What happened Wednesday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no retail rate changes, rents stable, jobless rate rises, pay trimmed, dairy prices rise, Govt subsidises meat marketing campaign, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

6th Nov 24, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are none here either. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FLATLINING
The national median rent was unchanged at $600/week in September and has been holding at this level since the beginning of the year. The main flatlining of rents are in the main centers, in Auckland, Tauranga and Wellington City. Bu they are rising in Hamilton and Dunedin.

LESS THAN EXPECTED
The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the September quarter, its highest since December 2020 but a smaller than the 5.0% rise expected. The participation rate slipped and more young people quitting the labour force. Wage growth is moderating broadly as expected. It is starting to look like a GFC redux.

PAY TRIMMED
Average weekly earnings data shows that wage inflation died in the September quarter with year-on-year gains falling to +2.5% compared to the June +5.2% equivalent. That is a fast fall because they fell -0.4% to $3108.60/week. (That's the seasonally adjusted level. The actual level is $3095.50/week.)

DAIRY PRICES TURN VERY POSITIVE
Today's full dairy auction will have analysts reaching for their pencils. It was a good one, with overall prices rising +4.8% in USD terms, up +6.2% in NZD terms. That takes them to their best level since late 2022. The gains were widespread, led by butter's +8.3% jump. Demand out of China is the extra push this market got, and it could well bring upside to farm-gate payout forecasts. In the background, animal health concerns in both the US and EU, and weak domestic raw milk prices in China, are driving lower production expectations globally, just when New Zealand production is in an expansion state.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATES
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. EBOS, The Warehouse Group, and Infratil all rose, balanced out by falls from Meridian Energy, Hallenstein Glassons, and Contact Energy

BNZ BUYS BLINKPAY
BNZ has bought fintech BlinkPay. An early mover in open banking, BlinkPay enables fast payments directly from a customer's bank account to a merchant's bank account. Aside from BNZ, BlinkPay's also already working with ANZ, ASB and Westpac and will continue to do so. Co-founder Adrian Smith will be BlinkPay's CEO. BNZ says the financial details of the deal are confidential.

MARKET POSITIONING PRIORITY
The Government said it will "co-invest" (=subsidises) $8 mln into the next phase of the ‘Taste Pure Nature’ campaign that will position New Zealand beef and lamb as "the highest-quality red meats of choice for Chinese consumers".

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down another -1 bp at 4.46%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up another +2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.65%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.12%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.65% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.54% and down -3 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.40% and up +9 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is up +10 bps at 4.27%, so that curve is now less positive, by +13 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.3% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a +1.4% continuing recovery. Hong Kong is down -1.0% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore is up +0.2%. Wall Street was up +1.2% on the S&P500 in Tuesday trade, ahead of the US Presidential Election results.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price is little-changed from yesterday, still just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$75/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STAYS FIRM
The carbon price is little-changed today, still at $63.50/NZU in modest trade. But that is still the highest level in almost 8 months, since mid-March. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$15 from yesterday at this time, now at US$2749/oz.

NZD SOFTISH AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 55.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down a bit less than -10 bps at 68.6.

BITCOIN JUMPS
The bitcoin price has risen +4.8% from this time yesterday, now at US$71,197. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.7%.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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59 Comments

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Nov 24, 4:25pm 1730863512

Wage inflation died in Q3

The effects of job insecurity are certainly far and wide. We still have to endure a cost of living crisis and for the many there is now no relief in sight until their fixed mortgages roll over to lower rates. There is much discussion and debate being had about how low rates will actually go this time around. Longer term rates are starting to rise again.

This is what happens to a country that thought it could prosper selling overpriced real estate to each other at ever higher prices until it all popped.

by Pa1nter | 6th Nov 24, 6:45pm 1730871912

Is it really though? You're making it sound like any recession has housing as a root cause.

Germany is a country with lower rates of home ownership, high investment in renewables and manufacturing, and their economy is faring about as badly (their unemployment is worse).

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Nov 24, 7:11pm 1730873460

You're making it sound like any recession has housing as a root cause

I'm unsure how you could derive that.

by cjmain | 6th Nov 24, 4:19pm 1730863148

BNZ BUYS BLINKPAY,

will this be a trend of banks buying up (and slowing down) any threats to their business?

by meh | 6th Nov 24, 8:39pm 1730878763

That's all the tech giants, financial institutions, and multinational corporations have been doing for decades.

