What happened Wednesday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; jobless rate ticks up, financial stress still very low; housing market languishes, LGFA offers popular, swaps stable, NZD weaker, & more

1st May 24, 4:00pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Unity Money has launched a FHB 'special of 6.55% as a fixed one year rate.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Unity Money trimmed its Everyday Saver, and Online Saver rates today.

LABOUR MARKET IN TRANSITION
The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% s.a. in the March quarter (4.6% actual) from 4%, just exceeding the Reserve Bank’s s.a. expectations. That means there were actually 143,500 people jobless in March, up +33,700 from the same point a year earlier. Weekly wages ("gross earnings") rose to $3.1 bln in the quarter, a rise of +9.5% due in part to a +4.0% rise in total house worked across the whole labour force, and wage rate increases averaging +5.8%. (Public sector up +7.7%, private sector up +5.1%.) (The employed workforce only rose by +35,400 from a year ago and overtime worked fell notably too.)

MORE STRESS, BUT STILL AT VERY LOW LEVELS
In today's Financial Stability Report from the RBNZ, they noted that banks expect 0.7% of home loans to be in arrears by end of 2024. Financial stress is building from very low levels, but there is particular pressure on the commercial property sector. They also said nearly half of home loans have now been reset to averaging nearly 6% now, and the wave of 'rate shock' will start to retreat from here.

MARKET LANGUISHING
The housing market could be headed for a difficult winter as the pile of unsold stock keeps growing. Vendors with unsold properties will face some difficult decisions heading into winter. That is the out-take from the latest Realestate.co.nz Property Report. When the property portals get worried, you know the trend is well embedded.

NO SURPRISES
Noiser EVs and hybrids are destined for New Zealand with the adoption of the Acoustic Vehicle Alerting Systems (AVAS).

HIGH DEMAND, FIRM YIELDS
The LGFA raised $190 mln in four separate maturities, getting 64 bids worth $665 mln. Only 15 were successful. Yields today ranged from 5.16% to 5.67%.

RESHUFFLE, AND PENNO EXITS
Synlait is making board-level changes. Co-founder John Penno is out.

THE BITE IS ON
The Financial Services Council’s latest Financial Resilience Index tracker shows how changing economic conditions are biting. he number of New Zealanders worrying about money either daily, weekly, or monthly is the highest since 2020 at 70%. Most are concerned about inflation (89.6%) and interest rates (75.6%). Confidence in job security has started to fall at 85%, down from a high of 89% in 2023. More respondents have personal debt than reported last year (up 6%), and more said they had one month or less of savings to maintain their current lifestyle should they lose their job. For renters, close to 60% of respondents said meeting their living expenses is currently somewhat or very difficult. A fifth of all retired respondents said they only have enough savings to maintain their current lifestyle for less than a year.

60% MORE
We may have a methane problem from livestock, but Australia has a very much larger one. Methane discharges from coal mining may be 60% higher than their Government has estimated and put in as the basis of international agreements. It is hard to see them getting away with the "short-lived" label for coal mine emissions.

SWAP RATES STEADY
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today from yesterday. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.64%, a level it has hovered around for more than 60 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from yesterday, now at 4.52%. The China 10 year bond rate has eased -3 bps to 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp to 4.96% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.90% and down -3 bps from yesterday. (At the end of March it was at 4.59%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +6 bps from yesterday at 4.67%. Their 2yr is now at 5.03%, so the curve is still -36 bps inverted.

EQUITIES WEAK
The NZX50 is is down -0.9% in late trade today. The ASX200 is down -1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday trade down -0.6%. Hong Kong has opened little-changed today. Shanghai and Singapore aren't trading for their May Day holiday. Wall Street closed its Tuesday session with the S&P500 down -1.6%. And that means it had a net -4.0% April retreat.

OIL SOFTER AGAIN
The oil price is soft again today from this time yesterday, down more than -US$1.50 at just under US$81/bbl in the US, while also to just on US$85.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$56 from yesterday, now at US$2287/oz.

NZD RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar has fallen -¾c over the past 24 hours but most of it last night, now at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are a bit softer at 91 AUc. Against the euro we are down -½c at 55.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.8, down nearly -50 bps.

BITCOIN RETREATS BELOW US$60,000
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$59,771 and down -5.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at +/-3.7%.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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108 Comments

by ChrisOfNoFame | 1st May 24, 4:19pm 1714537171

"They also said nearly half of home loans have now been reset to averaging nearly 6% now, and the wave of 'rate shock' will start to retreat from here."

Superb choice of words there, David. Well said indeed.

