A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; job market confidence drops hard, surge in older migrants getting residency, job ads fall, power price concerns rise, swaps & NZD unchanged

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report again today. Meanwhile, Resimac said from July 1, 2024, it will cease accepting new home loan applications in New Zealand. After reaching a high in February 2021, Resimac's traded share price has fallen from AU$2.45 then to just AU$0.87 now.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.

LOWEST EVER, EXCEPT DURING THE PANDEMIC
Kiwis' confidence in getting a new job has plummeted. The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Survey shows a marked fall in the latest three months.

FAMILY REUNIONS TWIST IMMIGRATION DEMOGRAPHICS
There has been a big surge in the number of older migrants gaining residency. And the rise has been especially large for those over 65 years. (Opinion: This will only work for us if the number of people arriving in the 15-45 age bands rises much faster. The reason should be obvious.)

FAST REVERSAL
Meanwhile, the number of job ads declined for the fourth consecutive month in May. Seek reports NZ's labour market is ‘incredibly tough’ as job ad volumes are down -30% from a year ago.

RESTATED
The RBNZ foreign currency intervention capacity fell -$730 mln in May to $20.2 bln, but that was probably only a revaluation impact of their capacity in FCY.

GODFREY BOYCE JOINS BNZ BOARD
Godfrey Boyce, ex-CEO of KPMG NZ, has been appointed to BNZ's board, effective August 1. Boyce will be an independent, non-executive director. Prior to becoming KPMG's CEO in 2016, Boyce led the firm's advisory arm for three years. He joined KPMG in 1985 as a graduate and retired at the end of 2023.

KEEPING IT KIWI
Kiwi insurer Tower (TWR) announced it has entered into a referral agreement for general insurance products with Kiwibank for its retail banking customers. The agreement is for an initial term of five years. Tower has referral agreements in place with several other New Zealand organisations, including the Kiwi Adviser Network, New Zealand Financial Services Group and Trade Me, among others.

AVOCADO PROSPECTS LOOK UP
Although 2023 was a very tough year for the avocado industry, Rabobank notes that our exports to China shone. They rose +159% to that market and efforts to build market share in Asia are an essential step if New Zealand wants to become a more significant global player in term of avocado exports, they said. The US market is the global heavyweight but it would be hard to break in there given the well-entrenched supply chains from South America and Mexico.

AUSSIE CONSUMERS NOT CONVINCED INFLATION IS IN RETREAT
Australian consumer sentiment is mired in low territory, according the the June update of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey. Despite the improvement, consumer sentiment remains below its March level and still firmly in deeply pessimistic territory. The survey detail suggests positives from fiscal support measures are being negated by increased concerns about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.

BUT SOUTH KOREANS ARE MORE POSITIVE
Their latest consumer sentiment survey rose in June to its highest level since March. Sentiment regarding current living standards increased, while future outlook improved by the same margin. Expectations for future household income also rose.

SWAP RATES STAY ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be higher but only at the long end on global forces. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.61%, a level it has hovered around for 110 days now. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.24%. The China 10 year bond rate is also down -2 bps at 2.25%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps as well at 4.63% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.59% and unchanged from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from yesterday at 4.23%. Their 2yr is now at 4.73%, so the curve is a bit more inverted at -50 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.2% today in late trade. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.5%. Hong Kong is also up +0.5% at its open, but Shanghai is down -0.2% and continuing their retreat. Singapore is up +0.2%. But Wall Street ended its Monday session down -0.3% on the S&P500.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price is up +US$1 at US$81.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$85/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is slightly firmer, up +US$2 from this time yesterday at just on US$2326/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is only marginally firmer from this time yesterday, at 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are -20 softer at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also -20 bps softer at 57 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 70.8.

BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price is down -4.1% from this time yesterday, now at US$60,585. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been very high at just under +/- 4.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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