A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, FHB affordability stabilises, RBNZ squares off against ComCom, cruel retail summer, swaps ease, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nothing here today.

FHB HOME LOAN AFFORDABILITY STABILISES
Flat house prices at the bottom of the market, a slight easing of mortgage interest rates and rising incomes is creating some breathing space for first home buyers.

REGULATOR vs REGULATOR
As anticipated, the RBNZ today unleashed its inevitable push-back after the Commerce Commission recommended a rethink of banks' regulatory capital rules.

'SUCCESSFUL 2023 CENSUS'
Approximately five million people will be represented in 2023 Census data – more than 99% of the population. Directly, Stats NZ received census form responses for approximately 4.4 million people. Interim coverage and response rates and the findings of an independent review of the 2023 Census were released by Stats NZ today.

A 'CRUEL SUMMER' FOR RETAILERS, EARLY WINTER
Westpac's Retail Pulse analysis shows that financial pressures, including higher mortgage rates, have been a particular drag on spending on discretionary items like furnishings and dining out. In most parts of the country, spending growth has fallen below the rate of population growth, with particular softness in Auckland and Wellington. Separately, the retail industry itself is bracing for a soft winter.

WHERE THE MONEY WENT
Perhaps this retail stress is being exacerbated by households prioritising home buying. The NZ Banking Association is pointing out that new home loan volumes rose nearly +30% in the July-December half year in 2024 compared to the first half of the year. That has created a lot more embedded repayment obligation that won't be available for discretionary retail spending.

TARGETING THE VULNERABLE
The Commerce Commission is warning consumers about the risks and increasing sophistication of pyramid schemes, following the conviction of the lead New Zealand promoter of one of the biggest pyramid schemes the Commission has seen promoted here. The pyramid scheme in question, ‘Lion’s Share’, was responsible for approximately 150,000 participants worldwide losing a total of almost $17 mln. Shelly Cullen promoted a global cryptocurrency-based scheme to Māori and Pasifika communities in during 2020 and 2021. 83% of those involved lost money.

GOOD GAINS
In Japan, their factory PMI made big gains in April, meaning the sector is now stabilised and no longer contracting. Their services PMI rose at a good rate too, expanding faster. Both are now at 11 month highs.

BEST EXPANSION IN TWO YEARS
In Australia, their 'flash' PMI rose at a good clip too, expanding for a third consecutive month and at the quickest pace since April 2022. Although most of the rise was from the services sector, like Japan, their factory sector improved sharply too, to a 'stable' level.

SWAP RATES STOP RISING
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be a little lower today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 5.64%, a level it has hovered around for more than 45 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.34%. The China 10 year bond rate has dipped to 2.25% and another new all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps to 4.94% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.88% and -2 bps lower. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps to 4.62%. Their 2yr is soft at 4.97%, so the curve is now -35 bps and little-changed.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late Tuesday trade. However the ASX200 is up +0.4%. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday session up +0.3%. Hong Kong is up +1.5% but Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore has opened up +1.3%. Wall Street ended its Monday session up +0.9% on the S&P500 despite the court case a few blocks away.

OIL STOPS RETREATING
The recent fall in oil prices seems to have ended and they have risen +50 USc to just US$82/bbl in the US, to US$86.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$65 from this time yesterday, now at US$2375/oz. Most of that retreat happened last night, but it is still slipping slightly today.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar has held since this time yesterday, still at 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down slightly at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 55.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 69.1.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price has risen today from this time yesterday, now at US$66,846 and up 3.2% since then. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest +/-1.9%.

NOTICE
Thursday, April 25 is ANZAC Day in New Zealand, a public holiday. We will not be publishing that day, but will be back to normal on Friday.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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