Barfoot & Thompson's average selling price plunges $133k in January as stock levels rise

Property / news

Prices down and stock levels rising as 2025 gets underway for Barfoot & Thompson

4th Feb 25, 10:39am by Greg Ninness

Barfoot & Thompson has started 2025 with a surge in new listings and total stock for sale, while selling prices headed lower.

The real estate agency, which is the biggest in the Auckland market, received 1361 new listings in January, the highest number for the month since 2021.

Sales also pushed higher, with 700 sales becoming unconditional in January, the highest number for the month since 2022.

However, the total stock of properties for sale was also up sharply, rising to 5383. That's a 14% compared to January last year, putting total stock for sale at its highest level for the month of January since 2011.

The rise in stock was accompanied by a fall in selling prices.

Barfoot's average selling price in January was $1,053,446, down $133,016 (-11.2%) compared to December, which was the lowest it has been in any month of the year since October 2020.

January's median selling price of $950,000 was down $50,000 (-5%) compared to December..

The combination of lower prices and rising stock levels adds further strength to the growing mountain of evidence the 2025 housing market will be strongly in buyers' favour.

"The focus of buyers in January was the lower price segments of the market with 56 per cent of our sales in the month taking place in the under $1 million market," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.

"Our average number of monthly sales in the under $1 million market during 2024 was 51 per cent," he said.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

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181 Comments

by The_Golem | 4th Feb 25, 10:44am 1738619080

I'd predict 200 comments.

by Toye | 4th Feb 25, 10:46am 1738619160

300

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 11:57am 1738623436

I hope the Spruikers got a good nights sleep, its going to be a very tough year.

by starrider | 4th Feb 25, 12:44pm 1738626267

Might as well put a massive neon sign up in Auckland: OVERCOOKED OVERSTOCK SALE - all offers considered.

"putting total stock for sale at its highest level for the month of January since 2011.

The rise in stock was accompanied by a fall in selling prices."

by Time Lord | 4th Feb 25, 12:57pm 1738627075

They'll be dreaming about bottoms again

by tothepoint | 4th Feb 25, 12:27pm 1738625227

I’ll predict further falls in interest rates …..

TTP

by SomeKiwiFounder | 4th Feb 25, 2:02pm 1738630946

Brave prediction given the global economic environment…

SKF

by RickStrauss | 4th Feb 25, 12:27pm 1738625241

Comment inventory rising even as demand falls.

by huttman | 4th Feb 25, 11:19am 1738621176

popcorn, sweet popcorn! anyone need any popcorn?

by Toye | 4th Feb 25, 11:24am 1738621478

One please

by interesting1234 | 4th Feb 25, 2:11pm 1738631460

Extra butter

by Dgm | 4th Feb 25, 1:56pm 1738630572

The crash has begun, might need more than 🍿

by agnostium | 4th Feb 25, 7:07pm 1738649275

Yesterday I was advised this wasn't a crash anymore because prices had only been falling a little bit after the massive falls.

So I guess now we're possibly starting the 2nd crash despite the previous crash never actually stopping.

by Dgm | 4th Feb 25, 1:55pm 1738630518

The crash has begun, volume comments is irrelevant

by Averageman | 5th Feb 25, 7:12am 1738692737

Ponzi unwinding. Unfortunaly it has fueled wage and price spiral up and ultimately the sqm rate to build with it.

by CrispyKahawai | 4th Feb 25, 10:45am 1738619125

That’s a big drop. Good.

by Dgm | 4th Feb 25, 1:57pm 1738630657

The tap has just started to trickle, ✋️ till it starts to pour...

by Toye | 4th Feb 25, 10:45am 1738619152

Spruik that.

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 10:49am 1738619379

average selling price has nothing to do with median house prices.

Highest number of sales since 2022, buyers coming to the market.

by Toye | 4th Feb 25, 10:52am 1738619561

I can feel you seething from here.

If you read the article you'd note the median is down 50k as well.

Sales don't matter if they are lower in proportion to new listings.

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 10:57am 1738619837

If you actually read the article you will see you misrepresent what it says.

If you read the article you'd note the median is down 50k as well.

Should be corrected to

If you read the article you'd note the median sale price is down 50k as well.

Median sales, not median price.

January's median selling price of $950,000 was down $50,000 (-5%) compared to December.

That only indicates people are buying below median properties.

As usual you are twisting data to fit your narrative.

by Toye | 4th Feb 25, 11:00am 1738620005

Actually if anything these prices are still artificially too high as if sales were at normal levels (ala 2015 to 2019) much more price discovery would be happening and the median even lower.

By the way HPI for December looked abysmal too if that is your fallback.

I know you are mad that your equity is being beaten up but gotta call a spade a spade.

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 11:13am 1738620792

What makes you think 2015 to 2019 are normal levels?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 4th Feb 25, 11:40am 1738622455

2015-2019 didn't have ridiculously low interest rates as they did between 2020 and 2022.

