A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; ASB cuts rates, building consents bottom out, car sales lower, bird flu arrives; floating rate mortgages return, retail gains modest, swaps & NZD on hold

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ASB cut most key fixed rates today, but just matching their main rivals. Details here. First Credit Union cut its 1 & 2 year fixed rates. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB also cut some short TD rates today. And Rabobank cut savings rates, and TD rates for terms 15 months and less. Banks now offer barely any rates over 5% and these are clearly on the way out. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A MUCH LOWER TRACK
The building consent data released today wasn't great but it wasn't disastrous either. However it did reinforce how far this sector has fallen. In the year to October, a third fewer new homes were consented annually compared to two years ago. And the annual value of new residential construction being consented is down -$5 bln over the last two years. Some observers think "it has found its base".

CAR SALES TRACK LOWER TOO
Car sales were lower too. In the year to November, new passenger car sales ran at the same rate they did ten years ago, down -26% from the peak in June 2023. Used imports are in a longer decline. They too are back to ten-years-ago levels, but are down -37% from their February 2018 peak. Interestingly, sales of hybrid SUVs are where the current action is, accounting for 60% of new car sales, the highest ever, apart from the unnatural peak at the end of 2023 when taxpayer incentives screwed the scrum.

BIRD FLU HAS ARRIVED
Biosecurity New Zealand has placed strict movement controls on a commercial rural Otago egg farm, after testing confirmed a high pathogenic strain of avian influenza in chickens that has likely developed from interactions with local waterfowl and wild birds. "Tests from the Mainland Poultry managed farm have identified a high pathogenic H7N6 subtype of avian influenza. While it is not the H5N1 type circulating among wildlife around the world that has caused concern, we are taking the find seriously," said MPI.

THE RETURN OF FLOATING RATE MORTGAGES?
Reserve Bank figures show a +$1.58 bln rise in bank mortgage stock in October the most in three years. And the amounts on floating mortgage rates rose by the most in over 13 years.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Precinct Properties, Mainfreight, SkyTV, and EBOS Group lead the gainers with Oceania Healthcare, Investore Property, Argosy, and Vista Group all declining.

PROFIT HALVES
Major vehicle finance house MTF has issued its Annual Report. It is only on page 31 do you find that their Net Profit after Tax halved in 2024 from 2023.

IF YOU USE IT, IT'S GOOD. BUT IF YOU ARE DISENGAGED YOUR VIEW ISN'T GREAT
The FMA has released what it says is its first annual combined survey of confidence in New Zealand’s financial markets. They report it slipped to 57% in 2024, down from 68% in 2023. Confidence in these financial markets is strongest amongst those more satisfied and engaged with their personal financial circumstance. In contrast, confidence levels in New Zealand’s financial markets are lower amongst those reporting they never have enough to save and are always trying to make ends meet. More here.

MORE BANK WHOLESALE FUNDRAISING
Kiwibank said today that it wants to raise at least $100 mln in 5 year unsecured, unsubordinated fixed rate bonds. It hasn't limited itself to how much more it will take. The margin indication is a bit over 1% from the five year swap rate, and at present settings it would pay about 4.75% for this new wholesale funding. Retail investors can apply, but the bonds won't be listed.

BOTTOMING?
Our weekly tracking shows that since the beginning of October there has been very little change in the amount of commercial property advertised for lease. It has stopped expanding. But there are exceptions. Hamilton in particular is getting +10% more 'For Lease' opportunities every 90 days, the only main center like this. At the other end of the spectrum, Auckland Central and Manukau have been seeing falls in listed premises consistently each week for the past three months. The North Shore has too, but over a shorter time frame.

UP ON NORMAL BUT NOT UP ON LAST YEAR
Worldline said its network transactions show 2024 Black Friday matched the "good" 2023 numbers but that was after the volume of transactions rose +2.8% and the average value per transaction fell -2.8%. That average value this year was $83.50. Wellington and Hamilton had small increases, Auckland and Christchurch small decreases in total transaction values.

AUSSIE DATA SHOWS MODEST GAINS
There was quite a bit of data released in Australia today. First, their building consent data for October rose but only because of a catchup in apartment consents. It was a big jump. Consents for houses continued to slip. But they have had rises consistently since the start of the year. On the retail sales front, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia saw good gains, but retail sales gains in NSW and WA were weak. On the factory front, their internationally-benchmarked November PMI contracted at a much slower pace in November, hardly at all, which counts as an improvement.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today to start the week although there are hints of softness. Our chart below will record the final positions. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged from this morning at 4.37%. The China 10 year bond rate is down more than -2 bps at 2.02%. We make that its lowest ever. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is holding at 4.47% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.41% and down -8 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22% and down another -2 bps. Their 2yr is down at 4.19%, so that positive curve is now +4 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The NZX50 has risen +0.2% so far to start its week. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.4% at their open. Hong Kong is up +1.1% at its open and Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is starting up +0.5%. S&P500 futures trade suggests Wall Street will open its post-holiday trading up a minor +0.2%.

OIL SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The oil price is down -50 USc from this morning, now at US$68/bbl in the US, and US$72/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STILL ESSENTIALLY ON HOLD
The carbon price is little-changed today at US$63.45/NZU today. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$14 from this morning, now at US$2635/oz.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is -30 bps lower than where we opened this morning, back to 92 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 90.8 AUc. And against the euro we are still at 56 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.4 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price has risen to US$97,880 and up +0.5% from where we opened this morning. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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