A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes, listings surge, FBU hit, commodity prices hold up, record bank funding levels, swaps up, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). It's a skinny edition today.

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None so far today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.

LISTINGS SURGE
A surge in new listings is a key feature of the current housing market. High stock levels in the market at the start of this year mean buyers have plenty to choose from over summer.

INSURANCE ISN'T COVERING IT
Fletcher Building said its NZICC project (Auckland Convention Center) rebuild "remains on track" for completion in late calendar 2024. They are still waiting on an insurance payout of "more than $100 mln". But they now suspect more will not be covered so they are adding a new provision of $165 mln to complete the work. They also said they have raised a further provision of $15 mln for the Wellington Airport carpark issues.

EDGING UP
Overall commodity prices lifted in January, but only because of higher butter prices and a small retreat in the NZD.

NZX50 CHANGES
The food sector is this week's biggest mover with a +4.8% increase. This comes as A2 milk (ATM) gets a boost from 11th into 10th spot and finally back into the NZX Top 10. Overall, the NZX50 capitalisation rose +0.5% last week with the Tech Sector up +4.4%. But both the Consumer Goods sector, and Industrial sectors fell -3.2%. The others were little-changed. You can track the sector changes here. You can see the whole 50 companies here with links to their profiles. Profiles are updated with the latest annual account information, and there are a few of those coming through now for calendar year end balance dates.

NON-MARKET FUNDING RISES & GETS A [SLIGHTLY] LONGER DURATION
Total bank funding sources reached a new record $572.6 bln in December, but that is only up a minor +1.5% from a year ago. "Non-market funding" which is what they borrow from depositors reached $422.3 bln and that was up 3.3% in a year (+$13.8 bln). Funds committed by depositors for 1 year or more reached 16.2%, its highest level since May 2019. The rest, including current accounts and at-call deposits, continue to dominate. (Remember, 'depositors' are more than just households. In this case they include companies and government.)

SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates will probably be noticeably higher today. So far the 2yr swap is up +9 bps. (H/T IS.) However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.67%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is holding at 4.10%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.42% and a new all-time low. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up a major +13 bps at 4.75% (back to where it was a week ago), while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.66% and up +9 bps from Friday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.07% and up +5 bps from this morning as early market activity prices in a more reluctant Fed for March cuts based on the strong US labour market data. The UST 2yr is at 4.42% and so that key inversion is holding at -35 bps, unchanged from this morning.

EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is down -0.4% in late trade today. The ASX200 is down a full -1.0% in afternoon trade, not liking what they see in China. Tokyo has opened up +0.4% (probably benefiting from China-flight). Hong Kong has opened down -0.5%. But Shanghai is crashing further lower, down -1.7% in early trade and compounding last week's huge -6.7% loss. Singapore is also sharply lower at their open, down -1.5%. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open tomorrow up a minor +0.2% but that would embed another all-time record high.

OIL EASES FURTHER
Oil prices are slightly softer from this morning at just under US$72.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$77.50/bbl. It does seem odd that these prices aren't reflecting heightened Middle East tensions. Non-Middle East oil is plentiful, apparently.

GOLD SOFTENS
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2036 and down -US$4 from this morning and down -US$14/oz from Friday..

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.5 USc and down -10 bps from this morning and down a full -1c at this time on Friday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 56.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at just under 69.9 today and little-changed from this morning.

BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price dipped -1.2% today from where we opened this morning to US$42,371. There's been low volatility over the past 24 hours of just under +/- 1.0%.

WAITANGI DAY
Waitangi Day is tomorrow, Tuesday, February 6, and is a public holiday in New Zealand. There will be no 4pm briefing tomorrow. We return on Wednesday.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».