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Recession

Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr on why he expects the OCR to be hiked another 100 basis points by August, but why the RBNZ doesn't need to go as high as its 4% OCR forecast
29th May 22, 6:00am
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Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr on why he expects the OCR to be hiked another 100 basis points by August, but why the RBNZ doesn't need to go as high as its 4% OCR forecast
Stephen Roach contrasts the current US Federal Reserve chair's anti-inflation stance with that of his hawkish 1980s predecessor
27th May 22, 10:52am
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Stephen Roach contrasts the current US Federal Reserve chair's anti-inflation stance with that of his hawkish 1980s predecessor
BNZ economists say the chances of a recession increase by the day and they are predicting economic growth to 'stall' completely next year; house price falls to get worse
11th May 22, 1:30pm
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BNZ economists say the chances of a recession increase by the day and they are predicting economic growth to 'stall' completely next year; house price falls to get worse
Stephen Roach says predictions of 'the perfect soft landing' for the global economy could be wishful thinking
26th Apr 22, 3:59pm
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Stephen Roach says predictions of 'the perfect soft landing' for the global economy could be wishful thinking
David Hargreaves says the poor planning of the Government coupled with a worsening economic scenario doesn't bode well for our moves to reconnect with the world
24th Mar 22, 2:39pm
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David Hargreaves says the poor planning of the Government coupled with a worsening economic scenario doesn't bode well for our moves to reconnect with the world
John Mauldin says with energy spikes preceding almost every recession in the past 80 years, another one is coming now and it will be global
14th Mar 22, 12:05pm
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John Mauldin says with energy spikes preceding almost every recession in the past 80 years, another one is coming now and it will be global
David Hargreaves highlights some of the issues he's looking out for in 2022 and ponders what's looking increasingly like a very unpleasant legacy of the global pandemic
9th Dec 21, 10:03am
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David Hargreaves highlights some of the issues he's looking out for in 2022 and ponders what's looking increasingly like a very unpleasant legacy of the global pandemic
The old favourites - Covid, closed borders and hot houses - ruled the year again. But Covid got much more up close and personal, and there's a menacing 'new', but familiar-looking, kid in town. David Hargreaves shares his views on the year that was
7th Dec 21, 9:30am
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The old favourites - Covid, closed borders and hot houses - ruled the year again. But Covid got much more up close and personal, and there's a menacing 'new', but familiar-looking, kid in town. David Hargreaves shares his views on the year that was
Stephen Roach is getting that 1970s feeling from the Federal Reserve's sanguine view of recent price data
26th May 21, 9:49am
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Stephen Roach is getting that 1970s feeling from the Federal Reserve's sanguine view of recent price data
Stephen Roach explains why he expected a double-dip US recession this year, and why that call now lies in tatters
25th Apr 21, 8:59am
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Stephen Roach explains why he expected a double-dip US recession this year, and why that call now lies in tatters
Pinelopi Goldberg points out that poor countries aren't becoming richer so much as rich countries are becoming poorer
30th Jan 21, 3:35pm
by Guest
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Pinelopi Goldberg points out that poor countries aren't becoming richer so much as rich countries are becoming poorer
Stephen Roach explains why the negative impact on supply and demand will not end when the pandemic does
28th Dec 20, 7:59am
by Guest
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Stephen Roach explains why the negative impact on supply and demand will not end when the pandemic does
David Hargreaves with a wish list for 2021, which includes vaccines, open borders and cooling house prices
13th Dec 20, 7:02am
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David Hargreaves with a wish list for 2021, which includes vaccines, open borders and cooling house prices
David Hargreaves reviews 2020 - a year that proved to be anything but the 'stable and boring' one he was looking for
6th Dec 20, 6:31am
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David Hargreaves reviews 2020 - a year that proved to be anything but the 'stable and boring' one he was looking for
Stephen Roach points out that while a COVID-19 vaccine promises a spring of hope, a winter of despair is coming first for the US
25th Nov 20, 12:27pm
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Stephen Roach points out that while a COVID-19 vaccine promises a spring of hope, a winter of despair is coming first for the US
Massey's Alison Brook investigates the current fad to decouple from globalisation. Are we about to jump from efficient but painful global settings into inefficient and even more painful policies?
11th Nov 20, 10:17am
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Massey's Alison Brook investigates the current fad to decouple from globalisation. Are we about to jump from efficient but painful global settings into inefficient and even more painful policies?
Massey's Alison Brook explains why a K-shaped recovery is what we are heading for and the four factors that make it the most likely outcome
22nd Oct 20, 7:40am
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Massey's Alison Brook explains why a K-shaped recovery is what we are heading for and the four factors that make it the most likely outcome
Economist Brian Easton says the economy has been through a traumatic experience. Prospects look sobering
12th Oct 20, 9:21am
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Economist Brian Easton says the economy has been through a traumatic experience. Prospects look sobering
Mohamed El-Erian thinks markets should be more worried about the faltering policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis
8th Oct 20, 10:27am
by Guest
Mohamed El-Erian thinks markets should be more worried about the faltering policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis
Economist Brian Easton says much of the commentariat’s reporting of the most recent GDP figure was misleading and unhelpful
23rd Sep 20, 9:09am
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Economist Brian Easton says much of the commentariat’s reporting of the most recent GDP figure was misleading and unhelpful
Gareth Vaughan on natural rate of unemployment dogma, justifying equity bull markets, Melbourne battles on, from tourism to nappies, and the US electoral tinderbox
4th Sep 20, 12:33pm
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Gareth Vaughan on natural rate of unemployment dogma, justifying equity bull markets, Melbourne battles on, from tourism to nappies, and the US electoral tinderbox
Eswar Prasad explains why a new version of the renminbi will fail to challenge the US dollar's dominance
26th Aug 20, 1:40pm
by Guest
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Eswar Prasad explains why a new version of the renminbi will fail to challenge the US dollar's dominance
Stephen Roach argues that the pandemic's continuing impact on consumer demand all but rules out a V-shaped recovery
26th Aug 20, 10:59am
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Stephen Roach argues that the pandemic's continuing impact on consumer demand all but rules out a V-shaped recovery
Gareth Vaughan on the lack of a positive impact from QE on bank lending, everything is going to be repriced, stealing from our kids, the degrowth movement, reported COVID-19 deaths & excess deaths
20th Aug 20, 9:04am
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Gareth Vaughan on the lack of a positive impact from QE on bank lending, everything is going to be repriced, stealing from our kids, the degrowth movement, reported COVID-19 deaths & excess deaths
ASB economists have crunched the numbers on what the current alert level settings may mean for the economy - and what impact a broader lockdown would have
13th Aug 20, 9:32am
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ASB economists have crunched the numbers on what the current alert level settings may mean for the economy - and what impact a broader lockdown would have