Palmtree needs to understand the 2014 Minsk agreement, which was adequate.  But the US / Ukraine ignored it despite originally participating.

Some here seem to think there was no history prior to the last few years.

I think of this war more as a nasty ethnic conflict, essentially unsolvable as those are.  Brothers and cousins murdering each other.

 

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Some here seem to think there was no history prior to the last few years.

Yes. Also, many Westerners like to transpose their own ideas of sovereign nationhood on to Ukraine. 

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Seems Ukraine has the same notion of sovereignty I do? i.e not being annexed and run by the neighbouring mafia.  

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KH needs to understand the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing no agression by Russia against Ukraine!

"The Russian federation ................reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE final act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine" pg 169.

https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/v3007.pdf

The Minsk agreement wasn't respected by either side, but then it's hard to deal with a Russian state that lies pathologically. 

Database of russian regular units identified in Donbas between 2014-2021

https//informnapalm.org/db/russian-aggression/#lang=en&page=m_unit

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Oh come on! NATO was basically irradicating it's military before testosterone and botox pumped Vlad decided he wanted to be Peter the Great #2. There was never a "treaty" on NATO expansion, although there were several that Russia signed guaranteeing Ukraine sovereignty. 

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"the Russian empire has been shrinking" The US was a Russian colony for 4 years and could be again.

Russia certainly has a large sphere of influence in easilly corruptable regimes around the planet. Geopolitical instability and Russia are like what flies are to a turd. The only reason Russia isn't more successful at projecting itself, is the grift that keeps it's economy hollow.

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Russia certainly has a large sphere of influence in easilly corruptable regimes around the planet.

It's like you had a dream and were invited to a BBQ at the Clintons. Chewing the fat with Hilary.  

Yes, Russia has influence. China has influence. The US has influence. There is a pattern. 

"Corruptable" is simply a prism. Ukraine is arguably "corruptable" (not that the US admin will want to focus on that too much).

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The Ukraine population was sick of the corruption imposed on them by Kremlin culture, hence Maidan!

https://www.transparency.org/en/news/countering-russian-kleptocrats-wes…

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Spare me. Ukraine had its own oligarchy and has a reputation as one of the most corrupt countries in Europe.

TI is a dreadful organization by the way. It frames corruption through its own Western prism while ignoring the soft corruption endemic in countries even at the virtuous end of its indexes.  

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Spare you what? You seem clueless about how the USSR/Russia function(ed)s! Ukrainian corruption was a hangover from the imposition of Moscow rule for decades. Nepotism/corruption was a national pastime under soviet rule. Nothing could be done without handing over a bit of unofficial cash. Ukraine is trying to deal with its corrupt Russian inheritance, Vlad wants to reimpose it. 

Funny how all ex soviet block countries struggle with corruption(theft) and rate lowly! It's no coincidence! I guess TI isn't conforming to your personal biases? Stop being an apologist for blatant fascist imperialism!

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Ukraine good. Russia bad.

Egyptian journalist Mohammed Al-Alawi, who exposed the luxurious villa purchase by Olga Kiyashko, Ukrainian President Zelensky’s mother-in-law, was found dead in Hurghada, Egypt under suspicious circumstances, according to El Mostaqbal.

https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=E210US826G0&p=journalist…

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Correct NATO needs to stop trying to move towards Russia. Like the Russians were ever going to tolerate the possibility of missiles just 160Km from Moscow, anyone can see that especially after the Cuban missile crisis.

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Which country do you think is 160km from Moscow? Even Belarus is more than 300km away.

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Weak start to the year for the NZX50.

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Are you normally easy to please

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I see those greedy unions are at it again in Wellington:

the butcher's union going on strike to obtain a uniform 10-hour day instead of the existing 14-to 18-hour day.

and the bootmakers striking to shorten their 16-hour day

 

p 95  "Poverty and Progress" by W B Sutch

I forgot to mention that was in 1872.  At least we're not so greedy these days.  Life is tough.

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yeah thats funny back when labour supporters worked....       not so sure when labour lost there path to iwi propaganda and pro nouns and green BS, they have to revert back to supporting the people who LABOUR each day with their hands and minds

to make a crust to get their hands back on power....   so far to the hollow fields.

 

Labour 26.91 vs nat 38 %...........           time to be humble and say sorry but ..... like the fonz they cannot say it

 

hippy must go he is part of the rot.......         but the answer may well be a split of power a right labour leaving the maori vote and the lefties to their own, much like new labour but to the right.

 

personally at this pointy i hope he stays on dooming them

 

 

 

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You mean like big increases to minimum wage?

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