A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; Resimac ups rates, PMI 'less weak', IAG NZ profits jump, Orr solely inflation-focussed, population soars, swaps little-changed, NZD on hold, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). It's a skinny edition today.

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Resimac was the only institution to raise fixed rates today, and they raised them all.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB raised their TD rates for terms 5 to 12 months, and trimmed their 2 and 3 year offers.

"LESS WEAK"
Activity in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector improved in January, but still remained in contraction, according to the latest BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index. January’s result is the 11th consecutive month of contraction even if it was "less worse". Today’s release did have a couple of positives, noted BNZ. Food processing remains expansionary, with signs primary production has so far largely skirted the potential ills of El Nino. Across components, employment stood out like the proverbial with a poke back above 50. This is at odds with deeply negative production and demand indicators like new orders.

BIG JUMP
IAG New Zealand’s gross written premium leaped 18.8% and insurance margin rises to 20.8% in its half year results to December 2023.

TARGET: CORE INFLATION
Governor Adrian Orr says the Reserve Bank is focused on core inflation and is not willing to tolerate even temporary inflation pressure.

YOU SHOULD READ THIS
David Tuffley of Australia's Griffith University details eight key corporate pricing tricks. This is the sort of gritty and explicit analysis we love.

THERE IS MORE OF US, & WE ARE OLDER
StatsNZ said our estimated resident population was (provisionally) 5,305,600. That is up +145,100 or +2.8% in a year. That is the most since the end of WWII, almost 80 years ago. But they caution, these estimates are currently 2018-based until results are available from the 2023 Census which get rolled out starting in May 2024 and finish in 2025. There may be adjustments coming. That change is not reducing our median age - surprisingly. It is back to its record high 38.1 years. (For reference, there are now just over 27 mln Australians, and their median age is 37.6 years).

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed again today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -3 bps to 5.71%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.20%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.45% while they are on holiday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -12 bps to 4.89%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.92% and down -2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.25% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 2yr is now down to 4.59% and so that key inversion is unchanged at -34 bps.

EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is up +0.5% in late trade today. And the ASX200 is also up +0.5% in afternoon trade. The NZX50 is heading for a weekly fall of -1.4% but  the ASX200 is heading for an unchanged week. Tokyo has opened up a very strong +1.3% and if that holds it will be up +4.7% for the week and within less than 1% off its all-time high set in December 1989. Hong Kong has opened unchanged at their open. That will be +1.6% up for the week if this levels holds. Shanghai is still on holiday. Singapore has opened up another +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session up +0.6%, and back challenging its Monday all-time high.

OIL RISES
Oil prices are up +US$1.50 at just on US$77.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$82.50/bbl.

GOLD BOUNCES BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2004/oz and up +US$11 from this time yesterday.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has risen slightly from where we were this time yesterday, now at 60.9 USc and up +10 bps. Against the Aussie we have slipped to 93.6 AUc, a -30 bps slip. Against the euro we are essentially holding at 56.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at just over 70.3 today and little-changed.

BITCOIN ESSENTIALLY ON HOLD TOO
The bitcoin price has moved back a little today, now at US$52,001 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. There's been high modest over the past 24 hours of just on +/- 1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».