Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news China is having a tough time sharking off its housing blues.
However in the week ahead, the Americans will release PCE data that will be closely watched. They will also release updates for the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the second estimate of GDP growth rate, durable goods orders, consumer sentiment, and housing sales data. There will be CPI inflation updates coming from Japan, Australia, and the EU. GDP growth for India and Canada will be updated. And factory PMIs for China, Russia, and Canada will out. And the RBNZ MPS and OCR interest rate decision will attract international focus on Wednesday afternoon. Locally, it is the key focus this week of course.
But today we start first in China. They released official data that showed foreign direct investment in January was down more than -11% from the same month a year ago. That is their biggest retreat since the GFC. And the more recent data is even worse, falling more than -20% from December.
It wasn't the only retreat released in official data. China's new house prices fell the most in almost a year in January with prices in 60 of their 70 largest cities retreating. For resales, this official data only showed two of the 70 cities in their survey with a month-on-month gain, none with year-on-year gains. For such pervasive declining prices to show up in official data probably means the situation is much worse, and it is now quite difficult to sell a house. Buyers have vanished, unwilling to buy a depreciating property. It is notable that China does not release official sales volume data.
Recall that in February, the Chinese central bank chopped its 5 year MLF rate by a record -25 bps to its lowest ever. This is the rate on which home loans are based. They also cut the reserve ratio earlier in the month, another easing that might help their property sector.
EU inflation expectations are essentially holding at 3.3% for the next twelve months. The ECB would have been disappointed at that, and the fact that the "last mile" is proving very sticky. However, it is not a problem that they have alone.
The German economy slipped into recession in the second half of 2023 if you buy into the "two negative quarters" rule on GDP changes. The retreat is minor however and was as expected.
In Australia, Rio Tinto has given the go-ahead for a big new iron ore mine. It is in West Africa. The iron ore price has held relatively high, encouraging miners, and Rio Tinto's decision is just one of many. But the accumulation worries some. Iron ore prices are not factoring in the wave of new supply, leaving it vulnerable to the same collapse that smashed battery metals like nickel, some say. If that were to happen to iron ore, it would rock Australia.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.25% and down -1 bp from Saturday, down -5 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is fractionally deeper at -44 bps. And their 1-5 curve inversion is slightly more at -73 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion still at -115 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.15% and down -2 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is now 2.41% and a new all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.92%.
For those interested, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported its results over the weekend. They were impressive. And here is a link to his iconic "Letter to Shareholders".
The price of gold will start today down -US$3/oz from Saturday at US$2035/oz and up +US$25 from a week ago.
Oil prices are still lower at just on US$76.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still down to just under US$81/bbl. Both levels are -US$2 lower than a week ago.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at just under 62 USc and little-changed from Saturday. But it up more than +¾c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we have settled back to 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are slightly firmer at 57.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 71.4 and that is +60 bps higher than a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$51,299 and up a minor +0.5% from this time Saturday. But it is down -1.9% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.7%.
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154 Comments
Even Hamilton can't escape bulk immigration https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350190345/move-over-tauranga-hamiltons-…
Sounds familiar.
"It makes me weep what high house prices have done to this country. I see an entire generation, if not two, psychologically damaged, almost beyond repair, because they cannot afford somewhere decent to live.
They feel inadequate. They delay starting families, or have smaller families, or have no children at all because they cannot afford anywhere to house them. They then hate themselves because they have no children.
The result of smaller families later in life is population decline. The Blob then says there aren’t enough young people and opens the doors to mass immigration. Guess what happens then? Cheap imported labour pushes wages down, but increases demand for housing and essential services. State systems are too slow to adapt. Housing gets even more unaffordable. It is the most vicious of vicious circles.
Why do you think so many young people are so nihilistic? Because deep down they know they are never going to be able to afford anywhere decent to live, never mind pay off their student loans or have a family. They are, effectively, excluded from society."
https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/dimwitted-housing-policy-and-the?utm_…
What are you talking about suicide rates are going down, from https://mentalhealth.org.nz/suicide-prevention/statistics-on-suicide-in…
Ministry of Health suicide trend data shows that between 1996 and 2016
There was a 20% decrease in the national suicide rate, although this was not equal across all populations.
Also between 2017 and 2022 the decreased from 12.7 per million to 10.2.
