Filled jobs fall by over 20,000 in past year

Economy / news

Latest Statistics NZ figures show that there's been no monthly jobs growth in any of the past six months - while the construction sector in particular is contracting substantially

29th Oct 24, 11:28am by David Hargreaves

The number of filled jobs in New Zealand is down by over 20,000 in the past year, according to the latest monthly figures from Statistics NZ.

According to the monthly employment indicators (MEI), the total of filled jobs as at the end of September stood at 2.35 million, down 0.9% on the same month a year ago.

Youth have borne the brunt of the big losses in filled job numbers over the past year, with the number of 15-29 year-olds in filled jobs down by about 29,000 compared with a year ago.

The figures for the September 2024 month were officially unchanged on a seasonally-adjusted basis from those in August. This means there's been no rise in the number of filled jobs in any of the past six months.

The August figures, reported by Stats NZ earlier this month, were originally reported to have grown slightly. However, they've now been revised down to 'flat'.

It's been a pattern this year that the monthly figures have initially tended to overstate the number of filled jobs, with downward revisions in subsequent months being very frequent.

The latest figures come ahead of the official unemployment figures to be released on Wednesday, November 6. The unemployment figures, as measured by the Stats NZ's Household Labour Force Survey, are expected to show another rise. The unemployment figure for the June 2024 quarter was 4.6%. The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is forecasting that this will have risen to 5.0% by September 2024.

And the latest monthly employment indicator figures - while compiled differently - would certainly support the view that unemployment has continued to rise.

ASB senior economist Mark Smith said the latest employment indicators show "that the unemployment rate could approach 5%".

"The soft economy and gloomy headlines point to further labour market softening. A front-loaded pace of OCR [Official Cash Rate] cuts is still needed to avoid labour market scarring," he said.

The latest figures show the construction sector, in particular to be contracting substantially.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) figures comparing September 2024 with September 2023 show that there are over 10,000 fewer construction jobs (5% fewer) now than compared with a year ago.

Other substantial sector drops were recorded in administrative and support services (over 7,000 fewer jobs), accommodation and food services (down over 6,000) and manufacturing (down over 5,700 jobs). Against this, health care and social assistance jobs were up 3.9% (more than 10,500 jobs).

Stats NZ said by region, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs in September 2024 compared with September 2023 were in:

Auckland – down 1.3% (10,463 jobs)
Wellington – down 1.1% (2,990 jobs)
Manawatū-Whanganui – down 1.1% (1,279 jobs)
Southland – down 2.0% (969 jobs)
Taranaki – down 1.7% (954 jobs).

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

30 Comments

by ikimpaul | 29th Oct 24, 11:39am 1730155144

Interesting - recent talk has been that Wellington as a city is dying because there are a high number of people losing their jobs yet Wellington had the lowest percentage decline in jobs.

by Let me be Frank | 29th Oct 24, 11:48am 1730155737

Lagging indicator....and not a very accurate one at that.

by IT GUY | 29th Oct 24, 12:22pm 1730157751

Wellington died ages ago so other regions the body is still warm

by Chairman Moa | 29th Oct 24, 12:52pm 1730159572

Meanwhile, there's talk of a jump in house price due to interest rate. The two factors just don't match up!

by ChrisOfNoFame | 29th Oct 24, 1:11pm 1730160708

They do match up perfectly ... once the 'haves' are 'have-nots' are factored in. Lookup the Cantillon effect.

by Jonny.Foe | 29th Oct 24, 2:07pm 1730164037

Yes, as Chris points out, there are several historical precedents. March 2009 to March 2010 was one. A less pronounced period from June 2011 to September 2012 as well.

by GoWokeGobroke | 29th Oct 24, 9:08pm 1730189324

@Chairman Moa - "Statistics New Zealand data, released on Tuesday, shows that the number of filled jobs has fallen by more than 20,000 (0.9%) in the past year. There has also been no monthly job growth in any of the past six months. Youth have bore the brunt of the decline in filled jobs, with the number of 15-29-year-olds in filled occupations falling by almost 29,000 compared to a year ago".

So, its the youth, 15-29yos that are bearing the brunt of job losses. The average age to buy a home in NZ is mid 30s.

15yos dont buy proprties. 15yos buy maccas & playstations. The two factors do match up.

by Jonny.Foe | 29th Oct 24, 1:10pm 1730160621

Yes, we have another 6 - 12 months of this baked in. The big question is whether our Govt will allow this to continue, or, even make it worse.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 29th Oct 24, 1:16pm 1730160996

Given the unemployed weren't likely to be big donors to this government, my guess is little will be done for 12 months or more.

by Jonny.Foe | 29th Oct 24, 1:31pm 1730161902

The kids of swing voters are currently trying to find a job for the summer...!

by Chairman Moa | 29th Oct 24, 1:43pm 1730162637

Will be just in time for the next election!

by Jonny.Foe | 29th Oct 24, 1:51pm 1730163098

I actually think this is the strategy. Scorched earth for a year or two, then unemployment reducing and house prices going up in time for the next election. It will probably work.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 29th Oct 24, 3:19pm 1730168369

And it may not.