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 12:04pm 1738623889

2015-2019 prices would provide a great opportunity for investors.

by Smudge02 | 4th Feb 25, 12:46pm 1738626386

Wow, I’ve got to admire your commitment to the cause.

by starrider | 4th Feb 25, 12:46pm 1738626414

Rookieinvestor =/= Masterspruiker

by Mr Ed | 4th Feb 25, 11:45am 1738622716

Angry from Mayfair 😊

by mfd | 4th Feb 25, 11:23am 1738621418

It's always good to be cautious with small, noisy data series.

The self-reflection is whether you are similarly cautious when the data supports your hypothesis and/or investment position.

by Chaosinflesh | 4th Feb 25, 12:47pm 1738626431

Asking price only gives an indication of sellers beliefs about the market.

Sale price tells us where the market actually is.

by SomeKiwiFounder | 4th Feb 25, 2:04pm 1738631061

Really living up to your name…

SKF

by nzlegofan | 4th Feb 25, 10:48am 1738619305

or what mix of properties were sold. The HPI is the only metric worth paying attention to

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 10:50am 1738619440

correct.

by KH | 4th Feb 25, 11:50am 1738623054

Median is still useful. At least better than average.

by Timutei | 4th Feb 25, 11:12am 1738620768

Only because there's a lack of data published on underlying trends on housing types. (regional figures ok)

HPI is like a stock market index

by Dgm | 4th Feb 25, 1:58pm 1738630691

The spruikers will invent something

by SomeKiwiFounder | 4th Feb 25, 2:27pm 1738632435

I wonder what they’ll say when the HPI is down?

“We’re heading into winter, it always slows down!”

”Look at the median prices in Christchurch!”

”Interest rates will be opening up FHBs!”

in any case, I’m sure the mental gymnastics will be olympian.

SKF

by Toye | 4th Feb 25, 11:41pm 1738665701

The barfoot prices will bounce back in February as they usually do (seasonal) but certainly wont erase the 130k loss so my forecast is that the spruikers will hold on to that dearly this time next month.

by nzlegofan | 4th Feb 25, 10:47am 1738619222

January's median selling price of $950,000 was down $50,000 (-5%) compared to December

Must be some healthy rounding going on with these stats.

by HGWR | 4th Feb 25, 10:52am 1738619526

Not necessarily, the median will always be an actual sale value and actual sales are quite often round numbers.

by nzlegofan | 4th Feb 25, 11:54am 1738623245

Good point

by Brocky | 4th Feb 25, 10:48am 1738619326

The desirability of Auckland property continues to deteriorate. Why?

by FOTC | 4th Feb 25, 11:07am 1738620473

More and more apartments and townhouses coming online which is driving down the average sale price I assume? Like for like property probably hasn't changed all that much. Just a guess.

by powerupkiwi | 4th Feb 25, 11:47am 1738622866

No chance these are independent markets. Prices change at the margin. The townhouses will be bringing down everything else

by ex socialist | 4th Feb 25, 12:11pm 1738624293

I wouldn't pick that. All of Auckland overpriced relative to rentals. Everybody thinks prices are falling other than theirs. The fundamental problem is that supply is overtaking demand

by KH | 4th Feb 25, 11:53am 1738623201

Auckland deteriorates. Why?

Because Auckland got more ridiculous than the others and is now just returning.

by Dgm | 4th Feb 25, 1:59pm 1738630780

It's sad, pathetic and overvalued

by Independent_Observer | 4th Feb 25, 11:00am 1738620048

I can recall one commentator on here warming repeatedly that unless FHB purchase before Xmas they will have missed this cycle and be locked out of the market. Be careful who you listen to.

Price could keep falling all this year with buying conditions improving for FHB as prices drop, interest rates drop a bit more (no expecting much more) and their deposits increase while more stock keeps coming into the market.

Don’t be quick. The best time to buy a house is not always yesterday. Sometimes patience does pay.

by Toye | 4th Feb 25, 11:01am 1738620068

Listening to spruikers is like listening to REAs.

Don't.

by JimboJones | 4th Feb 25, 11:04am 1738620268

I wouldn't listen to DGMs either.

by Brocky | 4th Feb 25, 11:10am 1738620617

Those who prophesised the demise of the property ponzi have been proven correct time and again.

It would be prudent to start listening.

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 11:15am 1738620912

It would be irresponsible to listen to anyone here.

by Brocky | 4th Feb 25, 11:30am 1738621850

There are some smart cookies here.

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 11:38am 1738622296

Yep no doubt about it, I still wouldn't solely listen to what they say without doing my own research and due diligence.

They might just expose me to something I'm not aware of.

by agnostium | 4th Feb 25, 1:07pm 1738627678

They might just expose me to something I'm not aware of.

Like reality?