Yeah the media like to ham it up by stating absolute values, you have to listen carefully or you will miss it, are going up, you know cherry picking those values so there can be a crisis.
About that Ministry of Health data.
“An additional death in Auckland has today been added to the national Covid-19 figures,” the Ministry of Health said.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/11/11/new-lynn-shooting-victim-was-positiv…
For the years ending 30 June 2009 to 2018, the rate of confirmed suicide deaths increased from 11.3 per 100,000 in 2009 to peak at 12.4 in 2018. The rate of suspected suicide deaths decreased from 12.6 in 2019 to 11.6 in 2021 (see Table 1 and Graph 1). According to Carla na Nagara, the Director of the Suicide Prevention Office, there is a need to see a decline over at least a five-year period before a meaningful downward trend in suicide numbers and rates can be established."
https://www.parliament.nz/media/9014/suicide-in-nz-snapshot-march-2022…
"The figures below are taken from the provisional data by the Chief Coroner, the Ministry of Health, and other sources of information"
https://mentalhealth.org.nz/suicide-prevention/statistics-on-suicide-in…
"Factors that can decrease the risk of suicide include good whānau and family relationships and secure housing."
https://www.parliament.nz/media/9014/suicide-in-nz-snapshot-march-2022
"Secure housing" in terms of having a stable place to live. That's not the same as having cheap houses for people to buy. Otherwise, there's many places around the world that have house price to earnings multiples of 25x or higher, that should have stratospheric suicide rates, instead of ones lower than ours.
People are trying to claim it's a significant reason. Doesn't appear there's much weight to that. As in, if we were wanting to address suicide (or even mental health in general) in the country, house prices are way, way down the list, and the larger contributors are somewhere totally separate.
Suicide rates, like excess deaths and Hunter's laptop are non-information. "What I’m referring to is information that is essential to the understanding of an important issue but which is deliberately ignored by the media."
https://www.fairobserver.com/business/technology/breakfast-with-chad-wh…
profile,
Spot on. It makes me angry/sad to think that my 4 grandchildren may well struggle to afford to live here. I'm old, so mix with other old people much of the time and cognitive dissonance is rampant. I hear people expressing their sadness about the high cost of property for their grandchildren, but absolutely refuse to consider any mechanism that might affect their own property value adversely.
At this point, both in Hamilton and the wider anglosphere, it's just become a clusterf--k really. I've been a diligent saver and investor since a young age but what really hit me was ending up in the position of supporting a non-working partner and child. Whether you are paying rent or a mortgage, going down to one income (unless you are on $150k +) changes everything. While we still live in comfort in the sense of having clean water, healthy food, internet, and shelter (albeit damp and cold in winter), our discretionary spending is about $50 a week which surely isn't doing much for the wider economy.
And that in a nutshell is why our hardworking and educated youth are voting with their feet. NZ was settled by people looking to escape the enslavement of the "mi Lord" land owner. Even several generations on this motivation is strong. Our protection of the ponzi and the smug landowner is only punishing NZ as best and brightest of our future tax paying workforce exits to pay a lifetime of tax elsewhere.
Hard to trust a dataset that can't line it's axis up properly
People have been saying that forever, yet living standards have never been better. The vast majority of NZers live in a warm insulated house, have plenty of food, access to good healthcare, multiple cars, communications, etc. Compared to say the 1960's when people lived in small uninsulated boxes with 5 kids and 2 bedrooms, ate the same boring food every day, didn't have all the technology advances in medicine and died much younger, could only afford one car that was often broken down, etc.
The vast majority of NZers live in a warm insulated house, have plenty of food, access to good healthcare, multiple cars, communications, etc.
At any one time, approx 50% of people in the Anglosphere couldn't access $1000 of savings in case of an emergency. Source is for the US and other studies show that approx same proportion in Aussie / NZ savings accounts are <$1000.
https://fortune.com/recommends/banking/57-percent-of-americans-cant-aff…
Most human existence at most points in time has been hand to mouth, that doesn't cancel out what Jimbo said. You'd be better off with almost no savings today, than at any other point in history.
Has there been a protracted point in time where people have had significantly more excess money?
You'd be better off with almost no savings today, than at any other point in history.
To some degree, yes. But for most people, no. And why is that? Because cash is still the most easily accessible means of exchange. Most people are living paycheck to paycheck for basic needs or for a lifestyle they think they deserve. That's why they have little cash savings.
