Breakfast briefing: A warning on bank asset quality

Economy / news

US inflation expectations ease; India inflation eases; China new car sales fall; ECB boss warns on bank asset quality; UST 10yr 4.17%; gold lower, oil holds, but natural gas prices dive; NZ$1 = 61.4 USc; TWI-5 = 70.7

13th Feb 24, 7:19am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of a warning of a permanent downgrade on asset quality that will affect banks worldwide.

But with Japan, China and Singapore all on holiday, global economic news is a bit thin today.

First up, American inflation expectations seem to be easing, even if the changes are small. But for the year ahead they were steady in January at 3%, the lowest in three years. Even though the overall pace is steady and key items are declining, some core elements are still relatively high. They were lower for petrol but at 4.2%, the lowest since December 2022, for food at 4.9%, the lowest since March 2020, and for rent at 6.4%, the lowest since December 2020. Overall, looking ahead three years, they are down to 2.4%.

In India, consumer inflation is falling also, even if there are some key elements that remain high. Overall it eased to 5.1% in January, the lowest in three months, from 5.7% in December and matching market expectations. Their central bank has a wide 2-6% target range. The slowdown is mostly due to an ease in food inflation and favourable base effects from last year. But food inflation only fell to 8.3% from 9.5%.

Indian industrial production was up +3.8% in December from a year ago, handily more than November's +2.4% and the expected +2.5%

Indonesia goes to the polls tomorrow in elections that include one for President. And it is looking like one candidate will win in the first round, current Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo is from the Suharto political dynasty. He also chose the son of very popular outgoing president Jokowi as his running mate. Jokowi is barred from running for a fourth term and many believe he is organising the Prabowo candidacy and will be a major influence in the new leadership.

And there was a second round presidential election in Finland over the weekend. Alexander Stubb of the centre-right National Coalition Party narrowly won defeating liberal Green Party member Pekka Haavisto, who conceded defeat. Stubb is pro-European and a strong supporter of Ukraine and someone who has taken a tough stance towards Russia.

In China, the January data on new car sales were a disappointment. They reported their first month-on-month decline in vehicle sales since August, despite renewed efforts by some carmakers to offer discounts in the world’s largest auto market. Just on 2.04 million vehicles were sold in the month, down -14% from December. Sales of passenger NEVs fell almost -30% month-on-month to 668,000, also the first such drop since August.

In Europe, a new ECB official is worried about structural changes in their banking sector and asset quality is starting to deteriorate. She warned of a permanently changed risk landscape that requires lenders to alter how they operate.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.17% and little-changed from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is a little less at -29 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is still at -74 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is unchanged at -121 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.19% and back up +3 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.45%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.94%.

Wall Street has started its Monday trading session with the S&P500 up +0.4% to yet a new all-time record high. Overnight European markets closed mixed, bookended by London's no-change and Frankfurt's +0.7% rise. Yesterday Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Singapore were all on holidays relating to Chinese New Year or similar. The ASX200 closed its Monday trade down -0.4% and the NZX50 doubled that, closing down -0.9%.

The price of gold will start today down -US$10/oz from yesterday at US$2014/oz.

Oil prices are little-changed, still at US$76.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just over US$81.50/bbl.

Perhaps we should also note the rather stunning fall in natural gas prices worldwide. In the US, these prices are back to levels they first had in 1990. In Europe, back to levels they first had in 2011. Not only is Russia a major exporter and suffering the downturn, so is Australia. In inflation-adjusted terms, natural gas has never been cheaper.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at just under 61.4 USc and marginally softer that this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down nearly -½c at 93.9 AUc. Against the euro we open at just under 57 euro cents and little-changed. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 70.7 and down -20 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$49,598 and up +2.8% from this time yesterday. And at that level it is now over NZ$80,000 for the first time since December 2021. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.3%.

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53 Comments

by nktokyo | 13th Feb 24, 7:35am 1707762945

How does one get a position at traffic management? Tens of thousands for a couple of days work managing road cones around road crossings sounds like the gig for me.

