Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.
OCR ON HOLD, WITH DOVISH COMMENTS
The Reserve Bank has left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% and says risks to the inflation outlook are now 'more balanced' but there is a limit to the ability to 'tolerate upside inflation surprises'. The NZD fell sharply. The swap rates fell too, immediately following the announcement.
KIWISAVER BALANCES SWELL
In a record shift higher, KiwiSaver assets reached $107.5 bln at the end of December 2023, up +$6.7 bln or +17% in the year. This is the biggest proportional rise since 2021.
A SURGE TO CASH
In contrast to KiwiSaver, life insurance assets have hardly shifted in a year. Life insurers are holding much more cash in their portfolios, in fact they almost doubled their cash holdings to 31% of assets, far and away the most since this data series started. If you know the reason, please note it in the comment section below.
REACHED THEIR LIMIT?
The latest mortgage figures from the Reserve Bank suggest first home buyers might have reached their limit in terms of market share, while investors might be showing some signs of life.
PUBLIC JOBS HOLD UP LABOUR MARKET
Updated monthly employment data showed a solid expansion in January, even despite some questions about data consistency (over education sector hiring). In fact it is strong hiring in the public education and health sectors that are keeping this data rising. Gross earnings were up a full +$1 bln in the month compared to the same month a year ago. That is a +7.7% rise, and represents a solid jump in overall spending power. Of course some will be from an expanding workforce (+2.8%) but the rest is rising pay levels.
STICKY
In Australia, their monthly CPI indicator in Australia stood at 3.4% in the year to January, unchanged from the previous month and less than market forecasts of 3.6%. Still, the latest reading pointed to the lowest since November 2021.
SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates fell sharply (more than -10 bps) after the OCR decision. They continue to move around. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 5.71%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.18%. The China 10 year bond rate has dropped to 2.39% and up +1 bps. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps to 4.84%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.87% and up +3 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.29% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is now up to just under 4.69% and so that key inversion is now -40 bps and marginally less.
EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is up +0.3% in late trade today, rising after the OCR decision. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has also opened down -0.2%. Both Hong Kong is down -0.2% and Shanghai has opened up +0.3%. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session up +0.2% on the S&P500 index.
OIL RISES AGAIN
Oil prices are +US$1 higher than this time yesterday, now just on US$78.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now at just over US$82.50/bbl.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2032/oz and unchanged from this time yesterday.
NZD RETREATS SHARPLY
The dovishness of the OCR decision has hit the NZD (which might make imports more expensive if it holds and sets a new trend). The Kiwi dollar has has fallen nearly -½c to 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c too at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped a bit less to 56.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 70.3 today and down almost -50 bps.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
Bitcoin is still moving up. The price has risen again today, now at US$56,970 and almost a +0.9% gain from this time yesterday. Previously it has peaked at US$67,292 in November 2021. Volatility has faded to a moderate +/- 2.8% today.
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