Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the world's dominant financial market is closed today, so this will be a thin report. Wall Street will be back in a limited capacity tomorrow (their Friday).
In the US, a record 80 mln people are expected to travel at least 100 kms this holiday weekend.
But the Canadians are not on their Thanksgiving holiday break. They have it on the second Monday in October, so it has already been for them.
And new data shows on average, Canadians work 33.5 hours per week. But payroll earnings are rising, up +5.2% in September from a year ago. That is a faster pace than recently. The growth in average weekly earnings can reflect a range of factors, including changes in wages, composition of employment, and hours worked.
The Bank of Korea cut its base rate by -25 bps yesterday to 3.0% during its November meeting. It was a cut not expected and was the second straight month of rate reductions, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since October 2022.
In China, the CCP top leadership is apparently very concerned about 'social stability' risks. A top national official has been out telling local officials to strengthen “risk prevention and control at the source”. He said that “it is necessary to rely on technology for police force and combat effectiveness, deeply mine the "rich mine" of legal data, strengthen data identification, screening, analysis and evaluation, and find ways to identify and screen out potential risks". They don't want to fix the problem, rather quash it.
In Hong Kong, prices for private residences stopped falling in October. The smallest units, 40m2 and smaller, saw a +4.3% rise from September, ending a long decline that started in 2019. But those are still -7.8% lower than a year ago, and down -27% since mid 2019. The broader market is down -9.9% in the year. The interruption of the decline was due to the cancellation of some stamp duties and the opening up the market to mainland Chinese buyers
The EU sentiment surveys were broadly stable in November.
In Australia, private capital investment rose +1.1% in Q3-2023. And that was despite a -1.9% drop in the mining sector. And you can see that in the distribution by State. New South Wales led the way with a +3.6% rise followed by Victoria's +3.2% gain. The largest falls were in South Australia (-11%) and the Northern Territory (-17%). WA was down too, but a lesser -1.3%. Large building projects involving large scale upgrades in the manufacturing sector, and large data centre projects, were the drivers. Many companies in this survey say they plan an investment surge in 2025. Westpac described the trend as a "once in a generation structural change".
As part of a last-minute set of deals to get most of its agenda passed in preparation for their 2025 federal election, their government has accepted a Green Party inspired compromise to split the RBA board in two, one for rate setting, and another for governance. The Green's goal was to force the RBA to cut rates, killing the RBA's independence, but it is not clear this aspect was achieved.
Container freight rates are down another -2% last week from the week before. Outbound China to the USWC saw the largest fall, down -5% in the week. Bulk cargo rates are down -7% in a week. That now puts them -34% lower than a year ago, but a year ago was when they suddenly spiked.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.24% and unchanged from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive, but only by +1 bp. Their 1-5 curve inversion is inverted by -21 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is unchanged at -40 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.42% and up +2 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.06%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps from this time yesterday at 4.48% and back to where it was six weeks ago.
Wall Street is closed today for their holiday. But they will open tomorrow for some brief trading. Overnight European markets were firmish with London up +0.1% and Frankfurt up +0.8%. Tokyo ended its Thursday up +0.6%. Hong Kong however was down -1.2% and Shanghai fell -0.4%. Singapore ended up +0.8%. The ASX200 was up +0.4%. But the NZX50 fell a rather sharp -1.2%.
The price of gold will start today at US$2642/oz and virtually unchanged, down just -US$1 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are little-changed, still just over US$68.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$72.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.9 USc and down -20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we down -30 bps at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68.4, and down -20 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,260 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.
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81 Comments
The CCP seeks to quash perceived problems arising in the nation’s society. Maybe even squash.Should have the requisite apparatus readily available. The immense population has been controlled by the regime for 75 odd years. Very few now would remember anything being different. That’s life.
You could probably say the same for our society, basking in a post WW2 afterglow.
Save the planet, consume sustainably!
https://www.globalresearch.ca/a-timeline-of-cia-atrocities/5348804
'The CIA trains the dictator’s security apparatus to crack down on the traditional enemies of big business, using interrogation, torture and murder. The victims are said to be “communists,” but almost always they are just peasants, liberals, moderates, labor union leaders, political opponents and advocates of free speech and democracy. Widespread human rights abuses follow.'
