Net population gain from migration hits new record of 127,000 in year to November

Economy / news

Population growth from migration is now almost double what it was pre-Covid

19th Jan 24, 1:07pm by Greg Ninness

Population growth from migration surged to a record high of 127,209 in the 12 months to November last year, according to provisional figures* from Statistics NZ.

The previous record for that time period was a net gain of 67,725 in the 12 months to November 2019, which suggests migration levels have been running at almost double what they were pre-Covid.

The net gain of 127,409 people came from a net loss 44,464 NZ citizens who left the country long term, and a net gain of 171,873 citizens of other countries arriving long term.

These numbers exclude visitors and tourists and those staying in the country for less than 12 months, regardless of the reason for their visit.

Altogether just under a quarter of a million (249,504) people arrived in this country long term in the 12 months to November, which was the highest number on record for any 12 month period.

That was made up of 27,096 returning NZ citizens and 222,408 citizens of other countries.

That was partially offset by 122,095 people who left this country long term over the same period, which was also the highest number on record for any 12 month period.

The departures included 71,559 NZ citizens who left the country long term plus 50,535 citizens of other countries.

The table below shows the net annual gain for both NZ citizens and non-citizens and their combined total.

The biggest source countries (by citizenship) for migrants arriving this country in the 12 months to November were India 50,270, Philippines 35,769, returning NZ citizens 27,096 and China 26,270 plus another 558 from Hong Kong.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

*It takes 16 months for provisional migration figures to be finalised and they may be subject to significant revisions during that period.

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74 Comments

by K.W. | 19th Jan 24, 1:14pm 1705623296

At the current rate, how many years before non-NZ born residents outnumber NZ-born ones?

by Spider | 19th Jan 24, 2:45pm 1705628723

In my household there are 3 people born outside NZ for every 1 born in NZ - terrible isn't it. Guess I should send my wife and kids back where they came from....

by Chch Lass | 19th Jan 24, 3:02pm 1705629731

That would be a good start!

by Yvil | 19th Jan 24, 3:12pm 1705630334

2 to 1 ratio in my h'h, lol

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 7:28pm 1705645713

The six adults born overseas. The three grandchildren are Kiwis with two of them 100% Pacifica

by rastus1 | 19th Jan 24, 1:15pm 1705623351

Amazing that M don't consider this a Treat issue.

by HeavyG | 19th Jan 24, 2:36pm 1705628195

184 years too late for the treaty to help. Pakeha, Asian or Indian, all the same to Maori.

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 2:47pm 1705628840

Surely it was Ranganui Walker who said the treaty applied citizenship to subjects of the sovereign so if you accept membership of the commonwealth as being subject of the crown then Indians can settle here but not Chinese. But it is contraversial to actually ask what the treaty principles actually are.

Are fellow Polynesians acceptable to Maori? Probably not since the English require visas to enter NZ and work visas to work and residency visas to settle down.

by HeavyG | 19th Jan 24, 2:52pm 1705629139

Any immigrant coming to NZ now will be paying top dollar for any land that they buy. The great land theft has already wiped out Maori land ownership so any immigrant coming now whether from India, Polynesia or Timbuktoo... same same.

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 7:29pm 1705645774

Outside of the cities land is still cheap - compare to other countries.

by rastus1 | 19th Jan 24, 2:52pm 1705629148

The resources we have left amongst are being spread across an ever increasing imported popn - who have zero affinity or sympathy to Maori causes.

Do they not care?

by JimboJones | 19th Jan 24, 2:57pm 1705629467

Maori Party actually had the best immigration policy last election (I watched a minor party debate). Although it was less about the treaty and more about build the houses first.

by HeavyG | 19th Jan 24, 2:59pm 1705629563

You think Luxon cares for Maori? After been screwed for 200 years Maori will take their chances with a new population. They cannot be any worse.

by Averageman | 20th Jan 24, 1:35pm 1705710941

Oh...let's let enough of the CCP move here in bulk then.