(Most people really don't understand how inflation is made worse by central bank action.)

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 4:59pm 1714539547

The US probably have it right with their long fixed terms. Preventing people taking on new debt (new money) with high interest rates seems like a good idea, but smashing people with existing debt maybe not so great.

by Jonny.Foe | 1st May 24, 5:35pm 1714541754

But how would we tame inflation if we can't flick a switch and make a few hundred thousand households much poorer?

by K.W. | 1st May 24, 7:58pm 1714550339

You invent a central bank digital currency. That's exactly what a CBDC is designed to do.

by IT GUY | 1st May 24, 5:49pm 1714542567

So right now Jimbo, if you had to sell your house in the great US of A, what finance rate do you think the buyer would be able to lock in for 30 years ?

Current mortgage and refinance interest rates

ProductInterest RateAPR

30-Year Fixed Rate 7.34%7.39%

20-Year Fixed Rate 7.24%7.29%

15-Year Fixed Rate 6.86%6.93%

10-Year Fixed Rate 6.80%6.88%

so those locked into 3% for the next 30 years are probably not your buyer.....

how much would you have to drop your price right now to get a sale????

by ChrisOfNoFame | 1st May 24, 9:09pm 1714554559

(What's with all the line spaces? IT GUY's should know better.)

Most 'mericans wouldn't sell. They'd stay put. If they had to move, they'd move and rent the property out. Or if they sold, they'd be buying and selling in the same market.

Your point, without a recession in 'Merica is moot. If they enter a recession then they're in the same boat as us.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 9:12pm 1714554758

If they had to move, they'd move and rent the property out. Or if they sold, they'd be buying and selling in the same market.

But when they bought the new house, they can't afford it at the new interest rate.

So it's more your former assertion, theyre staying put.

by Officebound | 1st May 24, 5:44pm 1714542267

Yea, good call Chris, Erdigan got it right huh?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 1st May 24, 9:10pm 1714554657

Sorry, The reference escapes me ...

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 4:23pm 1714537387

The bitcoin price has fallen to US$59,771 and down -5.9% from this time yesterday

Lock in those big halvening gains boys

Gotta catch em' all

by lonewolfnz | 1st May 24, 4:25pm 1714537509

Reminder that I sold most of mine at 70k.

That said, there has never been good price action right after the halvening. Takes at least 6 months.

by BigOldWeapon | 1st May 24, 4:44pm 1714538665

Indeed. The 2020 halving was in May. Previous ATH wasn't exceeded until Dec 2020. All time high of that cycle wasn't reached until October 2021 - a full 19 months after the halving.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 5:50pm 1714542656

Or, maybe there was no relationship at all, and the high came from some other externality

by Baywatch | 1st May 24, 4:25pm 1714537510

Yup and then go back for more...

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 4:33pm 1714538036

Lock in those big halvening gains boys

Trading rat poison is for clowns and pretenders.

by Baywatch | 1st May 24, 4:40pm 1714538406

Just BTC or does that apply to gold and shares as well?

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 4:52pm 1714539139

Just BTC or does that apply to gold and shares as well?

Depends. If you're a professional trader, shares and gold are better suited to TA than rat poison or crypto. Case in point is the celebrity trader Gareth Soloway who's been shorting ratty from USD30K. Most of the pretenders who have bet on Gareth's calls would have been better off doing nothing or stacking sats like an OG.

Regardless, I like Gareth and have no regrets if he's right on his recent calls that we could pull back to USD30K.

by Baywatch | 1st May 24, 5:05pm 1714539949

I distrust men with top knots..

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 5:14pm 1714540470

"celebrity trader" - yikes. Have they got reality TV shows yet like "Bitcoin Brother" or something?

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 5:37pm 1714541847

Don't get confused. Gareth is a trader first and foremost. And not just BTC. He just has a high social media presence.

It's not like Kim Kardashian or Dame Jacinda Kate Laurell Ardern GNZM giggling in front of a computer pushing buttons to buy/sell crypto and being filmed doing so for a TV show.

by Baywatch | 1st May 24, 5:41pm 1714542078

You never miss a chance to mention your girl crush? Gareth used to be a UPS delivery man.

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 5:53pm 1714542780

Two celebs that are top-of-mind in Nu Zillun

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 5:46pm 1714542413

Trading rat poison is for clowns and pretenders

Lonewolf seems to be a fairly astute trader.

Sounds way more profitable than being a true believer.

by mfd | 1st May 24, 5:53pm 1714542798

Terrible for his street cred with the nerds and incels, though.

by powerdownkiwi | 1st May 24, 5:56pm 1714542967

He was playing in a zero sum game, which does nothing constructive.