Luxon should demand a full enquiry into this. Clearly our roads are covered in cones because clever people have found a way to gouge the public purse.

How many more roads could we fix if 20% of the cost wasn't going to independent safety consulting firms?

by Baywatch | 13th Feb 24, 7:51am 1707763862

National and Roads will have us back on Track

April 3, 2010 - Despite fairly overwhelming opposition, it has been decided to allow the maximum weight of trucks on New Zealand’s roads to increase from 44 tonnes to 53 tonnes – although only on particular routes designated for this increase. Supposedly this increase will lead to the more efficient shifting of freight around New Zealand. This is what the government says anyway:

“This will help to reduce road congestion, operating costs, vehicle emissions and improve the road safety environment by slowing the increase in heavy vehicle movements on New Zealand’s roads.”

by agnostium | 13th Feb 24, 8:08am 1707764919

None of those things happened. All that happened was that the heavier vehicles caused massive damage to the roads and now we have shed loads of potholes that no-one can afford to fix.

by Slapheid | 13th Feb 24, 9:43am 1707770612

It should be noted the increase in road damage isn't linear.

For State highways it is more like x^2 and for low volume local roads it can be up to x^6

https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/603/RR-603-The-relationship-b…

by profile | 13th Feb 24, 8:48am 1707767333

Just look at Mckee Rd - axle and gross loads vastly higher than anything on public roads and one of the best roads to drive on in the country. Amazing what can happen when government isn't involved in road maintenance.

by Baywatch | 13th Feb 24, 8:59am 1707767974

Did you mean Andrew MckEee Rd at Auckland Airport - the most expensive place to park in NZ? (They have a monopoly on cars/trucks)

by profile | 13th Feb 24, 9:13am 1707768780

Murupara - Kawerau off highway.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Feb 24, 9:06am 1707768401

One notes they very conveniently overlook the fact that heavy vehicles do proportionately far more damage to the roads than cars.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2212/S00111/trucks-do-the-most-damage…

Just another example of how profits - in this case trucking firm profits - are subsidized by the public purse. (Have I mentioned that kiwis aren't that bright?)

by WestieAJ | 13th Feb 24, 11:26am 1707776794

Have a look at Move Logistics Share price. Domestic trucking is not all Champagne and Cocaine. Lots of competition and very hard to make a profit in the good times let alone the bad times. I would argue that the cheap cost of trucking in NZ subsidises everyone to soem extent. Monopolies like supermarkets can capture some of that subsidy for their own profits. But they also use it to cross subsidise prices in their more remote locations.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Feb 24, 11:55am 1707778550

I think you've overlooked how distortionary such subsidies are.

For example, they make trucking a cheaper option than rail. They make car ownership far more expensive than it could be. The rob people of time while they sit in traffic due to road works. And the rob governments of cash that could be used for other things because the roads need to be overengineered for just one class of user. And as you've noted, they distort 'competition' by ensuring the barriers to entry are kept artifiically low. And my personal favorite: they allow fools to whine about the fact that cyclists don't pay RCU. (Kiwis really aren't that bright when it comes to economics. It should be a compulsory subject at schools.)

by murray86 | 13th Feb 24, 12:43pm 1707781436

great response Chris

by WestieAJ | 13th Feb 24, 2:26pm 1707787612

Of course subsidies are distortionary. No argument there. But politicians cant help themselves most of the time. Focus groups and polling drive their decision making. Labour knew that $3.20 per litre 91 octane at Auckland pumps was politically damaging. So they were willing to forgo 2 Billion dollars of excise and road user charges in the name of fighting inflation (and placating voters). At the same time as spending 300 million to subsidise purchases of EV's and other low emission vehicles (to ingratiate themselves with a different set of voters).

Both ways to support private vehicle ownership and use. Because that is what the vast majority of people want and they will take a very dim view of anyone who tries to take it away from them.