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 1:29pm 1738628996

Conspiracy theorists.

Do not worry Agnostium, you're not one of the "Smart Cookies".

by agnostium | 4th Feb 25, 1:37pm 1738629456

😂

by kraken | 4th Feb 25, 2:22pm 1738632175

The NZ housing market is in free fall like Building 7.

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 2:51pm 1738633893

I actually think you are right about the way Homes is valuing suburbs by the way.....

I learnt a long while ago real value is what someone will pay you, many of these rookies have never tried to sell a house in a downturn, neither have many agents.

by agnostium | 4th Feb 25, 7:14pm 1738649641

Thanks ITGuy, I actually posted it for the benefit of the people that don't know how it works so they don't get suckered into paying more than they need to. Figure you know what you're doing already.

by rastus1 | 4th Feb 25, 3:50pm 1738637451

How does one due you due diligence to foresee a year of continued declines and new bottoms at every data release?

by JimboJones | 4th Feb 25, 12:02pm 1738623769

Many of them were only correct about 15 years later.

In almost all cases, house prices are still higher now than they were then they first started their prophecies.

by Chaosinflesh | 4th Feb 25, 12:55pm 1738626947

Is is actually impressive, even if perverse, how hard the government and RBNZ have worked to keep it going this long. Auckland was already recognized internationally as being in a bubble in 2006 - and the government allowed that to spread to the rest of the country.

Then again, when they recieve multiples more than the average earner, and own multiples more houses, it's not surprising.

MPs salaries should be indexed to other public servants - like teachers, police and nurses.

by RickStrauss | 4th Feb 25, 1:00pm 1738627241

MPs went all in speculating on property, and ran policy to support their investments. Latest iteration being our present PM.

Our housing crisis is a moral one before a policy one.

by ThoughtsAndTorts | 4th Feb 25, 2:31pm 1738632717

Aussie politicians are the same.

Just became illegal to trade stocks for US politicians (or in progress), worth considering if we should have similar rules and maybe even around property investment....

by Brocky | 4th Feb 25, 1:15pm 1738628156

The collapse isn't over yet.

by Dgm | 4th Feb 25, 2:00pm 1738630850

Listening to spruikers is like Listening to the devil welcoming you to hell

by Yvil | 4th Feb 25, 11:03am 1738620189

Barfoot's average selling price in January was $1,053,446, down $133,016 (-11.2%) compared to December, which was the lowest it has been in any month of the year since October 2020.

Ouch, thats a huge drop ! Will be interesting to see if the HPI confirms this.

by Thinker | 4th Feb 25, 11:10am 1738620622

I reckon waiting until April's figures including February and March before identifying a trend. Typically is the 2nd busiest time of the year so good indicator of future months.

by KH | 4th Feb 25, 11:56am 1738623362

True thinker. But I also listen a bit - a bit -to any indication like this.

by Nifty1 | 4th Feb 25, 12:03pm 1738623825

Last week was hard for DGMs on interest, this article has put a spring back in their shuffling step though... they love their averages if it show house prices dropping.

by Independent_Observer | 4th Feb 25, 1:09pm 1738627798

In the bible it says to love thy enemy. Perhaps to find peace Nifty you could trying sending love to those you disagre with instead of sending hate towards them in nearly every comment on this forum (DGM this..DGM that…DGMs are wrong…DGMs won’t like this).

I’ll send you my love via this forum and hope you find peace in a world full of doom gloom merchants who want an affordable housing for themselves or for their children.

by Nifty1 | 4th Feb 25, 2:17pm 1738631831

Are you on the right website I/O? This isn't christiansingles.com

by Independent_Observer | 4th Feb 25, 5:46pm 1738644370

I see that your only way of responding is to try to offend or to ridicule.

Each to their own - we each reap what we sow. I found (from experience in my younger years) that ridiculing people had a tendency of backfiring in me in the long run (even after the initial sugar hit of feeling superior to the other person momentarily).

by SomeKiwiFounder | 4th Feb 25, 2:30pm 1738632629

The last week was filled with speculation and opinion, the same kind I’ve been seeing for years on here, today the data is showing the reality that has been.

SKF

by earnedincome | 4th Feb 25, 11:15am 1738620947

Second leg down I'd say. Recovery is still a long way off with no obvious reason for one in sight.

Is anyone involved in policy doing any actual research and analysis to prepare NZ for the possibility of further dramatic falls? Or is 'talking up the market' just too important?

Any genuine ideas here for what we might do if confronted with the kind of past falls seen in Ireland, Japan, Spain, etc? Some kind of policy to protect homeowners without necessarily bailing out investors and speculators for example?

by Frank. | 4th Feb 25, 11:27am 1738621622

Yes I am involved in actual research and analysis. To remedy pretty much all the issues NZ is experiencing, it is all pointing towards an abolishment of central government and compulsory euthanasia at 70.

by K.W. | 4th Feb 25, 12:21pm 1738624905

Could I suggest that you just give them a one way ticket to Australia Those that can afford to live there without a pension can leave. Then euthanise the rest.

by The Man3 | 4th Feb 25, 1:00pm 1738627246

Australian house prices are far dearer than NZ in the cities.