Worse, it was a ponzi.

Astute?

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 6:05pm 1714543539

Spotting a trend and capitalizing from it requires a decent level of intuition.

Whether anything constructive was done, is fairly subjective.

by Frank. | 1st May 24, 6:56pm 1714546578

I wrote a software program to do my day trading. It predominantly adheres to the KISS principle and analyses the candlesticks. A separate program does racehorse picks using an 8 step criteria analysis. I have found the assistance of the programs outstanding due to my day drinking.

by IT GUY | 1st May 24, 7:42pm 1714549352

take a look at https://www.statschat.org.nz/  the tab opening line bets for sports betting are very close to the statistical modelling

I disagree with statschat home / away adjustments , and many years, this included, its a bit of a lottery but take a look

by Frank. | 1st May 24, 8:53pm 1714553595

Nice one. Weekend project sorted.

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 5:59pm 1714543175

Just because 5% of traders make money doesn't mean the other 95% can by following their method. That's not how trading works. You're be better off giving all your loot to Wolfie, let him do his / her thing and pay him / her a fee.

As for the true believers, there is no point for them to trade as the return on effort < return on investment from not trading.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 6:09pm 1714543740

Most of it's about reading a market and capitalizing from it.

Many of the true believer views on what's going to drive value, don't appear to get realized. Probably more because that's about following headlines than being able to accurately gauge a value opportunity.

Either way, if you cashed out your position today, and the money and time expended hasn't made you minimum wage, you should just make regular contributions to some sort of active fund/ETF.

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 6:17pm 1714544263

Incorrect. True believers are more likely to be long-term holders of ratty. If they believe the value is greater than fiat, then the value has been realized.

Either way, if you cashed out your position today, and the money and time expended hasn't made you minimum wage, you should just make regular contributions to some sort of active fund/ETF.

Agree. Most people should just make a small allocation - approx 1% - to their portfolio through an ETF. Suspect most people don't even have an allocation to gold or do not know they have any exposure to gold.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 6:26pm 1714544805

Incorrect. True believers are more likely to be long-term holders of ratty. If they believe the value is greater than fiat, then the value has been realized.

Hmmm, so it's less about making some sort of tangible financial gain, and more about a subjective position?

So like, if I invested in one of the now failed vegan faux-meat companies that were hot a couple years back, didn't make any realized profit in raw monetary terms, but highly value the vegan cause, I have realised value?

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 6:38pm 1714545508

Hmmm, so it's less about making some sort of tangible financial gain, and more about a subjective position?

Kinda correct. The true believer would unlikely be concerned that the fiat value of BTC is lower today than y'day.

And it's an objective position because the nominal amount of BTC hasn't change.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 7:15pm 1714547723

So it's just about owning some, and the financial reality is irrelevant?

So it is more about collecting, and less about financial investing, in the purest sense of the term.

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 7:31pm 1714548704

So it's just about owning some, and the financial reality is irrelevant?

The financial reality is relevant. As I explained using 'value is greater y'day cf today.'

If you have high time preference, the fiat value is more important now.

If you have low time preference, the fiat value is less important.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 7:42pm 1714549367

Yeah but it has to be realised at some point. If you're into something for years, and your overall position hasn't really moved the needle that much, what you're doing is more of an aspiration than sound financial endeavour.

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 9:04pm 1714554298

Fair point. But if you consider that BTC has outperformed any other asset class since its inception (annualized return rate of 147.5%), then if you haven't 'moved the needle', then you probably need to think about what you're doing and how you're doing it.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 8:52pm 1714553525

Which would be fine, if people had a time machine.

But if you've been collecting regularly for say, 5 years and your total return (i.e. the fiat amount you've invested vs what you'd liquidate your holding for today) is only measured in a double digit gain, things are a lot greyer.

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 9:15pm 1714554903

Now you're starting to get it. Let's put that that to the test -- take the past 5 years from today and compare lump sum vs allocating monthly and see what kind of ROI we get.

Allocating monthly: 378.84%

Lumpsum: 753.12%

So there's a few things we can learn here.

-- Using even a conservative approach, you will have far exceeded 10-99%

-- Using a balls and all approach, you should be chuffed with yourself.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 9:21pm 1714555266

And this is what you've done, made 4-7x on the total amount of money you've invested? I.e, put in 50k, can walk away with 150k-300k net?

Well played then.