:)
I'm not sure how legit the site is but the CIA has certainly messed up a lot of countries and is a source of global conflict in itself (eg Assad in Syria, Taliban in Afghanistan).
Is there any correlation which party (R/D) was in power during those operations?
Every incident checks out.
No - seems to be irrespective. Which is interesting...
As Putin told Jeffrey Sachs, no matter who gets elected, men in dark suits and blue ties come and tell them what the agenda is. I had a strange boarding school classmate in the USA who became Deputy Director in charge of wet work, so can believe anything about the agency. From a military family, joined what he called "the company" after stints as a marine in Viet Nam. Was at the Moscow embassy for years.
Big biz, big government. Flip sides of the same bent out of shape coin.
excellent piece. No way to ensure it's complete accuracy of course, but much of what it contains is easily verified through other sources. The bit about the Whitlam government in Australia is interesting. does anyone know what the ultimatum given to the GG was? I also wondered if they've fiddle in NZ's political history? Reading this I'd think very likely.
NZ = Norm Kirk - I remember the rumours.
Cheers. i don't recall the rumours but that article identifying his legacy is impressive. Certainly a man to represent all Kiwis. Its a pity today's politicians are not more like him.
Makes you wonder though, how did Lange get away with it? He was rabidly anti-American. I don't think Helen Clark was a great fan of them either, but she was probably too self serving and easily manipulated.
Lange capitulated to the French.
Lots of bombast and the fastest off-the-cuff humour - but moral fortitude?
At least Luxy is his own man....oh wait..
One thing i really enjoy on this site is the humour, somewhat cynical at times (No shit! Really?), often sarcastic but always entertaining.
Despite the seriousness the world is increasingly finding itself in, being able to see a funny or ironic aspect to much of it is always a good thing.
Keep it up team. The diversity of views and arguments is fantastic. I believe there is always more to learn, and most often from people you don't agree with. Always be prepared to explain why to those who ask. For each of us our view is unique, drawn from our education, experience, culture and upbringing. Disagreement fosters interesting discussions.
Lange the lawyer knew how to advocate. He was personally uncertain about the NZ’s nuclear stance but he brilliantly fulfilled the mandate entrusted in him by the people. He was not rabidly anti American across the board. Some individual Americans though obviously displeased him a lot.I was on the same flight to LAX where was undertaking a speaking tour in the 90s. Had about a half hour talk with him and his daughter before going onboard. He was enthusiastic and optimistic about the prospect, much about the USA and people to admire and he was sure he was going to enjoy himself. Which I am pretty sure, from what he subsequently wrote, he did.
Be aware of wikipedia bias - the following doesn't necessarily indicate Michel is above board of course - but if his article is about the CIA then they are likely to protect themselves.
The perennial problem: Who watches the Watcher?
The Founder of Wikipedia reveals to Glenn Greenwald that he’s shocked at the bias and that CIA and FBI computers have been used to edit Wikipedia and that the intelligence agencies pay off “the most influential people to push their agendas” or they just develop their own talent within the [intelligence] community.
This is the problem: create something great, and powerful people can take it away, unless checks and balances stop them. But what stops the FBI and CIA — Who do the intelligence agents with guns fear?
..
Speaking to Greenwald, Wikipedia founder Larry Sanger said that Wikipedia “used to be kind of anti-establishment” but “between 2005 and 2012 or so, there was this very definite shift to Wikipedia becoming an establishment mouthpiece. It was amazing. I never would’ve guessed that in 2001,” when he first founded the site, Sanger said.
Wikipedia became just another version of the left-wing media:
“By the time Trump became President it was almost as bad as it is now”, Sanger said. “No encyclopedia to my knowledge has been as biased as Wikipedia is now. It’s over the top.” The “rank and file Wikipedians” take their cues from CNN, MSNBC and the New York Times, and had declared “80% of the major news sources on the right to be unreliable. Officially It’s in the policy. A lot of people don’t realize that, but it’s true,” Sanger remarked.
What do the Deep State want you to believe?
Sanger noted that Wikipedia had become an instrument of “control” for the CIA, FBI, and other US intel agencies. “We do have evidence that, as early as 2008, that CIA and FBI computers were used to edit Wikipedia,” Sanger said. “Do you think that they stopped doing that back then?”
