Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank has trimmed most of their term deposit rates today. Heartland Bank cut two popular rates (as bib AMP), And BNZ cut -35 bps from its Rapid Saver account to 4.20%. Update: Westpac has trimmed some short TD rates, but raised its 90 day rate by +20 bps to 4.40%. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HEADING IN A BETTER DIRECTION
Business confidence shot up another +5 points to its highest level in a decade, while expected own activity ticked up although it is still a net negative. More here.
THOSE WHO TOOK THE PLUNGE IN GOOD SHAPE NOW
First home buyers of 10 years ago are now sitting pretty. Our analysis shows that home owners who bought their first house a decade ago are now well placed to move up the property ladder.
HOUSE PRICES BARELY SUSTAINABLE
The RBNZ says despite house prices easing, purchasing a new house 'remains relatively unfavourable compared with long-term averages'. House prices are still 'around the top' of the Reserve Bank's estimated sustainable level.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Kathmandu & Tourism Holdings stage a recovery, a2Milk and NZX slip with EBOS & Spark
SHIFTING LOWER & SMALLER
Xero is seeing nearly a third of Kiwi small businesses are reducing their workforces, and says the country's small businesses are reporting continuing sales declines and slowing wages growth.
2900 ENTERPRISES EMPLOY HALF OF WORKERS
StatsNZ released some "business demographics" data today as at February 2024. Most of it recorded little-change. But they do define 'large enterprises' as those with 100 employees or more. There are 2900 of them. And those large businesses grew their workforces to 1,238,000, (up +2.6% in a year). These 2900 enterprises employ half of all employees in New Zealand.
MORE MILK
Fonterra said its local September milk collections were +4.9% ahead of the same month a years ago, +6.1% above last season. Meanwhile in Australia they are running +2.6% ahead of last season.
MORE MARKET STUDIES?
Consumer NZ has written to the Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs, urging him to direct the Commerce Commission to undertake a market study into New Zealand’s aviation sector.
MORE SUPPLY THAN DEMAND RAISES QUESTIONS
The World Gold Council said total gold demand in September (inclusive of OTC investment) rose +5% to a record for a third quarter. They say this strength was reflected in the gold price, which reached a series of new record highs during the quarter. The value of demand jumped +35% from a year earlier to exceed US$100 bln for the first time ever. But their same data reported lackluster volume demand. Total demand from the jewellery sector, investors, ETFs and industry was 990 tonnes in the quarter. Total supply other than from central bank selling was 1313 tonnes in the quarter. So the rising price wasn't being pushed by excess demand over supply. It's clearly something else.
MORE DEMAND
There was high demand for the $500 mln on offer in the three NZGB bond tenders today. $1.56 bln was bid, and only 28 bids of the 105 entered were successful. Yields were only marginally higher than at the prior offers two or four weeks ago. There is more than $1 bln in unsuccessful bids, looking for a home.
MORE VALUES EYED
NZ Post released its online shopping review for the September quarter today. They say tough economic conditions continue to influence shoppers’ spending patterns. Online shopping transactions continue to grow, but at a lower average spend each time, as shoppers look online for discounts and cheaper alternatives.
"WE ARE WATCHING YOU SGJ"
The Auditor-General has decided to inquire into the systems and processes that help Ministers to identify and manage conflicts of interest, with a particular focus on Ministerial decisions about which projects to include in the Fast-track Approvals Bill announced in October 2024. The terms of reference set out the background and scope for this work.
DEPOSIT AVERAGES
Households have average of $4,500 in their transaction accounts, $12,750 in savings accounts, and $88,600 in term deposits. These are averages, according to the RBNZ S46 data. Averages however do not reveal the dispersal.
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
Resource consents are underway for up to 300 new affordable, healthy, community-tailored homes helping to support home ownership are set to be built in eastern Porirua. The project was allocated $114.6 mln in government funding in 2022, managed by the Ministry for Pacific Peoples. That is $382,000 per home. The land in eastern Porirua is being leased into perpetuity from Ngāti Toa, aiding affordability.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed, maybe with a hint of softness. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 4.52%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.57%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps from yesterday, now at 4.56% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.50% and up +5 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29% and up +5 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is up +8 bps at 4.17%, so that curve is now less positive, by +12 bps.
EQUITIES REMAIN MIXED & MINOR
The NZX50 is down -0.1% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened down -0.6%. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.4%. Singapore is down -0.9%. Wall Street closed its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.3%.
OIL FIRMS
The oil price is up +US$1 from this time yesterday, now just over US$68.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$72.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STAYS IN RANGE
The carbon price unchanged today at $63/NZU in quite light trade. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD STAYS HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$3 from this time yesterday, now at US$2784/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday, now at 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 91 AUc. And against the euro we are also little-changed at 55.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is at 68.7 and holding.
BITCOIN UP FASTER
The bitcoin price is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday, now at US$72,351. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.
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