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 9:35pm 1714556158

Yes. But depending on your strategy, easy to have added 7-14x to that in the past 5 years (ETH 20-40x). Definitely for the mathematically minded and patient.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 9:49pm 1714556955

But that's only been in the last 6 months or so, right? I.e., for the 3 years prior, you hadn't even doubled up?

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 10:22pm 1714558920

But that's only been in the last 6 months or so, right? I.e., for the 3 years prior, you hadn't even doubled up?

You could have had 2xers on ETH in the past 3 yrs. Not 20x. That's 2019-2020. Likewise, no 10x opportunities in rat poison in past 3 years. 2020.

by Pa1nter | 2nd May 24, 5:01am 1714582905

You could also put your money somewhere it makes decent returns more than 10% of the time you own it.

If what I did financially only paid off 6 months in 5 years, I wouldn't get out of bed.

by lonewolfnz | 1st May 24, 8:22pm 1714551732

I'm afraid I'm a terrible trader. Made most of my gains from defi-farming.

I sold mainly because of the 1 April 39% trustee tax rate (thank the IRD!)

That said, I did nibble at a bit of BTC just now. I have a bit more waiting at 52k.

Off to invest in the Indian and Argentinian stock markets tonight though.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 8:53pm 1714553611

You got some stones bro. Not that those aren't two economies that have potential upside, but their stock markets are a bit more wild west.

by JamesM | 1st May 24, 4:31pm 1714537872

Little snapshot of commercial property today. Currently working with a 300+ person company in Auckland looking at where to locate their HO.

This is a large requirement in NZ (approx 3,000sqm). There are (on paper) more than 20 options. That's 3x more options than would have been available 2 years ago.

In spite of this uptick in available space the main real estate agencies are reporting only a minimal increase in the vacancy rate and some landlords are continuing to increase their asking rents.

Will be fascinated to see where this deal goes.

by KH | 1st May 24, 4:59pm 1714539583

Commercial landlording is weird. They genuinely don't see the connection between their empty building and their insistence on rent always going up.

by JamesM | 1st May 24, 5:30pm 1714541441

I agree KH there is constant tension as to the importance of receiving income vs doing a market deal which might devalue their property.

Id speculate that 50% of the transactions we are involved in have incentives that are not disclosed to Valuers/bankers etc

by Averageman | 1st May 24, 8:21pm 1714551707

Yep. Got offered a deal last year with 50% cash back to protect the number on the lease and value. Similar stuff happened in the run up to 1987.

#fraud.

by IT GUY | 1st May 24, 7:47pm 1714549667

b low and h ookers and game fishing each summer.... nah not in NZ

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 4:43pm 1714538616

Nikkei reports that over 30% of Japan’s Generation Z is investing over 20% of their income. Quite impressive considering their woes.

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB235N20T20C24A4000000/?n_cid=SNST…

by Audaxes | 1st May 24, 5:41pm 1714542099

The Financial Services Council’s latest Financial Resilience Index tracker shows how changing economic conditions are biting. he number of New Zealanders worrying about money either daily, weekly, or monthly is the highest since 2020 at 70%. Most are concerned about inflation (89.6%) and interest rates (75.6%).

RBNZ says:

High inflation and restrictive monetary policy have affected households and businesses through several channels. While the short term focus remains on the financial stress of higher debt-servicing costs on households and businesses, another impact has been the reduction in demand for credit across sectors. This deleveraging, along with nominal income growth, means that the aggregate debt levels of households and businesses have declined

as a share of GDP (figure 1.3). A positive consequence of this deleveraging is that it will help to support the resilience of households and businesses going forward. Page 6 of 45 pdf

by Audaxes | 1st May 24, 5:46pm 1714542382

It's not like US banks are actually buying the soft landing, either, re-risking their balance sheets. On the contrary, they're still cutting bank on CnI lending (huge cyclical clue) and even consumer loans in recent weeks. https://youtu.be/i3v1t292JeU Link

by Audaxes | 1st May 24, 6:08pm 1714543689

Chinese regulators warn against Silicon Valley Bank-style meltdown

by Audaxes | 1st May 24, 6:19pm 1714544360

A positive consequence of this deleveraging is that it will help to support the resilience of households and businesses going forward

I guess the Treasury LSAP bond repurchase programme and the Crown Indemnity for LSAP Programme achieves a similar outcome for the RBNZ going forward.

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 5:51pm 1714542663

Robert MacCulloch lets rip on the propaganda surrounding Covid and economic factors. Can't imagine Robert is flavor of the month at UoA. His narrative always seems credible to me.

