A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, DCS set for July launch, house prices fall in Auckland, building permits weak, eyes on dairy auction, swaps stable, NZD steady, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). It is a tricky job preparing this summary today because many things are up in the air.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

DEPOSITOR COMPENSATION SCHEME LAUNCH APPEARS SET FOR JULY 1
Deposit taker regulations and a Deposit Takers Act commencement order have been issued ahead of the planned mid-year introduction of the Depositor Compensation Scheme. Provisions coming into force on April 1 relate to Reserve Bank information gathering powers. Provisions coming into force on July 1 enable or support the scheme's operation. The regulations, which come into force on July 1, prescribe matters relating to the scope and operation of the scheme. The scheme will provide protection of up to $100,000 per eligible depositor, per licensed bank, building society, credit union and deposit taking finance company, in the event of deposit taker failure.

LOWER PRICES ARE WHAT SELLS
Actual selling prices are down and new listings and stock levels rose as 2025 got underway for Barfoot & Thompson, Auckland's dominant (40%) realtor.The average selling price plunged -$133,000 in January to $1,053,400 and the median price was down -$50,000 to $950,000 as their sales turned to the cheaper end of what is available.

TOWNHOUSE WEAKNESS SHOWS UP IN DECEMBER
Building permits for dwellings totaled 2,478 in December, a -5.6% drop from November and more than reversing the November rise. This was largely due to a big drop in building consents for townhouses which were down -12% from the same month in 2023. But standing back a little, the overall December result indicates consent levels are now at a floor because they have been at the same annualised level for seven months now.

WORSE FOR OTHER BUILDING
Infometrics reported that non-residential building in December recorded its weakest month since May 2020 (seasonally adjusted), with the $507 mln total value of consents down -22% from December 2023.

NZX50 STABLE
Here are the key changes to know about in the New Zealand equity market. As at 3pm, the NZX50 is largely unchanged, with rises by Skellerup, THL, Mercury, and a FPH bounce. But Gentrack, Oceania & Summerset dominated the falls

SURE TO BE A GOOD ONE
Many eyes will be on tomorrow's GDT dairy auction. It is hard to know what the threats of new US tariffs and retaliation will do to this market. Futures traders think prices will rise in USD, with the WMP price firming +1.5% from the last Pulse event last week, and the SMP price up much more, up +4.5%. Time will tell. But in any case the falling NZD will mean healthy rises in NZD equivalents. How much of the rising USD in combo with the falling NZD flows through to farmgate prices depends on existing hedging contracts. Details of 2024 hedging policy is here.

EYES ON THE JOBLESS RATE
Also tomorrow, we will get the Q4 labour market data. That is expected to show that unemployment rose to 5.1% from 4.8% in Q3-2024. A material variance will have financial market implications. A 5.1% result would be the highest since Q4-2020 and the early pandemic pressures (quickly reversed with a fast public policy response). Prior to that, it will be the highest since Q4-2016.

TARIFF WAR UPDATES
On the global diplomatic front, Canada, Mexico and China are showing they know how to respond to the Trump bluster. Today Canada agree to to many things to "fight fentaynal", almost all of which are existing programs, apart from appointing a symbolic "Fentanyl Czar". Yesterday, Mexico promised "10,000 troops to the border". Both brought a tariff threat delay. The Mexican promise is actually 5000 less troops than what they deployed after their Biden negotiations. China is responding with similar ego-centered responses which just reinforce existing arrangements. Playing Trump is just too easy. Trump's problem is that he believes his own propaganda at the shallowest of levels, so is a sucker for bumper-sticker responses. Yes border crossings will decrease, but they were sharply down well before he took office and "took action". A new "Missions Accomplished" claim is imminent (remember George W ?). Smoke & mirrors.

SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally lower lower today on global forces so keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -4 bps on Monday at 3.89%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.47%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at 1.64% while they are CNY holiday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.62% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.56% and down -4 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.56% and up +4 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is now at 4.26%, so that positive curve is a little steeper at +30 bps.

EQUITIES BET TRUMP WILL LOSE
The NZX50 is unchanged. F&P Healthcare has had a modest recovery. The ASX200 is up +0.4% at its open. Tokyo is up +1.7% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is up +2.5%, but Shanghai remains closed, although returns tomorrow. Singapore has opened little-changed. Wall Street ended today's trade lower with the S&P500 down -0.8% in fear of reignited inflation and losses from the Tariff War.

OIL DIPS
The oil price is down -US$1 from this time yesterday now just over US$72.50/bbl in the US, and down -50 USc at US$75.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STAYS IN RANGE
The carbon price is still within its tight range, today still at NZ$63/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES TO ATH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$39 from this time yesterday, now at US$2820/oz and a new record high.

NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar has fallen -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 55.2 USc on a rising USD. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 90.6 AUc. But against the euro we are up +20 bps at 54.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 66.4 and down -10 bps from where we were yesterday.

BITCOIN RECOVERS SHARPLY
The bitcoin price has risen +9.1% today from this time yesterday, now at US$101,494. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been extreme at just over +/- 5.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».