Recession

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says future path for the OCR is conditional on how the economy evolves as some bank economists bring their forecasts for increases forward

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says future path for the OCR is conditional on how the economy evolves as some bank economists bring their forecasts for increases forward

RBNZ forecasts annual inflation will spike to 4.2% in the June quarter and warns medium-term inflationary pressure will depend on the extent to which higher costs influence price and wage-setting behaviour by firms and workers in the economy

RBNZ forecasts annual inflation will spike to 4.2% in the June quarter and warns medium-term inflationary pressure will depend on the extent to which higher costs influence price and wage-setting behaviour by firms and workers in the economy

Statistics NZ's monthly employment indicators showed a 0.3% rise for jobs in February - but that was before you-know-what

Statistics NZ's monthly employment indicators showed a 0.3% rise for jobs in February - but that was before you-know-what

Westpac economists see 'a better than even chance' that the RBNZ Governor will in her upcoming speech give a preliminary assessment of how the Middle East shock is impacting the RBNZ's assessment of the monetary policy outlook

Westpac economists see 'a better than even chance' that the RBNZ Governor will in her upcoming speech give a preliminary assessment of how the Middle East shock is impacting the RBNZ's assessment of the monetary policy outlook

ANZ staff are reporting that customers are 'wary so far', but not panicking - however, some businesses are saying that the phones have stopped ringing

ANZ staff are reporting that customers are 'wary so far', but not panicking - however, some businesses are saying that the phones have stopped ringing

New Zealand’s economy grew 0.2% in the December 2025 quarter with rental, hiring and real estate services the largest contributors

New Zealand’s economy grew 0.2% in the December 2025 quarter with rental, hiring and real estate services the largest contributors

'It’s nightmare time for the RBNZ. Supply shocks cannot be handled well by central banks. We have had plenty of recent evidence of this'

'It’s nightmare time for the RBNZ. Supply shocks cannot be handled well by central banks. We have had plenty of recent evidence of this'

BNZ economists say latest Performance of Services Index figures are 'are real disappointment' and suggest 'the economy is growing at a slower pace than we might have expected'

BNZ economists say latest Performance of Services Index figures are 'are real disappointment' and suggest 'the economy is growing at a slower pace than we might have expected'

December quarter GDP figures due for release in the coming week may prove to be disappointment - which wouldn't provide a helpful background as we face the uncertainties of the Middle East situation

December quarter GDP figures due for release in the coming week may prove to be disappointment - which wouldn't provide a helpful background as we face the uncertainties of the Middle East situation

Kiwibank economists say the Reserve Bank may well have to tolerate higher inflation in the short term to avoid raising interest rates into a slowing global economy

Kiwibank economists say the Reserve Bank may well have to tolerate higher inflation in the short term to avoid raising interest rates into a slowing global economy

Economists are beginning to flirt with a revolutionary idea - that the New Zealand economy might be able to grow and prosper without the traditional leg-up from the housing market

Economists are beginning to flirt with a revolutionary idea - that the New Zealand economy might be able to grow and prosper without the traditional leg-up from the housing market

Filled jobs growth returned again in January following a dip in December

Filled jobs growth returned again in January following a dip in December

In order not to kill our fragile economic recovery, the Reserve Bank's taken something of a calculated gamble that inflation will behave itself

In order not to kill our fragile economic recovery, the Reserve Bank's taken something of a calculated gamble that inflation will behave itself

Reserve Bank holds the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% and is not forecasting a rise until either late this year or early next

Reserve Bank holds the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% and is not forecasting a rise until either late this year or early next

'The big question to end 2025 was whether the economy may be turning. Data since then has given us confidence that recent positive momentum can be sustained. The economy is growing'

'The big question to end 2025 was whether the economy may be turning. Data since then has given us confidence that recent positive momentum can be sustained. The economy is growing'