Wikipedia became just another version of the left-wing media
That's just parroting the predominant narrative. Which means one has been fooled by the propaganda.
The majority of media is owned by a few big corporations or billionaires, predominantly right wing.
Pay attention and you soon see how words and language is used to shape everyone's thinking.
Just look at RBNZ and economist speak over the years. New terms and using different words is pulling the wool over everyone's eyes.
The masses aren't educated to think for themselves. Repeat it enough in the media and the masses will believe.
Shows both how easy it is for people to buy into things and why scammers are so successful.
Name one of that (CIA) list which didn't happen, DC?
You can't.
https://www.hrw.org/topic/terrorism/counterterrorism/cia-activities
https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP74B00415R000400170054-7.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_CIA_controversies
https://www.scribd.com/document/33610357/History-of-CIA-Atrocities
Journalism should be about truths, sources are worth contemplating of course, but so too are those who diss the source - Bernays was American, remember. Has a lot to answer for. I just went looking for what I knew existed and linked to a clear version of the list. I do hope you weren't inferring the list was incorrect.
We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the US public believes is false. CIA Director William Casey, 1981
I see Putin is talking about the new president having superior intellect…. After a deal
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/28/putin-threatens-kyiv-ores…
I'm curious - from the article - "Russian president says ‘intelligent’ US president-elect will find solution to Ukraine war " - why can't Putin find a solution to the war.
(yes I know Putin is just playing a game).
There's only one outcome that doesn't result in Putin end his days in prison, or worse. Being able to spin some sort of victory.
Except that Putin would undoubtedly consider himself to be of a superior intellect. Trump though has proven himself to be an entirely unconventional prospect politically, domestically and globally. That inherent unpredictability is always going to be something of challenge to his counterparts.
He's no mug - intellectually clearly superior to both Trump and Biden, and a lot besides. Forget the psychopath bit - they're all that if they've risen to the top of the heap (it isn't done with empathy).
https://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/08/putins-thesis-ra…
There's an easier way to access it but can't find it at present. Merkel's thesis was also a good read - it's good to know where these folk are coming from.
Massaging the Trump ego will get you anywhere/everywhere. Any world leader not showing up with a bottle of lavender oil for the exalted one, will get the cold shoulder.
Frankincense even better. And now we switch over for a word or two from Monty Python
I have a very good friend in Rome called biggus dickus.
He has a wife you know
Biggus? The guy married to Incontinentia Buttocks?
more inflation...I was just advised a 41.7% increase in Microsoft 365 monthly subscription ($12 to $17)
apparently so i can have the AI CoPilot I never requested
Obscene. I'll be taking another look at OpenOffice.
I don't want CoPilot and I don't use it. MS should unbundle CoPilot and charge for it separately.
I use LibreOffice - unless you need absolute compatibility with MS Office (ie you are sharing documents - even then you can run into problems) is adequate for most uses. Anything I need to send to someone I usually send as a PDF.
Open office is good.
That AI CoPilot that as far as I am aware you get 60 "AI Credits" per month so you're effectively limited in how many times you can use it. On our family subscription, only the parent account can use the AI not any of the family member accounts.
But never fear, you can purchase additional AI credits if you run out.
I only use Excel and use the free online version just to alter a template and then save a copy. Stays in the cloud but you can download a copy and print it out. I'm not paying for it these days, more than paid for it with Office 95 and that cost like $1000 back in the day.
What are people's thoughts on this?
High-income workers lose unjustified dismissal claim rights under new policy (link)
Bizarre. There is a problem of employees not performing and unable to be 'moved' on, but why the $180k threshold? Perhaps a start point, eventually allowing it to cover very salary range as it 'was so 'so successful'. That would be my bet.
aims to enhance labour market flexibility
They want to lower the salaries of these positions of high impact leadership?
They don't want to train them to be better people?
They're getting pushback against their firing of public servants based on cost rather than performance?
Some in these positions are now able to question the performance, processes, leadership etc of those above them?
But how dumb are we that we elect some of these people to govern us, and can't move them on?
Sounds like it's an attempt by the government to put in place rules that would allow them to eviscerate the senior civil service on a policy whim.