You could argue that saving money is a fool's game. And to some extent, I agree. But it's better to have some cash than no cash. And of course if people had diligently saved in an asset like Bitcoin, they're also likely to be in a better position than most.
this more accurately describes where we are at ... there are few options to live cheaply now
https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2024/02/how-economy-changed-there…
"Back in the day, even stupidly expensive cities like San Francisco had working-class districts with cheap rent and cheap eats. One reason the hippie movement arose in San Francisco was the availability of cheap places to rent in what many would dismiss as rundown slums or ghettos. There were plenty of working-class hole-in-the-wall restaurants and cafes that served cheap plates of spaghetti, turkey legs and other affordable fare.
..
...What changed in the economy is now nobody can afford to get by on working-class wages because there's no longer any bargains. Life used to be good for those with modest incomes because there were still bargains to be had. Not any more. Life is now a struggle because it's no longer affordable
Although I would like it if house prices where much lower, I think they are insane, and I do think it has negatively effected may people, but the reasons for people have smaller families and starting later are varied, I don't think you can reliably tell if house prices are a significant factor, sure there are SOME people who it is but some is a terrible world, it makes almost any statement true.
Other factors for starting a family later, are women working, cultural norms, global warming. Also I think its a bit far that to say that a significant number of people hate themselves because they don't have children.
Birth rates have gone down in every 1st world country, even without insane property prices.
When population planning is done based on babies born each year the Govt has 5 years to plan for schools for them, 20-25 years to plan to accommodate them in homes and jobs, and 65 years to plan to accommodate them in retirement. When an immigrant family gets off the plane there is no time to plan anything, but there is immediate demand for two jobs, a house, schools, and medical services.
Throwing fuel on the fire was a Labour Govt that oversaw unprecedented immigration levels in 2019, then granted permanent residency to every single one of them in 2022, unleashing them in one simultaneous assault on the housing market, and funding them with taxpayer grants. All without any thought as to the effect this would have. They then doubled down and imported an even greater number of immigrants in 2023, because clearly 210,000 new permanent residents wasnt enough already!
Diesel price per L in Auckland still higher then it should be at around $2.31L at local Gull vs $2.02 at Gull Wellsford...
Good old Waitomo Ngaruawahia $1.99
Regarding China Property
Buyers have vanished, unwilling to buy a depreciating property.
This attitude could spread as fast as covid did.... we should watch this carefully. Wear a mask and stay away from OneRoof.
All good. Just got this on my facebook feed. Time to pop the champagne.
"January data show prices are warming up as more than half of New Zealand’s regions saw year-on-year average asking price increases - one broke the national record."
https://news.realestate.co.nz/blog/new-zealand-property-market-2024-jan…
- An investor who put $10,000 in Berkshire 20 years ago would have $
- 65,300 today versus $110,700 in the Nasdaq
You could easily have 20x'd+ in Ethereum buying as late as 4 years ago. Buffet wouldn't have been buying. But many people were.
Interesting to note, Ethereum has outperformed Nvidia over the past 4-5 years.
I wouldn't be surprised if an asset like gold booms over the next 10 years while the monetary system collapses under its own weight.
He came out and said it will be impossible to repeat the past performance as there is too much competition and most opportunities are overvalued, currently a net seller of equities and cash pile is growing. hitting the limits PDK
Buffett admits Berkshire’s days of ‘eye-popping’ gains are over
In his latest letter to shareholder, the legendary investor says there are only a handful of companies capable of moving the needle at Berkshire.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/buffett-admits-berkshire-s-d…
Opotiki - “If you've got 25 gang members outside the pub patched up and, on a good day, three staff in Ōpōtiki, then do the maths on that. How's it going to work? It's not,” one says.
“I would never go and try and de-patch someone because of some policy that someone in Wellington's told me to do while they’re sitting at home and having a hot cup of coffee… I'm putting my life at risk” adds another.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/02/26/gangs-rife-police-scarce-is-national…
Already under consideration...because...priorities
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/508165/police-may-step-back-from-re…
When you sort out the minor crimes, it also reduces the bigger crimes. See New York - https://www.city-journal.org/article/how-new-york-became-safe-the-full-…
The purpose of banning gang patches is to remove the aura of intimidation so the community doesnt feel so threatened. Feeling safer, even if you are not, is still better than feeling unsafe in public. Would you enter a pub with 25 patched gang members sitting outside? No. Would you enter a pub with 25 guys in hoodies sitting outside? Yes. There are now so many of these gang dropkicks that sooner or later tourists are going to start reporting back that NZ is looking like Baltimore (Rotorua is already there) and NZ cities become tourist no-go zones.