Supply chains in NZ are made complicated by geography. Putting food on the shelves of Countdown Gore is very expensive compared to Countdown Henderson. But the customers in Gore expect to pay the same for their can of Italian tomatoes.

by FCM | 13th Feb 24, 7:58am 1707764320

I think you will find the TMP plans actually have to get sign off from NZTA and the local council depending on which roads the work is on. So they should be well aware of the costs involved.

by phalanax | 13th Feb 24, 8:16am 1707765377

TTM has recently gone thru a changeover to a restructured qualifications framework which has significantly impacted costs ... Practical tests are the gateway .... even those that have worked for years in TTM are having to requalify to the new standards... Im hearing 30% of the previously qualified arent making the new cut... practical test costs are high due to having to supply trucks and TTM crew for those looking to privately enter the trade. Over 65kph requires AWVMS ute , Shadow truck and Layout truck ...some places charging 7-10k to do all the required presets and final test for those not affiliated to the big TTM companies . Used to be 2 classroom day courses (TC) a few months apart (STMS) for under a grand and you could work on any L1 road or submit TMP's to council... Not anymore.... too many cowboys they say...but generally companies would ensure you were capable before giving you free reign ....

by agnostium | 13th Feb 24, 8:14am 1707765251

There is definitely overkill in some instances but you also have to remember that roads are one of the most dangerous places in New Zealand to work. The speed limits are set too high, it's full of idiots driving who all think that they are better drivers than average, we have increased to fleet of heavy SUVs and Utes which have a higher chance of cause death and serious injury to road workers, road safety improvements are continuously opposed by the anti-woke crowd.

We have one of the worse road safety stats in the OECD and National's Simeon Brown is doubling down on making them worse.

These are the consequences of those car-centric policy and investment decisions.

by legrandsoir | 13th Feb 24, 8:35am 1707766517

Good point - the cost of STMS should absolutely be considered as a cost of driving and keeping access available to cars. It's an incredibly inefficient way to work when you think about it, trying to do complicated earthworks and while allowing 1.5-2 ton vehicles to pass through at 30kmh. However as a result of our car dependency it is not realistic to close roads because of how many people depend on them as their sole means of transport.

I think the traffic management was also cranked up significantly after several road workers were killed near Whakatane a few years ago.

by agnostium | 13th Feb 24, 9:23am 1707769394

100%. Those complaining about the costs should get out there and see what it's like working in all conditions next to f'wits bombing past in their 2 ton utes (that are absolutely needed to run an accountancy business).

Actually maybe linked super to doing Traffic Management, an opportunity for them to give back for us taxpayers generosity, keeps the oldies active and out in the fresh air, we'd lose a few of them but that's fine they are just costing us taxpayers in medical expenses. *** For clarity this last point is sarc but it is the argument the NACT ideologists have had to come up with to justify their parties' tobacco policies.

by legrandsoir | 13th Feb 24, 8:25am 1707765919

On my way to work in Hamilton there is a side street adjacent to a main road (houses only on one side of the street) having some pipes replaced. It's narrow (no centre line) and is dead end. The part being worked on probably gives access to 15 houses max. At 7am when I ride past where are already 2 people doing traffic management and I can only imagine a third (or even fourth) being around as a backup.

At the very least they could be redeployed more productively in site cleanup - when the teams finish doing work the road is usually left a complete mess with gravel all over the place for weeks.

by M0ralHazard | 13th Feb 24, 7:39am 1707763195

Looks like the 1yr & 2yr swap rates have been shooting up this week. What has caused the big turn-around?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Feb 24, 9:29am 1707769772

The unemployment report was the trigger. Add that to others figures which are trending down but not 'fast enough' for some and you have perfect environment for 'story telling' (market manipulation?) by NZ's largest bank that the OCR might go up and/or it's definitely HFL. Swaps can be very volatile with massive short lived swings both up and down.

A few more days and we'll know where the new normal is although Orr's upcoming speech might make that new normal a further week or so away.

