Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society (NBS) trimmed its fixed rates today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ cuts some key TD rates but only to levels already held by their rivals. TSB cut short rates too. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
'A SOMBER RETURN TO REALITY'
Consumer confidence fell in October amid job security fears against the backdrop of interest rate cut flow through lag, the ANZ Roy Morgan survey says.
FHBs IN HOUSING MARKET WIDELY & IN DEPTH
It's steady as she goes for first home buyers as the market heads towards summer. Latest figures suggest about 5000 people a month are moving into a home of their own for the first time.
WHERE WE LIVE
StatsNZ released subnational population projections as at June 2024 today. They may not be quite as useful as usual because they are still based on the 2018 Census. But they do reveal that the locale with the youngest population is Otahuhu/Mangere in Auckland with a median age of 30.8 years. The oldest cohort is in the Coromandel where the median age is 55. More generally by region, the youngest area is Auckland where the median age is 36.1 years and the oldest is shared by Tasman, and the West Coast at 47 years. (Wellington is 38.0, Canterbury is 38.9.) The only locale that recorded a population decline was Waiheke Island (probably because the number of holiday houses is swelling). This data based on the 2023 Census won't be released until mid-2025.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. More losers than gainers today but the NZX50 is little-changed. Scales & Mainfreight up, a2Milk & Tower down.
FEWER ON JOBSEEKER BENEFITS
The number of work-ready people on JobSeeker benefits fell by -531 last week from the prior week, but up +10,700 from the same week a year ago. (The difference peaked at +15,350 in mid-July.)
WITHDRAWAL RATE STAYS VERY LOW
Over 7,500 people made early KiwiSaver withdrawals in September, tapping into over $176 mln for home ownership and financial hardship reasons. There are 3,368,000 KiwiSaver members now, up +47,000 from a year ago. Contribution were $10.6 bln in the past year. So the proportion of members making early withdrawals was 0.2%. And they took out 1.7% in total of one year's contributions. The average rate over the past ten years is also 1.7%.
SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower at the shorter end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 4.56%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.46%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 2.16%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps from yesterday at 4.49% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.47% and down -4 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20% and down -3 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is up at 4.07%, so that curve is now positive by only +13 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED & MINOR
The NZX50 is now up +0.1% in late Friday trade in very quiet trade. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.9% at its Friday open. Hong Kong is up +0.6% at its open. Shanghai started up a minor +0.1% at its open. Singapore is trading down -0.3%. Wall Street was up +0.2% on the S&P500 in their Thursday trade.
OIL LOWER
The oil price is down -US$1 from this time yesterday at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$74.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price marginally firmer today at $62.80/NZU. There has been normal volumes traded. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$6 from this time yesterday, now at US$2728/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged again at 90.5 AUc. And against the euro we are down -30 bps at 55.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down to 68.7.
BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is up +1.1% from this time yesterday, now at US$67,910. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.
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