Throughout the pandemic, the new Vice-Chancellor-of-Otago-University-on-$629,000 per annum-Can-you-believe-it-and-Former-Finance-Minister Grant Robertson repeated the mantra over & over that he saved "lives and livelihoods".

As we update how this claim is faring over the course of time, the facts are increasingly speaking differently. NZ now ranks as one of the slowest growing economies in the world, unemployment is rising and inflation has been galloping away for years now, over half of which is home-grown - not from external factors. The country is bogged down in a debt spiral due to on-going structural deficits which have led the new Coalition to cut back on spending, threatening the development of infrastructure, as well as the strength of our health and education systems.

https://www.bassettbrashandhide.com/post/robert-macculloch-beware-polit…

by HouseMouse | 1st May 24, 6:06pm 1714543589

I said to colleagues at the water cooler in 2020 that we would eventually pay big time for our covid approach. They were incredulous

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 6:12pm 1714543967

I'm not sure you can make a 1:1 correlation between NZ's current economic conditions and our specific COVID response

- we have an austere government because we just had a fairly spendy government that offered poor returns

- relative to other countries, for the first year or two we were more "open for business" than other places

- we were always going to run a trade deficit, with a country who's export income is dependent on people moving around, and who's consumption requirements are largely imported (and our offshore manufacturing suppliers had their own COVID related supply inflation)

by HouseMouse | 1st May 24, 6:24pm 1714544648

And I didn’t make a 1:1 correlation. Did I?

And btw, when I talk about the ‘covid response’ I am not just talking about the government.

The RBNZ also looms big in my thinking.

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 7:14pm 1714547666

Easy to criticise in hindsight HM. I vividly remember the vast majority of commentators here (not sure if you were one) saying the world was effectively over, things would never be the same, the property market was going to crash, unemployment going to the moon, etc when covid struck. I got laughed at with my slightly more positive outlook.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 7:19pm 1714547980

I planned for somewhere in between the end of the world and business as usual. I thought things would be way worse by now, but the prolonged period of relative economic continuity has allowed for a more decent buffer.

by HouseMouse | 1st May 24, 7:27pm 1714548429

Sure. And I didn’t say the initial response was not justified. They got the first 4-5 months pretty much right.

by RickStrauss | 2nd May 24, 7:08am 1714590530

It was interesting too that both parties were in favour of the approach. None would've pushed very hard against the RBNZ stimulus of property given their personal benefit from it.

The underlying problem isn't just the last couple of years, but the last couple of decades.

We are performing poorly because we've been rewarding the value takers not the value makers. We've encouraged all money into lazy speculation on exisiting housing, rather than rewarding people who actually add value to the economy. Brash and Hide included in that.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 7:20pm 1714548016

But you didn't lock in that super low 2020 RBNZ rate fueled rate for as long as possible?

COVID was always going to be a financial shit show, irrespective of what the central authorities did. We can argue they shouldn't have cut x amount for as long, nor raise rates as high, but they're by and large reactionary agents.

by HouseMouse | 1st May 24, 7:25pm 1714548339

What’s the relevance of your first point?

btw, I didn’t talk only of economic effects.

Something many people seem oblivious to is the impact of the lonnnnnnng lockdowns on mental health, especially on young people.

I have been lecturing nearly 10 years. I had taught about 250-300 students pre-covid, and a similar amount since covid. So I think it’s a pretty decent sample size in which to have a good gauge.

Seeing a lot more anxiety, depression and social withdrawal amongst the students. Of course I can’t say for sure how much of that is down to effects of the lockdowns. But I am fairly confident it’s significant

Remembering that universities had much reduced contact time beyond the formal lockdowns

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 7:39pm 1714549153

What’s the relevance of your first point?

Saying "things are going to be bad" in 2020 is almost self evident. It's not really much to add to a prediction CV. Connecting the dots and making some decisions based on what you think is likely to happen, is something more solid to hang your hat on.

We had 7 teen suicides over the course of 18 months in a fairly small community. That overlapped lockdowns either side.

So, I would agree there's definite issues with youth mental health (overall societal mental health in general actually), but I would say that was a trajectory independent of COVID - I have a partner who does social work in tertiary institutions.

