Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report again today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either today.
RETREATING
Electronic retail sales value data from Statistics NZ shows that retail sales figures - which are not adjusted for inflation - are now -1.6% below the levels of a year ago. They are also down on a transaction basis as well now. Per capita, they will be even worse, confirming household financial pressures.
"SHAKE UP KIWISAVER"
The Retirement Commission wants the Government to implement a higher default KiwiSaver contribution rate, and require employer contributions for over 65s and under 18s.
YIELDS EASE
For the first time in a while, less than $1 bln was bid for the $500 mln available in the NZ Government bond tender in three tranches. The $250 mln April 2029 portion went for 4.50% yield, down marginally from the 4.56% three weeks ago. The $200 mln May 2032 portion went for a yield of 4.60%, down from 4.67% also three weeks ago. The final $50 mln April 2037 went for 4.81%, down from 4.93% two weeks ago.
THE SURGE HAS PASSED
After the huge post-border closure spurt, work and residence visa numbers are declining to more normal levels according to Immigration Dept data.
NEW THREAT
Watch out for new phishing campaigns against local organisations. Phishing emails sent via Microsoft OneDrive and Sharepoint are sharing invitations from trusted contacts, used to lure Kiwi victims.
STAYING PART-TIME
Australian payrolls rose by almost +40,000 in May, more than the expected +30,000 rise. Full-time employment rose +41,700 and part-time jobs fell by -2,100. There are now 14.458 mln people in Australia jobs, 31.4% of them part-time and their highest level since mid-2021. (The highest ever was in October 2020.) Their actual jobless rate is now 3.9% and their participation rate 67.2%.
CAPPING THE SIZE
Staying in Australia, their Treasury is consulting on reforms to the accounting, tax and auditing firms who are currently allowed to have 1000 partners. Their Greens are calling for that to be limited to 100. All this is in reaction to the PwC tax scandal and the drive to reform the profession.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be easing today on global influences. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.62%, a level it has hovered around for almost 90 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -10 bps from yesterday at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.75% from yesterday and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.68% and down -3 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down another -9 bps from yesterday at 4.31%. Their 2yr is now at 4.76%, so the curve is little-changed at -45 bps inverted.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The NZX50 is up +0.6% in late trade today. The ASX is up +0.5% in afternoon trade so far. Tokyo has opened its Thursday trading little-changed. However Hong Kong is up +0.6% and Shanghai is down -0.2% today in early trade. Singapore is up +0.6% in early trade there. The S&P500 ended its Wednesday trade up another +0.9% on Wall Street earlier.
OIL UNCHANGED
The oil price is unchanged from this time yesterday, still just on US$78/bbl in the US, and just on US$82/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is slightly firmer, up +US$3 from this time yesterday at just on US$2315/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer than this time yesterday, now at 61.7 USc but volatile in between as the US data flowed though the FX landscape. Against the Aussie we are marginally softer at just on 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also a tad softer at 57.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now still just over 71.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is up +0.9% today from this time yesterday, now at US$68,033. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%.
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