Would only take .002% of their population to move here to take control of Parliment, and .045% of their military to enforce what ever they wanted.

Talk to some Mongolians to see how much worse it could be for everyone. Organ harvesting and state control of all land and resources anyone...?

by JimboJones | 19th Jan 24, 3:00pm 1705629614

Related subject - what is the point of the Treaty Principles Bill? https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350151916/highly-contentious-leaked-mi…

He has also poured cold water on the Bill, saying National would only support it to select committee stage. It needs support from more than 50% of Parliament to come into law. Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith reiterated that promise on Friday.

Doesn't that make it a waste of time and money? Sounds like something ACT would be all over if another party did it!

by HeavyG | 19th Jan 24, 3:19pm 1705630782

That's my point, don't throw Maori under the bus for the Government's immigration policy. Luxon, Seymour and Peters are pulling the strings. Blaming Maori is race baiting.

by Murray Falconer | 19th Jan 24, 11:13pm 1705659187

These numbers are really from the previous Governments settings.

Some would argue Maori had considerable say/sway in that governments polices, yet they didn't use it in the immigration space. I personally think they could have won considerable 'across-race' support for putting the interests and future of all current citizens first.

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 11:14pm 1705659298

Current excessive numbers and serious increase in worker exploitation is entirely the previous Labout government's fault and proof that Labour knows little about ordinary workers in typical workplaces. However doing little or nothing about it will be entirely the fault of Luxon, Seymour and Peters.

Labour = dumb, out of touch with the real world

National = Sinful, Immoral (Please prove me wrong).

by Nzdan | 20th Jan 24, 8:35am 1705692901

I would rate being sinful and immoral as a far worse trait than being dumb and out of touch. It's like, National possess the acumen and competency to be in touch with everyday New Zealanders and come up with long term smart initiatives, but they choose not to.

Also wonder how Immigration policy would integrate into current immigration settings. If you have individual employment agreements, performance bonus incentives etc tailored towards volume of applications processed then you've contradictions there. Also, if INZ are processing 1/4 of previous volume of applications then do you lay off 50%+ of the staff?

by singautim | 20th Jan 24, 1:57pm 1705712229

Your rating is right. National will be sinful if they see exploitation and then do nothing. To be fair I'll wait and see but my past instincts have always had me voting against National.

INZ use glacial processing as a filtering system. It works with the top talent chosing to go to other countries (how many PhDs in STEM subjects from IISc Bangalore arrive in NZ and how many go to California, Oxford, Cambridge?). Reducing granted permanent residency visas by 75% to match most developed countries would not necessarily reduce the number of applicants. INZ processing times are in months but my 2 month old granddaughter with both parents born overseas and the father never having been to NZ had her NZ passport granted in under a day. Why should INZ be so drastically slower than the Passport office?

I've been looking for rational arguments pro immigration that actually hang together - your idea that it keeps half the staff of INZ employed is sound.

by Flying high | 20th Jan 24, 8:53am 1705694005

Instead of labelling please name some examples of what you describe as sinful and immoral. Is it for allowing retailers to sell durries or for reversing the order of English / maori and stopping the practice of paying bonuses ??

by singautim | 20th Jan 24, 2:01pm 1705712489

Allowing workers to be exploited when you could do something about it would be sinful. And immoral. Lets wait and see.

Note Andrew Little thought his policy changes would reduce exploitation - he was wrong it has increased it but that was not sinful unless he anticapted this result and I'm sure he didn't.

by Flying high | 20th Jan 24, 3:12pm 1705716761

I'm sure your standards of morality are far higher than mine then. You're not a Labour voter if that's the case.

Btw whats your timeframe for the gnats to fix their "sins", remember Labour had six years of creating the mess

by singautim | 21st Jan 24, 7:44am 1705776249

I'm sorry that the words I've chosen are so emotiver that my message is lost. That message is the Gnats have to fix a mistake made by Labour.

