The employment market is showing further signs of stabilising, with strong growth in service sector jobs driving an overall rise in filled jobs in January.
Stats NZ reported in its monthly employment indicators (MEI) that January filled jobs were, on a seasonally adjusted basis, up by just under 0.2% in January (4217 jobs) to 2.35 million.
The recent trend for this data series is that figures tend to get revised down in subsequent months, although that 4000+ rise for January may well be strong enough to ensure that any subsequent revisions stay in the positive.
However, the December figures, originally reported as just down a little, have now been revised to a 0.25% drop. But balancing that is the fact that the November figures, have been revised up from the initially reported numbers to a rise of over 0.5%, the strongest monthly gain since April 2023.
The MEI figures are not directly comparable with the official unemployment figures as they are sourced quite differently - coming from Inland Revenue data - but they nevertheless have tended to be quite a good indicator of future trends.
With the economy now starting to show solid signs of recovery, there will be much interest in when the employment market turns.
The official unemployment figures for the December quarter showed an unemployment rate of 5.4%, which was up from 5.3% from the September quarter - however, a meaningful rise in the 'participation rate' in the December quarter - more people making themselves available for work - made those December figures look somewhat worse than they were.
The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is forecasting that the unemployment rate will ease to 5.3% in the March quarter we are currently in. But it sees the rate of unemployment dropping back only slowly this year, to reach 5.0% by December 2026.
The services industry, which makes up about two-thirds of our GDP, has really struggled during the economic downturn. So, it will be viewed as an encouraging sign that the January rise in filled jobs was very much led by a nearly 5000 (0.3%) seasonally-adjusted rise in service sector jobs.
These were the key facts for January as reported by Stats NZ:
- all industries – up 0.2 percent (4,217 jobs) to 2.35 million filled jobs
- primary industries – down 1.0% (1,071 jobs)
- goods-producing industries – down 0.2% (661 jobs)
- service industries – up 0.3% (4,986 jobs).
In terms of actual figures (IE not seasonally-adjusted), in January 2026, there were 2.33 million actual filled jobs, down 3,533 jobs (0.2%), compared with January 2025.
By industry, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with January 2025 were in:
- construction – down 2.8% (5,381 jobs)
- health care and social assistance – up 1.6% (4,560 jobs)
- public administration and safety – up 2.6% (4,282 jobs)
- manufacturing – down 1.6% (3,584 jobs)
- education and training – up 1.7% (3,478 jobs).
By region, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with January 2025 were in:
- Auckland – down 0.6% (4,842 jobs)
- Canterbury – up 1.4% (4,437 jobs)
- Wellington – down 0.9% (2,311 jobs)
- Northland – down 2.1% (1,563 jobs)
- Waikato – up 0.6% (1,439 jobs).
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