Its also to make them less appealing to young people by making them seem less "cool" which will reduce gang recruitment. All the little things add up to major changes over the years.
Would it not be better to concentrate on the first issue ..like recruiting more cops ..and be honest with the public? Why stress out more cops, make them head over the ditch, set up to fail like last time they tried it. Rising gang numbers related to first profiles comment also..
And we won’t get them. Job is too unappealing and just as importantly housing is WAY too expensive relative to their pay.
But some of us were saying this kind of crisis in key workers would happen, more than 10-15 years ago. But most of the population and pretty much all politicians couldn’t see beyond their own self interested, short term horizons.
Pumping the ponzi for short term gain was far too important
Ultimately someone has to pay the piper
Forget house prices, I think unappealing jobs are going to be a big issue going forward regardless. With such a low unemployment rate and high minimum wage, who will want to put their life at risk or work in a rest home etc when you could just work at Maccas or an office job etc.
Yes, but if you are dedicated enough to become a police officer, there are other options like teacher etc. The Maccas example is more for the likes of rest home workers, surely they will be a massive issue for NZ, we can't afford to pay them much more than minimum, but who would do it? In Japan they import Indonesians to do it.
I have a good friend who is a police officer. Many of his peers have gone to Aus, where the pay is a bit better, and cost of living much lower (ex Sydney).
The only reason he stayed was a combination of family reasons AND the fact that he was able to get a shared equity house through NZ Housing Foundation, which is effectively a lottery win.
This country’s approach to housing, daring back decades, is going to cause insurmountable issues.
Most commenters here know this
A group of rich white people not immediately agreeing on hitting poor brown people with batons based on what they are wearing at the time?
But seriously, nobody wants gangs, but if it was as easy as 'getting hard on them', then Brazil wouldn't have a problem. The government should look at the many well researched reports they have commissioned over the years on how to reduce gang levels, instead of populist sound bite policies.
Jesus, Yvil sometimes I wonder whether it's your IQ that let's you down or your anti-social tendencies.
The studies have been done. National either haven't read them or have chosen ideology over evidence again to appease numbnuts that think everything has an easy soundbite solution.
Protip much like population stats most gang members have European heritage. Sure it ruins the credibility of being the excluded victims from society but most of those suffering exclusion and real deprivation are not in gangs, they are the victims of gangs, and most gang members were those with the clubs & batons in their hands when peace and community were put forward as ideas for a better society. They are the ones stealing flood relief resources from those in need, they are the ones stabbing people for wearing a shirt of a different colour, they are the ones promoting violence against women and others in their community.
It does not take a genius to work out that kindness & more support workers (only caring for criminals and not the victims of crime who get left to severe destitution and suicidal ptsd & depression) is not going to work with those who only seek to enact violence & abuse in multiple forms. But when the police have limits to what they can do to remove gang members from an area in public & business they are threatening then they need more legal reasons to do so. The patches were never going to be enforced en masse and the public are not going to think that is the case. The police sure face more limits preventing violent threatening behaviour and it shows how little protections most of society has when their lives are at stake.
National plan to sanction the beneficiaries, reward landlords who buy up the housing stock, cut health and education, put more people in prison, make the police spend their time fighting gangs over clothes, cut customs budget, and expect the gangs to reduce in number. Yeah right.
And right there is the problem. The Govt needs to start by not making single parenting a well paid career choice, overhaul Oranga Tamariki so Maori kids are actually protected from their families and not assaulted and neglected by them, ensure kids turn up to school, pay attention while there, and teach them something useful instead of woke cultural rubbish, then make sure they get full time employment rather than languishing for years on the unemployment benefit with a side hustle in gang crime. Seems to me that National are tackling all of the above.
Having many family deeply involved in the gang life, & having gotten out it would have to be
1. drug, theft & sex crimes market, the gains are alluring and the marketing is pushed heavily as a way to take control, to be strong etc etc.
2. violent abusive culture of intimidation, which is from the fascist management structures to the domineering control over all members.
