Recession

David Hargreaves looks at where the Official Cash Rate might go, what that means for mortgage holders and will it give a stuttering economic recovery fresh life?

David Hargreaves looks at where the Official Cash Rate might go, what that means for mortgage holders and will it give a stuttering economic recovery fresh life?

ANZ economists now see the OCR going as low as 2.5% and have trimmed their forecast house price growth this year from 6% to 4.5%

ANZ economists now see the OCR going as low as 2.5% and have trimmed their forecast house price growth this year from 6% to 4.5%

Kelly Eckhold says a lot has changed in the past week and he expects the RBNZ this week to indicate 'a firm intention to get the Official Cash Rate to 3% soon'

Kelly Eckhold says a lot has changed in the past week and he expects the RBNZ this week to indicate 'a firm intention to get the Official Cash Rate to 3% soon'

Kelly Eckhold says while the RBNZ appeared to promise an OCR cut next week almost unconditionally, decisions should always be based on the situation on the ground. 'No change with an easing bias would be the right thing to do'

Kelly Eckhold says while the RBNZ appeared to promise an OCR cut next week almost unconditionally, decisions should always be based on the situation on the ground. 'No change with an easing bias would be the right thing to do'

With the first quarter of the year nearly gone, and with GDP having returned to growth, David Hargreaves has a quick check on the economy's pulse

With the first quarter of the year nearly gone, and with GDP having returned to growth, David Hargreaves has a quick check on the economy's pulse

Economists don't see the upside surprise to the latest quarterly GDP figures as derailing likely Official Cash Rate cuts in each of the next two RBNZ reviews - but beyond that there's question marks over what comes next

Economists don't see the upside surprise to the latest quarterly GDP figures as derailing likely Official Cash Rate cuts in each of the next two RBNZ reviews - but beyond that there's question marks over what comes next

After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP grew a better-than expected 0.7% in the December quarter; figures 'a genuine upside surprise'

After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP grew a better-than expected 0.7% in the December quarter; figures 'a genuine upside surprise'

Patrick Watson of Mauldin Economics says talk of a US recession is now everywhere having seemed unlikely three months ago

Patrick Watson of Mauldin Economics says talk of a US recession is now everywhere having seemed unlikely three months ago

NZIER's latest consensus of economic forecasts shows that while economic growth is expected to rise above 2% by this time next year, economists see GDP only growing 2.6% by the March 2028 year

NZIER's latest consensus of economic forecasts shows that while economic growth is expected to rise above 2% by this time next year, economists see GDP only growing 2.6% by the March 2028 year

After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP likely returned to positive growth for the December quarter, but the growth's looking pretty subdued so far

After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP likely returned to positive growth for the December quarter, but the growth's looking pretty subdued so far

Stats NZ figures show that manufacturing and wholesale sale figures flipped into positive territory in the December quarter after both going backwards in the September quarter; meat and dairy were strong contributors

Stats NZ figures show that manufacturing and wholesale sale figures flipped into positive territory in the December quarter after both going backwards in the September quarter; meat and dairy were strong contributors

The Reserve Bank is clearing the way for further interest rate falls, which should spark the economy again. But when and how quickly? David Hargreaves has a look at how things are tracking

The Reserve Bank is clearing the way for further interest rate falls, which should spark the economy again. But when and how quickly? David Hargreaves has a look at how things are tracking

No improvement for Spark in latest financials, as recession takes big bites out of earnings and profit

No improvement for Spark in latest financials, as recession takes big bites out of earnings and profit

Reserve Bank cuts OCR to 3.75% and indicates room for more cuts than earlier forecast this year; economists say 'we are all on the same page now'

Reserve Bank cuts OCR to 3.75% and indicates room for more cuts than earlier forecast this year; economists say 'we are all on the same page now'

Weak NZ economy and more proactive and prescriptive approach to loan arrears leads to almost $50m impairment for Heartland, shares tank

Weak NZ economy and more proactive and prescriptive approach to loan arrears leads to almost $50m impairment for Heartland, shares tank

Members of the 'Shadow Board' the NZIER assembles to state views on the Official Cash Rate strongly agree the OCR will be cut 50 basis points this week - but there's a diversity of views on what should come next

Members of the 'Shadow Board' the NZIER assembles to state views on the Official Cash Rate strongly agree the OCR will be cut 50 basis points this week - but there's a diversity of views on what should come next

The services sector expanded slightly in January, as did the manufacturing sector - results that point toward an economic recovery later in the year

The services sector expanded slightly in January, as did the manufacturing sector - results that point toward an economic recovery later in the year

A 50-point cut to the Official Cash Rate is a near certainty in the coming week, so attention will quickly turn to whatever signals the Reserve Bank may give about further cuts

A 50-point cut to the Official Cash Rate is a near certainty in the coming week, so attention will quickly turn to whatever signals the Reserve Bank may give about further cuts

The Reserve Bank will have to deliver more interest rate cuts than it has signalled this year, or the risk of further job losses will only grow, Kiwibank economists say

The Reserve Bank will have to deliver more interest rate cuts than it has signalled this year, or the risk of further job losses will only grow, Kiwibank economists say

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway sees dominance of the 'traditional drivers of growth' in the New Zealand economy coming to an end

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway sees dominance of the 'traditional drivers of growth' in the New Zealand economy coming to an end

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the central bank will have to 'feel its way' as the OCR gets closer to its estimate of neutral and he doesn't see a return to 'ultra-low' rates seen during the early stages of the pandemic any time soon

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the central bank will have to 'feel its way' as the OCR gets closer to its estimate of neutral and he doesn't see a return to 'ultra-low' rates seen during the early stages of the pandemic any time soon

Another monthly rise in the number of filled jobs in December may indicate that New Zealand's rate of unemployment is close to peaking

Another monthly rise in the number of filled jobs in December may indicate that New Zealand's rate of unemployment is close to peaking

HSBC economists expect the Official Cash Rate to be down to 3% by the third quarter of this year and see the economy growing 1.8% in 2025 and 2.5% next year

HSBC economists expect the Official Cash Rate to be down to 3% by the third quarter of this year and see the economy growing 1.8% in 2025 and 2.5% next year

Activity in NZ's services sector contracted further in December, matching a more contractionary performance in the month from the manufacturing sector as well

Activity in NZ's services sector contracted further in December, matching a more contractionary performance in the month from the manufacturing sector as well

Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month

Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month