Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union doubled its online savings rate off to 1.50%
BUILDING CONSENT ISSUANCE SLOWS SHARPLY
There were 35,236 new homes consented in the year ended March 2024, down -25% compared with the same year prior. Recall it peaked the the May 2022 year at 51,000. In March 2024 there were only 2931 residential dwelling consents issued, down -26% overall from the same month a year earlier. For apartments it was down -32%, for townhouses down -29%. Some are suggesting a bottom is being reached.
HEADING LOWER
Barfoot & Thompson's sales and selling prices are heading lower as winter approaches. Their sales volumes and prices both dropped last month, and stock levels remain high at the end of April.
PROFIT SAG
BNZ reported that its interim profit dropped, with its income and net interest margin falling and expenses rising.
NZGBs REMAIN VERY POPULAR
Treasury tendered $500 mln in two tranches today of Government Bonds. They got 66 bids worth $1.378 bln, The May 2030 $250 mln went for 4.70% average yield pa, very similar to the same maturity two weeks ago. The April 2023 went for a yield of 4.83%, up from 4.50% six weeks ago.
A SPAT BETWEEN FRIENDS
New Zealand took Canada to an independent disputes tribunal over the issue of Canadian rules blocking our dairy access, something that isn't supposed to happen under the CPTPP that both parties are signatories to. New Zealand won. But the Canadians are not recognising the decision. Our trade minister said we are not backing down. War !
RESIGNED TO POOR SERVICE
Consistently high volumes of telco customer complaints have become the 'new normal', the disputes resolution provider says. Billing issues are the core matter complained about. Despite these being longstanding issues there is little progress to report. The majors don't seem to care if these results are anything to go by. Bad service isn't having commercial consequences.
THE SATISFACTION STAKES
The Co-operative Bank came out on top in Consumer NZ’s annual banking satisfaction survey. TSB was second, and ANZ third marginally ahead of ASB and BNZ. Westpac trailed the pack of retail banks.
HEARTLAND OUTLOOK UPGRADE
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings of Heartland Group Holdings Limited (HGL) and its subsidiary, Heartland Australia Group Pty Ltd (HAG), to Stable from Negative. The Outlook of another subsidiary, Heartland Bank Limited (HBL), remains at Stable. Fitch has also affirmed the Long-Term IDRs of HGL and HBL at 'BBB' and the Long-Term IDR of HAG at 'BBB-'. You can compare the ratings agency rating codes here.
NZ STORY HAS A NEW INITIATIVE
Watch it here.
SURPLUS SHRINKS
Australia's merchandise trade surplus fell to +AU$5 bln in March from a downwardly revised +AU$6.6 bln in the previous month. March came in well below market forecasts of +AU$7.3 bln. It was the smallest trade surplus since November 2020, as exports grew much slower than imports.
SWAP RATES STEADY
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed again today from yesterday. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.63%, a level it has hovered around for more than 60 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is little-changed from yesterday, now at 4.51%. The China 10 year bond rate holding during their holiday at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps to 4.94% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.91% and up +1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at 4.63%. Their 2yr is now at 4.95%, so the curve is shallower at -32 bps inverted.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is unchanged in late trade today. The ASX200 is up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Thursday trade essentially unchanged too. Hong Kong has opened up +2.2% today. Shanghai is still closed for the May Day holiday (Chinese Labor Day) but Singapore is back and up +0.4%. Wall Street closed its Wednesday session with the S&P500 down -0.3% and unable to hold its post-Fed rally.
OIL SOFTER AGAIN
The oil price is soft again today from this time yesterday, down about -US$2 at just over US$79/bbl in the US, while also to just on US$83.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD RISES BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$32 from yesterday, now at US$2319/oz.
NZD HOLDS FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar has risen nearly +½c over the past 24 hours, now at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are a bit softer at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 69, and up about +20 bps.
BITCOIN RETREATS FURTHER
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$57,414 and down another -3.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at +/-3.3%.
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.
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