Timeframe? Similar to how long you would wait before calling the police if your neighbours are punching their children.

by Zachary Smith | 20th Jan 24, 9:10am 1705695058

Stupidity is more dangerous than sinful and immoral. Sinful is a very subjective term and not really appropriate in this discussion.

by singautim | 20th Jan 24, 2:06pm 1705712783

I was searching for a strong term. Knowingly taking no action is bad. Watching someone drown when you have ropes and lifebelts available is sin. Throwing the belt and hitting the drowning man on the head would be stupid and sad but not a sin unless it was intended.

The national party and its allies do not need to apologise for a situation created by a previous govt but they do have a duty to respond.

by J.C. | 19th Jan 24, 1:19pm 1705623544

Madness but I guess if the gates weren't open, the economic scorecards might show we've fallen off a cliff much worse than what the sheeple expect. And in many ways, we probably need to accept that the bureaucrats wear the trousers when it comes to immigration.

All I know is that the quality of life will deteriorate for existing citizens and migrants as our infrastructure does not grow or improve for a growing population.

by Yvil | 19th Jan 24, 1:24pm 1705623874

😳😵‍💫😳 Unbelievable, can't be good for our aging infrastructure, for traffic congestion, for hospital beds and staff, schools and the upward pressure this puts on rents.

Most employers do now have enough staff, so immigration should be scaled back markedly, NOW!

by K.W. | 19th Jan 24, 1:27pm 1705624067

As there are now 25,000 more people on welfare benefits than this time last year, it would appear that mass immigration is now replacing NZ workers rather than filling vacant jobs. That's over half a billion dollars extra in welfare spending NZ is going to have to find. And its going to get worse.

by the Joneses | 19th Jan 24, 1:38pm 1705624681

Immigration, the cause of, and solution to, all of the NZ Governments problems.

by Waikatohome | 19th Jan 24, 1:44pm 1705625090

'Unemployment must rise' to beat inflation | Stuff

According to economists we need higher unemployment to battle inflation. Apparently too many in work is a bad thing. People on benefits are serving their country and we should be thanking them for taking the hit on our behalf.

by Grattaway | 19th Jan 24, 3:06pm 1705629966

some of them are not taking a "hit". They come to my business asking that can we sign their form saying that they looked for work but none was available. If the form gets signed they can continue as is - unemployed and ok with that. We tell them to keep looking

Unemployment rules need to be tightened significantly - especially for the single and young

by interesting1234 | 19th Jan 24, 3:27pm 1705631220

We don't need higher unemployment per se, but we need everyone to spend less to lessen inflation, however good luck getting the general population to do that voluntarily.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 19th Jan 24, 5:11pm 1705637496

Taxing people more is a really good way of ensuring people spend less.

And it can also be targeted at the people who are spending more.

Damn. If the solution is so damn obvious, why aren't we doing it?

Oh, right. Political dogma and ignorant Kiwis.

by Thinker | 19th Jan 24, 1:38pm 1705624707

It will be interesting to see probably March onwards if immigration drastically falls off due to jobs not becoming available. You've already got a situation where job ads are now at their lowest since 2017 and applicants per job are approaching record levels which gives us some key insights. Short term it sucks, but should drastically drop off that is assuming the migrants aren't rich of course - I'm talking the ones that come here with not a lot behind them.

by Kauri | 19th Jan 24, 9:20pm 1705652420

Annual net migration is appallingly high but look at the monthly figures. Net migration is rapidly falling. August 14.1k net, September 11.5k net, October 10.5k net, November 4.6k net.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-migration-…

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 1:41pm 1705624909

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/01/19/failed-labour-hire-firm-ele-recruite…

The Philippine Ambassador to New Zealand Kira Azucena said the situation does not paint a good picture.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 19th Jan 24, 5:14pm 1705637654

In diplomatic-speak that's almost shouting, "WTF! You b'stards! Short your sh#t out."

Completely deserved of course.

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 1:48pm 1705625295

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/01/19/young-underpaid-migrant-worker-felt-…

""A young migrant worker is set to be paid more than $30,000 after feeling like a "prisoner" working 50 to 60 hours per week and only being paid for 30.""

