A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; more retail rate cuts, sentiment less pessimistic, no improvement in current account deficit, swaps await the Fed, NZD does too, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank cut all its fixed rates today. Unity Money did so too. More here. More details here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank cut its TD rates for terms nine months and longer. Heartland Bank cut its TD rates for terms 3 months to 3 years. AMP matched Heartland. More here. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

LESS PESSIMISTIC
Although still low, the Westpac MM consumer confidence survey for September showed an easing of pessimism.

EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT DIDN'T HAPPEN
Our Q2 current account deficit failed to record the improvement expected. The deficit between what we earn overseas and what we spend has remained at -6.7% of GDP, contrary to expectations that the ratio would decrease. This key deficit remains 'unsustainably wide', and it has some observers wondering if it threatens our high AA+ sovereign credit rating.

NET DEBT HOLDS 'LOW'
Net external debt (international assets and liabilities excluding equity and financial derivatives) widened by $2.6 bln during the June 2024 quarter, to reach $204.9 bln, or now 49.6% of GDP. It has been at about this level since December 2019 (48.8%) with little change since. Prior to that, it peaked 84.1% of GDP in December 2008.

DAIRY PRICES SOLID
Conditions in the dairy sector continue to be positive. Today they were helped by a solid full GDT auction. Overall prices rose (+0.8%) driven by strongish gains from the powders while the “fats” fell. Cheese posted a decent rise and continued the recovery seen since mid-July. Chinese demand increased again - especially for SMP.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Turners and Scales lead the daily gainers; Mainfreight and Kiwi Property are the biggest decliners.

WESTPAC'S $1.1B BOND ISSUE
Westpac NZ is borrowing $1.1 bln through an issue of five-year, fixed rate, senior, unsecured and unsubordinated bonds. They'll pay investors an interest rate of 4.337% per annum, after being priced at a margin of 0.85% over swap. The bonds will be unlisted.

MISLEADING?
Commerce Commission said it will file charges against Qantas-owned airline Jetstar over alleged misleading claims on compensation for flight delays and cancellations.

MORE CHEESE
Fonterra said today that it will spend $150 mln on a new cool store at its large Whareroa site in Taranaki where a fifth of Ronterra's production occurs. The 29,000 m2 site will allow it to expand cheese production.

EYES ON TOMORROW
Tomorrow will be dominated by the US Fed rate decisions. But we have an important (if late) release domestically, Q2 GDP. Consensus forecasts are that June economic activity will be up +0.3% from the same quarter a year ago. Variation from that may have wide implications.

JAPAN EXPORTS RISE AGAIN
Japanese exports rose +5.6% from a year ago in August, slowing sharply from a 10.2% rise in July and falling short of market forecasts of another 10% rise. But it was the ninth successive month of increased export shipments.

SWAP RATES AWAIT THE FED
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today ahead of tomorrow's US Fed decision. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is holding lower at 5.01%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 3.90%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps from yesterday at 2.05% and a new record low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.17% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.13% and up +6 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 3.65%. Their 2yr is now at 3.59%, so that curve is still positive by +6 bp.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in its late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is also essentially unchanged in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday trade up +0.7%. Hong Kong is on holiday but Shanghai back from holiday although little-changed. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. The S&P500 ended its Tuesday session on Wall Street barely changed again.

OIL UP
The oil price is up +50 USc from this time yesterday at just under US$71/bbl in the US, and now just under US$73.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STEADY
The carbon price is unchanged again at $61/NZU. Volumes traded are still light. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$7 at US$2573/oz but still near its record high.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has stayed up at 62 USc, little-changed. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 91.7 AUc. And against the euro we have risen +10 bps to 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 69.6.

BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is up +3.9% from this time yesterday, now at US$60,365. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».