If you want to live in undesirable places then you will buy better.

by agnostium | 4th Feb 25, 1:09pm 1738627788

Nah, they're not. Like for like Aussie is not as expensive as here.

by Chaosinflesh | 4th Feb 25, 1:39pm 1738629588

Without comparison of type: by the numbers he's mostly right.

Oz median is ~10k higher than NZ, and average ~40k.

But I only say mostly right because these numbers are only nominally 1-4% dearer, which doesn't make them "much" more expensive.

But take incomes into account, and the type of property, and Oz is much cheaper. (Their median earner would be in our upper quartile).

They only seem more expensive to someone locked onto a NZ-earnings perspective.

by The Man3 | 4th Feb 25, 1:52pm 1738630343

They are far dearer in the Cities than NZ without doubt.

Australia obviously much larger and the ones in the wop wops drag the average down majorly.

For example, you can buy an apartment in NZ city for 700k or less, go to Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane and you will be paying a million plus unless you are miles out.

At the end of the day if you think things are better in Oz, then go and check it out.

The Ozzies are all complaining about everything over there you only have to watch Sky News Australia.

On average they are paying on average $50k more interest than they were previously, so you have to gross $70k more be in the same position.

by Chaosinflesh | 4th Feb 25, 3:03pm 1738634589

if you think things are better in Oz, then go and check it out.

I did, and it is :) posted comment on 17th Jan morning brief (our 1 year migration anniversary) detailing our experience thus far.

by Te Kooti | 4th Feb 25, 3:03pm 1738634621

Australia is many multiples more expensive than NZ. Yes, there are "cheaper" houses on the city fringes however those neighbourhoods make Pokeno look like St Helliers. 50km out of town, 50c in summer, 5c in winter, toll roads, schools I wouldn't send my kids to.

You want anything like a reasonable commute to a beach and a decent school and cosmopolitan lifestyle, you need $3m+

by RickStrauss | 4th Feb 25, 3:43pm 1738636988

Huh. A cursory google shows a 3brm 716sqm house 9km from Brisbane CBD for $1.1 million. And a 5brm house on 630sqm of land 19.8km from the CBD for $888,000. So still significantly better than Auckland, not many multiples more expensive than NZ and "cheaper" on the city fringes.

We lost some talented staff to Brisbane over the last few years, moved over and bought nice houses at a better equation than Auckland.

by Chairman Moa | 4th Feb 25, 4:15pm 1738638927

Te Kooti,

Actually we are moving into a smaller home and just sold our house in Brisbane. Excellent schools zone, 4km from Brisbane CBD, literally 5 mins walk to Brisbane's biggest and best hospital, university nearby. All we got was just over 1mil for 2 br and study, 500sqm land. I wish I could have sold it for 3+ mil.

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 4:25pm 1738639510

over 1 mil for 2 bedroom and study, geez....

by Chairman Moa | 4th Feb 25, 9:38pm 1738658319

4km from CBD, similar distance to Grey Lynn, Greenlane, Newmarket, Newton. Now how much for a 2br for those area on 500 sqm?

by ghytresd | 4th Feb 25, 4:37pm 1738640225

I'd recommend not watching sky news Australia

by Mystery | 4th Feb 25, 3:29pm 1738636177

AUD vs NZD makes Aus property slightly more expensive too for NZers (+ Stamp duty tax makes their prices more expensive too)

by agnostium | 4th Feb 25, 7:17pm 1738649866

You also need to take into account the access to jobs, amenities, and opportunities, the build quality of Aussie and the transport system - which all factor into like for like.

Aussie beats NZ hands down for affordability.

by The Man3 | 4th Feb 25, 11:47pm 1738666042

You are talking untruths.

Go and talk to the Kiwis that lived there and are now back in NZ.

You are deluded if you believe that city living is cheaper in Oz.

People with mortgages or are renting in Oz are struggling big time with homelessness over there for huge numbers.

Anyway, pointless debating it with people that think they know what they are talking about, and don’t..

by agnostium | 5th Feb 25, 12:08am 1738667311

I have lived in Australia and have quite a few friends who have moved over more recently. Australia like for like is more affordable than NZ.

by ex agent | 5th Feb 25, 8:15am 1738696556

My neighbours daughter comes home to NZ from Australia regularly to visit her elderly mother. She cannot believe how expensive it is to live here, especially the higher cost of food. And how poorly paid New Zealanders are. Not everyone who goes there makes a go of it. You came back.

by RookieInvestor | 5th Feb 25, 8:37am 1738697871

I also know a guy who knows a guy's uncle that said.... great anecdote.