"" this employee felt helpless and suffered the deliberate and systemic offending that her employer caused ""

How many employers get away with it? Would they do it to a Kiwi worker? How many exploit immigrant workers but no so extreme - for example paying 40 hours for 50 hours work - so they can get away without prosecution.

NZ's international reputation for integrity is going down the plug-hole.

by J.C. | 19th Jan 24, 1:54pm 1705625669

This stuff really angers me.

by nz-it-worker | 19th Jan 24, 2:03pm 1705626226

It’s an imported problem. Migrant exploitation would be near nonexistent if we didn’t have employers who are recent migrants.

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 2:38pm 1705628331

Don't blame it on migrants exploiting migrants as if we Kiwis can wipe our hands of the issue. It is an NZ govt failure. Thegovernment has known about it for decades and specifically since Prof Stringer of Auckland Uni produced a report in Dec 2016 about worker exploitation. She was quoted as being surprised as to how extensive it was.

It is not migration that is wrong it is how it is handled. I've friends in Guernsey and that small island seems full of people born elsewhere but they are very fussy who they let in (I suspect it is money that matters most) and then fussy again when they apply for permanent residence.

by interesting1234 | 19th Jan 24, 3:30pm 1705631438

Were they not a tax haven for a while? I know Amazon UK used to use them for their DVD rental arm a decade or so back for tax purposes.

by nz-it-worker | 19th Jan 24, 4:14pm 1705634069

New Zealand has had a history of immigration of people from all economic tiers with very little problem of worker exploitation in the past. The pivot to South-East Asia as the predominant source of migrants has resulted in a surge of exploitation. Yes the government needs to be far more fussy, mainly because of the cultural norms of a number of these recent arrivals. Given the enthusiasm for a free trade agreement with India, I don't see the growing culture of exploitation subsiding any time soon.

Last month, it was revealed that Labor’s reforms to Australia’s immigration system would not apply to Indian nationals because of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed between the two nations by the former Coalition government.

“Nearly 50,000 Indian students now in Australia will escape a key measure in the federal government’s clampdown on international student visas because of a Morrison government agreement with India that guaranteed the conditions applying to post-study visas for Indian students”, The Australian reported in December.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/01/indian-agreements-erode-australias-sovereignty/

by Murray Falconer | 20th Jan 24, 12:04am 1705662286

To some extent that is true, however, this remains an NZ government created problem by linking employment with residence benefits.

Take away the employer/hiring agent ability to offer residence and there will be much less for these employers to hold over their new staff.

Furthermore, we just need to introduce an adjustable annual levy of circa 40k (what some pay for a job offer currently) for any business crying about how they cannot find workers. Let them pay the cost of employing off-shore upfront and directly. I suspect when faced with this levy, most of these desperate businesses will 'magically' manage without someone from overseas. Genuine cases of need would be able to be recruited in a timely fashion as soon as the levy is paid.

Immigration since at least the 2000's has been all about benefits to those coming here (residence for them and their family) and the businesses they work for (low wages, compliant staff) while spreading long-term costs for the new residents over all taxpayers. Those include additional infrastructure needing built, higher welfare payments for locals displaced, higher WFF due to suppressed wages and more in accommodation supplements due to higher rents than would otherwise have been the case.

by pacifica | 20th Jan 24, 3:15am 1705673752

Employers can set up new companies to manage accommodation for less than $200. Next

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 2:52pm 1705629133

""This stuff really angers me."" You and me both. We are a trivial minority that is ignored.

by J.C. | 19th Jan 24, 4:13pm 1705634006

""This stuff really angers me."" You and me both. We are a trivial minority that is ignored.

I'm not in the woke camp. Actually they anger me as well. You rarely hear the woke celebs talk about this. OK they have occasionally talked about the exploitation of Pacific Islanders. They pay lip service to others like South Asian migrants.

by Nzdan | 19th Jan 24, 2:06pm 1705626361

A quick look at the companies register for the company in question, why am I not surprised at the names?