Having worked with dinosaurs in the civil service who I wish could just be sacked and moved on I kind of like the idea but having just watched Simeon literally pass evidence free, harmful transport policy that will fuck us over for years to come I think that there needs to be some sort of check and balances on ministerial powers, given we have no second chamber. Long term civil servants at least have the experience to be bale to put forward a case to Minister's and have it heard when they make up nonsense policies.
If you see what Trump is doing in the US, basically sacking any civil servant that he thinks does not agree with his extreme policies then this is probably the inspiration.
TLDR - like it in principle, don't support it in practice as it will be abused for short-term political gain.
Senior civil service? There are 8250 public servants earning between 130k and 160k per year. A lot of them love the monkey branch climb up The Terrace. Find the ones you don't like but think they are all that. Tempt them with a new role (where they can't do too much damage)a new contract and a pay bump. Wait a few months, then sorry it's not working out. See you later. Way cheaper than buying them out of their current role/contract.
It's the thin end of the wedge to "employment at will" (of the employer, as USA) instead of "employment as of right" (of the employee, as NZ, UK, Oz)
Having worked my entire 50year career in the private sector, 80% in multinationals with no excuses for failure I know how demanding & soul destroying that culture can be. But it does deliver results, no bad thing to be attempted in the public sector.
From your link it seems to assume the "Peter Principle" is universal "You’ve got someone in the workforce who is maybe quite skilled, got a good attitude, but if you push them up to that next leadership level into management, you know, if it doesn’t work out and they aren’t a good fit, this allows you to move them on.” It's more common that legends in their own mind ceaselessly promote themselves & then blame their staff when things go wrong.
pretty good description of the public service. One issue I've found is when someone is very good at their job and is promoted, but can't handle the new position the preference is either to move them sideways to places where they can't do much if any damage or push them out the door. Why not just revert them back to their previous role? Surely their skills and experience are valuable to the organisation?
True their role may have been filled by someone else, but have two doing it until a better position comes up to move one onto. And the person may prefer to leave rather than stay, but surely better value would be gained by trying to retain them?
Speaking of strange ideas...the Amazonification of ANZ supermarket workers?
Can workers say no to controversial headsets? | RNZ News
It reminds me of Country Calendars radio controlled sheepdog https://youtu.be/7Ssve_4swe0?si=SVrt71et7xL97Wc7
Personally known a few good people in corporate who were dismissed because of a narcissist leader and their only recourse was a wrongful dismissal case.
I can see this policy could cause more harm than good.
It happens in the public service too. But constructive dismissal - making their life hell so they quit. I have personal experience of this - 1 of 6 people targeted by a manager who brooked no dissent.
There's a lot of that. People who are right by virtue of their position and pay packet. Proving them wrong can be career harming too.
I've recently managed to put into word a small aphorism re public service; If you're employed third or more lines back from the front lines then your contribution to the function that service is funded for is likely inversely proportionate to the size of your salary. Oh and that contribution almost never starts at 1 (range of 1 - 0), more likely 0.6 - 0.8, and declines from there.
So it's irrelevant whether it's public or private service. Many don't want their authority questioned, and many in power may be less qualified than their minions.
This government wants to run as a corporate not a public service.
Autralia just cannot help themselves. They just had a formal review of the RBA which led to Lowe leaving, now they've gone back again further whittled away it's independence. They are an incredibly bureaucratic nanny state propped up by resources. I think we Kiwi's have rose-tinted glases when it comes to Australia. Holes and houses, that's it. If you think our economy is property obsessed, they take it to another dimension. Labour are blaming the RBA for holding rates higher than need be when they are the ones creating inflation.
Rose tinted? You only just worked that out mate? It’s entertaining listening to all the wankers mouthing off about how they’re sick of it here and they’re moving to Australia. It’s like a threat that if things don’t improve in NZ quick smart then off they go to Oz. I say good news, see ya later, please don’t come back.
Like all the people after we introduced the 39% top tax bracket saying their "doctor friend" was going to bugger off to Australia.......where the top tax rate for the same income threshold amount is 45% and you have a Medicare levy.