Here are 3 sources that say otherwise.

https://livingcost.org/cost/australia/new-zealand

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_result.jsp?country1=Australia&country2=New+Zealand

https://www.upmove.com.au/post/new-zealand-vs-australia#:~:text=Which%20is%20cheaper%20%2D%20Aus%20or,expensive%20countries%20in%20the%20world.

I think what people are referring to is more opportunity, opportunity for much higher wage and thus these "stories" (because that's all it is) of neighbours daughters.

by ex agent | 5th Feb 25, 9:52am 1738702345

You are right. Much higher wages and salaries so the average Australian copes better than us with the cost of living.

by interesting1234 | 5th Feb 25, 3:01pm 1738720903

Also higher average temperatures leading to less insulation needed in homes in aggregate and thus lower build cost.

by DitchSkipper | 5th Feb 25, 4:34pm 1738726471

I'm Australian, from Melbourne, I live in Tauranga, I earn less than half what I did in Australia for the same job, and our house here was more expensive than our place in Melbourne (9km from CBD) and it has one less bedroom. Stop telling porky pies.

by Chairman Moa | 4th Feb 25, 1:47pm 1738630045

@ The Man 3. The thing is you can't compare Auckland vs Sydney for lifestyle and house prices.

Auckland is nowhere like Sydney. It should be Auckland vs Adelaide for similar population. Or at a stretch, Auckland vs Brisbane.

by The Man3 | 4th Feb 25, 1:56pm 1738630590

Of course you can not compare Auckland with Sydney for lifestyle and I have been saying for ages that Auckland is not a place to live for a good lifestyle.

The thing is that people that live in Auckland believe that it is so good when things have definitely deteriorated over the last decade or so.

I do not see Auckland as the measurement of the prices of houses in NZ as we all know that is not what they crack it up to be.

by agnostium | 5th Feb 25, 12:09am 1738667381

I'll take that back, as I don't think Christchurch is a shithole.

by armin-t | 4th Feb 25, 2:10pm 1738631424

A massive stretch, people keep thinking our cities are comparative to Australia's, when they are not even close in scale. Brisbane has a population of 2.7m and a GDP (2017 as that was the easily available figure) of 177 billion. Auckland has 1.7m and with a GDP (2017) of 101.4 billion.

by K.W. | 5th Feb 25, 11:44am 1738709093

I am actively in the market for an Australian house, so I am well aware of housing costs there. Lets say I sell my Christchurch house for $2m - for about $1.3M I can buy an equivalent home in an equivalent suburb on the Gold Coast (which is the second most expensive property market in Australia after Sydney). For $2M I could buy a monster mansion directly on the waterfront with a private jetty to moor the boat and a swimming pool.

As it is, I'll be looking for a $2M 3 bedroom apartment not a house. The kind of apartments that NZ doesnt even have - waterfront, direct beach access, private marina, three swimming pools, spa/sauna, tennis court, lawns and gardens .... and if they did exist in NZ, they would be a lot more than $2M.

Melbourne is still pretty cheap, and getting cheaper by the minute. Here's one in Melbourne 9km from the CBD - 3 bed, 2 bath, fully renovated, standalone, under $1M

https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-maribyrnong-146956776

The idea that Australian houses are more expensive than NZ is a joke. They are not, and you get a far superior house for your money over there.

by Zabman | 4th Feb 25, 12:13pm 1738624391

comment of the day so far! While I wouldn't say those types of falls are a given, knowing our policy makers are prepared for that possibility would be great.

How could you fairly handle homeowners and investors seperately?

by RickStrauss | 4th Feb 25, 12:35pm 1738625704

One of the Aussie parties had an interesting monetary proposal for this. If more welfare must be handed out, they suggested it was important to avoid it simply being more welfare to property. Thus, the proposal was something along these lines:

An equal lump sum to every adult, in specific formats / conditions on purpose. E.g. let's say $100k. Created by the usual money printers.
For property owners, this would be immediately applied to reduce the debt on their property.
For renters / non-owners, this would be - if I remember correctly - in the form of some government bond or other. Something along these lines.

The details are hazy, I'd have to search it out again, but they essentially trying to avoid the massive welfare wealth transfer that occurred through FLP and similar over COVID (shoveling $10 billion of taxpayer money at property, reducing the value of wages and savings). They were aiming to benefit all not just property owners, and to use the money printing to at the same time reduce the amount of debt and cancel that money back out of circulation...The details in my memory are very sketchy, unfortunately.

by Puddleduck | 4th Feb 25, 2:59pm 1738634396

Interesting. I like the even-handed approach for property owners and non-property owners.

by RickStrauss | 4th Feb 25, 3:44pm 1738637044

Yes, and per person not per property. A nice approach.

by rastus1 | 4th Feb 25, 3:58pm 1738637882

That would be Steve Keen. A kind of debt relief programme. A QE for the people. Personal debt relief, helps household's, stimulates spending.

by spacecadet | 4th Feb 25, 12:38pm 1738625910

What happened to the govt bank deposit insurance scheme? Did National scrap that or is that still coming?

by Eschaton | 4th Feb 25, 12:52pm 1738626770

Ban pornography.

by sgtshortcut | 4th Feb 25, 2:17pm 1738631857

I’d say that for a fair few regular commentators on here articles like this is their porn 😂

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 3:10pm 1738635059

Barfoots numbers do have a certain money shot feeling about them....

