The number of filled jobs in New Zealand fell for the third consecutive month in June, according to data from Statistics NZ.
Stats NZ's Monthly Employment Indicators (MEI) release showed that on a seasonally adjusted basis the number of filled jobs fell in June by 1,766 jobs (0.1%) to 2.38 million filled jobs.
In addition, Stats NZ has also revised down figures for the two previous months. April, which was originally recorded as having a gain of 0.1% has now been revised down to a loss of 0.2%, while the May figures, originally stated as being 'flat' are now recorded as a 0.3% fall.
It's the first time since the Global Financial Crisis that this data series has recorded three consecutive months of falls on a seasonally adjusted basis.
These latest figures come shortly ahead of the release on August 7 of the official unemployment figures for the June quarter.
While the MEI figures are compiled in a very different way to the official unemployment data (which are part of Stats NZ's Household Labour Force Survey) the latest MEI data nevertheless does not bode well for those forthcoming unemployment figures..
On a seasonally adjusted basis there were 14,342 fewer jobs at the end of the June quarter compared with at the beginning while on a 'actual' basis there were some 29,639 fewer filled jobs, according to the latest MEI figures.
On a year-on-year basis filled jobs growth has slowed to just 0.2%, while a year ago the annual rate of growth was 3.5%.
Stats NZ broke down the changes in the seasonally adjusted filled jobs for the June 2024 month (compared with the May 2024 month) as:
- all industries – down 0.1% (1,766 jobs) to 2.38 million filled jobs
- primary industries – down 0.5% (538 jobs)
- goods-producing industries – up 0.2% (798 jobs)
- service industries – down % (2,388 jobs).
Comparing actual figures for June with June 2023, Stats NZ said by industry, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with June 2023 were in:
- health care and social assistance – up 5.2% (14,047 jobs)
- administrative and support services – down 5.4% (5,887 jobs)
- public administration and safety – up 3.6% (5,738 jobs)
- retail trade – down 1.8% (3,996 jobs)
- professional, scientific, and technical services – down 2.0% (3,913 jobs).
By region, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with June 2023 were in:
- Canterbury – up 0.8% (2,410 jobs)
- Wellington – down 0.5% (1,430 jobs)
- Auckland – up 0.1% (1,052 jobs)
- Bay of Plenty – up 0.6% (903 jobs)
- Otago – up 0.7% (811 jobs).
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the jobs market in New Zealand "is now clearly softening".
"While the overall result wasn’t quite as weak as we were expecting, we’re aware that this series tends to be overstated on the first release. Indeed, the May result, which was initially reported as flat, has been revised to a 0.3% fall (and April – initially reported as 0.1% increase – was revised from -0.1% to -0.2%)," he said.
"The number of filled jobs is now up by just 0.2% on the same time last year. That’s happened at a time of still-strong population growth – even though net migration has passed its peak, the working-age population is still up around 3% on a year ago.
"The slowing pace of job creation is a recipe for a further rise in unemployment in the coming quarters," Gordon said.
The performance by industry has been mixed, although weakness is becoming more widespread, he said.
Construction sector jobs are continuing to gradually decline, as the pipeline of consented is work run down. There's also increasing evidence of declines in services sectors such as retail, hospitality, transport, professional and administrative services, and recreational activities.
"The MEI is drawn from income tax data, making it a comprehensive record of the number of people in work. While there are conceptual differences between this and the quarterly household survey, it has generally been a good predictor of the latter."
The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has forecast that the unemployment figures to be released on August 7 will show a rise to 4.6% from 4.3% as of the March quarter. The RBNZ's forecasting that unemployment will peak at 5.1%, although a number of economists now see the figure ending up being rather higher than that.
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