Article heading should be: "Another migrant employer underpays migrant worker".

by Colin Cameron | 19th Jan 24, 2:30pm 1705627826

NZdan. Should be a law for new Immigrants if you break the law you lose NZ residence and are deported no matter if you have children born here. But oh how the few would hate that.

by interesting1234 | 19th Jan 24, 3:31pm 1705631509

It would certainly add gusto to the court case when the prosecution lays into them confirming they knew the full weight and risks of their decisions.

by Rhumline | 19th Jan 24, 9:38pm 1705653536

It would be better for the Nats than beating up the Treaty that's for sure!

by Hardly | 19th Jan 24, 2:38pm 1705628282

The penalties for migrant/employ exploitation aren’t anywhere near high enough. Banning people from being in a senior position/director of a company, massive personal fines and jail time should all be on the cards. We should also invest in proactive inspection.

by J.C. | 19th Jan 24, 1:53pm 1705625623

Just reading a document about the foreign population of Osaka. The two largest wards of the city now comprise 13% and 8% foreigners respectively. That's a massive change from the past.

Big difference between Osaka and urban Nu Zillun is that they already have the infrastructure to deal with increased or replacement population.

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 2:32pm 1705627944

What are the comparable Auckland wards? For North Shore: "" Ethnicities were 62.6% European/Pākehā, 6.3% Māori, 3.6% Pasifika, 31.6% Asian, and 4.1% other ethnicities. People may identify with more than one ethnicity. The percentage of people born overseas was 47.6, compared with 27.1% nationally."" So I'm living with 31% of my neighbours from Asia; if I was a native of Osaka what percentage of my neighbours would be Kiwis?

by morepork | 19th Jan 24, 2:57pm 1705629463

Some of those that identify as Asian will be born here. Some of those that identify as European will be immigrants. It's not a very useful way to see how many recent migrants there are.

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 11:18pm 1705659521

Another way: ""a quarter of a million (249,504) people arrived in this country long term in the 12 months to November""

by malamah | 19th Jan 24, 1:56pm 1705625788

The current government aren't responsible for the policies of yesteryear, but they are responsible for helping solve the problems we have now.

Based on KWs stat above, for every five additional immigrants we get, one additional person ends up on a benefit.

For every 5 additional immigrants we get, how many are of working age?

For every 5 additional immigrants we get, how many additional beds are available?

For every 5 additional immigrants we get, how many jobs are available?

For every 5 additional immigrants we get, how much tax revenue is lost due to lower wage pressure?

Instead we're looking at;

Cutting public service jobs by ~15,000

Cutting benefits to encourage people to work (what jobs!?!?)

Cutting around the social housing wait list so we can kick people out of homes and into the street.

Cutting infrastructure projects (logical part) with no real alternative approach to solving our aging infrastructure (illogical part).

by Averageman | 19th Jan 24, 2:36pm 1705628185

The exited coalition of chaos clearly flip flopped massively in and attempt to win the election. And has left a mess.

Labours attempt to force employers to embrace the unemployment was a failure. All that happened was employers fought over the good staff and unleased the mother of wage and price spirals. Clearly not a brain cell looked at causes of inflation.

Good riddance.

by 1689 Baptist | 19th Jan 24, 2:39pm 1705628390

As a pakeha, I resent people coming here from far away and taking my stuff.

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 2:50pm 1705629002

I resent anyone taking my stuff. I am willing to sell it at the right price in an open market to anyone from near or far.

by fortunr | 19th Jan 24, 2:50pm 1705629038

Too much too fast.

Properly managed immigration can be really good, actually necessary - but unmanaged immigration is a recipe for disaster.

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 8:03pm 1705647827

You are right but is INZ capable of managing anything? 21 years ago I arrived as a computer programmer and the attempt to define the skills needed was embarassing. I needed certificates proving I had attended SQL training - I'd given such courses to graduate programmers but had no certificate. I had to prove I knew web design so I attended evening classes in a Glenfield, two hours per week for six weeks. It was a joke. I can't believe it is any better today.

