Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank and Heartland Bank cut fixed rates today. Details here. Heretaunga Building Society did too. All rates are here.
MORTGAGE TEST RATES FALLING
ASB and BNZ follow lead of New Zealand’s other major banks, cutting mortgage serviceability test rates.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society trimmed rates today. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
STABLE JOBS MARKET, OR IS IT?
StatsNZ released its monthly employment indicators today. They are based in income tax data filed by employers, so a comprehensive record of the number of people in work. These figures show that there's been no monthly jobs growth in any of the past six months - while the construction sector in particular is contracting substantially. Westpac's Michel Gordon says: "The Monthly Employment Indicator showed that the number of filled jobs was about flat in September. While that was slightly better than our expectation of a -0.2% fall, we note that this measure tends to be revised down for a few months after its initial release."
STABLE BUT A RECORD HIGH
For those who follow this, the RBNZ's currency intervention capacity (F5) held at $22.6 bln at the end of September and has been at this general level for three months now. Having noted that, we should also note its at an all-time high, despite the only-minor change.
MANAGING DECLINE
As snail-mail volumes atrophy, MBIE is readying revisions to NZ Post's service obligations. Five changes are proposed: 1. Reducing minimum delivery frequency from minimum three days per week in urban areas, to two days per week and minimum five days per week in rural areas, to three days per week, 2. reducing the minimum number of postal outlets from 880 to 500. Considering a glide down to a minimum of 400 over time, 3. providing for NZ Post to meet its requirement to extend its network in the form of delivering to cluster and community boxes for new addresses, 4. allowing NZ Post to convert existing delivery points into communal points at a rate of up to five percent per year, and 5. instead of a five-year period before the next Deed Review, suggesting the next Review be in three years. Including the option for an earlier Review for example if annual mail volumes fall below 120 million.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Serko traveling well, with Infratil & a2Milk. Tourism Holdings pulls back with Gentrack, Heartland drops further
FONTERRA LAUNCHES BIG BOND OFFER
Fonterra said it is offering up to $350,000,000 of unsubordinated, unsecured five year fixed rate bonds to institutional investors and to New Zealand retail investors. The offer opens today with an indicative margin range of 0.85 - 0.95% pa. The offer is expected to close on November 1, 2024. They will be listed and are expected to be assigned a long term credit rating of A- by S&P Global Ratings and A by Fitch Ratings.
LOWER FEES VIA A MAIN BANK
BNZ has launched Payap payments app with substantially lower merchant fees. Compatible with all major banks, and with low merchant fees, it promises a simpler, low-cost real time payments system linked to users' bank accounts.
22.2 MILLION COINS
The Reserve Bank has confirmed that the 10-cent coin will be the first circulating coin to feature the effigy of King Charles III in New Zealand, after announcing the effigy for NZ coins earlier this year. The central bank told interest.co.nz that a production order for 22.2 million coins had been placed for expected minting next year, although the RBNZ doesn’t know the exact minting date in 2025 yet. The first mintings of the other four NZ coin denominations with the new image are still likely to be in 2027, RBNZ Director of Money and Cash Ian Woolford said. Coins also don’t typically enter circulation until 2 years after production.
"SAME FISCAL DISCIPLINE"
Finance Minister Nicola Willis won’t say if the Reserve Bank’s high staff numbers will affect the central bank’s new five-year funding agreement with the Government next year. Interest.co.nz asked the Minister’s office last Thursday if Willis thought the 17.8% increase in staff numbers (+91 roles) at the Reserve Bank during the June-2024 year was justified and if it would impact the next five years of funding given the Government’s focus on slashing public expenditure. Willis said in a response on Friday that the RBNZ was “operationally independent” but would be subjected to the “same fiscal discipline as the rest of the public service” when she negotiated the bank’s new five-year funding agreement in the first half of next year.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 4.53%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.49%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp from Friday at 4.50% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.47% and unchanged from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27% and down -2 bps from this morning. Their 2yr is up at 4.13%, so that curve is now positive by +14 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED & MINOR
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened up +0.7%. Hong Kong is up +0.5% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is also down -0.2%. Wall Street closed its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +0.3%.
OIL STAYS DOWN
The oil price is little-changed from this morning at just on US$67.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$71.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price marginally softer today at $62.50/NZU. There has been solid volumes traded. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$8 from this morning, now at US$2751/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this morning's open, still at 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.9 AUc. And against the euro we are little-changed at 55.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 68.8.
BITCOIN UP AGAIN
The bitcoin price is up +1.7% from this morning's open, now at US$69,995. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%.
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