I can see this be coming a series

by Squishy | 4th Feb 25, 11:27am 1738621669

Anyone want to buy my rental liability?

by K.W. | 4th Feb 25, 12:24pm 1738625060

After the GFC an American friend of mine got divorced. She had to pay her ex husband $45,000 to agree to KEEP the house (with mortgage) and not sell it. It was so deep in negative equity that any sale would have resulted in both of them ending up bankrupt.

by Smudge02 | 4th Feb 25, 11:35am 1738622113

Fantastic news.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 4th Feb 25, 11:38am 1738622331

Back to the pre-Covid flatline? ... [read that again. use the graphs at the bottom of the article.]

Good.

And thanks to wage increases between 2019 and now ... Just a tad more 'affordable' from pre-covid to boot.

by Mr Ed | 4th Feb 25, 11:39am 1738622367

We are all doomed Captain Mainwaring

by DitchSkipper | 4th Feb 25, 11:40am 1738622425

As the superbly talented Jenny Morris once sang, "It's only the beginning......."

by The Man3 | 4th Feb 25, 11:42am 1738622567

Reality is that the prices are still well out of kilter for affordability and value for what you are getting in Auckland and has been fir a long time.

Just doesnt make sense to be paying Auckland prices inflated by immigration .

Posters continue to go on about dropping housing prices but far from the truth in the happiest city in Nz, Christchurch.

by ex agent | 4th Feb 25, 11:56am 1738623407

You sound so desperate just like Rookie.

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 12:00pm 1738623644

great contribution.

/sarc

ask your grandson what /sarc means.

by The Man3 | 4th Feb 25, 1:04pm 1738627475

Ex Agent, quite the opposite, housing investment doing well and providing accommodation to those that require it.

Putting money into Term Deposits is just aiding Banks to lend out to more investors.

by RickStrauss | 4th Feb 25, 1:20pm 1738628417

Saintly. But for landlords, those houses would simply disappear from existence.

by SomeKiwiFounder | 4th Feb 25, 2:08pm 1738631321

Did you build the houses?

by interesting1234 | 4th Feb 25, 2:28pm 1738632519

Clearly you don't know that the bank lends money into existence with the approval of the RBNZ. Peoples deposits mean naught but SOME security for any black swan event leading to a bank run.

by powerupkiwi | 4th Feb 25, 12:19pm 1738624750

Nah. Chch follows at a lag (caused by the post-earthquake supply surge). It’ll be down this year.

by The Man3 | 4th Feb 25, 1:09pm 1738627790

It will not be for houses in ChCh, prices will rise.

Yes apartments will struggle but people want to live in ChCh and get away from the over populated Auckland and the major issues it now has.

by powerupkiwi | 4th Feb 25, 3:13pm 1738635228

Nah. The economic opportunities in chch don’t compare.

There was just movement in that direction when Auckland prices exploded and chch still had slack because of the new areas out west/post quake exodus. That’s all over.

The agents seem desperate at the open homes there now.

by The Man3 | 4th Feb 25, 7:13pm 1738649591

I do not see too many desperate real estate sakes people in ChCh.

It has a big turnover of sales people, always had over the past few decades.

Lets just wait and see what the sales figures are for Christchurch and there are still plenty of experienced established investors.

by Chairman Moa | 4th Feb 25, 11:46am 1738622761

Time to head to that River..

I miss him!

by morphyoss | 4th Feb 25, 11:48am 1738622915

Well, looks we've crashed through yet another floor. Lol. Do any of the 'economists' have even a shred of credibility left now?

by Nifty1 | 4th Feb 25, 11:51am 1738623064

Buy the dip?

by KH | 4th Feb 25, 11:58am 1738623497

Or buy the on downward slide.

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 12:10pm 1738624204

Yes at the bottom Nifty1..... I will tell you when I think we are there.

Do a 3month rolling average of a decent data set (weighted or not, maybe your desired quartile medium or just HPI medium), if its positive for 6 months in a row, its a good sign. Using technical analysis can help take the emotion out of trading.

Then access current taxation and regulation to determine what the recovery will possibly look like.

Also access if you are better buying in an offshore market.

