A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; migration up/citizens leaving down, dairy powder prices stay elevated, generator consolidation, swaps stable, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank has reduced fixed rates by between -10 and -20 bps for fixed terms 2 years and longer. All rates are here. Update: ANZ has cut most fixed rates, effective tomorrow. More details here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Unity Money cut call its TD rates. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here. Update: ANZ has cut all its TD rates for terms of 6 months and longer.

NET MIGRATION GAIN STILL POSITIVE
NZ has highest monthly net migration gain since February. Large numbers of students pushed the monthly net migration gain to more than 5,000 in July. Interestingly, the departures of citizens seems to be fading in these latest numbers.

TOURISM AT MODEST LEVELS
Currently the international tourism sector is running at modest levels. Overseas visitor arrivals were 221,800 in July, an increase of 8,000 from the July 2023 month. The biggest changes were in arrivals from Australia (up +11,400), China (up +10,000) and the United States (down -13,100). Half of all visitors were from Australia (compared with the same in July 2019, pre-pandemic). 12% were from China, 7% were from the United States, and 3% were from the United Kingdom. Most of these 2024 proportions were the same as pre-pandemic - although in July 2019 the levels were 15% higher. We are getting "slow tourism" naturally. Separately, Australians are travelling more and Bali and New Zealand (in that order) are again their most popular destinations.

DAIRY PRICES HOLD HIGH
The overnight dairy Pulse auction saw SMP dart higher than expected to US$2800/tonne, its highest level since February 2023. The WMP component however slightly undershot expectations at US$3438/tonne, but holding its level of four weeks ago. It is not a serious weakness in a series of auction events where the WMP price has been a little volatile.

GENERATION CONSOLIDATION
Contact (CEN, #8) has agreed to take over Infratil-controlled Manawa Energy (MNW, #24) in a $2 bln power generation linkup. Manawa shareholders to be offered a mix of cash and Contact shares in a deal that brings two of the larger NZX listed companies together. Together, they will have revenues of $3.5 bln, making it larger than Mercury (MCY, #5).

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Manawa leaps, Contact drops, Infratil laughing, Kathmandu extends horror run.

TRYING TO BE A FAST PAYER
The Government is improving its payment times for invoices from suppliers. And it is reporting this performance quarterly now. More than 95% of invoices were paid within 10 working days, up from 93.6% in the previous quarter. 21 agencies are paying more than 95% of their invoices within 10 working days. They say this number will improve given the current momentum with key suppliers to Government becoming eInvoicing enabled.

BACK TO NORMAL?
Foodstuffs suppliers won only a +2.3% rise in prices they charged the supermarket chain in August. That is the least since late 2021.

AI SPREADS IN GOVT USAGE
Callaghan Innovation and the Whāriki Maori Business Network is to develop a multilingual GovGPT AI chatbot pilot project with an unnamed technology provider. This is an extension of an extending trend to use AI in various ways (read article for existing uses).

SUBSIDISED BUT STILL LOWER SALES
China's August vehicle sales were soft. They were 2.45 mln units in the month, -5.0% lower than for August 2023. And this was despite a Beijing program to boost this key domestic market. 1.1 mln of the sold units (45%) were EVs or hybrids. In July, sales were -5.4% lower that a year ago. Without the support, you have to wonder what levels they would be at.

SWAP RATES HOLD AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today, maybe softer. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.11%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 3.91%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 2.13%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.22% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.18% and down -1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -8 bps at 3.63%. Their 2yr is now at 3.59%, so that curve is now positive by +4 bps.

EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The NZX50 is little-changed in its late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday trade down -0.8% at its open. Hong Kong is down -1.3% and Shanghai has opened down -0.8%. Singapore is up +0.5% at its open. Wall Street rose today with the S&P500 up +0.4%.

OIL DROPS
The oil price is down -US$2.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$66/bbl in the US, and now at US$69.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STILL IN NARROW BAND
The carbon price is at $61.40/NZU, still in its new narrow band and only the smallest dip today. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$16 at US$2519/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 61.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 92.4 AUc. And against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is +10 bps higher at 69.4.

BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is up +0.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$57,084. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».