Just quietly, if Orr in his speech - on behalf of the MPC - indicates that the OCR isn't high enough and unemployment needs to rise and/or inflation come down even faster, their credibility will take a nose dive and questions will be asked why they didn't raise higher way back in '23. Central bank rates need to be going up/down/held. Flipflopping around and sending mixed signals just creates an economic mess of uncertainty and real investment in further capacity gets delayed even further. (I expect Orr to confirm their current rate and warn markets that the current rate will be there for quite some time. What I think they should do is cut 0.25% but say that rate will be held 'for quite some time' to ensure the observable good trends continues. If they dare mention tightening the DTI ratios anytime soon it'll set of a house buying rush.)

by M0ralHazard | 13th Feb 24, 10:46am 1707774377

It seemed like a big over-reaction to unemployment data that was heading in the "right" direction, and most likely going to keep going that way. A lot of the increases in salaries for public sector are unlikely to continue to rise at the same pace I would have thought.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Feb 24, 12:02pm 1707778966

Yup. The LCIs (Labour Cost Indexes) are divided between public and private sectors.

The public service got a decent cost of living increases before the election but the private sector has been trending down for over a year. Both LCIs will continue to fall as the economy contracts further (on a per capita basis). Bye, bye wage driven inflation (if you believe such things actually contribute much to inflation. I believe it's way, way over stated.)

by murray86 | 13th Feb 24, 12:45pm 1707781503

Too general Chris. Some in the public service got good CoL increases. Many didn't.

by JimboJones | 13th Feb 24, 12:27pm 1707780445

Everything is heading in the right direction, but a bit slower than RBNZ thought. I doubt they will increase the OCR, but I don't think they can cut without more proof. Perhaps if the next CPI in 3 months also comes in low that is enough.

by Eschaton | 13th Feb 24, 7:57am 1707764234

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/debt-to-income-aucklanders-need-almost-20…

Ladder being pulled up big time. People ( and their progeny) who borrowed millions for multiple properties based on paper gains are laughing.

by M0ralHazard | 13th Feb 24, 8:01am 1707764505

So the median household in AKL isn't far away from being able to purchase the average house under the new rules? I wonder what the data looks like for the bottom quartile for both (as that is more FHB territory)

by HouseMouse | 13th Feb 24, 8:18am 1707765488

At present interest rates and a 30 year mortgage that’s more than $1700 pw.

I suspect few if any households earning 170k could afford that…

by JimboJones | 13th Feb 24, 10:54am 1707774861

88k a year just for mortgage, then add in rates, insurance and maintenance. Assuming the $170k is before tax, it is $134k (best case with equal incomes) after tax and kiwisaver. And you are too loaded to get any WFF etc.

by Foxglove. | 13th Feb 24, 8:21am 1707765691

Michael Cullen November 2020. “It’s bad enough that we see keep seeing new rungs added to the top of the house price ladder. It is even worse when those rungs are being taken from the bottom of the ladder.”

by nktokyo | 13th Feb 24, 11:27am 1707776837

we should vote for Labour and give them 6 years to make a dent in housing

by HouseMouse | 13th Feb 24, 8:12am 1707765127

Fletchers….

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ross-taylor-will-consider-his-posit…

by FCM | 13th Feb 24, 8:24am 1707765854

and so he should, as well as some of the board. Maybe time to sell a few of the businesses under the brand. Meanwhile Synliat is also a basket case.

by lonewolfnz | 13th Feb 24, 8:34am 1707766469

Well, I guess selling most of my BTC at $42,700 in April 2022 seemed like a good idea at the time.

Only good thing was getting a bit back near the bottom

by EdwardD | 13th Feb 24, 8:37am 1707766639

Agreed and meanwhile eth today 🚀

by Baywatch | 13th Feb 24, 9:02am 1707768150

Solarna will eat your ETH lunch

by Baywatch | 13th Feb 24, 9:57am 1707771454

Crickets chirping on this site...wonder why?

by profile | 13th Feb 24, 12:26pm 1707780366

"natural gas has never been cheaper" is going to keep the peak oil tragics subdued?

by KH | 13th Feb 24, 8:41am 1707766867

So many cones you can stop noticing them. That's dangerous.

