A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; retail spending shows tiny rise, price indexes confirm lower inflation, CoreLogic sees soft house prices, NZGB yields jump, swaps and NZD slip, and more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut most fixed rates, effective today. More details here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has also cut all its TD rates for terms of 6 months and longer. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

GOING UP?
Retail spending using cards turned up in August after 6 months of falls, with +0.2% rise. Maybe the August tax cut effects are starting to come through?

GOING BACKWARDS?
ANZ's truckometer monitoring shows the light vehicle index rising +0.6% in August from July to be -1.3% lower than a year ago. Their heavy vehicle index flopped -0.7% in August to be -4.0% lower than a year ago. The overall signal regarding economic activity remains weak, they say. On a per capita basis, quite weak.

GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION?
Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes show that food prices rose just +0.4% in the year to August while rent increases remained at the same level and fuel and travel costs dipped. These muted rises point to inflation heading under 3%.

GOING SOUTH?
CoreLogic sees 'further softening' in house values over coming months. The signs of a slowdown in the housing market are now much clearer, particularly in Auckland, they say.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. The NZX50 rises despite more decliners than gainers. The exchange itself is one of the best advancers.

$1 BLN EXCESS IN SURGE BIDDING
There were 126 bids for the $500 mln available in the three tranches of today's NZGB tenders. A huge $1.45 bln was offered, making it almost $1 bln more than what was available. All that demand pushed down yields (and pushed up bond asset prices). In fact the April 2029 went for a yield of just 3.75%, -33 bps less than the last time this was offered seven weeks ago. The May 2035 was even more popular, getting $685 mln in bids for the $150 mln available and this excess demand pushed its yield down to 4.22%, -24 bps lower than the last time seven weeks ago. If you have exposure to a fund with NZGB's it is likely to be doing better now.

STUCK IN A RUT
Updated data for July FX trading volumes show a relatively timid market, now averaging just over $10 bln per day in transactions. That is the bottom end of the range this has been in since the start of the pandemic in early 2020.

BANK SETTLEMENT BALANCES STILL TRENDING LOWER
Similarly, bank settlement balances (R3) are trending lower, back to levels first reached in early 2022, even if they did rise in August from July

A TOUGH SQUEEZE
It seems the Australian central bank is right to be sceptical inflation is trending in the way they need it to. Consumer inflation expectations are still at 4.4% in September in Australia, only slightly down from August's 4-month high of 4.5%. Perhaps the situation will turn soon. The same survey showed that respondents expected total pay was expected to grow by just +1.4% over the next 12 months.

SWAP RATES WITH SOFT TONE
Wholesale swap rates are probably eased again today especially at the short end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.10%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 3.91%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 2.13%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.21% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.17% and also down -1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 3.67%. Their 2yr is now at 3.66%, so that curve is now positive by only +1 bp.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The NZX50 is up +0.7% in its late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday trade roaring up +2.8% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.8% but Shanghai has opened down -0.1%. Singapore is up +0.4% at its open. Wall Street rose today with the S&P500 up its own strong +1.1%.

OIL BOUNCES BACK
The oil price is up +US$1.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$67.50/bbl in the US, and now at US$71/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STAYS IN NARROW BAND
The carbon price is at $61/NZU, still in its new narrow band and with another small dip today. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$7 at US$2512/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 61.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 91.9 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 55.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is -10 bps lower at 69.3.

BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price is up +1.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$57,935. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».