A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; retail rate-change drought extends, power consumers do it tough, Parliament eyes banking inquiry, Aussie CPI surprises, swaps up, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report again today. Update: Westpac has trimmed some short fixed rates. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.

RISING CONCERNS
Households and small businesses are feeling the chill from rising electricity bills according to the third annual Sentiment Survey undertaken by the Consumer Advocacy Council. The Council is an MBIE-appointed and funded group set up to monitor the regulated electricity sector. They say planned price rises risk worsening hardship. Two out of three residential consumers are worried about their electricity bill. Almost half of households and more than a third of small businesses are finding it harder to pay electricity bills than a year ago. And affordability and resilience of the network to storms remains the top issue of concern for households.

BIG 4 BANKS TO 'DUAL REPORT' CAPITAL
ANZ, ASB, BNZ & Westpac are required to "dual report" their regulatory capital positions from June 30, the Reserve Bank says. The four are accredited to use their own "internal ratings-based" models to calculate capital requirements for credit risk. They'll now also have to disclose their regulatory capital positions using the "standardised approach" set by the Reserve Bank, which other banks use.

LOWER & LATER
Westpac says the housing market momentum has slowed decidedly since the middle of last year, and has trimmed its 2024 house price growth forecast. And ANZ has now done the same.

POPULIST REGULATION
Parliament could start its own probe into business and rural lending as early as August, while the Coalition parties are currently jostling for the spotlight.

THE DISTANCE PENALTY
ASB economists expect 'a considerably more modest inflation impact' than during the pandemic spike in shipping costs, but say the latest rise 'will further crimp NZ and global household demand'.

AMORAL CROOK
'Lion's Share' crypto pyramid scammer Shelly Cullen, the self-described 'biggest scammer out there' who promoted the scheme to Māori and Pasifika communities during 2020 and 2021 has been ordered to pay record $5.9 mln fine. The scheme took in at least $17 mln from 150,000 people. She promoted the crypto currency pyramid on social media and YouTube, and has continued to promote schemes on Facebook after the court case against her this year. Her whereabouts are not known, and Cullen did not attend the April court hearing.

MONITORING FOR STRESS SIGNS
For the past few months we have been tracking commercial lease offers, watching for signs of both SME stress, and commercial property risks. While it is a shortish period so far, nationally these advertised levels are up a bit less than +4% an average for the past rolling 4 week period. They now total 21,800. The fastest rises are in Hamilton, New Plymouth, and Auckland's Manukau. The least are in Palmerston North. (We started this monitoring because we thought we saw an unusual spread of 'For Lease' signage in Auckland's North Shore. But the data shows essentially no rises since then.)

COORDINATE TO DO A BETTER JOB
The Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment is pointing out that the modeling councils use for freshwater management is inconsistent, and inadequate to get the desired result of better fresh water. He wants to see Councils more coordinated and using better tools.

NO MORE PROGRESS, GOING BACKWARDS
In Australia, their monthly inflation indicator for May edged up to 4% from 3.6% in April, boosting the chance of another RBA rate rise as underlying price pressures clearly remain entrenched. Australian government bond yields leapt almost +20 bps on the news, and to their highest in 2024. The AUD rose +50 bps. The ASX200 tumbled sharply. Markets may have reacted sharply but economists had a much more measured view preferring to see the relatively small month-on-month change as 'not much'. Meanwhile, an RBA boss said their policy positions are on the right track and will get inflation under control.

SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be higher in the shadow of the Aussie moves. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.62%, a level it has hovered around for 110 days now. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +11 bps from this time yesterday at 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.24%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.66% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.55% and down -4 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps from yesterday at 4.27%. Their 2yr is now at 4.72%, so the curve is less inverted at -45 bps.

EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.4% today in late trade. But the ASX200 is down -0.9% in afternoon trade after the CPI data. Tokyo has opened up a strong +1.4%. Hong Kong is down a minor -0.1% at its open, but Shanghai is down -0.6% and continuing their slide. Singapore is down -0.1%. However Wall Street ended its Tuesday session up +0.4% on the S&P500.

OIL SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The oil price is down -50 USc at US$81/bbl in the US, and just over US$84.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is slightly softer, down -US$8 from this time yesterday at just on US$2318/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is only marginally softer from this time yesterday, now at 61.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are -30 softer at 91.6 AUc after their CPI data. Against the euro we are +10 bps firmer at 57.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is actually little-changed at 70.7.

BITCOIN RECOVERS
The bitcoin price has recovered +2.5% from this time yesterday after yesterday's outsized drop, now at US$62,090. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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