Property has done well, perhaps its not time to chase the dragon.

by K.W. | 4th Feb 25, 12:13pm 1738624428

July 23 to May 24 is known as a "dead cat bounce" in financial market terms. Meouw.

by John Mendel | 4th Feb 25, 12:55pm 1738626935

So many townhouses for sale in my area (Torbay/Long bay)

by MikeM | 4th Feb 25, 1:02pm 1738627326

It's OK everyone. MSM tells us to survive til 25 and it will all be tikiti boo again.

by Independent_Observer | 4th Feb 25, 1:16pm 1738628188

Yield curve only started normalising second half of last year so didn’t really agree with survive till 25. Was more thinking stay alive in 25 (financially).

by Slapheid | 4th Feb 25, 1:11pm 1738627890

Imagine how much worse these stats would be without the ongoing price boom in Riverhead...

by nzlegofan | 4th Feb 25, 1:51pm 1738630269

RIP wingman

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 3:17pm 1738635450

I never saw his wings clipped, but knew he would not last, the rookie lost it with me and the secret censor removed it....

The issue with many of the Spruikers is thats all they do, they never have an opinion on other matters on this site, which are equally important to social harmony in NZ.

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 3:30pm 1738636215

The "secret censor" removed your comment also, don't forget that part.

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 3:51pm 1738637511

That's because I copied in your post and he did not like the swearing.....

You need to respect people who have made millions from property and business and not just dis them as they do not hold the same view as you right now.... or you will not become an AccomplishedInvestor

by RookieInvestor | 4th Feb 25, 4:03pm 1738638235

Respect Me!

I respect people who deserve it, not who demand it.

But you're not wrong, there are a few here with opinions that counter mine... that I do respect.

Just because i dis, does not mean i dismiss.

by NZGecko | 4th Feb 25, 1:59pm 1738630789

2013 to 2015 Prices are coming into fashion again..... in late 2025, 2026 and 2027.

Buyers should WAIT. Buyers offer no more than the 2015 Valuations and Less!

by observer | 4th Feb 25, 2:31pm 1738632690

This is good news.

All we need now to make housing truly affordable is to impose CGT only on houses, including the family home.

by Toye | 4th Feb 25, 2:31pm 1738632700

Wellington CVs down 24%. It's a massacre today.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/wellington-city-property-valuations-plumm…

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 3:13pm 1738635214

This just gets betterer and betterer

by CN - new | 4th Feb 25, 3:17pm 1738635433

Also interesting:

"Commercial property values have decreased on average by 21%."

by K.W. | 5th Feb 25, 11:15am 1738707326

Nobody wants to buy commercial property in Wellington. Too many work-from-homers and EQ strengthening costs. Its one of the reasons why Wellington is slowly turning into a ghost city.

by Nzdan | 4th Feb 25, 6:15pm 1738646145

Just wait for the flurry of MSM and Facebook comments asking why their rates bill hasn't dropped.

by earnedincome | 4th Feb 25, 6:24pm 1738646669

Average land value down 36.7%

by agnostium | 4th Feb 25, 7:46pm 1738651574

Real estate spruiker's advice to buyers to ignore CV

He advised buyers and sellers to look at comparable homes which had recently sold in the same area to get a better idea of property value

Where is that information found? Homes - paid for by real estate agents for real estate agents. But definitely manipulated by them in any way. /Sarc

by rastus1 | 4th Feb 25, 4:13pm 1738638799

It will be interesting times times when at re-finance times the equity has reduced to an un-acceptable level.

And that little surprise that mortgage fraud brings has yet to raise it's ugly and inevitable head.

This will be a year to remember.

by NZGecko | 4th Feb 25, 4:25pm 1738639508

The rampant Morgage Brokers "sort of fraud".........jacking up the Leveraged punters earnings, 5x boarders, 3x working dogs, the goldfishes Youtube channel earnings, the 3-year-old sons paper run......... The Fraud going on over the last 5 years will be an eyeopener!

by rastus1 | 4th Feb 25, 4:35pm 1738640142

All we need is msd to pick up on the 6 individual accommodation supplements going into one home.

by Nzdan | 4th Feb 25, 6:30pm 1738647008

I suppose you're referring to investment property portfolios with cross collateralization/equity leverage debt stacking and that paper security has since dried up?

Potential for stories of disgruntled old Landlords just "trying to provide an honest roof" being sent a letter demanding partial repayment or selling a property. Or investors excitedly selling one property for a profit (with the debt "loaded" against other properties) and the bank initiating their right to set off those gains against the other debts.

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 7:45pm 1738651506

Have seen this happen

by Chaosinflesh | 4th Feb 25, 7:51pm 1738651880

Atm they're sending out "please raise your rent" letters. No joke.

by Averageman | 4th Feb 25, 7:52pm 1738651967

Well within rights to shorten their risk. If banks start tightening the noose on the defaulters, it's all on for ponzi deflation.

by stefanblaise | 4th Feb 25, 4:17pm 1738639035

Its plunging lower than Bianca Censori's Red Carpet neckline.

by kraken | 4th Feb 25, 5:44pm 1738644294

Is this why luxon was selling last year?