Then the economists and politicians continue with the dogma of needing more competition.

My debit card already allows me to pay from my account to the merchant's account.

by Te Kooti | 6th Nov 24, 4:28pm 1730863710

Betting markets have Trump at >90% now.

He has taken Iowa by 10%, the same State the media were pushing Harris as winning by a landslide only this past Monday.

He has taken black & hispanic votes in record numbers - a total rejection of the Democrats economic and social policies and a complete humiliation for 90% of the worlds media who refused to challenge her and who willfully misrepresented the actual polling.

by J.C. | 6th Nov 24, 4:34pm 1730864052

We could see some of the brand-name pollsters be humiliated by the prediction markets. Time to semi-retire. This could be a very big win for the legitimacy of a use case of the blockchain / crypto industry.

by Te Kooti | 6th Nov 24, 4:41pm 1730864499

It's not over, she may pull it off - though unlikely.

Maybe it's just me, but I hate being told what to think and I hate being lied to. If centre left are the best choice for the economy then I will vote for them.

I can be trusted with the truth.

by HouseMouse | 6th Nov 24, 4:48pm 1730864900

KiwiBuild was one of the biggest fibs in recent memory

by J.C. | 6th Nov 24, 4:52pm 1730865176

Maybe it's just me, but I hate being told what to think and I hate being lied to.

We need more thinking and attitude of the same ilk. But we live in a tribal society. Questioning the wisdom of the prevailing ruling elite can make you an outcast.

by Te Kooti | 6th Nov 24, 4:56pm 1730865377

Agreed.

In 2020 Biden had a 25% lead over Trump in <30's voting, that gap has fallen to 8% in 2024. A seismic shift in voting with inflation decimating that demographic. How could this not have been picked up in polling? The media need to take a look at themselves. They are either incompetent or biased to the point of irrelevance.

by kiwikidsnz | 6th Nov 24, 5:24pm 1730867092

"The media need to take a look at themselves. They are either incompetent or biased to the point of irrelevance."

There's plenty of evidence to support a cojoint hypothesis.

https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/dirty-politics-ipsos-pollsters-confes…

https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/the-australians-make-it-official-labo…

by EdwardD | 6th Nov 24, 5:56pm 1730868990

Our media use the CNN links for their news (Democrats). That would be like going to FOX for the news links.

by Foxglove. | 6th Nov 24, 6:14pm 1730870093

The first priority of the author, of let’s say the news item, is too often what angle will advance their profile and hence career, or more bluntly their fame. Then the first priority of the editorial people is, out of that material, what will generate the most captive headlines. The sad part about it is that it works and that is because nowadays folk lap it up with ready access to their phones, IPads or whatever. Successful propaganda relies on swamping the truth and successful propaganda sells well, regret to say. There is just too much bumf flying around and folk are saturated with it and are too lax and apathetic to think about anything at all in depth.

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Nov 24, 6:32pm 1730871175

Well said Foxglove

And it can be close at hand...

The big problem is that the MSM are all tapped into 'making money' in this System. They therefore don't diss it. If pushed, they fiercely don't diss it.

And the System failed to account properly; accounted in a keystroked proxy called money. And the System is up against Limits. The Elite tried to hang on - from Reagan/Thatcher/Douglas here, on - to the increasing detriment of first the poor, now the middle class, next the lower upper.

Yes, the pi--ed-off voted - presuming Trump wins - for a member of the 1%. But he doesn't act or speak like one, and he's the only alternative to the Blob. This is the Brexit one-finger, and for the same reason.

Interestingly, it's odds-on he doesn't live out the term, and Musk.... is dangerous on many levels.

by Foxglove. | 6th Nov 24, 7:00pm 1730872802

PDK. Final paragraph. Oddly, if not eerily, it wandered into my mind that they haven’t lost a president from “natural causes” since Harding and that “inkling” was formed by the concern attached to Reagan, his elderliness at that time. There it is.

by J.C. | 6th Nov 24, 6:35pm 1730871300

Matt Taibbi thinks that if the election results come close to holding, a lot of careers are going to end. News directors and party officials alike are going to wonder exactly what it wins them to have on-air spokespeople calling all of Florida an “extreme right-wing fascist state.”

by Te Kooti | 6th Nov 24, 7:33pm 1730874827

This election was the democrats to lose and they managed to do just that. They hid Bidens cognitive decline as they already realised Harris was a weak candidate & swapped him out when they could hide it no longer. They circumvented due process in installing Harris and then set about bullying and insulting any voting demographic who dared not support her. They relied on celebrities instead of policies and the President called half the country trash.