How we have structured our society and culture is not conducive to overall human mental wellbeing. I think it'll be even worse in 5-10 years, long after COVID and lockdowns remains something in most people's consciousness.

by HouseMouse | 1st May 24, 7:47pm 1714549659

in 2020 very few were predicting high inflation was on its way, indeed the RBNZ readied for a negative OCR

sure in hindsight (which is easy) it would have been great if I locked in at 2.99

by IT GUY | 1st May 24, 8:02pm 1714550543

I know a few smart cookies that where screaming inflation was coming all during 2021, Orr got back from jacksons hole and was crapping himself he had overdone it, hence we where first to move

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 8:08pm 1714550935

Maybe smart, maybe lucky. I’ve heard so many screams that have not eventuated that the ones that have seem meaningless now. If this stuff was predictable a computer could predict it, and if a computer predicted it we would all behave differently and it wouldn’t happen.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 8:09pm 1714550963

in 2020 very few were predicting high inflation was on its way, indeed the RBNZ readied for a negative OCR

That's because central banks only focus on the demand side.

I could see in the days before lockdown that manufacturing and supply was going to get very expensive, both in my own businesses, and ones I service/supply.

Regardless, under 3% for money in NZ should be viewed as somewhat of a gift.

by gnx | 1st May 24, 8:15pm 1714551323

except it's not a gift....it has to be paid back

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 8:25pm 1714551904

If you're going to have debt (or already had some), interest lower than inflation is a gift.

by HouseMouse | 1st May 24, 7:49pm 1714549777

Making solid decisions based on what might happen - how about selling my share portfolio at peak?

by K.W. | 1st May 24, 8:12pm 1714551137

I know several primary school teachers, and they are saying that they've never had so many kids in their class with speech, developmental, social and behavioural issues. These are the "Covid Babies", the ones who spent the first years of their life being around masked adults, kept at home, not going to daycare or interacting with other children. One teacher said it is very similar to the years after the Christchurch earthquake when the "Earthquake Babies" started school.

by agnostium | 1st May 24, 8:41pm 1714552870

"Seeing a lot more anxiety, depression and social withdrawal amongst the students. Of course I can’t say for sure how much of that is down to effects of the lockdowns. But I am fairly confident it’s significant"

Hey HM,

this trend started way before Covid. In the US they can track it back almost 10 years I think. Have a listen to this podcast if you're interest in youth happiness and some of the hypotheses of why the anglo-speaking world (US, Canada, NZ and Australia in particular) are trending down. It's a really informative listen from the people who compile the world happiness report.

https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/the-happiness-lab-with-dr-laurie-santos…

by RickStrauss | 2nd May 24, 7:11am 1714590677

Can't have helped having older generations absolutely fleecing them via property and education policy while advertising to them heavily via Persuasive Psychology tech models, all while insisting nothing need change in overuse of resources and pollution of the world they're growing up in.

by vman | 1st May 24, 6:09pm 1714543763

I stopped reading once I saw the names Brash & Hide on the rabbit hutch door...

by vman | 1st May 24, 6:18pm 1714544285

Hide was criticised in November 2009 for taking his girlfriend Louise Crome on a tax-payer funded private holiday to Hawaii and on a tax-payer funded trip to London, Canada and the United States. He repaid the money for the Hawaii trip.^[23]^[24] These allegations were particularly notable given Hide's history as a self-styled parliamentary perk-buster, particularly in Opposition.

The New Zealand Productivity Commission Act, passed in December 2010, created the commission as an independent Crown entity. It was established as a condition of the ACT Party supporting the National Party government on confidence and supply,

English and ACT leader Rodney Hide appointed Murray Sherwin as the Commission's first chair.

In December 2023, the new National-led coalition government announced that it would dissolve the Productivity Commission.^[5] On 30 January 2024, the Minister for Regulation David Seymour introduced urgent legislation to disestablish the Commission. Seymour stated that funding previously allocated to the Commission would be redirected to the new Ministry for Regulation, which would be tasked with assessing the quality of existing and new regulation.^[7]

by J.C. | 1st May 24, 6:21pm 1714544469

The writer is Robert MacCulloch. Be brave. The words won't bite you.

by Jonny.Foe | 1st May 24, 6:03pm 1714543413

It's incredible isn't it? We're still getting commentary like 'ooh, labour market is a bit shaky, RBNZ will be pleased... but we're not there yet on inflay-shun, probably nothing to worry about'.

Where is the perspective here - or maybe even just a cursory reference to some basic macro theory?

Firstly, unemployment is a seriously lagging indicator - it tells you what was happening at least 6 -12 months ago. The trajectory we are on is locked in for the next 6 - 12 months at least - probably longer given that there is no sign of any appetite to do anything to prevent the collapse.

Secondly, macro analysis of every major economic disaster teaches us that the thing to watch for is the pace of change in key indicators - whether things are accelerating. I'll come back to that.

Thirdly, rising unemployment means that there are already negative feedback loops in place - for example, falling demand and job losses are now feeding off each other (and will quickly force Govt spending into lots of welfare spending).