by Audaxes | 13th Feb 24, 9:13am 1707768831

The FT complains that falling EV prices in China mean "deflation." Ford sold the Model T for $850 in 1908, and for $260 in 1925, at the peak of the 1920s boom. That's supposed to be a bad thing? https://ft.com/content/e06124 Link

by dmitri | 13th Feb 24, 12:56pm 1707782188

BEIJING, Feb. 7 (Xinhua) -- China's vehicle sales surged 47.9 percent year on year in January 2024 to nearly 2.44 million units, said the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on Wednesday.

https://english.news.cn/20240207/0a3c0cac38824213ae1259d8b948b289/c.html#:~:text=BEIJING%2C%20Feb.%207%20(Xinhua,of%20Automobile%20Manufacturers%20on%20Wednesday.

by kiwikidsnz | 13th Feb 24, 9:30am 1707769856

Does anyone remember any disclosure about Jacinda offering to donate $30 Billion of NZ taxpayers money a couple of years ago?

https://www.bassettbrashandhide.com/post/barry-brill-an-absurd-ardern-a…

by Baywatch | 13th Feb 24, 11:15am 1707776114

Let her go Kiwi..

I am sure her honeymoon is going well, but Clarks ankle monitor must be annoying 😆

by kiwikidsnz | 13th Feb 24, 9:58am 1707771514

In last weeks Curia poll, 9% of respondents still indicated that Jacinda Ardern was their preferred Prime Minister.

Lest we forget.

by Baywatch | 13th Feb 24, 11:13am 1707775987

Any news on tax cut kiwi...much more relevant topic ...then looking backwards all day?

by mfd | 13th Feb 24, 10:48am 1707774493

No timetable for interest deductibility rules phase out yet either. Must be a few property investors out there worrying they are about to be thrown under the bus to make the promised tax cuts affordable.

by sparrow | 13th Feb 24, 11:35am 1707777330

We can only hope.

by Baywatch | 13th Feb 24, 11:53am 1707778408

We deserve this backpay....it's hard work being a land Lord..

by psyguy | 13th Feb 24, 12:03pm 1707779028

"National had committed to phasing in interest deductibility over a period of time, but under the coalition agreement the process will now start with a 60% deduction in 2023/24, 80% the year after, and 100% in 2025/26."

28 Nov 2023

by Squishy | 13th Feb 24, 10:11am 1707772309

...ECB official is worried about structural changes in their banking sector and asset quality is starting to deteriorate.

If you have a property bubble obviously banks willing to take the most risk will be most profitable and first to be toasted by the end of that bubble.

by J.C. | 13th Feb 24, 12:16pm 1707779792

The bitcoin price starts today at US$49,598 and up +2.8% from this time yesterday. And at that level it is now over NZ$80,000 for the first time since December 2021.

Most NZers will never own a whole Bitcoin at these prices. Part of the issue here is that the demand for ratty is 12x greater than the supply being mined. That demand is being generated by the likes of Fidelity and Blackrock.

If the long-term holders of BTC all dumped on the market, then that would obviously put downward pressure on the price. But 80% of available supply has not moved in the past year. Diamond hands.

by EdwardD | 13th Feb 24, 12:23pm 1707780218

Diamond hands and the knowledge that the halving is about to occur.

by J.C. | 13th Feb 24, 12:42pm 1707781358

This is where the ruling elite messed up. I don't think they expected the diamond hands to hold the line. The halving is just math so they can model this accordingly. They can't model human behavior.

Wonder what Ashley Church makes of it. Remember asset prices are only supposed to double every 7-10 years. Not every year for the past 15 or so.

by Averageman | 15th Feb 24, 9:36pm 1707986168

Most simply just dont understand ratty. What it' is. Who it is. Why it works. The idea behind it. How to access it. For every billionare created there is a story luke the ex CEO of Mt Gox who got a bullet to the head for losing the wrong people's funds after they got hacked.

It is essentially anti FIAT, anti govt control, anti bank control, and immune from central bank interference and debasement. There are forks that are design to be transaction untraceable.

The global banking elite must be very wary. It is an unstoppable vote of no confidence in FIAT and its abuse by the elite and central banks.