Recession

Monthly filled jobs data has so far not shown any declines this year, which indicates the unemployment level may have peaked or be close to it

Monthly filled jobs data has so far not shown any declines this year, which indicates the unemployment level may have peaked or be close to it

BNZ's head of research Stephen Toplis says the Reserve Bank 'does have a track record' of withdrawing guidance on the future forecast level of the Official Cash Rate

BNZ's head of research Stephen Toplis says the Reserve Bank 'does have a track record' of withdrawing guidance on the future forecast level of the Official Cash Rate

Maurice Obstfeld warns that fragmenting capital markets are putting the greenback's global primacy at risk

Maurice Obstfeld warns that fragmenting capital markets are putting the greenback's global primacy at risk

Stephen Roach thinks Trump's tariffs and attacks on the Fed will make it difficult for the world to sidestep recession

Stephen Roach thinks Trump's tariffs and attacks on the Fed will make it difficult for the world to sidestep recession

David Hargreaves looks at where the Official Cash Rate might go, what that means for mortgage holders and will it give a stuttering economic recovery fresh life?

David Hargreaves looks at where the Official Cash Rate might go, what that means for mortgage holders and will it give a stuttering economic recovery fresh life?

ANZ economists now see the OCR going as low as 2.5% and have trimmed their forecast house price growth this year from 6% to 4.5%

ANZ economists now see the OCR going as low as 2.5% and have trimmed their forecast house price growth this year from 6% to 4.5%

Kelly Eckhold says a lot has changed in the past week and he expects the RBNZ this week to indicate 'a firm intention to get the Official Cash Rate to 3% soon'

Kelly Eckhold says a lot has changed in the past week and he expects the RBNZ this week to indicate 'a firm intention to get the Official Cash Rate to 3% soon'

Kelly Eckhold says while the RBNZ appeared to promise an OCR cut next week almost unconditionally, decisions should always be based on the situation on the ground. 'No change with an easing bias would be the right thing to do'

Kelly Eckhold says while the RBNZ appeared to promise an OCR cut next week almost unconditionally, decisions should always be based on the situation on the ground. 'No change with an easing bias would be the right thing to do'

With the first quarter of the year nearly gone, and with GDP having returned to growth, David Hargreaves has a quick check on the economy's pulse

With the first quarter of the year nearly gone, and with GDP having returned to growth, David Hargreaves has a quick check on the economy's pulse

Economists don't see the upside surprise to the latest quarterly GDP figures as derailing likely Official Cash Rate cuts in each of the next two RBNZ reviews - but beyond that there's question marks over what comes next

Economists don't see the upside surprise to the latest quarterly GDP figures as derailing likely Official Cash Rate cuts in each of the next two RBNZ reviews - but beyond that there's question marks over what comes next

After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP grew a better-than expected 0.7% in the December quarter; figures 'a genuine upside surprise'

After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP grew a better-than expected 0.7% in the December quarter; figures 'a genuine upside surprise'

Patrick Watson of Mauldin Economics says talk of a US recession is now everywhere having seemed unlikely three months ago

Patrick Watson of Mauldin Economics says talk of a US recession is now everywhere having seemed unlikely three months ago

NZIER's latest consensus of economic forecasts shows that while economic growth is expected to rise above 2% by this time next year, economists see GDP only growing 2.6% by the March 2028 year

NZIER's latest consensus of economic forecasts shows that while economic growth is expected to rise above 2% by this time next year, economists see GDP only growing 2.6% by the March 2028 year

After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP likely returned to positive growth for the December quarter, but the growth's looking pretty subdued so far

After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP likely returned to positive growth for the December quarter, but the growth's looking pretty subdued so far

Stats NZ figures show that manufacturing and wholesale sale figures flipped into positive territory in the December quarter after both going backwards in the September quarter; meat and dairy were strong contributors

Stats NZ figures show that manufacturing and wholesale sale figures flipped into positive territory in the December quarter after both going backwards in the September quarter; meat and dairy were strong contributors