I actually think Trump wasn't a strong candidate, but he was smart enough to build a team with much wider appeal.

by Foxglove. | 6th Nov 24, 7:46pm 1730875595

In the beginning Biden, in the primaries for 2020, was initially down and out. Then the Goats realised all of the other contenders, including Harris were unelectable. So Biden was resurrected and Harris enlisted, as bw pointed out on here at the time, in the manner of “whatever it takes.”Biden was never good for more than one term but his ego, and even more probably his spouse, wouldn’t let go. And all the time Harris remained unelectable, despite a highly soluble upswing on her nomination. The Dems demonstrate total stuff ups. Firstly the complacency and carelessness of Clinton. Secondly Biden should have statesmanly guaranteed only one term and in that four years, the Dems produce a candidate that was electable. Incredible really. A decrepit, flawed and convicted candidate for the Republicans, has been handed the election on a plate,

by Te Kooti | 6th Nov 24, 8:21pm 1730877671

Change is healthy. The Dems will have to move back to the centre and find both policies and a stronger candidate for the next election. The process of regeneration is healthy. They need to move away from the Obama's, I don't like that they are still so infuential, I was a big fan of his but his time is over.

Be under no mistake, Trump is going to make unpopular decisions both domestically and globally.

by Foxglove. | 6th Nov 24, 8:31pm 1730878263

Agreed. But let’s just hope then, that such decisions are of no more consequence than being only unpopular.

by agnostium | 6th Nov 24, 8:59pm 1730879947

His winning is of more consequence than anything he does going forward.

He has debased the status of the President of the world's greatest democracy (by greatest I mean most powerful).

He is a convicted felon, an adjudicated rapist, a man of no morals. People who value democracy from around the world will look at the US and whatever esteem and respect they had for it a bastion of democracy is gone. He has normalised lying and cheating and cheap insults and bullying and rambling incoherance as befitting of a national leader for the world's most important democracy. Other's will follow suit and people will say well if the leader of world's greatest democracy can be like that then it's fine.

First time round it had novelty value, this time round we've reached the end of democratic age and entered the realm of the tech bro and the mega-rich oligarchs.

The parallels with the key moments of previous empire's decline is uncanny. Most people who are part of an empire that fell did not get better off as a consequence.

by kiwikidsnz | 6th Nov 24, 9:10pm 1730880653

Perhaps the majority of the USA think they've elected the leader & Gov't who best represents themselves...?

by agnostium | 6th Nov 24, 10:19pm 1730884774

Yes, I agree, they have, that's my point.

by Blackdog | 6th Nov 24, 8:52pm 1730879555

a team and a succession plan. Vance Gabbard 28

by EdwardD | 6th Nov 24, 5:34pm 1730867655

That's what I'm thinking also. He had my vote.

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Nov 24, 5:38pm 1730867913

90% of the world's media are peddling a disproven narrative.

Here's P.J.O'Rourke (book: How the Hell did this happen) writing in 2016, after the first Trump win:

Chapter 30: The Revolt against the Elites .'..the revolt against the elites targets all preeminence's; political elites, business elites, media elites, institutional elites and, kind reader, you. You're reading a book.

The MSM avoided the angst, and even more, the reason for the angst (it ain't going away).

by Palmtree08 | 6th Nov 24, 6:42pm 1730871743

Weird how one persons elite is anothers "swamp drainer"? Be interesting how four years of the Thiel/Musk party will develop in United Gilead.

by J.C. | 6th Nov 24, 4:29pm 1730863767

The Government said it will "co-invest" (=subsidises) $8 mln into the next phase of the ‘Taste Pure Nature’ campaign that will position New Zealand beef and lamb as "the highest-quality red meats of choice for Chinese consumers".

Should govts be investing in market expansion / branding campaigns? Chances are that the investment will get lost in the game of mates and the outcomes will be overstated based on some selective data about top-of-funnel over actual commercial strategy. Would be good if the govt could focus in protecting the national brand. For ex, a distributor of NZ beef in Asia packages pork sourced from India, Russia, Aussie under the brand and they do nothing.

by J.C. | 6th Nov 24, 5:13pm 1730866394

US 10Y up to 4.451%.

