A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; just a whimper of retail rate changes, GDP dives, rental sector under stress, business sentiment high, Fed's hawkish cut echoes, swaps stable, NZD dumped, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). This is our final full 4pm update for 2024. See below. Any others will be on as-needed basis.

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Kookmin Bank has cut its floating rate -50 bps to 8.50%. (Recall it didn't move right after November 27). All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac have cut their 9 month rate by -10 bps to 4.90%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

LESS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, "WORST SINCE 1991"
Revised economic data shows New Zealand only entered recession in March 2024. But it was still in recession in September with GDP falling at an annual rate of -1% in that latest quarter. It is a result much worse than analysts had expected. There have been notable exchange rate (down a full -1c), equity market (down -0.9%), and bond market repercussions (up +8 bps) from the miss. See below. Following this data, BNZ economists are calling for a -50 bps OCR rate cut in February, and have lowered their expectation the OCR will eventually settle under 3% in this cycle. More here.

TOO MANY RENTAL PROPERTIES AVAILABLE
Trade Me Property says residential landlords may need to reduce their asking rents due to an oversupply of rental stock.

STARLINK'S DIRECT TO CELLPHONE SERVICE IS LAUNCHED
One NZ's Starlink satellite service has launched, but only on Samsung and Oppo phones for now. That is because Apple iPhones didn't make the launch date for One NZ's Starlink Space TXT service. And competition for Musk's Starlink service is on the way, and in a geopolitical way too.

'THANK GOODNESS'
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows companies reporting a significant increase in activity - but there was a 'surprising' rise in expected costs as well.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Here is a summary of how the NZX equity market traded today, as at 3pm. 

FARMERS GET COMPENSATION
The recent Otago bird flu outbreak has brought Government action, including compensation for farmers who lost stock in the required cull. Cabinet has approved new taxpayer funding of $20 mln to enable MPI to meet unbudgeted ongoing expenses associated with the H7N6 response including rigorous scientific testing of samples at the enhanced PC3 laboratory at Wallaceville in Wellington, ongoing surveillance, and to cover compensation costs. (It is not clear whether Act cabinet ministers raised any spending questions, but the minister who announced it is an Act MP.)

FAST WEALTH EXPANSION
In Australia, household wealth rose +AU$1.517 tln to AU$16.9 tln as at September 2024 from the same annual period a year ago. That is a +9.9% rise. Housing accounted for +AU$851 bln of the rise, Super funds +AU$443 bln, bank accounts +AU$119 bln, and shares & equity another +AU$186 bln. Household financial liabilities only rose +AU$173 bln in the same period. All this data comes from their National Accounts released today. It is also an interesting counterpoint to their Federal Government spending rise (+AU$58 bln) and deficit "blowout" (+AU$42 bln).

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again at the short end today, but likely higher at the long end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp yesterday at 4.25%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +9 bps from this time yesterday at 4.42%. The China 10 year bond rate has risen +2 bps to just under 1.75%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.63% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.54% and down -1 bps (set before the GDP result). The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.51% and up +12 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is now just under 4.34%, so that positive curve is now +17 bps.

EQUITIES RETREAT
The NZX50 has fallen -0.9% in late trade today. And the ASX200 is down -1.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Thursday trade down -1.1%. Hong Kong is also down -1.1% and Shanghai is down -0,6%. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. The S&P500 fell -2.9% on Wall Street in its Wednesday trade after the Fed decision. So the NZX50 fall doesn't look too extreme in the perspective of all these other markets.

OIL SOFTISH AGAIN
The oil price is down -50 USc from this time yesterday, now at US$69.50/bbl in the US, and now just on US$73/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STALLS
The carbon price has been very quiet today, still at NZ$63/NZU with little activity. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIGHTLY SOFTER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$40 from this time yesterday, now at US$2610/oz.

NZD RETREATS FAST
The Kiwi dollar is down -130 bps from this time yesterday, now at 56.2 USc in a resounding thud post the GDP result in combination with the US "hawkish fall". Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 90.4 AUc. And against the euro we are down -50 bps at 54.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 66.8 and down nearly -80 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price has slipped to US$99,736 and down -5.3% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.9%.

SUMMER HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
Today is the final day our Auckland office is open in 2024. Of course, we will report the news all the way though the holiday break, but our offices won't re-open fully until Monday, January 20, 2025. It will be our holiday service until then. That will include a Holiday Briefing most days, and the related podcast. Our daily and weekly free email newsletters are also taking a break until January 20, 2025 but our databases and rate tables will continue to be updated as changes are reported. We wish all our readers a fun, safe, and relaxing break.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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