So, given the above, what is the data telling us? Friends, it is terrible.

The number of unemployed people has jumped by about 34,000 in 12 months. That's more than through the 2020 COVID lockdown period. In fact we have only seen bigger climbs twice before in modern times - in 1991 and 2009. Now, were they good years? Did things get better quickly?

But, we have more people now, right, of course the numbers have gone up by more. Sorry, same again, a 31% increase in unemployed folk in a single year has only been surpassed three times (1988, 1991, 2009).

Now, remarkably RBNZ and Treasury believe that they can let this climb continue and then miraculously pull us out of the tailspin around the end of 2024. Are they nuts? What is going to change? Are Govt going to increase spending? When RBNZ drop rates and stand back waiting for the housing ponzi to pull us out of the recession, will we see people pulling down billions of bank credit like 1992 (when private debt levels were 75% of GDP rather than current 140%)?

by HouseMouse | 1st May 24, 6:34pm 1714545282

Brilliant as usual. You are one of the big reasons I come here.

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 7:29pm 1714548560

Easy to criticise, but has Jfoe ever offered a decent alternative to the current scenario? If the OCR is not the correct lever then what is? Prayers?

by Let me be Frank | 1st May 24, 7:36pm 1714549014

Tax

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 7:44pm 1714549478

Depends if you think the OCR is to stop people spending or to stop people borrowing. I think the main aim is the latter, borrowing adds new money to the economy. And so many other issues, for example if tax is increased the government may spend more, and if our cash rate was still at 0.5% while the US is at 5.5%, what would our currency be worth?

by Let me be Frank | 1st May 24, 7:57pm 1714550243

Depends if you think adjusting the OCR impacts either spending or borrowing .....I'd suggest that the OCR rate is incidental to both. There are more influential factors to both of those actions.

by RickStrauss | 2nd May 24, 7:15am 1714590921

True...

...seems like an importune time to focus on austerity for most and tax cuts for property speculators.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 7:44pm 1714549467

Time, at a more sensible level.

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 7:48pm 1714549680

Will be interesting how much time Turkey needs

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 8:10pm 1714551028

Hah, they started raising rates, and inflation got worse.

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 8:16pm 1714551360

Like putting on a condom after getting HIV.

by Jonny.Foe | 1st May 24, 8:18pm 1714551504

RBNZ should *not* have floored interest rates in 2020 or messed about with any of that funding for lending crap etc. Govt had the recovery absolutely covered. Fiscal only was the correct response.
The countries that quickly got on top of inflation (Spain, Denmark, Switzerland, etc) were not afraid to stop imported price shocks (mostly oil & gas) from getting into their economy and pushing up the prices of other things. They did this the old-fashioned way - price caps, subsidies etc - with a focus on the prices that are known to be contagious (energy, rent, wages).
You can see the imported price shock moving through our price structure in this graph. See how fuel costs got in first, then imported food - look how wages, rent etc follow suit (rent <> wages is a classic feedback loop). In NZ, we also added insurance, local govt rates, and tobacco taxes to the mix for giggles. Govt should have capped local govt rates and offered temporary funding. They also pulled the fuel and public transport subsidies too soon.
You can also see in that graph that interest rate hikes added to business and household costs - putting upwards pressure on wages, which lagged 3 - 6 months behind the cost of living tidal shockwave. RBNZ should have gradually dropped rates before Christmas and used DTI / LTV etc to stop the housing ponzi kicking off. They are now going to have to drop sharply and that spells trouble.
Now, I don't believe that excess demand was a driver of higher prices, but if that was the diagnosis, then a temporary higher income tax would have been a more equitable and appropriate response.
Finally, we should not be panicing when the whole world is going through a price level adjustment - when that happens we should manage the transition and be clear with the public and businesses about that - not pretend that a tiny little island in the pacific can stop the tidal wave... 'oh, if we just make everyone unemployed then we can reduce domestic prices enough to counter global inflation'. Please.

Now if we had done all of the abovew, would we have avoided the disaster we are in now? Some of it, yes. We would have still had to increase rates a bit, perhaps, but our economy would have transitioned much more smoothly through the last couple of years.

by agnostium | 1st May 24, 8:45pm 1714553159

How do you think the current coalition is doing Jfoe? Great, good, neutral, bad, terrible?

by Jonny.Foe | 1st May 24, 10:06pm 1714557972

One out of ten. But I gave the last lot the same score.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 1st May 24, 10:19pm 1714558774

LOL. A tad unfair. I'd give the last lot 4/10, the current lot 3/10 and the RBNZ minus 10 out of 10 for their indolence since 2010.