Sweet mother of God. Should mean lower house prices for Americans.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-US10Y/

by Te Kooti | 6th Nov 24, 6:34pm 1730871268

That's the 30y, the 10y is down 4bp to 4.23% and the US$ is stronger.

Are you interviewing for CNN?

by J.C. | 6th Nov 24, 6:37pm 1730871446

No it's not.

US30Y - https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-US30Y/

by Te Kooti | 6th Nov 24, 6:40pm 1730871604

Actually you're right, 10y is 4.40%. A bond run was just shown on tv with it at 4.23%

by Justa comment | 6th Nov 24, 7:18pm 1730873895

and ours was 4.6% last time I looked

by ChrisOfNoFame | 6th Nov 24, 5:51pm 1730868667

Hmm. People still not spending. Unemployment stats, like always, looking backwards. Still not looking great. Might see a small uptick for Christmas?

by Yvil | 6th Nov 24, 5:53pm 1730868802

So, it looks like the Americans prefer a convicted criminal to lead their country over a multicultural smart female.

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Nov 24, 6:38pm 1730871519

No, Yvil. They've seen how the Elite live. There are no shootings at Elite schools, no Elite on the subway. The bottom end know what the deal is - and have said so.

That O'Rourke book (How the Hell did this Happen, 2016, Grove Press) is - despite being funny and libertarian-angled - worth reading. It told us this was likely, back then.

I only made one bet on the election - but if he wins, I win it. And you know I'm not the type to support him...

by HouseMouse | 6th Nov 24, 6:52pm 1730872366

Well put!

by dollar_bill | 6th Nov 24, 7:46pm 1730875600

so hilarious. grifted either way. at least the MAGA crowd throw in some pejorative and purgatory to make it feel real, I guess.

by Yvil | 6th Nov 24, 7:52pm 1730875929

"No, Yvil. They've seen how the Elite live. There are no shootings at Elite schools, no Elite on the subway. The bottom end know what the deal is - and have said so."

So, that's your justification for people voting in a right wing government led by a guy who likes to flaunt his money, get donations from the uber rich (E Musk), and is pro gun ? "They see how the elite live" so they vote them in, that's your logic PDK ?

by kiwikidsnz | 6th Nov 24, 8:13pm 1730877235

As much as I would prefer not to say it, he's probably not wrong. Look at the increasingly visible loathing of the entitled, holier than thou, we know best NZ chattering classes who usually exist on the taxpayers welfare not their own market value

Its not necessarily his personal"justification": PDK is reflecting the USA zeitgeist today - & probably ANZ tomorrow

by Foxglove. | 6th Nov 24, 8:39pm 1730878775

Oh dear that’s gauche once more. No justification in there at all, quite the opposite in fact. One good thing about the somewhat clumsy English language though is its capacity to convey cynicism, sarcasm, and at that, all very sardonically to boot. Would be beneficial to go back and read what was written, and then dwell on it a bit.

by Yvil | 6th Nov 24, 8:38pm 1730878725

Well, then I didn't understand PDK's post. But I'm happy for you Foxglove to explain why the hate of the elite would lead the working class to vote for them ? I don't get that.

by kiwikidsnz | 6th Nov 24, 8:45pm 1730879114

I don't get that either, perhaps mistakenly I understood that PDK was saying quite the opposite.

by Foxglove. | 6th Nov 24, 9:04pm 1730880268

Because the motivation is entirely negative. The United States political scene is about as convoluted, corrupt and chronic that any science fiction author could dream up. And this is where the scary bit enters. The masses, the hoi polloi, the plebs or whatever find themselves powerless and the only way they see their one vote as counting is as a protest, by voting against what body is incumbent, before them. Of course that is unfortunately for them, unlikely to offer much difference between frying pan and fire. Also of great influence though, is the activity in those upper echelons of society which filters down from the so called elite. The USA political system encourages and cultivates patronage. The Republicans now assume the presidency and control of both houses. That means official appointments and contracts will be forthcoming to those in support. In other words the snouts will have the taps to their trough turned on and that flow in turn, eventually gets to let’s say the lesser elite all the way down through society and at any level of that, people are only too happy to take their cut. To sum up. It’s a bloody awful scene.