3. suggested awards for violent and destructive behaviour which is far easier then actually designing, making and maintaining things. As destructive violence & theft requires no degrees, no logic, no thought.
4. drug, familial and sexual abuse, with a culture of intense control and domination. With families & partners sucked in thought their connections into the gang world. You can no longer love and still associate with family in a gang without being drawn into being a part of it or condoning the behaviour. You can only leave by disowning those still in as otherwise it is a descent into darkness even if you are trying to help others or escape addiction yourself.
5. lack of supporting family stability (in that there are often no other good alternatives or role model families because it is all looking shit). With the most law abiding often being in more destitution and more often the victims of violent behaviour, so why be law abiding.
Each point has a different aspect; violence & abusive control over a stranger is different to abusive control over a gang member which is turn is different to violence & abusive control over family (heavily manipulated into supporting gang life). Seeing abusive control as a family model and replicating that as an alternative to being a victim etc etc.
Patches and overt symbols are a part of that. It is also why many have claimed Nazi symbols as their own because they could not themselves think of something that could be as widely recognized and infamous. The lifestyle appeal with a branded logo or series of them. A uniform they put on while they lay down their lives by the hundreds for incredibly minor gains... oh wait hang on that would make them an incredibly rubbish form of authority with moronic followers in lock step. Its fascists leading those who failed to learn about fascism in schools.
Yes I was going to say the same. At least legalise Marijuana. Might reduce domestic violence etc too.
They say Marijuana is a "gateway drug", but surely making it illegal creates "gateway gang visits". Kids go to their local friendly gang house to buy weed, but they conveniently have run out that week and and up buying P.
If you take away a large source of income from the gangs, they will simply replace it with something else. Its not like the gangs are going to go "oh, we cant make any money, lets stop being gang members". Look at the US. They legalised marijuana in most places, and now they have a raging Fentanyl problem. I'd much rather gangs sold dope than sold Fentanyl.
I'd rather they sold neither, personally. If people are addicted to heroin, then provide it for them in safe locations for free while trying to get them off it. Don't leave them out there at massive risk of accidental overdose as they don't know what they are buying - fentanyl is 50 times stronger than heroin which is why so many people are dying.
The problem of drug addiction has been allowed to spill out into huge negative externalities of gangs, crime, health and death for too long.
Interesting anecdote: a friendon Oregon, where they have legalised all drugs, has told me they are now backtracking and trying to re-criminalise them due to the level of public drug use of the likes of meth and fentanyl, the number of addicts flocking to the sate to feed their habits and the societal issues that come with this.
Absolutely treat addiction as a health issue.
Absolutely treat drug dealers as criminals:
"Laws in Singapore permit the death penalty for people convicted of trafficking more than 15 grams of heroin, 30 grams of cocaine, 250 grams of meth, or 500 grams of cannabis."
Correction most recreational drug users are addicts, most drug users in general are not. Do you understand the difference? Especially when we have an opioid & meth crisis it is important to distinguish when drug use goes from controlled & prescribed to addiction & drug seeking with negative health & community effects. Making excuses, diminishing the rate of use or harm for personal addictive drug taking is a common factor in some of the most entrenched addicts. The same playbook of excuses get trotted out so often for severe deadly addictions that they are easy to spot heavily addicted people. Perhaps you should get some medical advice around your drug use. Saying oh we only do it for fun [on a regular basis] is a sign of serious addiction & does need careful management to ween off to improve health outcomes and reduce serious risk of death each time you take drugs.
Drugs & drug addiction are simply a way to exert violent and abusive control over members of the public and other gang members. It is just a mechanism for that control but other forms of manipulation do exist and are also used by gangs. Sexual, financial and relationship abuse are far more common (it is hard to be an addict to being sexually abused per se but abused partners are often drawn back in) but nevertheless financial means of control can enable further abuse.
Drugs were and always will be an easy form for maintaining the abuse & control as people become addicted, and drugs are far easier to access when your family members or friends are the ones dealing. But you can still control, threaten and intimidate people & keep them in a cycle of abuse even if you do not have them addicted to drugs. There is a reason gangs endorse the party lifestyle followed by swift retribution. It is not for the drug market alone but for maintaining more visible, physical and violent control over the bodies of those suffering from their relationship abuse (as friends, associates, partners and family members).
Gangs consider they are outside the law & take pride in this. They believe it’s their cultural mana to behave how they want to with no regard for & wilful abuse of anyone elses civil & legal rights.
