A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; truckometer and concrete data lackluster, retail sees a small lift, 20,000 new work visas in October, fines & jail time, realtors warned, swaps stable, NZD lifts, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

BUSINESS LENDING RATE REDUCTIONS
ANZ has reduced three key business lending interest rates by -15 bps, taking their Business Banking Indicator rate down to 12.75%, their Agri Current account down to 10.95%, and their Business Overdraft down to 14.75%. (Household borrowers just don't know how lucky they are.)

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A SMALL LIFT
The October ANZ Truckometer monitoring describes a soft economy with just the faintest hint of a rise.

THE CONCRETE POUR SLOWS
The volume of ready-mixed concrete has fallen steadily over the past two years and is now back to levels first achieved in late 2015. The concentration of work is in the three major urban areas. In Q3-2024 there was a good rise in Christchurch, but more atrophy in Wellington from the same quarter a year ago. And there was a faster fall in Auckland metro as well. Provincial areas (that is, all outside the three big metros) poured their lowest combined volumes in seven years.

A TURN IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION?
Retail spending turned up in October in an unexpected change with its biggest rise in months. Monthly retail spending has seen its first year-on-year increase for the first time since February. But consumers were spending less on each transaction. The hospitality industry had its biggest monthly rise since November 2023.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATES
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Gentrack, Freightways, and Skellerup posted gains, offset by declines from A2 Milk, Stride Property Group, The Warehouse Group and Tower

MORE WORK VISAS
Just under 20,000 work visas approved in October. So the number of overseas workers in NZ at the end of October was up almost +11% year-on-year.

'PROLONGED FAILURES'
After self-reporting, Quest Insurance Group has copped an RBNZ warning for failing to maintain its minimum non-life solvency margin and statutory fund for its life insurance business.

FINE FOR USUARY
Eagle M.A.N Group (trading as Eagle MAN) has been ordered to pay a pecuniary penalty of $200,000 in the Christchurch High Court for providing high-cost loans which breached multiple aspects of the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act. It was the Commerce Commission’s first case enforcing rules applying to high-cost lenders. Eagle MAN is owned by Noli Alea of Christchurch.

JAIL FOR FRAUD
An Upper Hutt man was sent to jail for nearly four years when he appeared for sentence on fraud charges committed in what the judge called a time of national crisis. Shane Douglas McNally appeared for sentence on November 8, after pleading guilty at an earlier hearing.

'GEN-AI GOT IT WRONG' IS NO EXCUSE
The Registrar of real estate conduct, the Real Estate Authority has issued guidance for real estate professionals on the safe and responsible use of generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) when providing real estate agency services. They reminded licensees that they will always remain accountable for the real estate services they provide, irrespective of what tools and technologies they use to deliver their services. House-for-sale ad writing has been taken over by AI.

AUSSIE CONSUMER SENTIMENT TURNS UP
Although it has been negative for nearly three years, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index in Australia rose in November to its highest level in two-and-a-half years as the outlook on the economy and finances finally turned optimistic.

AUSSIE BUSINESS SENTIMENT TURNS UP, MOSTLY
Australia’s NAB business confidence index climbed into positive territory in October 2024, the first positive reading in three months and reaching its highest level since January 2023. There were notable improvements across most industries, except construction and retail. However those surveyed said their business condistions were largely unchanged.

SWAP RATES STILL SETTLED
Wholesale swap rates are probably a tad firmer at the short end today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps again at 4.45%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp from this time yesterday to 4.62%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp to just under 2.11%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.75% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.67% and up +3 bps from Yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34% and unchanged from yesterday (the NY bond market was closed for their holiday). Their 2yr is up at 4.28%, so that curve is now less positive, now by +6 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is little-changed in Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a +0.7% recovery. Hong Kong is down -0.5% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is down -0.6%. Wall Street traded lightly on their Veteran's Day holiday, to be up +0.1% in Monday trade

OIL DOWN
The oil price is down -US$2 from this time yesterday, now just on US$68/bbl in the US, and just under US$72/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
The carbon price is unchanged again today, in modest volumes, at $63.50/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FALLS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$47 from this time yesterday, now at US$2624/oz.

NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we up +20 bps at 90.8 AUc. And against the euro we are up +40 bps to 56 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now up at 68.9.

BITCOIN SHOOTS HIGHER AGAIN
The bitcoin price has risen a strong +9.3% from this morning, now at US$88,707. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been extreme at just under +/- 5.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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