A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; many key retail rate changes, houses that don't sell, NZGBs popular, Kiwibank raises expensive PPS funding, swaps fall, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ASB and Westpac both cut key rates. Interestingly ASB also raised its 4 and 5 year fixed rates. More details here. Bank of China also cut all their rates. And Unity Money has essentially matched the main bank rate cards. Co-operative Bank cuts came in late in the day too. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB, Westpac, and the Co-operative Bank also reduced their term deposit offers. Treasury cut it Kiwi Bond rates. Unity Money also cut rates. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

DIDN'T SELL, WITHDRAWN
The housing market is messy and lacks direction. More than 3000 residential properties a month are being taken off the market.

PPS - GOOD FOR FIVE YEARS, THEN A REVISED RATE
Kiwibank's $275 mln perpetual preference share (PPS) issue will be paying 7.38% p.a. for the first five years. After that, the rate is revised but the margin stays unchanged. These PPS will will count as additional tier 1 capital. As the Final Terms Sheet notes "In a liquidation of Kiwibank it is highly unlikely that there will be surplus assets available for the liquidator to pay any amount to Holders in respect of the PPS."

ENTHUSIASTIC BIDDING FOR HIGHER YIELDS
Investors piled into today's three NZ Government bond issues with 104 bids overall worth $1.261 bln for the $500 mln available. There was a small $25 mlm Inflation Indexed bond offered today too and that got $115 mln in bids. Yields rose, by between +15 and +25 bps. Except the yield for the IIB rose +40 bps. Details here.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. NZX50 lifts on Tourism Holds & Turners. SkyCity & Oceania dragged.

A FAST-GROWING COHORT
A government release revealed that more than 53,000 people currently live in retirement villages and the industry forecasts that close to 113,000 retirees will be wanting to live in this type of accommodation by 2048. (113,000 people currently live in Lower Hutt as a reference point.) More resident protections are on the way.

STEP ONE
Under pressure from the Government (to improve its returns), Pāmu Farms/Landcorp Farming has confirmed it will start opening pathways to farm ownership. The state-owned farmer is offering various contracts including herd-owning share milking, variable order sharemilking, and contract milking on four of its 44 dairy farms, as a start.

EXPORT SHRINKAGE
Exports from Japan shrank by -1.7% in September from the same month a year ago. It was another bij Japanese data miss because markets had forecast a +0.5% rise. Apart from the pandemic reversals, it was their biggests year-on-year fall since December 2019, and driven by fewer car exports (-9.7%) and machinery exports (-%).It was the first drop since November 2023, with sales of transport equipment declining 7.5%, weighed by motor vehicles (-9.2%) and cars (-9.7%). Also, semiconductor exports fell -10.1%.

WEAK EXPORT GROWTH
Meanwhile Singaporean exports rose +2.7% in September from a year ago, but this too was less than the +9.5% rise expected.

AUSSIE LABOUR MARKET EXPANDS
The Australian September labour market report saw jobs rise by +64,100 (their best since February) and far higher than the +25,000 expected. There was a very good rise in full-time jobs (+51,600) and also a +12,500 rise in part-time roles. Their jobless rate was steady at 4.1%. Along with their relatively high inflation (3.8%) this labour market strength may put the kibosh on a rate cut at the November 5 RBA rate review.

SWAP RATES FALL AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower again today still influenced by the CPI result. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is dowen -3 bps at 4.59%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.29%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 2.10%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp from this time yesterday at 4.46%. And the earlier RBNZ fix was at at 4.38% and down -2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.03% and unchanged from yesterday. Their 2yr is also holding at 3.94%, so that curve is stays positive by +9 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The NZX50 is now up +0.5% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.4% at its Thursday open. Hong Kong is up +1.9% at its open. Shanghai started +0.8% firmer at its open. Singapore is trading also up +0.7%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session up +0.5% on the S&P500.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price is unchanged from this time yesterday at just under US$71/bbl in the US, and just under US$75/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FIRMISH
The carbon price rose marginally today to $63/NZU. But that is its highest level since March 2024. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD AT NEW ATH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$16 from this time yesterday, now at US$2682/oz and a new all-time high.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at 60.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are up +20 bps at 55.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at 69.2.

BITCOIN'S RISES SLOW
The bitcoin price is up another +0.7% from this time yesterday, now at US$67,745. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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