Outlawry used to be common & statute law for centuries (until around WW2). Outlaws could be killed on sight by any citizen with impunity.
It's the standard angry old man rant when people point out things are more complicated than they thought and their "easy" solutions are proven to be ineffective ... We'll, well, knock some sense into the bloody kids and if that doesn't work, kill them all and let God sort them out
They are the leading fascist gang... but sure intimidate and abuse over 60% of people under threat of death for incredibly minor things in the way they were born. Yeah there is a problem. You actually need to use law & higher standards and morals to tackle gangs not immoral acts of violence against people for how they are born and extreme levels of violent control for them existing in that state.
This just shows your lack of understanding of why people join gangs. These are disenfranchised and alienated youth that can't see a visible path to status and respectability ahead of them. The massive increase in inequality over the last decades is partly to blame but if you say you want to address that you're labelled as a communist.
Take away the patch and they will just find another way to identify themselves as gang members, it's being a gang member that is the issue, not wearing the patch.
Doing a lot of the research, from the health psych side & having many family deeply involved in the gang life, & having gotten out it reasons for joining would have to be:
1. drug, theft & sex crimes market, the gains are alluring and the marketing is pushed heavily as a way to take control, to be strong etc etc. Its the hook. Patches and physical branding are a key part of the marketing strategy.
2. violent abusive culture of intimidation, which is from the fascist management structures to the domineering control over all members. Forming habitual destructive relationships and abusive controlling behaviours.
3. suggested awards for violent and destructive behaviour which is far easier then actually designing, making and maintaining things. As destructive violence & theft requires no degrees, no logic, no thought. Reinforcing abusive destructive behaviours.
4. drug, familial and sexual abuse, with a culture of intense control and domination. With friends, families & partners sucked in thought their connections into the gang world. You can no longer love and still associate with family in a gang without being drawn into being a part of it or condoning the behaviour. You can only leave by disowning those still in as otherwise it is a descent into darkness even if you are trying to help others or escape addiction yourself.
Hence gang membership will always grow as it is hard to stay out of a gang & gang life with family in it. Sexual abuse & abusive control of family members will result in less family planning support & larger numbers of less supported children who suffer trauma from familial abuse. Abusive destructive behaviour becomes so ingrained that it takes concerted effort & needing isolation from all gang influences & behaviours to try to avoid the same pathway.
5. lack of supporting family stability (in that there are often no other good alternatives or role model families because it is all looking shit). With the most law abiding often being in more destitution and more often the victims of violent behaviour, so why be law abiding. Hence for some gang life was a choice but it also was one that upbringing could lead them to. There is no system to provide a supportive positive upbringing outside of gang members and influences so it becomes a part of the family and replicating that violence a part of the cycle as both victim and later abuser.
Each point has a different aspect; violence & abusive control over a stranger is different to abusive control over a gang member which is turn is different to violence & abusive control over friends & family (heavily manipulated into supporting gang life). Seeing abusive control as a family model and replicating that as an alternative to being a victim etc etc.
6. Ideologs and utopic idealists see leaving kids with gang members as a positive but in reality abusive controlling actions have multiple levels and it is not solely physical domination. Gang influences and early trauma in a childs life have a huge impact on them and leads them to replicating the same abusive violence & control they witness. Suggesting the gang as a community is deceptive because outside of abusive control there is no supporting structures, it manipulates those around it through their relationship to the gang into condoning violence and destruction of community.
Suggesting a Maori for Maori does not solve the fact that most abuse & gang members have European heritage. Abuse & violent gang behaviour and abuse of children is a learned social abusive behaviour, not a trait of any one culture. A Maori for Maori approach but leaving the children to be beaten by parents because "they need to stay with whanau" even extended is deadly. To the point of when it happened to family many of the kids were harmed to the point of death multiple times. It only leaves children in environments of trauma including to be re-exposed to those who do them actual harm. Often the abusive parent learnt the abusive behaviour from whanau (of multiple cultures) who have a clean slate due to the era of reporting so it only reinforces the abuse when they go from one abusive home to the next.
7. Praising strength & leadership as key attributes but failing to praise education, diplomacy, community service, loving equal relationships etc is also what leads to gangs being easily able to attract those who know strength is only associated with violence in NZ (to the point politicians & key orators use violent and threatening language to make their point). Sadly violence is also growing in NZ and it leaves a host of children in its wake, many to be swept up into gangs because the lifestyle of abuse is so familiar and it is better they see to be the abuser, seen as strong and in control over others, then the victim, destitute and wounded, without support.