Education & Health are still important to the electorate. Neither are going to be in great shape by then. (Friends who work in mental health - who call themselves little more than a MASH unit - are seeing patients turn up in the news. So expect law and order to be less than flash too.) Such sectors, once beaten down, take ages to build back up. Ho. Hum. We never learn.

by Jonny.Foe | 29th Oct 24, 3:56pm 1730170583

You may well be right. I just don't doubt the ability of well-funded political parties to shape the public discourse. Are the people hassling good folks on the street in need of mental health services, housing, and a purpose / job, or are they feckless individuals that need to be punished until they get a job and become model citizens?

by Let me be Frank | 29th Oct 24, 4:57pm 1730174255

Lol...those are the questions....the responses/answers may vary

by GoWokeGobroke | 29th Oct 24, 9:16pm 1730189773

@ Chrisofnofame - "Education & Health are still important to the electorate. Neither are going to be in great shape by then"

To be fair, neither of these industries were in great shape come the last election. Hence the change in government, as the majority finally held the government of the day to account that the minority just let slide with a bunch of scapegoats as excuses.

But your right about one thing though - it will take ages to build back up. In the meantime have patience.

by Jonny.Foe | 30th Oct 24, 6:47am 1730224065

Build back up my ass. That's not the plan at all.

by Chairman Moa | 29th Oct 24, 4:49pm 1730173783

At the moment, there is a safety valve for NZ unemployment, it's called "opportunities across the ditch". However, coming into 2025, the Federal Election may put a stop to this if Peter Dutton managed to claim the top spot.

by Let me be Frank | 29th Oct 24, 4:56pm 1730174165

Is Dutton advocating revoking CER?

by Chairman Moa | 29th Oct 24, 5:33pm 1730176422

He is known to dislike kiwis.

by GoWokeGobroke | 29th Oct 24, 9:34pm 1730190868

@ Chairman Moa - Every generation ends up having a brain drain of some sort. What's happening today is no exception of this, & it womt be the last brain drain that we have either. This is the current up & coming generations time for one.

Give them a few years to discover the grass ain't always greener on the other side, & you'll see a good number of these people return back to NZ with more experience within the next decade, or sooner still if another large scale pandemic occurs.

You'll also find a number of these people never actually intend on permanently being away from NZ, just a better pay overseas, meaning they can save up the deposit for a house easier, then eventually return back to NZ with further experiance which appeals to more employers for a higher wage or better job security, & the required deposit for a house in NZ. It's quite smart really.

My brother did this. Got the degree, but had no momey for a house deposit. On top of that, the jobs in NZ said "must have 3 years minimum experience". How's a graduate meant to get into the feild that requires experience, when no job gives them the chance to gain experience. So off overseas he goes, his wife too. Together they earned enough to not only live, but to save a decent chunk as well. After 3 years, back in the country, with both the experience & deposit required. Now they both have stable high paying positions in NZ, & a decent first home.

Ya gotta do what ya gotta do. Though I'll admit, it's a shame that NZ no longer recognizes it's degree holders as worth anything. I've worked with plenty of degree holders that just can't seem to get jobs relevant to their feild of qualification. Call centre supervisors who lead a small team of 10 should not be getting paid the same as or more than a nurse in this country. It's pretty whacked when it gets to that point, & does nothing to encourage the next generation to study anything specific when pay is considered so lousy.

by endlesslearner | 29th Oct 24, 2:14pm 1730164493

Many thanks for sharing this plot. Your plots are always so insightful and thought-provoking. I really appreciate the time and effort that go into them. Any chance you could extend this a few years before the GFC?

by Jonny.Foe | 29th Oct 24, 2:19pm 1730164769

sure, you can get back to 2004 with consistent data

by endlesslearner | 29th Oct 24, 2:43pm 1730166187

Many thanks. I highly appreciate it

by Here.for.the.c… | 29th Oct 24, 5:07pm 1730174864

I fear this is all according to plan given the media panic that was drummed up regarding full-employment driving inflation and leading to fruit rotting on trees. It seems quite clear that Orr and Luxon want a big reserve army of labour to keep NZ a low-wage economy with the profits flowing upwards to the rentiers. If it means you lose your job/business, well that's a sacrifice Orr is willing to make.

by WestieAJ | 29th Oct 24, 2:13pm 1730164385

Look a little closer. Focus on May to September in isolation. I choose May as the start date as that is when the RBNZ really pooped the bed by threatening to raise the OCR again.

Total filled jobs - 31000 over those 6 months. 30000 of those from the 15-35 age bracket.

Why do we hate young people so much? Luckily we still have Australia as a safety valve.

Australia, where the cash rate is still lower than us and they haven't cut at all yet.

by kir10 | 29th Oct 24, 3:00pm 1730167230

Why do we hate young people so much? It is either them, us or we can share the burden. Therefore we come first.

by kiwi_overseas | 29th Oct 24, 3:04pm 1730167497

It’s the governments own fault and their own policy choice.

They set the budget and the rise in unemployment is clearly tabled in the budget documents.

by lt84 | 30th Oct 24, 10:46am 1730238383

Shows how wrong it is to have a govt who only know the corporate world they don’t know how to create employment

by MikeM | 30th Oct 24, 10:48am 1730238506

Auckland's construction implosion is only just beginning to show up in the numbers. The worst is yet to come and unfortunately the government won't take notice until the worst arrives.