A dutch auction for visas would be better - easy to administer, exact control of numbers, quick (how many great immigrants have been lost to NZ because of INZ sloth?), profitable for tax-payers. Some pre-defined adjustments for location, age, family size and health issues. NZ might end up with more 'chefs' and tourist guides than nurses but isn't that true with the current system.

by Eschaton | 19th Jan 24, 4:57pm 1705636671

By god people , wake up, speak up, this is nuts.

by wingman | 19th Jan 24, 5:14pm 1705637648

That should give Auck property prices a decent nudge upwards.

by MikeM | 19th Jan 24, 6:31pm 1705642287

And to think that half of this number will settle in Auckland....

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 8:07pm 1705648074

https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/11/14/85-akl-businesses-caught-in-migrant-…

"" An investigation has found "high levels of non-compliance" with migrant worker standards at 85 Auckland businesses. ... The alleged breaches include workers being paid below the minimum wage, no employment contracts, inadequate or no record keeping, holiday and leave entitlements being withheld, visa condition breaches and employers demanding money from their employees.""

by Hardly | 19th Jan 24, 10:12pm 1705655565

What were the punishments for these infractions?

by pacifica | 20th Jan 24, 3:19am 1705673951

For many a warning

by singautim | 19th Jan 24, 8:12pm 1705648329

https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/06/chinese-migrants-struggling-to-survi…

"" Fu Hai and Zhao Yao arrived in New Zealand from China in March, having been promised steady construction work and high wages by an agent back in their home country. They paid the agent roughly $16,000 — about 10 months' worth of their salaries in China — for an Accredited Employer Work Visa (AEWV) to work for a NZ sub-contractor involved in Waikeria Prison's development of a new unit

"[The agent told me] if we can stay in New Zealand working long-term, we'll have the opportunity to obtain residency and our wives and kids can come to New Zealand."

Q+A has seen the men’s documents. They both signed contracts with an Auckland-based company promising $25 an hour for a minimum of 30 hours of work every week. ... after just two months, they were suddenly told by the sub-contractor not to return to work while still being owed money for dozens of hours of work. Fu and Zhao claim they had their tax deducted from their pay by their former employer, but they say IRD has no record of them working in New Zealand. Zhao said the lack of that record meant, during an interview for another job, he was told he couldn't be recruited.

by Murray Falconer | 20th Jan 24, 12:12am 1705662774

we'll have the opportunity to obtain residency and our wives and kids can come to New Zealand

When will NZ wake up to the value given away by these agents and employers just so they can pay low wages (and in some cases merely collect the job offer fee)?

by singautim | 20th Jan 24, 7:20am 1705688407

https://unherd.com/thepost/canada-is-buckling-under-record-immigration/

"" One can start with Canada’s life-blighting rise in housing costs — by the far the steepest in the G7. By an amazing coincidence, Canada also has the highest level of immigration. These facts are obviously related, but expect the ultra-immigrationists to claim it’s not the number of arrivals which is the real problem. For instance, Freeland reckons that 'we have to build more homes faster.' But if that’s such an easy solution, then why not peg immigration levels to house-building levels?

Not only would this put the horse before the cart, it would be a sign of good faith on the part of national leaders — assuming, of course, that they have any. ""

by Zachary Smith | 20th Jan 24, 7:45am 1705689910

This practice of immigrants paying large amounts of money to get a poor paying job in NZ has to stop. It's a huge red flag. Employers should be paying these expenses after carefully selecting recruits, not the prospective employees with no guarantee of a long lasting job.

"Agencies" will accept money from just about anyone, consequently we will get a lot of chaff with the wheat. Some migrants coming over appear to be far too old as well. Agencies don't care they just want the big bucks.

by Averageman | 21st Jan 24, 10:21am 1705785716

Mass immigration with no mandate other than people scamming a profit has to stop.