Had a large gang tangi here last week. Generally we'll behaved, the usual few idiots doing stupid things. Police everywhere, and the police helicopter flying over the marae, which most locals thought was unnecessary. They will pick up ta few stragglers to show the policy is working, but won't try an tackle large groups. Zero effect on crime.
Yet responsible for most the violent crime and familial abuse. Strange you seem to skip over that even a few gang members can harm tens of thousands more people. Just take any group of victims from a shooting or severe family violence events and the net of people it affects is much wider as their friends and family grieve for them, the survivors suffer for a long time into their lives. It only takes a few grains of arsenic, a few acts of violence, to make the water toxic and cause severe illness in the drinker, the community as a whole. Only through concerted filtration and support of water testing can we be sure it is safe for everyone to drink.
There were probably 20 police , and around 500 gang members/family members . All the police did , was take bikes or cars that had outstanding warrants at checkpoints. apart from the helicopter, they never came down the marae road , where i observed the reasonably good behaviour. The couple i saw doing stupid stuff were local idiots , who aren't in a gang , and are always doing stupid stuff.
I'm generally in favour as well, at least from the position that being tough on gangs is "morally right". Apologizing for gangs, which are inherently anti-social and designed to intimidate, is an inexcusable position to take IMO. There is no such thing as a gang member who is out in public being "well behaved" if they are patched up - their mere existence is an affront to common decency. Doubly so when doing things in groups like holding their tangis (which going on what I've seen are just an opportunity to menace other motorists).
You can rightfully, 100% correctly point out that people probably wouldn't join gangs (or at least there wouldn't be so many members) if there were better opportunities for youth growing up, better education, more hope for a better future and all that. But the people who are gang members now are 'write offs' and for all intents and purposes beyond redemption - all that matters is keeping them away from the public so they can't harm and intimidate. I guess it's sad that most of them never had a chance at life, but that reality cannot be altered.
Realistically, the patch policy probably won't change much because as others have rightly pointed out there is simply insufficient police resource - particularly in smaller towns - to be able to enforce it against larger groups of gang members. 1 cop can't do much against 10 gang members, particularly in some small town where backup could be a 30 min drive away.
However, speaking to a couple of family members who are cops - one of them very senior at the commissioned level - they like that it will make it easier to harass and disrupt individual gang members or small groups who are otherwise not committing any crime ... and who knows what you might find when you pull them over or search them.
So you're unlikely to see big gatherings broken up (although for events such as tangis it does mean, if the will and capacity is there, that every patched participant can have their collar felt) but it makes it easier to make life difficult for that gang member who decides to walk in an otherwise law-abiding manner through the shopping mall, or pop out to fill the car up. Because if they do so wearing a patch, they are a crime unto themselves. This won't "fix" that individual, but that's not the point as they are already beyond repair - it's just about keeping them away from decent people.
You dont have to look far for the solutions - NSW and Queensland.
Ban patches and implement non-association law's meaning gang members cannot be seen together in public. You need the resources though, otherwise it's hot air. Create dedicated anti-gang units. You don't get to ride around our cities disrupting and intimidating people in large groups because one of you was murdered.
We do need to tackle the issue at grass routes however, education and employment in regional NZ.
I've just come back from a week in Sydney, and you don't see patched gang members anywhere either walking about or in/on vehicles (and I wasn't just in the CBD area, spent time in both nice suburbs and more average ones for both work and catching up with some friends).
But, to your point, the place feels like it is crawling with cops. Apart from a big uptick in the number of homeless around the Sydney CBD since I last visited, it generally feels like a safer place to be out and about if only because there seem to be a lot more police both on foot and driving around. If I recall correctly, by comparison NZ is one of the most under-policed developed nations on earth.
So I agree completely - if we had both the political will and the resourcing we could "go to war" on gangs (at least from the perspective of them being able to intimidate the public via their presence)
So they wont be paying over the odds, anytime soon, for our highly prized logs, snapper and milk powder?
- NZ exports down the karzi.
Why are NZ media so inept (except Interest!!) at bringing this pivotal foreign news to the NZ people, on the Real Estate collapse of our largest trading partner???