"...bureaucratic nanny state" ?
the latest virtue signalling dog whistle (no penalties for young people or parents who flout the rules, just ask Musk for the $50M fine)
Kids under 16 to be banned from social media after Senate passes world-first laws - ABC News
Labour just pulled a "Misinformation Bill" which would have pretty much ended free speech. Social Media under 16 I'm not sure, there can be a lot of bullying.
Are you saying free speech should be allowed to use misinformation and/or propagate it?
Don't we have a big enough issue with education as it is?
Are you saying only the Govt podium of truth should be allowed to use misinformation and/or propagate it?
Interesting that the RBA proposal is being put forward by the Greens. If the Greens did the same here would the RBNZ haters support them or still too woke?
IIRC the Oz Treasurer has the power to override the RBA, it's never been used.
The RBA Model proposed is not too dissimilar to the model the RBNZ currentlyruns under (which changed under Labour in 2018)
In NZ there are 2 arms of the RBNZ
1. The monetary policy committee which advises the RBNZ governor on rate settings
2.The rest of the RBNZ which runs under a Governance Board
The board has no influence on rate settings their only role is to review the performance of the Monetary Policy Committee and its members and they make recommendations to the Minister of Finance on whom should be appointed to the Monetary Policy Committee.
Personally I don't believe the RBA needs to change in any format - its policy settings have underpinned Australia's economy strongly for 40 years, but there is global precedent for the model proposed.
"..The board...make recommendations...on whom should be appointed to the Monetary Policy Committee"
this is the key. NZ Labour changed the structure & then stacked the board with several people who had no economic training / experience.
Correction - the wrong kind of experience. No macro experience. Good in their fields, just not the one required to be good at being a MPC member.
And now we have four RBNZ employees (for whom groupthink is an unknown word) and just 3 external appointments (some with deep connections into big business).
Isn't life grand!
I don't know what they're worried about, we've been running at a much higher rate than they are without any problem according to our politicians:
Keir Starmer speaks after new UK net migration peak of 906,000
Keir Starmer admitted he must bring down immigration today after shock figures showed the annual record has been smashed again.
One of the problems is that they need working age immigrants to support their aging population. How many workers per retiree are they down to now?
Or you could make the ageing population with excess capital draw down on that capital to support themselves in retirement. But they wouldn't like that very much and neither would their potential heirs.
Yes, it's not the free ride some make out it to be: Not enough teachers for next year: School principals warn of staffing shortage
Principals told RNZ they needed more staff than ever thanks to the arrival of nearly 40,000 children of foreign workers over the past two financial years and, for primary schools, increases in classroom release time for teachers next year.
Okay, but we're running at a higher rate than they are. We had 3mil in the 1980's and that included the baby boomers.
We now have over 5mil. How come the additional 2mil isn't enough to care for / support our elderly and we're still running a high rate of immigration?
Or maybe, just maybe, it's nothing to do with caring for elderly at all?
It is about increasing the value of property of all types for tax-free capital gains that flow to the top 10%.
I suspect the following article (4 days old) has something to do with it. Not that the Daily Mail article wanted to report this, I came across the article via ZH. (Like in the US, some in the UK are concerned about the number of immigrants)
A petition demanding a new general election in the United Kingdom has surpassed 2 million signatures, piling pressure on Keir Starmer’s Labour government, whose popularity has plummeted since it gained power in July.
The petition, launched late last week on the U.K. parliament’s website, calls for another public vote due to the left-wing government having “gone back up on the promises it laid out in the lead-up to the last election.”
Parliament is obliged to debate all petitions that surpass 100,000 signatures.
Haha
Getting dry , a welcome 5 mm tomorrow hopefully.
Switched to monthly recording on my weather station and we have had 75mm so far this month, most of it was early in the month in one hit. I'm out watering the garden on a daily basis now. Not a drop all this week so far. 5mm is a bit of a waste of time due to evaporation its gone in a flash.
Just at Auckland Domestic airport...(Absolutely diabolical hasn't been updated for 50 years),trying to spot anyone under 50 apart from service staff?
.
You lost me at Siemone
Fair enough. I deleted when I realized that it was paywalled.
There's a big delay in domestic this morning which won't help
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/535158/flights-cancelled-amid-huge-…
Are you trying to get somewhere for Thanksgiving?
Turkey?
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