Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ANZ cut many rates today. Details here. First Credit Union also cut rates. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
And, ANZ cut many TD and savings rates. And raised one. Details here. First Credit Union also trimmed some rates. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A LONG TIME TO SELL
As an icon marker for the struggles of the real estate industry, data out today shows that there is now 31 weeks of sales on average in the level of listed houses available for sale. That is a decade high. In Auckland, it is 40 weeks adn the highest since 2010. For Wellington it is only 17 weeks. In Canterbury it is 19 weeks.
AND WHEN THEY DO, IT IS FOR LESS
CoreLogic says the national median dwelling value declined for the fifth consecutive month in July, down -0.5% from June. Their home Value Index, the median value of all dwellings in New Zealand was $827,515 in July, from the record high of $982,918 set in January 2022. That is an average retreat of -$155,400.
'AI DETECTION' SCAM SITES FLOURISH
Beware of websites claiming they can detect faked AI generated content; they might be fakes themselves
INSURERS HAVE SETTLED 96% OF CLAIMS FROM SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS IN 2023
The Insurance Council of New Zealand (ICNZ) says insurers have now fully settled 96% of claims from the Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle. This is up from 91% claims settled in March. ICNZ Chief Executive Kris Faafoi says 112,746 out of 118,037 claims have been settled so far at a cost of $3.8 billion and the amount of claims reflect the severity of the events. He says up to $4 billion is expected to be paid out in claims from the two disasters. ICNZ has priced these two events as the largest insurance weather events in New Zealand's history.
NON-PERFORMING HOUSING LOANS NOT RISING
Latest RBNZ figures show the total of non-performing housing loans is hovering around $1.9 bln as mortgage holders look towards interest rate relief in the closing months of the year.
PRISTINE DEBT SECURITIES VERY POPULAR
There was a very well supported NZGB tender today attracting 120 bids worth more than $1.5 bln. Only 30 bids were accepted for the $500 mln on offer. The May 2030 $300 mln went for a yield of 4.02%, down from 4.53% at the equivalent tender five weeks ago. The May 2034 $150 mln went for 4.28%, down from 4.37% two weeks ago. And the April 2037 $50 mln went for 4.47%, down from 4.54% two weeks ago. More than $315 mln was bid on this last tranche from 31 bidders. But only two bidders won anything.
FEWER RISES
In Australia, some heat seems to be going out of some residential real estate markets. July prices actually fell in Melbourne, Hobart and darwin, and were no-change in Canberra from June. That only leaves Perth Adelaide and Brisbane wirth rising prices. Sydney rose too but only a minor +0.3%.
WHEN PRICES ARE LOW, SHIP MORE
The Aussie merchandise trade surplus rose in June to AU$5.5 bln. No surprises there. But interestingly there are stresses beneath the hood. The are seeing the falling global steel price hit some reasonably significant aspects of their terms of trade. Iron ores prices fell -9%, coal prices are down -13%. Gas prices are down -8%. Shipping more helped cushion the overall impact. And they were 'lucky' - the price of gold rose +12% offsetting some of the other falls.
MINING NOT SO SEASY
In Australia, American miner Albemarle said it is cutting hundreds of jobs at its WA lithium mining operation. Falling prices and reduced demand for lithium has necessitated the sudden move. The Aussies are shocked, I tell you, shocked.
SHARP TURN LOWER
In what is actually a sharp turn lower, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.8 in July from 51.8 in June, missing market forecasts of 51.5. It was the first fall in factory activity in this survey since last October and the key change was a fall in new orders. Recall yesterday we noted the official NBS factory PMI also retreated, to 49.4 in that case.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today across the curve. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.46% and a new 115 day low. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps from this time yesterday to 4.10%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps at 4.32% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.30% and down -10 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -9 bps at 4.05%. Their 2yr is now at 4.28%, so that curve is now inverted by -23 bps.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED AGAIN
The NZX50 is up +0.6% in late trade. But the ASX200 is up only half that, up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Thursday trade down a very sharp -2.6%. Hong Kong is down -0.3% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down -0.7%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up a strong +1.6%
OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$2.50 from this time yesterday at US$78/bbl in the US, and at US$81/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE EASES SLIGHTLY
Today the carbon price slipped to $51/NZU today from $51.50/NZU at this time yesterday. That puts it -19% lower than the same day a year ago. Please note that we have a new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$33 from this time yesterday at US$2439/oz.
NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +½c from this time yesterday, now back up at 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are +40 bps firmer at 55 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now up at 68.8.
BITCOIN FALLS BACK
The bitcoin price is -3.6% lower from this time yesterday, now at US$63,977. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.
USE OF AI
No articles on this news service are produced with AI. Occasionally we use AI to derive images. They are always identified in the attribution.
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