I think I know why........OneWoof, GrannyH, NZME and associated hangers ons and leeches must be protected!
If they don't pour their money into property, where will it go? They keep beavering away, working and earning. If property prices fall, rents will get cheaper. Even more more money sloshing around. One could argue that unemployment could skyrocket. But unemployment terrifies the CCP so they'll bend over backwards to ensure it doesn't become a big problem. The city property markets behave quite differently to ours - so much so that comparisons are hard to make.
re ... "So its irreverent if the Chinese property ponzi drops massively?"
I didn't say that.
There is something of an oversupply of residential dwellings in many cities in China. That's a very different situation to cities in the western world.
Further, the ownership of residential property is quite different too. It could fall, and bounce back, and fall again, etc. without much impact to the rest of the world. The Chinese property market is quite insulated from western markets. Western property markets are far more intertwined.
If USA CRE goes belly up it will be caused by forces in the USA, and not China. (Although I don't doubt that people with a similar or lesser IQ to Trump will try and blame China for their woes.)
USA CRE crash is simply due to the return or normal interest rates (which the West cannot handle - at current debt levels) and the WFH revolution.
- Lots "empty", little "income" and "high debt" servicing. A cluster.
NZ has the second and third problem BIGTIME, to still work through and deal with.
- It is still to be seen if the first impacts here, with many industries under strain now. Will we see our own CRE crisis?- as businesses fold and vacate premises in big numbers?
Rich getting younger family members out to work in offshore owned companies. More and more trying to get cash out of China but it's increasingly difficult to extract cash (much like South Africa). Chinese wealth management products WMPs are not returning funds even after large value drops. For China this is there first major debt restructure excercise, they do not have the legal framework and many assets have been leveraged multiple times, its a true house of cards. I think their currency is going to plummet, but then US will cry manipulation.... look at hong Kong, once a centre of business in Asia, now Singapore the desired location.
This all being said, China still has strong leadership systems, at some point the politburo and wider CCP may lose faith in Xi's handling of the internal economic situation.
Talked to a Chinese mate. It's a bloodbath back on the homeland. The numbers we get don't reflect how big a hole they are in.
Universal issue: New School University race to the bottom
"Is it overtime or overwork? How to tell if your work hours are reasonable"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-26/overtime-overwork-burnout-what-a…
"According to OECD research, 12.5 per cent of Australians work what is termed "very long hours", defined as putting in more than 50 hours a week and placing us 34th out of 41 OECD member nations.
...
Among OECD countries that could be considered similar to Australia, only New Zealand (14 per cent) and Japan (15.7 per cent) — well known for its crippling office culture that drives some workers to suicide — has worse figures.
But today we start first in China. They released official data that showed foreign direct investment in January was down more than -11% from the same month a year ago. That is their biggest retreat since the GFC.
Thankfully, the need to sell the family silver at a future date is diminishing.
"Debt servicing is currently consuming most of Egypt's annual expenditures." Egypt prepping Gaza ethnic cleansing camps could be part of grand bailout bargain. Israel ally UAE announces $35 billion investment; US tool IMF preparing $10 billion+ bailout. https://middleeasteye.net/news/egypt-announces-massive-35-billion-deal-uae-develop-ras-el-hekma-north-coast Link
Wow! A non-bank economist lets rip. Friggin' nailing it! Well said, Gareth. Well said indeed.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350191709/whats-reserve-banks-mind-week
(Although he and I disagree about whether OCR cuts are warranted at this time. Or indeed last November!)
EU inflation expectations are essentially holding at 3.3% for the next twelve months. The ECB would have been disappointed at that, and the fact that the "last mile" is proving very sticky. However, it is not a problem that they have alone.
Why War Bonds Are Returning in Europe
Eurobonds are the Holy Grail for European integration. PM Kallas is telling you what the plan is. The EU’s Achilles’ heel is the euro itself and its lack of central taxing authority. Eurobonds, issued through the European Commission, of this type are another way of handing that authority to Brussels, bypassing member state central banks and legislatures.
In case you missed it: Global debt surged by >$15tn in 2023 reaching a new record high of $313tn. 55% of this rise originated from mature markets, mainly driven by US, France, & Germany. BUT global debt-to-GDP ratio saw a decline of ~2ppts to 330% in 2023, acc to IIF. This marked the third consecutive annual drop. Link
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