Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has trimmed -11 bps off their six month fixed rate, now at 7.24%. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
AMP has now removed its 'special premium' from its term deposit offers. SBS Bank has trimmed -10 bps from its 9 month and 1 year rates, and -5 bps from its six month rate offer. This review may be useful. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
'FALLING PRECIPITOUSLY'
The June factory PMI makes for very grim reading. As BNZ says: "The manufacturing PMI has now been below 50 for 16 consecutive quarters. As if this isn’t bad enough forward orders have been sub-50 for 22 consecutive quarters suggesting further declines in output lie ahead. Indeed, if anything, the weakness appears to be deepening with June readings for four of the five PMI sub-indices falling precipitously from May’s already suppressed levels. While the weakness in these series has not been as deep as during the GFC the length of it has been longer, and it’s not over yet. Manufacturing activity is highly leveraged to domestic demand, particularly residential construction and household spending. Both of these are faltering."
RETAIL SHOWS DEPTH OF HOUSEHOLD PULLBACK
It is not only the manufacturing sector. Retail have its own tough signals in June. Card spending as a proxy for retail activity fell for the fifth consecutive time in June as households face ongoing financial strain.
FROM APP TO BANK?
Money app Dosh said it will apply to become a bank in New Zealand. If successful, this will make Dosh New Zealand’s first locally owned, digital-only bank. Dosh is locally owned, controlled by the two founders, and with a key equity stake by Avanti Finance.
DOOR WIDE OPEN
The number of permanent arrivals into Australia is now almost at a new record high in a very sharp rebound. +12,680 people arrived in the country in May, taking the annual level to +161,000. The record high permanent arrival level was +163,400 in February 2009.
CHINA TRADE FADES EXCEPT TO 3 COUNTRIES
China's exports were expected to rise +8% in June ahead of new American tariffs. But they actually rose +8.6% to a 15 month high. Their imports fell -2.3% however when a +2.8% rise was expected. They reported they imported almost -16% less from New Zealand in June than in the same month a year ago. They exported +2.4% more to us. For Australia, imports were down -5.2% and exports down -4.9%. For the US, their imports from them were down -4.9% and exports to them up +1.5%. Overall trading with China is pretty muted now. The only destinations that China has good exports to were Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and surprisingly Taiwan. Everyone else - Russia included - is very ho-hum. And total trade (imports and exports) is only healthy with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brazil.
SWAP RATES SETTLE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be just marginally softer today after Wednesday's falls although there remains downside risk. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 5.55%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.39%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.27%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.58% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.51% and down another -7 bps from yesterday, down -22 bps from a week ago. The UST 10yr yield is down -7 bps from yesterday at 4.22%. Their 2yr is still at 4.53%, so the curve is now less inverted, by -31 bps.
EQUITIES EXUBERANT
The NZX50 is up +0.5% from yesterday in late trade and heading for an unusually large +2.7% weekly gain. And the ASX200 is up +0.9% in afternoon trade, heading for its own +1.7% weekly rise. Tokyo is down -2.0% at its open, and if that holds it will be up a net +1.3% for the week. Hong Kong is up +1.8% and heading for its own +2.7% weekly rise. Shanghai is unchanged to open and so far that is a weekly +1.0% rise. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down -0.9% and despite still being near its all-time high, it is only a gain of +0.3% since their Monday open.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is essentially unchanged at US$82/bbl in the US, and at still just on US$85.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$33 from yesterday at US$2410/oz.
NZD EASES SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 60.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down another -10 bps at 56.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 69.9 and also down -10 bps.
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is down -1.1% from this time yesterday at US$57,215 US$57,865. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%.
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