by Yvil | 6th Nov 24, 9:11pm 1730880664

Thanks for your reply Foxglove, it's clear and I fully agree with it. I don't doubt at all, that the vote for Trump is a vote against the establishment from the lower socio-economic class. It is not what PDK said though, or if he attempted to say the above, he worded it very poorly.

by Foxglove. | 6th Nov 24, 9:32pm 1730881976

It’s very sad for sure, if you follow my line of reasoning, that that lower socio-economic class would see to resort to thinking that there was something in it for them that might eventually dribble their way. My wife and I lived and worked there about twenty years ago. We enjoyed it immensely, particularly the people, our neighbours and the welcoming environment we were in which was proudly blue collar. Our last return visit three years ago will sadly be our last. All that we enjoyed has changed markedly, adversely. We didn’t feel comfortable any longer. From that miniscule perspective, the outlook for the USA, as a nation and its people, is disconcerting.

by interesting1234 | 7th Nov 24, 8:22am 1730920964

As you allude, people now vote people out instead of voting others in based on their beliefs in the proposed policies. All exacerbated by the ever shortening attention span of younger generations thanks to the likes of social media polarising algorithms and the leap in individualism coupled with the slow loss of open mindedness in the west. Humans aren't rational creatures en masse at the best of times, and sadly with the decrease in emphasis on, and value of education, I feel this will only continue to slide.

by Yvil | 7th Nov 24, 8:41am 1730922067

"My wife and I lived and worked there about twenty years ago"

Interesting, I lived and met my wife in the USA over 20 years ago as well, in San Francisco. She was a Kiwi back then, that's why I live in NZ today. We also think SF used to be a great place, but it has gone severely downhill after the GFC. Where did you live ?

by kiwikidsnz | 6th Nov 24, 5:58pm 1730869097

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for October 2024 shows a significant swing in support with the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition up 7% points to 48% now with a narrow lead over the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 47% (down 8% points).

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/national-support-down-significantly-…

by HouseMouse | 6th Nov 24, 6:56pm 1730872583

Interesting!

the Gnats desperately need the housing market to turn around, but not much they can do really. Open the floodgates for wealthy foreign investors?

The fact is, the people need more than austerity. And that doesn’t necessarily mean a massive Keynesian lolly scramble

by kiwikidsnz | 6th Nov 24, 7:10pm 1730873410

RM attributed the significant change to the Navy boat sinking & the Dunedin hospital rethink. Both not really directly attributable to the Coalition, more their response to unexpected & undisclosed events so not sure I agree with RM

by agnostium | 6th Nov 24, 9:11pm 1730880709

Thanks for sharing. This is what stood out to me

Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 61.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First, almost double the 31.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.

Other ages and genders are reasonably evenly split. I wonder why old men are happier with the coalition than everybody else 🤔

by kiwikidsnz | 6th Nov 24, 9:57pm 1730883460

The obverse: Child bearing age women are also much more in favour of the opposition, have been consistent all year.

"Younger women aged 18-49 heavily favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 61% almost double the 32% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition. Support for Labour, at 36%, and the Maori Party, at 13.5%, are higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed."

by agnostium | 6th Nov 24, 10:39pm 1730885991

Missed that but fairly easy to understand why younger women are more aligned to Labour/Greens/Maori.

1 women are paid less and poorer and more disadvantaged than old men so are more likely to be aligned with parties that focus on addressing these type of inequality for personal benefit.

2 Because they have more direct experience of inequality they are more likely to empathise with other groups that are also disadvantaged and happy to support them too even if it doesn't benefit them directly.

3 women volunteer more and spend more time working to address social justice issues than men so it makes sense they would align with parties that focus on social justice in general.

Why do old men disproportionally support the coalition?

by J.C. | 6th Nov 24, 6:09pm 1730869768

I like, I share, I vote: Mapping the dynamic system of political marketing.

“It is important to bear in mind that political campaigns are developed by the same people who sell toothpaste and cars”

– Noam Chomsky

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296324005186

by IT GUY | 6th Nov 24, 7:02pm 1730872938

Bias

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/despite-deep-state-censorship-blob…

sad but true why many have stopped reading or listening

by Yvil | 6th Nov 24, 7:48pm 1730875690

by Zwifter | 6th Nov 24, 10:09am

Landslide for Kamala, she will take all seven swing states.

That prediction is not going to age well, Zwifter.

by IT GUY | 6th Nov 24, 9:04pm 1730880254

Never work with elections or weather systems!

A Man's Got to Know His Limitations.