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 6:18pm 1738646285

no no no, he just saw ... other opportunities...

by NZGecko | 4th Feb 25, 6:26pm 1738646800

Ole Luxo knows the score with the Housing trade turning sourer, by the day.

Aided by his Housing Minister, breaking the normally tight left/right taboo, of saying "to have the housing prices falling is a wanted and good thing".

My O My, the Spruikers have no friends left......as this risky business burns off the leveraged, like Guido Fawkes on a pile of dry sticks.

by agnostium | 4th Feb 25, 7:47pm 1738651621

Luxon priorities

Change the law to remove the obligation to pay CGT.
Immediately sell property that would otherwise have been subject to CGT.

A Trumpesque grift, just like the getting the public to pay for his rent in his own rental and getting his wife to claim the Tesla subsidy.

What a leader.

by Averageman | 4th Feb 25, 7:59pm 1738652349

Leadership....he showed that reducing ponzi exposure was smart. How many didn't take note....not smart.

by K.W. | 5th Feb 25, 11:12am 1738707131

(a) since he already owned the properties prior to the change in Brightline rules, he never would have been subject to tax on sale anyway.

(b) why would someone give up a $4 million a year salary to become PM if all he was worried about was saving a few bucks on tax?

Hot tip - rich people are not bothered by trivial things like Brightline taxes or car subsidies. Sure, if they are available they will take them, but its not a big deal if they dont.

Its like thinking rich people will come back to NZ in order to claim their pension. Complete joke. Poor people need to understand the rich are not obsessed over such trivialities.

by chris14679 | 4th Feb 25, 6:57pm 1738648642

Fun fact - NZ real house prices are now at the lowest they've been since the early 1980s (Priced in Gold, not in NZ dollars). They just fell below the 2011 low of 179 ounces of gold.

In NZ dollars, gold is up 50% in the last year!

Next target is the low which occurred in the 1980s.NZ house prices in gold need to halve to equal that. Will gold double or house prices halve? I think a bit of both.

House prices in gold have always stayed about the same on average for over 100 years. Always remember that it's not prices going up, it's the NZ dollar (and all other currencies) all falling in value.

Strategy idea: Bitcoin bubble is peaking now, sell bitcoin, buy real gold, wait until NZ house prices dip below 100 ounces of gold then sell half the gold, buy houses.

by kraken | 4th Feb 25, 6:57pm 1738648661

And we are off to the races! ( in backwards land )

by kraken | 4th Feb 25, 6:59pm 1738648797

Trying to push the comments up to 200, it's been way too quiet from the spruikers.

by NZGecko | 4th Feb 25, 7:11pm 1738649506

The Spruikers and TTP Real Estate, scalping scoundrel crowd, are huddled in a support group meeting.......strategising the new "bottoms in" talking points with Tony Spriukuzander.....

by Averageman | 4th Feb 25, 7:01pm 1738648909

Down down down in ponzi town...Burn speculand burn.

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 7:48pm 1738651693

I have a feeling that Auckland CVs are going to drop a bit....

by kraken | 4th Feb 25, 8:28pm 1738654087

Back to 2017 would be a good start.

by kraken | 4th Feb 25, 7:49pm 1738651778

Stunning properties, nothing wrong with these but all passed in today. First one CV 3.4m, opened at 2.6m, no bid.

https://www.youtube.com/live/QEojsPY9bnU

by Chaosinflesh | 4th Feb 25, 8:06pm 1738652772

"If the leading bid stalls below reserve we will encourage you to raise your bid".

Or the vendor could accept market price.

(To be real, I always encourage people to walk away - both buyer or and seller - if they're not happy with the deal)

by kraken | 4th Feb 25, 8:37pm 1738654636

"Or the vendor could accept market price."

You'd be brave to auction with a $1 reserve in this market.

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 8:38pm 1738654701

Bidding against yourself is madness, it undermines your ability to negotiate after the auction the best possible price, as it declares you are prepared to pay more then you need to disclose.

by CN - new | 4th Feb 25, 10:22pm 1738660960

"Or the vendor could accept market price."

Vendors have price expectations above reasonable market levels, likely strongly influenced by real estate agent's current market appraisal given to vendors in order to win the listing. Then real estate agents can't find buyers at that valuation. One way that vendors revisit their price expectations is the absence of offers at the vendor's asking price after a few months.

by IT GUY | 4th Feb 25, 9:47pm 1738658841

Just spray and WALK AWAY!

by NinaK@interest | 4th Feb 25, 9:23pm 1738657398

I predict a housing death spiral. $360 billion in private debt and rising. A Ponzi scheme in some ways. I am a buyer and I am waiting for a year or two longer before I think about it. Vendors are panicking. They need to be realistic. After the 87 fiasco house prices fell for around 5 years.