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 9:10pm 1714554636

1) Agree, but easy in hindsight

2) Muldoon tried and failed. We are a small island vulnerable to inflation

3) Fuel is always fluctuating, plenty of times it has not led to this kind of inflation

4) Agree but interest rates should be a one off, it shouldn’t go on forever

5) I think excess demand was a massive factor. People seem to forget how hard it was to get labour or find a builder etc. if people didn’t adjust their price accordingly they were very stupid.

6) If we don’t keep up with the US our currency would be decimated.

by Jonny.Foe | 1st May 24, 10:13pm 1714558439

I was only working the basics out in 2020/21 but there were knowledgeable people making this point back then (Raf Manji from memory).
Price controls and caps have evolved a lot since Muldoon. Dismissing this option is like saying computer games are crap because you played frogger 40 years ago and it was boring.
Fuel went nuts - our weighted import costs jumped 27% in a year! It was clearly a shock that need smoothing. We just let it hit the economy and spread quickly to other prices. Lots of countries did a lot better.
Maybe.
Demand was a factor in construction - I completely agree. You could see this pre-covid actually. You can also see high demand lead to some excess profits in a few key industries (wholesale, retail). But the impact of this on CPI was limited. We import $100bn (around a third of consumption) so a 27% increase in import prices = approx 9% inflation (subsidies suppressed this figure)
This is the key issue - but surely better to adjust slowly than take a big hit all at once and get the speculators circling?

by Pa1nter | 2nd May 24, 5:09am 1714583354

5) I think excess demand was a massive factor. People seem to forget how hard it was to get labour or find a builder etc

Much of that was still supply related though.

Due to COVID operating environments, construction time-frames tripled. Even if demand remained static, straight away you have 1/3 the labour supply. And maybe a bit less again, considering infected people weren't at work at all.

by HouseMouse | 1st May 24, 6:36pm 1714545406

When do you see ‘Peak DGM’? Late ‘24/ early ‘25?

by JimboJones | 1st May 24, 7:39pm 1714549167

The unemployment rate has gone from something like 3.3% to 4.3% in 2 years and that’s the third worst change ever? I feel like I’ve seen far worse in my lifetime, that seems almost normal over any 2 year period.

by Let me be Frank | 1st May 24, 7:36pm 1714548965

As have many of us....however none of us have seen rising unemployment with this level of private debt.

by Jonny.Foe | 1st May 24, 8:22pm 1714551749

The unemployment rate is very misleading. In 2017/18, MSD changed their guidance on jobseekers and got their WINZ offices to push jobseekers 'work ready benefit' at people who were prepared to take on short-term precarious work. The unemployment rate dropped 100pts within 6 months. Our unemployment rate is low now due to the uberisation of the economy. Look at the underutilisation numbers instead. They're booming.

by K.W. | 1st May 24, 8:21pm 1714551661

Well hopefully the Govt will slam the immigration door shut, that would be a good start. Australia will soak up a lot of the newly unemployed skilled workers - seeing as they are 230,000 workers short for implementing their $230B infrastructure pipeline. Unskilled workers will not be so lucky, but now that the welfare system pays $1300 a week (for a family of 4) they will probably find that life on the benefit isnt that bad. Getting them off a benefit and back into work will be the hard part.

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 8:26pm 1714552015

They're not just short workers, companies in their construction sector are dropping like flies.

by Grattaway | 1st May 24, 8:55pm 1714553752

quite possible we will never be there on inflation unless imports start declining in cost as that has been the reality for the last 15 + years

Mr Orr should have been, and still should be, fired - he is failing to do his job and NZ is getting screwed over by his incompetence.

I am bloody glad I am at the end of my business life not the beginning because good people will be scarred for life due to his incompetence -and many will leave never to return

by Pa1nter | 1st May 24, 10:06pm 1714557995

We've been 15 years without a recession. Now, it might be that central banks now have abilities that prevent a recession no matter what, but it also could be that central banks have managed to juice an economy for a long time, so as to defer recession.

Recessions are sucky for business. It's easy to grow and have continuity and confidence when the general public/your customer base are flush with cash and confident.

But I think this was always going to occur at some point.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 1st May 24, 9:35pm 1714556100

Concur.

One wonders if the RBNZ will come out with "It's all going to plan" nonsense come next MPS. They're friggin' ghouls - so they probably will.

When central banks intentionally create a situation where wealth is transferred from the 'have nots' to the 'haves', is it any wonder that the rich are getting richer? (Rhetorical question obviously.)